Kristol: ‘We Could Be In A Military Confrontation With Iran Much Sooner Than People Expect’
Kristol: ‘We Could Be In A Military Confrontation With Iran Much Sooner Than People Expect’
This morning on Fox News, Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol continued to beat the war drums for a military strike against Iran. Watch it:
Kristol is attempting to hype the Iranian situation as a crisis. As Retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert G. Gard said recently, “To call the Iranian situation a ‘crisis’ connotes you have to do something right now, like bomb them.”
The truth is there is very little good intelligence on Iran’s capabilities. Here’s what the experts are saying:
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts warned that “we have not made the progress on our oversight of Iran intelligence, which is critical.”
Roberts’ Intel Committee staff director Bill Duhnke said, “There is no organized commitÂtee staff effort to look at Iran right now.”
“I continue to believe that our sources are stale and our case is thin,” said Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), the ranking member on the House Intelligence Committee
“U.S. intelligence on the ground is quite poor, especially as it relates to understanding how decisions are made and who controls the power centers in Iran,” said CSIS expert Jon Wolfsthal.
Faulty intelligence hasn’t stopped Kristol in the past. Why would he start now?
Full transcript:
KRISTOL: I think we could be in a military confrontation with Iran much sooner than people expect. I don’t think this is an issue that’s going to wait two and a half years until President Bush leaves the presidency. I think he will decide at some point next year — in 2007 — he’ll have to make some very tough decisions about what the U.S. and the world can tolerate in terms of this regime – this apocalyptic, messianic regime — which has made clear that it would use — would feel free to use weapons if it had them, that has very deep ties with terrorist groups, what we could accept in terms of their nuclear program.
QUESTION: What does that mean, what we can accept, does that mean going over and doing something about whatever they’ve got?
KRISTOL: It could mean that. I hope we’re doing things covertly to try to slow down their nuclear progress and I hope we can do much more perhaps and get some allies to do more, but I don’t think a military strike against Iran is at all out of the question. If you saw the president’s press conference yesterday, he said he hoped diplomacy would work, but I was struck by his words. I hope diplomacy would work, it would be helpful if the world spoke with a united voice against Iran, but he’s said over and over, you cannot allow this regime to have nuclear weapons and I think we may come to a real serious choice next year.
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If Bush and Kristol want to attack Iran it will happen. Doesn’t matter what Harman or Roberts say.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:10 pmwhy dosnt kristol don a helmet & uniform and get his war-mongering ass over to fight his personal little war and leave us all alone?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:10 pmI think I just watched a grown man have a wargasm.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:12 pmThere’s very little intel on Iran right now…because Cheney and Rove and Scooter and Armitage OUTED the CIA operation that was doing intel on Iran. Valerie Plame and her cover company Brewster-Jennings were the CIA’s intel operation on Iran WMDs.
Is this a coincidence? I don’t think so. I think Cheney deliberately destroyed the CIA’s Iran intel operation in order to make it easier to lie about Iran like they lied about Iraq.
I bet Chimpy nukes Iran before the end of his term.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:13 pmKristol should be among the first troops on the ground if we go to Iran. Or preferably strapped to the firat bomb dropped.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:13 pmKristol needs to be committed.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:13 pmHe really thinks Bush won’t f*** this one up?
Man, they must have some good dealers in DC.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:14 pmKristol and FOX are propagated and legitimized by Democrats who go on FOX.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:14 pm#5
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:19 pmNah, no strapping to a bomb. They should just drop him out of the plane.
Yet another Jew telling us which direction the country is heading.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:20 pmCount ‘em folks,they have it covered left,right and center and their own homeland too.
How many more refugees will it take to satisfy these people?
“Man, they must have some good dealers in DC.”
Just talk to Rush: he’s got ALL the good DC connections.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:20 pmWhat is with the Bush Cabal? Do they have a Death Wish? Aren’t they being more than a little trigger happy?
