Wrong Again About Iraq: Invasion Has Not Sparked Larger ‘Democratic Revolution’ in the Middle East
Wrong Again About Iraq: Invasion Has Not Sparked Larger ‘Democratic Revolution’ in the Middle East
Both before and after the Iraq invasion, President Bush predicted that Saddam’s fall would lead to democracy flourishing throughout the Middle East:
A liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region, by bringing hope and progress into the lives of millions. [2/26/03]
Iraqi democracy will succeed – and that success will send forth the news, from Damascus to Teheran – that freedom can be the future of every nation. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution. [11/6/03]
And the advance of freedom in the Middle East requires freedom in Iraq. By helping Iraqis build a lasting democracy, we will spread the hope of liberty across a troubled region, and we’ll gain new allies in the cause of freedom. [12/12/05]
But as has been the case with other administration forecasts about the Iraq war and its aftermath, the prediction of a subsequent “global democratic revolution” was overly optimistic.
“Steps toward democracy in the Arab world,†the New York Times reports today, “are slowing, blocked by legal maneuvers and official changes of heart throughout the Middle East.†The New York Times provides several specific examples:
- “In Egypt, the government of President Hosni Mubarak, which allowed a contested presidential election last year, has delayed municipal elections by two years after the Muslim Brotherhood made big gains in parliamentary elections late last year, despite the government’s violent efforts to stop the group’s supporters.â€
- “In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah has refused calls that the country’s consultative council be elected, while the arrest last month of Muhsin al-Awaji, a government critic, raised questions about how far the country’s newfound openness would go.â€
- “In Jordan, where King Abdullah II has made political change and democratization mandates, proponents see their hand weakened, with a document advocating change put on the back burner.â€
- “Parliamentary elections in Qatar were postponed again, to 2007, while advocacy groups say that laws regulating the emergence of nongovernmental organizations have stymied their development.â€
- “In Yemen, the government has cracked down on the news media ahead of presidential elections this year, intimidating journalists who had been considered overcritical of the government.â€
- “In Bahrain, where sectarian tensions between the majority Shiite population and the Sunni-dominated government prevail, a flurry of official maneuvers apparently intended to reduce the Shiite vote has preceded the municipal and parliamentary elections expected this year.â€
- “And in Syria, promises for reforms have been followed by a harsh crackdown on the opposition.â€
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I wish Bush considered the United States a “vital region.”
April 10th, 2006 at 8:00 pmIt would be like a Cannibal cabal conquering America, turning us into Canabals and then being surprised when Canada and Mexico didn’t voluntarily follow suit… Only this is no analogy. Bush is a Canabal.
April 10th, 2006 at 8:05 pmCannibal?
April 10th, 2006 at 8:06 pmHaven’t they been wrong about everything? That means they’re batting a thousand.
April 10th, 2006 at 8:48 pmIsn’t that the way Orwell would have put in 1984?
The Iraq war/occupation was always about OIL and not freedom/democracy for Iraq’s people! That is why the whole thing has turned into a complete fiasco/debacle quagmire! Shame on Bush and Cheney > RESIGN!
April 10th, 2006 at 8:48 pmI can smell the Koolaid farts all the way from over here.
Sorry Assclowns of the Week is late. I’ve been kinda under the gun lately. Please forgive any errors. Thanks.
April 10th, 2006 at 8:56 pmI would contend that Bush is *not wrong* in his past belief that democracy would spread in the middle east. The problem for him, though, is that the democracy he wants is *not* the democracy he will get.
The democracy he yearns for is a kind that bows to the U.S. and is secular to a greater degree. What he has ignored is that through decades of (tacitly US endorsed) opression the populations turned to religous leaders/Islam and militant groups.
My point that there is democracy: HAMAS. They won because of their social works, which many militant groups perform either directly or through surrogates. Hamas, it should be remembered, emerged from the Brotherhood which is a *big* player in Egypt.
So…the people vote in the least corrupt party (Hamas is pretty squeaky) that has actually helped them and we cut off all their funding.
Wooo! The only people that get money from us and our ‘allies’ are kleptocratic dictators who water down gasoline, keep state funds in personal accounts, and institute corruption as a source of civil servants income.
Democracy may not be of the kind you wish for. Apparently someone thought that they would somehow fall in love with ideals (and a country) that they either reject or despise.
April 10th, 2006 at 9:13 pm” Some of you are going to die
April 10th, 2006 at 9:23 pmSuch is the price of the freedom
That I shall provide”.