Besides, whatever happened to North Korea? Or Pakistan? Or any number of nations developing things we might not want them to?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:21 pmComment by peter — August 22, 2006 @ 12:20 pm
Just another Israeli.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:22 pmWith just a bit of tweaking, Kristol’s statement makes a lot more sense:
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:22 pmWill anything deter The Neocon Bunch from continuing to push their absolutely evil Clean Break notions?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:24 pmBill Kristol will fight the world down to the last American…He being the last American.
Kristol is a coward and a war monger and he and his ilk should be driven into the marshes of ideological obscurity for a generation or two.
-GSD
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:24 pmI have a difficult time understanding why military action is “required”.
If Chimpy and his Henchmen had been doing their job, there would be no way the Iranians could fund their little development efforts. Afterall, Georgey Boy Bush has been monitoring banking transactions worldwide.
[from: http://www.theregister.co.uk/ 2006/ 08/ 22/ terrorist_finance_snoop/ ]
The US Treasury programme of snooping on international banking transactions to track terrorist funding had unfettered access to the world’s private financial details for anything upto five years…
…the Treasury’s snooping on international financial records, begun by subpoena in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, was being done without oversight while Swift negotiated to protect the privacy of the international data it held…
…The way in which international business operates its IT infrastructure has given the US government unprecedented power to view international financial records.
Swift has an unspecified number of data centres around the world, each one storing every one of the 11 million transactions it handles on a daily basis, being mirrors of one another as backup in the event of one of them failing. This means that a US subpoena of records kept in Swift’s US data centre will gain access to financial transactions made in over 200 countries.
In testimony before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations on 11 July, Stuart Levey, under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the US Treasury said no-one would have known about this programme (called the Terrorist Finance Tracking Programme) if details had not been leaked to the US papers.
He said secrecy was one of the programme’s strengths. But Republicans have complained that even Congress was not aware of what was going on…
It’s not just NSA warrantless wiretapping. It’s world domination thru dictatorship!
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:26 pmThank you Bill Kristol, for doing the job of our entire system of government, unsolicited, for free.
To show our appreciation, we now offer you an early and permanent retirement.
May you enjoy many rounds of golf. Don’t come back.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:30 pmIt’s ironic. I support progressive candidate because I’m anti-Israel. But it’s really the wingers who’d like to see it’s demise. Crazy upside down world…
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:33 pmThere’s very little intel on Iran right now…because Cheney and Rove and Scooter and Armitage OUTED the CIA operation that was doing intel on Iran.
Comment by Tom3 — August 22, 2006 @ 12:13 pm
Not only that, Tom — there’s very little intel on Iran right now because BushCo hasn’t finished making it up yet. Don’t forget what got us into this quagmire in Iraq in the first place — doctored photos, fake intel, and outright lies. So all they’re probably doing right now in the WH and Pentagon is trying to make sure their web of lies and fake intel is in place before they act.
THEN they’ll nuke Iran…
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:33 pmNobody forget that this man is one of McCain’s advisors. A vote for McCain in 2008 is a vote for Bill Kristol and his views too.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:37 pmDemocrat or republican…
Liberal or conservative…
I think that everybody should agree on a simple fact: we cannot let Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
The same way Neil Young opposes war in Iraq but not in Afghanistan.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:38 pmSenate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts warned that “we have not made the progress on our oversight of Iran intelligence, which is critical.â€
Now he’s concerned about oversight of intelligence. How f-ing convenient.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:45 pmIt’s really insulting that we keep having this discussion about “disarming” Muslims and “brokering peace deals”. Many countries simply do not and will not ever recognize Israel. And they’re powerful countries on one level or another.
This discussion will eventually fall right at the feet of whether Americans want to continue to support Israel.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:45 pmI think that this Bush administration is the apocalyptic regime kristol is talking about, and not the Iranians
I mean he’s thinking of striking Iran just before he leaves office so he wouldn’t have to deal with the fall out.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:45 pmThis guys is insane.
Bill Kristol serial liar, Neocon war monger and well proven fool, should be shunned like a canibal child molester with bad breath.