#8
$10 for an RPG is the grendade itself, not the launcher which is implied but might be misundersood. You would also need to test that $10 grenade to make sure the propellent is not old enough that its solid fuel has begun to decompose/become unstable. It’s better to blow up something else than yourself when using an rpg.
Getting a RPG into the US isn’t hard. But you don’t need to buy a $10 RPG Soviet era copy in Africa and ship it to the US. You can make your own here.
RPGs are not something extraordinarily special. There is a launcher to be made as well as a grenade. The launcher is rather simple. None of the kinds used in Iraq are sophisticated – they are point and shoot devices that lack electronic aiming of any sort. It’s sight based – sights.
The grenade casing itself would be easy to construct for anyone familiar with high powered amateur rocketry. All the necessary solid fuel ingredients are available for sale on the internet and are very stable once completed and safe enough to work with.
Of course, that’s just a rocket (it also happens to be legal).
To create something like an RPG (these are really simple munitions – the most complex part is the solid fuel) you would need to figure out what you size RPG casing you want/need for your thrust level given a certain payload. You would need a detonator. And you would need explosives.
Homegrown terrorism is really a great danger. Even a muslim terrorist group would probably stick to building weapons in their apartments in the US rather than risk importing them.
So:
US Fundie Terrorist RPG: welding skills and ability to read needed. Stupidity a plus.
I think you miss the point though – RPGs are not *that* dangerous because the time involved is not worth the ‘reward’ relative to alternatives. That alternative would be a truck bomb using fertilizer and fuel. If you were really motivated you could make yourself something better.
All this garbage is on the internet. Most of it should not be done (alot of the ‘guides’ are inaccurate in that you could lose fingures because the labprocedures they espouse or even incorrect combination would be catastrophic personally).
All that aside, high powered amateur rocketry is a hell of a lot of fun.
April 10th, 2006 at 9:25 pm#9
April 10th, 2006 at 9:27 pmIt’s just lovely how he compares the Iraqi ’struggle for freedom’ to the American Revolution isn’t it?
#9
It’s just lovely how he compares the Iraqi ’struggle for freedom’ to the American Revolution isn’t it?
Well, how about this one: Bush: “The Iraqis struggle for freedom is somewhat like, umm what’s that war, oh yah the Civil War. Hey Dick, who gets to play the South? Are the Kurds like the British who are only in the background. Ah, the hell with it. We’ll let them deal with it”.
This is one sad story. And it gets worse.
April 10th, 2006 at 9:29 pm#9
It’s just lovely how he compares the Iraqi ’struggle for freedom’ to the American Revolution isn’t it?
Well, how about this one: Bush: “The Iraqis struggle for freedom is somewhat like, umm what’s that war, oh yah the Civil War. Hey Dick, who gets to play the South? Are the Kurds like the British who are only in the background. Ah, the hell with it. We’ll let them deal with it”.
This is one sad story that becomes worse everyday.
April 10th, 2006 at 9:30 pmSorry for the double posts, wireless died on me but apparently stayed alive just a little bit:)
April 10th, 2006 at 9:31 pmCan Democracy Stop Terrorism?
F. Gregory Gause III
From Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005
Summary: The Bush administration contends that the push for democracy in the Muslim world will improve U.S. security. But this premise is faulty: there is no evidence that democracy reduces terrorism. Indeed, a democratic Middle East would probably result in Islamist governments unwilling to cooperate with Washington.
April 10th, 2006 at 9:33 pmBeware of What You Wish For
F. Gregory Gause III
From foreignaffairs.org – author update, February 8, 2006
As I recently argued in Foreign Affairs (”Can Democracy Stop Terrorism?”, September/October 2005), however, Bush’s logic is flawed. There is no evidence that states ruled by dictators produce more terrorists or more terrorism than democracies. Moreover, al Qaeda and its affiliates and imitators see democracy as a Western innovation leading Muslims away from government based on Islamic law. They would certainly not give up their jihad even if all Muslim countries became democratic, particularly if the democracies proved to be the kind that the United States would like to see: tolerant, pluralist, pro-American, and at peace with Israel.
In my original article, I also predicted that the administration’s emphasis on elections as the measure of success for its democratization policy was likely to produce victories for Islamist political groups, the best organized and most popular political movements in most countries in the region. Election results since then have followed just such a pattern:
* Nearly two-thirds of candidates elected to the new Iraqi parliament in December 2005 won on platforms that explicitly called for a greater role for Islam in politics. Among the 215 Arab parliamentarians elected (the others being Kurds and smaller minority group representatives), 81 percent campaigned on lists that were sectarian and Islamist, while only 9 percent came from former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s explicitly secular, non-sectarian, and multiethnic Iraqi National List.
* In Egypt’s parliamentary elections in November and December 2005, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood won 88 seats, 20 percent of the 444 elected seats despite progressively greater government interference over the three rounds of balloting. That figure understates the significance of the Brotherhood’s showing. The group had fielded only about 150 candidates as part of a tacit agreement with the government that allowed Brotherhood candidates to campaign openly, and so it won almost 60 percent of the seats it contested. Liberal, leftist, and nationalist opposition parties won a paltry 11 seats, fewer than 3 percent of the total.
* And in the January 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections, Hamas–the political wing of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood–won a stunning victory against the long-dominant Fatah, the Palestinian nationalist movement founded by Yasir Arafat. Hamas carried 56 percent of the seats against Fatah’s 34 percent and 7 percent for liberal, leftist, and other nationalist parties.
In the wake of such clear evidence of political strength of Islamists, many supporters of the administration’s policy to encourage democracy in the Muslim Middle East called for U.S. policies to strengthen non-Islamist opposition forces. (I had made similar noises in my original article.) But the problem with this strategy, as Jon Alterman, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has cogently argued (http://www.policyreview.org/jun04/alterman.html), is that the liberal-leftist-nationalist opposition in the Arab world is a weak reed on which to rest U.S. hopes. The results of the elections in Egypt, Iraq, and the Palestinian Authority support Alterman’s thesis. True, in Egypt, the government has disproportionately harassed more liberal groups, thereby allowing the Islamists to dominate opposition. But secular nationalists in Iraq faced the same challenges and opportunities as other lists, and they still did not perform well. And Palestinian civil society is probably the most robust in the Arab world, boasting numerous social and political organizations (many funded by Western governments and foundations) and an atmosphere of relative political freedom. Yet Islamists now dominate there. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the non-Islamist opposition groups in Arab countries are selling something that voters are just not buying.
The United States should indeed use its influence with Arab leaders to get them to open up more space for non-Islamist opposition groups. But Washington should not expect quick improvement in the groups’ political fortunes, nor should it expect non-Islamist opposition groups to support U.S. foreign policy goals; these days, most of them are as critical of Washington as the Islamists. The United States must face the fact that, for the foreseeable future, free elections in the Arab world will empower Islamists and produce governments that are much less likely to accept U.S. foreign policy goals than the current authoritarian regimes.
So what should Washington do with its democratization policy? One option would be to scrap it altogether, recognizing that the United States’ knowledge of these societies is extremely limited and its ability to shape their domestic politics is next to nil. (That would be my preference, both on practical grounds and on the general principle that we should avoid interference in others’ domestic affairs.) Yet given the widespread belief that authoritarian governments produce anti-American terrorism, it is highly unlikely that any administration would adopt such a hands-off policy.
So, since the United States is destined to continue promoting more participatory politics in the Muslim Middle East, it should at least be smarter about it, focusing on liberalization rather than democratization. This would mean easing up on pressure for elections and adopting somewhat different rhetoric. Continuing to talk about “democratization” while not pushing for elections will simply open Washington up to charges of hypocrisy, while a frank acknowledgment that it favors gradual liberalization but not quick elections benefiting its enemies would at least be considered refreshingly honest.
Washington should also recognize that non-democratic institutions that are generally supportive of U.S. policy goals (such as the military in Turkey and the monarchies in Morocco, Jordan, and the Arabian Peninsula) can serve as very useful breaks on the power of elected parliaments, and can even moderate Islamist political groups over time.
Most important, President Bush should return to a position he took in the 2000 presidential debates. Then, he said that if the United States was an “arrogant” nation, the world would resent its leadership, but “if we are a humble nation, but strong, they’ll welcome us.” Humility about what the United States can accomplish on the democratization front, particularly in the short term, would be a welcome change.
April 10th, 2006 at 9:35 pmSomebody should give the geniuses in the pentagon a book about the American revolution. The constitution was written after the occupation troops of the British were expelled, (with help from the French), The elections were held after the constitution was written. The occupation troops did not help write it nor did they get to criticize it.