Has this asshole ever been right about anything?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:46 pm# 21.Elliot:
A vote for McCain? ROFLMAO!!
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:46 pmComment by David Gagnon
Do you know what drums are sounding now? M.A.D.Just as with USSR.
The debate we should be having now is how do we deal with an Iran that has nukes.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:49 pmThe foreign policy of the U.S. (pre-emptive war for regime change) and rhetoric (”axis of evil”) have created the impetus for Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear technology as soon as they can. After all, BushCo lumped Iraq, Iran, and North Korea together as the “axis of evil” and attacked the only country without a strong military. BushCo is not just creating a military-industrial complex here in the U.S., they are doing so in the whole world. Mutual Assured Destruction is back!
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:49 pmhow do we deal with an Iran that has nukes.
Comment by The DLC are Frauds — August 22, 2006 @ 12:49 pm
Iran has nuclear weapons?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:50 pm28 The DLC are Frauds
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:53 pmWow, M.A.D. identified simultaneously - if only BushCo would get it.
Comment by Gregor Samsa — August 22, 2006 @ 12:50 pm
How the hell would I know?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:53 pm# 24:
So called Israel (false prophet) used terror to create their state.That state created six hundred thousand (600,000) refugees in one fell swoop.And many more since then.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:55 pmNow they dictate our foriegn policy.
The DLC are Frauds,
So, what did you mean by “how do we deal with an Iran that has nukes”?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:55 pmIf Iran gets nukes then the same policy that prevented Russia from using their nukes will be the same. Mutually assured destruction.
The only problem is that when a madman is in charge he might not care about the destruction of his people or his country.
A madman might just start a “nucular” war based on his gut instinct.
A madman might believe god talks to him and has told him to attack.
A madman does not live in the reality based community.
Our guy is crazier then theirs and thats the real danger.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:56 pm35 Comment by mparker
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:00 pmAnd what if China calls in all the U.S. loans? A tanked economy does not buy many tanks.
Bill Kristol reminds me of that kid that would always tell the teacher on you.
His sniveling, constipated, ‘I don’t like anyone much’ look makes me sick.
Not one of these little pricks ever served. It’s high time we put the Neocons
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:02 pmin the front lines. Then not only would they look constipated, but have skid
marks on those military fatiques, as well.
Chickenshits.
Chickenhawks.
Chickens… and they don’t even taste good.
What Kristol says publicly, Cheney says privately.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:04 pmLet me speak for the world - As Bill Kristol cannot speak for the world any more than I
we can handle Iran with nukes if they get them , what we cant handle is America and its foreign policy
2005 every nation in the UN 173 countries voted to BAN nukes except george Bushes America ………. DONT SPEAK IN MY NAME AS THE REST OF THE WORLD VIEWS ARE MUCH WISER THAN YOURS
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:04 pmRepublicans can’t be trusted to do ANYTHING right.
The strongest proof positive is Bushco and the lunatic Neocons Iraq fiasco.
Bill Kristol is a seriously deluded Neocon lunatic who can crow all he wants but it’s highly unlikely he will succeed to make the case for war with Iran.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:10 pmi didn’t play the video yet—does kristol finish his “interview” and get away before that missile reaches him?
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:12 pmGregor Samsa
I think the discussion is worthy a hypothetical.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:13 pm(Re the original story: )Hey, I’ve been expecting it since 2004/2005 or so.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:30 pmUnfortunately for Kristol and the neocons, their war-mongering plans are out of step with mainstream America. Everybody wants to “be safe from terror” but the neocon agenda is not about keeping America safe, rather making sure there is an unfettered supply of oil coming to our country. Safety and Bush’s “war on terror” are just a ruse to make sure oil profits roll into GOP contributors’ pockets. Kristol is the leader of the group that have successfully kept President Bush out of touch with reality–an easy task.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:30 pmDLC,
This is the second time I have seen you post something along these lines. Can you name some of the Democrats that have been on Fox? I don’t know of any, besides their stooges.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:31 pmSpudge, there are a number of Democrats that do appear on Fox. Although, now that we know FOx negotiates with terrorists, we should make it known that they are a traitorous company.
-GSD
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:37 pmI think I just watched a grown man have a wargasm.
Comment by dlet
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:39 pm———–
LOL!
Lamont went to FOX first after winning the primary.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:40 pmLevin is a FOX regular.
Boxer.
Harman.
Lieberman.
Jeesh man, too many. I would guess every Democratic senator goes on FOX. They do it as a rule to “fight back”.
Yet another Jew telling us which direction the country is heading.
Count ‘em folks,they have it covered left,right and center and their own homeland too.
How many more refugees will it take to satisfy these people?
Comment by peter
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:42 pm————–
I can imagine the hateful snarl your face contorts into when you say the word “Jew”.
I think that everybody should agree on a simple fact: we cannot let Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
Comment by David Gagnon
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:45 pm—————
Why?
If anyone hasn’t read it, Check out this great article in Rollingstone about how th Neocons are pushing for an invasion of Iran
Among other things, it details how Douglas Feith’s Pentagon unit accidentaly blew our cover in breaking the Iranian intelligence codes.
And one more thing for Kristol and the Neoconservatives running around yelling “Give them their freedom, bring democracy to Iran!!” : Hello you idiots, the people of Iran freely elected their government. Is it any wonder the people over their are electing radicals? You Neoconservative armchair generals can thank yourselves for the fact they hate America so much!! thanks a bunchm, stupid!
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:46 pmCongress must trip this numbnutz of any power that he thinks he has before he creates another disaster.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:47 pmMan I hope the UN can finally step up and do its job in this case. Going to war with IRAN in the next 6-12 months wouldn’t be good at all. I fear that the UN will once again fail to get IRAN to completely stop its Nuke activities which would force us into WAR. So, lets all hope that the UN finally does its job or we will once again be forced to take action.
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:49 pmThe thing most americans don’t know is that Iran is a pretty well-industrialized country. In fact it’s strange that they are only now developing nuclear energy, when other countries have done so fo a long time.
And another thing: Iran tried to deal with us on capturing Al Qaeda operatives, but the neocons were so afraid to make peace with Iran they wouldn’t cooperate.
Iran is not a country that is going to use nuclear weapons even if they had them. They don’t even want Al Qaeda in their country — you want to stop the sponsors of terror, stop Saudi Arabia and Pakistan from doing so… oh wait, then Bush & Cheney woudn’t be able to sell WEAPONS to them!
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:52 pm(YAWN) Another superior, intelligent post by Roger Roger
August 22nd, 2006 at 1:57 pmThank,D.Tree for an antidote to fearful,administration-inspired,knee-jerk reactions:facts.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:03 pmBushCo is hypocritical - they want to “export” democracy and capitalism to other countries to make those countries more like the U.S. but they get all apoplectic if another country wants nuclear energy and/or weapons like we do. With the saber rattling and hypocrisy, how can anyone be surprised that Iran is after nukes?
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:05 pmEven though EVERYTHING the neocons have said and done with regard Iraq has turned out to be exactly wrong - they still contend that they have some special understanding that people who disagree with them just don’t have… only they get it… so we should all just follow along.
I am so sick and tired of hearing shit like “they just don’t understand the war on terror… the nature of the world… the threats we face around the world… how to keep America safe ect…
When will people stop accepting their empty ass rhetoric and start looking critically at their track record?
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:06 pmIn a vote of the Disarmament Committee of the United Nations (UN), one and only one nation voted against ElBaradei’s proposal – George Bush’s America. In that same vote, Israel abstained, apparently fearing international interference with their own outlaw nuclear weapons program, and Britain abstained in an act of diplomatic fealty to the “special relationship” between Tony Blair and George Bush. The final tally was 147 nations to one with the two abstentions. In a later vote of the entire UN General Assembly, Israel and Britain abstained, while America and Palau voted against ElBaradei’s verifiable ban on fission, and 179 nations voted in favor of his proposal. The final vote on that occasion was 179 in favor, two opposed (U.S. and Palau), and two abstentions (Israel and Britain).