And King George did not get to reject George Washington because he did not like him. (somebody should tell our pretend boy king)
And Iran added to the mess, well Georgie had 3 failed companies why not 3 failed wars too? (then his legacy as a failure would be complete)
April 10th, 2006 at 9:43 pmthe nyt continues to perpetuate the myth that the u.s. is serious about exporting democracy and that what’s keeping it from happening is entrenched, intransigent, anti-democratic regimes…
but, nobody asks the question, is THAT what we really wanted to do in the first place…?
maybe the reason there’s no “serious or genuine belief in change” is that these governments can clearly see that the u.s. is only interested in extending their dominance over the region and has no intention or desire to create REAL democracy…
Visit my blog: And, yes, I DO take it personally
April 10th, 2006 at 9:50 pmDoes George Bush know anything about the American Revolution? It was a civil war that saw great atrocities on both sides, killed many, destroyed much. 1/3 of the population fled to Canada or the boonies. The resulting economic turmoil took decades to recover. The financial problems were responsible for little civil wars in Massachusetts and other places. The Whiskey rebellion was the result of a bad peace.
April 10th, 2006 at 11:06 pmSomething better change or we will get more of the same.
http://www.mytakeonthings.com/media/saddamtorture3.wmv
http://www.mytakeonthings.com/media/saddamtorture2.wmv
http://www.mytakeonthings.com/media/saddamtorture1.wmv
April 10th, 2006 at 11:08 pmIn Bush Magic World if you say it, it happens.
-GSD
April 10th, 2006 at 11:09 pmwhat difference does it make. bush’s kind of democracy for the Arab world is one-shot democracy. One election to get the theocrats in power and then that’s it – democracy over.
April 10th, 2006 at 11:20 pm.
Again, Bush needs to come clean about his real goal: the spread of a very particular style of capitalism, accompanied by a lap-dog he calls Democracy.
April 10th, 2006 at 11:27 pmPresident Bush did not invade Iraq to promote democracy. President Bush promotes democracy because he invaded Iraq.
For the background, see:
April 10th, 2006 at 11:46 pm“The Myth of the Bush Doctrine.”
#13 James:Please keep in mind that this is not a quote from G.W.B..But it could be.
April 11th, 2006 at 12:42 amSister Joan’s last couple of articles on the National Catholic Reporter website have been about the Iraqi women delegates that came here to participate in a series of conferences held by the Women’s Global Peace Initiative.
They are living it, in Iraq. They and their children. Her latest article was titled, “‘Our childhood is killed in Iraq. It is killed’”
She will be on “Meet the Press”, on April 16th.
April 11th, 2006 at 12:44 amBush and neocons forgot that no matter how bad their leaders are,they will always favor them over occupiers or puppets.
April 11th, 2006 at 2:48 amThe knight kinda reminds me of someone.
April 11th, 2006 at 6:24 ambush’s form of demoracy in the Middle East starts an “O” and ends with an “L” with bush and friends in control of it so they can continue to control the price of gas. The less oil they allow to be pumped and transported the higher the Gas Cost to each of us its about supplu and demand with billions being made off the average consumer no matter what country they live in but I ‘m off topic somewhat…
bush and co want and need the Middle East to stay in a war zone so they can control this region with the Saudi’s……..
April 11th, 2006 at 8:23 am29
Bush only seems to have one policy on everything. It is remarkably effecient in that it covers it all, from Foreign affairs to disaster management.
The name of this policy starts with an F and ends with a P.
April 11th, 2006 at 9:05 amBoth before and after the Iraq invasion, President Bush predicted that Saddam’s fall would lead to democracy flourishing throughout the Middle East
I don’t believe he or any of his ‘advisors’ had any design on Middle East democracy.
April 11th, 2006 at 9:17 amThey planned and carried out their invasion of Iraq for one reason, money.
ANY talk of this Administration doing anything they are supposed to be doing is nothing but a smoke-screen. A cover-up, to allow them to do what they have done since commiting the crime of stealing the highest offices in the Land. These boys and girls all are about themselves, and not much more. Money corrupts their type.
Iraq is about PETROLEUM > always has been and always will be untill every drop has been extracted from under that nation! The Iraqi people are just flies standing above that OIL, so Bush does not care how many of them are killed! The pursuit of the “Black Gold” has turned our entire government into criminals! Shame on everyone in the Congress that helps Oil Cartels!
April 11th, 2006 at 10:13 am# 31 & 32:Yep,I concur with both.
April 11th, 2006 at 10:24 amThere has been a democracy taking shape over in the middle east and bushco’s stupid moves HAVE influenced it. We have Hamas now leading the Palestinian people, we have the worst twit possible elected to head up the Iranian government, and we got a Shite government in Iraq that’s intent on forming a theocratic state.