What wankers voted against this resolution ?????????
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:07 pmDLC,
I would take Lieberman off the list of “Democrats” he doesn’t fit the description.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:08 pmlets all hope that the UN finally does its job or we will once again be forced to take action.
Comment by Roger_Roger — August 22, 2006 @ 1:49 pm
Rog - Why do we have to be the world police?
Even if Iran gets nuclear weapons they still wouldn’t be able to fit it to a missile that could reach America for decades afterwards.
If Iran is truly a threat let the people who are truly threatened by them do something about it!!!
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:11 pmSo, lets all hope that the UN finally does its job or we will once again be forced to take action.
Comment by Roger_Roger — August 22, 2006 @
We? You got a ied in your pocket?
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:14 pmYou got a ied in your pocket?
Comment by Barfly — August 22, 2006 @ 2:14 pm
Maybe he is just happy to see you?
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:18 pmI was attempting to keep up the “wargasm” theme; Roger’s ready to go, so don’t stand in front of him.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:26 pmI guess the world is not going to end today after all… Iran has just announced that they are ready to have “serious negotiations” with the US beginning as soon as tomorrow.
Maybe next time Shrill Kristol?
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:33 pmG.W. SuperChrist,
So are you suggesting we let Israel go to war with Iran? Would you back Isreal if they attack Iran? At least we know Israel is threatened by Iran.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:44 pmWe could have given a full scholarship to every college student in the country with the money we have spent in Iraq.
Then again this doesn’t matter to our Idiot-in-Chief who since college days has had contempt for knowledge, equating learning with snobbery and making a joke of his own anti-intellectualism.
A dolt begets other dolts which in large part is Bush’s fundi Christian wacko base expect of of course for wealthy who are LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:56 pmwhat we should do… is let Israel bomb Iran , and destroy Iran
Make the START IT and really put the hurt on Iran
then we can clean up and not be the bad guys….
you foolish peaceniks wony go for this…
but isnt it the best option; given that Israel is going to bomb Iran anyway ?
yes.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:56 pmI will support an attack on Iran as long as Bill Kristol is strapped to the only cruise missile we launch.
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:17 pmButterjungle is a Chimpyloving Chickenhawk. He is in here instead of in Iraq.
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:17 pmTo The DLC are Frauds
I’m not sure that a country bragging about having a army of 55 000 suicide bomber is suceptible to the M.A.D. rethoric.
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:21 pm* Speaking to Terry Gross on NPR’s Fresh Air - April 1, 2003:
“And on this issue of the Shia in Iraq, I think there’s been a certain amount of, frankly, Terry, a kind of pop sociology in America that, you know, somehow the Shia can’t get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There’s almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq’s always been very secular.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Kristol
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:27 pmSo how many of Kristol’s four kids has Kristol raised to be soldiers in the wars he has proposed and continues to propose? None? I thought so.
Don’t fight wars championed by weasels.
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:58 pmSounds great. After we conquer and occupy Iran, which country is next on the hit list?
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:05 pmThe Israel Lobby strikes again. Israel is trying to convince the American people that we must attack Iran. Read the Mearsheimer Walt paper for for information. It can be found at the London Review of Books.
Phylo out.
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:15 pm“I fear that the UN will once again fail to get IRAN to completely stop its Nuke activities which would force us into WAR.”
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:16 pmFalse assumption - would not force us into anything.
So, lets all hope that the UN finally does its job or we will once again be forced to take action.
False assumption.
Working with China and Russia, trade sanctions requiring inspection of their research would be sufficient.
NO WAR. Unless of course, you my friend are in the vanguard of the troops marching into Iran. How bout it?
Wise up folks. The Bush Cabal will not negotiate with Iran, they wont negotiate with anyone. They cant, they do not have any “negotiators”.
There is no diplomacy in the cabal, because we dont have any diplomats. All we have is a bunch of war mongers.