OK, so that isn’t the democracy they wanted. maybe if they didn’t use that stupid 8-ball to predict the future ramifications of their actions, we’d be a little better off. They won’t. They are stubborn dumb shits.
April 11th, 2006 at 10:26 amQ: Who could possibly have known before the glorious “Bushite Crusade” (Iraqi invasion)…
…that his vision was nothing more than a disaster in the making?
A: The millions around the world who marched in protest…(but didn’t receive one-tenth the media coverage and public debate that the “ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT” marches are receiving)…
MORAL of the STORY:
The corporate controlled Bushite propaganda networks project upon the public…
…which subjects the TREASONOUS criminal Bushite junta wants placed in the public’s consciousness…
…which candidates we should or shouldn’t vote for- (McCain is their next poster boy for PREZ)…
…The American people MUST take back their airwaves, if they are going to control the flow of information…
April 11th, 2006 at 12:29 pmstolen from Riverbends Blog. If you haven’t read her blog about what is really going on in Iraq ,search her blog out. She is a young woman who started blogging in 2003 and has a most uncommon outlook on her Country. He blog is in english as she was raised ad educated out of Country. Enjoy I have.
April Fool’s Day…
Or ‘kithbet neesan’, as it is known in Arabic.
If the current Iraqi government should choose ANY day for their day- what better day than April 1? It’s appropriately named ‘Fool’s Day’, after all.
They have been foolishly trying to get a government together since they first announced the election results. And we’ve been patiently waiting. It’s like being under the threat of punishment for weeks and weeks at a time and finally just wanting to have the punishment over with.
I don’t think anyone believes they’re going to make any improvements or major changes, we’re just tired of waiting for the final formation. People need to know who’ll be in power because they want to know who to pay bribes to or get a ‘tazkiya’ from when they need something done. We need to know which religious party to go to when the Interior Ministry goons take away a relative.
They’ve been bickering over the Prime Minister’s position for so long now, I’m almost wishing Bremer were here to once again implement his whole “Puppet per month†arrangement as in 2003.
In any case, should you want to play an April Fool’s Day joke on an Iraqi (albeit a late one- or maybe even next year), I suggest the following:
1. “Guess what?! There’s going to be electricity this summer!!!†(For better effect, it is suggested a candle be broken in half and thrown high into the air with a whoop.)
2. “Guess what?! The Americans have declared they will be gone by 2010 and they won’t leave permanent bases behind!!!†(This should be said with a straight face.)
3. “Guess what?! They didn’t actually find three corpses in the strip of trees two streets away!!!â€
4. “Guess what?! The Puppets finally formed a government!!!â€
5. “Guess what?! They didn’t actually detain [fill in with the name of a relative, friend- everyone knows someone in prison these days]!!!â€
6. “Guess what?! Chalabi solved the gasoline crisis!!!”
7. “Guess what?! No more religious militias- they’ve been banned from the country!!!” (This should be said in a low voice – just in case)
8. “Great news!! The US is going to make public how the billions of dollars in Iraqi oil money AND donations were ’spent’!!!”
9. “Guess what?! They’re going to actually begin reconstructing the country and they estimate it will take 5 years!!!”
10. “Guess what?! They caught Zarqawi!!!” (This will only work on Iraqis who actually think he exists.)
This was written by Riverbend In honor of April Fools Day.
April 11th, 2006 at 2:00 pmGuru, is the quote from Genesis’ The Knife?
April 11th, 2006 at 2:05 pmJane,yes. You’re observant. If you havn’t heard this work[TRESPASS] lately, you should break it out again.Keep in mind this is pre Phil Collins from 1970.The drum work by John Mayhew are excellent.Was my first GENESIS,and may be my favorite.
April 13th, 2006 at 1:23 amVisions of angels all around
,,,dance in the sky
Leaving me here
,,,forever goodbye.
Jane; I have a poetry/prophesy slam going back on April 4th.Go to ‘All Clear’ where there are about 31 comments.If you have anything to add or any comments,please do it there.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:25 pmUPDATE: Correction to The Knife.
…” Some of you are going to die
April 15th, 2006 at 12:15 amMartyr’s of coarse to the freedom
That I shall provide.”
Correction to Correction:
…”Some of you are going to die
April 16th, 2006 at 3:33 amMartyr’s of course to the freedom
That I shall provide.”
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