Cheney and Bush saw to it that the spying on Iran was stopped, they outed the independent firm that was doing it. Why, you may ask. So that any lies they could spread in the future could not be disproven.
Iran is not now, and has not been working, on an atomic bomb. They are enriching uranium for just what they say they are doing it for, peaceful purposes. But Bush, in the throes of his ignorance, does not want this out, he wants the opposite to be true, he is president, and by God it is true.
Negotiate with Iran? No way, then all the world would see the lies Bush has been spreading for the past year.
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:37 pmI agree that we can not afford a nuclear armed Iran, but to consider bombing Iran or to ask them to stop enrichment before we agree to engage them in direct talks is turning the conflict on its head. They want a non-aggression traety and diplomatic goodies for their efforts. I say, what is the harm in talking? Perhaps, if we engage Syria and Iran directly, we could acquire their aid in remedying the crisis in Iraq and Lebanon. It is gravely disingenuous to proclaim that human beings living across an imaginary line in the sand are bloodthirsty extremists with whom you can not resolve a conflict. The Iranian people are mostly secular and before Iraq and Lebanon, they tended to be pro US.
BTW… Be under no illusions. Kristol may be a dual citizen, but his primary allegiance is not to America. I am sick and tired of listening to the disciples of Jabotinsky pretend that fire bombing the entire Middle East is in American interests.
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:49 pmNeocons, warmongers, these dangerous idiots whose parents never taught them the rules of diplomacy over bullyism, ought to be the first to fight in war with Iran. BUT, then again, why should the Iranians have to put up with our mentally disturbed agressive disorders by having bombs fall on their heads.
The recent “war in Lebanon,” where the United States ostensibly encouraged Israel to attack the “terrorists” Hezbollah, but where over a thousand innocent civilians were killed, infrastructure destroyed, roads and bridges bombed, ought to be enough to prove that impeachment, removal from office followed by imprisonment is NOT such an outrageous call for the BUSHCOs.
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:56 pmThe Bush admin?
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:04 pmThe recent “war in Lebanon,†where the United States ostensibly encouraged Israel to attack the “terrorists†Hezbollah, but where over a thousand innocent civilians were killed, infrastructure destroyed, roads and bridges bombed, ought to be enough to prove that impeachment, removal from office followed by imprisonment is NOT such an outrageous call for the BUSHCOs.
Comment by Rhad P
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:07 pm—————-
Agreed.Impeachment and jail time for the Bush imperialist criminals is an utterly sane,just, option.
Pre-Emptive Doctrine
Would all of this talk on Fox and of so many high level officials be cause enough for Iran to implement their own version of a Pre-Emptive strike? This kind of loose talk is endagering American lives and needs to cease immediately.
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:11 pm#50 -
Don’t forget General Wesley Clark, a Fox News Contributor.
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:14 pmHe’s always there with military analysis.
Is it any wonder Iran really wants nuclear weapons to defend itself against aggressor nations?
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:24 pm-
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Awwww. poor Bill Kristol, so close to having a major wargasm regarding a strike on Iran
Unfortunately for billiboi, just what are the chances there will be ANY military strike on Iran both before the November elections AND while we’re still bogged down in Iraq?
NONE
That’s right
NONE
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:25 pmLittle Billy wants another war. His first beating of the war drum was so successful. This guy believes he is an intellectual, but his little pea brain gives him away.
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:45 pmIt seems there that there is a belief that having nuclear weapons is as simple as acquiring the appropriate materials. Materials which the Iranians don’t possess anyway. They are trying to acquire them.
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:46 pmNuclear weapons are highly sophisticated devices. Then there is the problem of delivery.
Doesn’t this new “threat” seem appear to be more dangerous and imposing by the day?
It is such a transparent reproduction it is unconsciable.
Can’t somebody…anybody frag this motherf*cking asshole?
August 22nd, 2006 at 5:59 pmHas anyone stopped to think that even though Iran my be wanting Nukes and are working to develop them (per Bushites, Fox et al), they are not desirous of the end of humanity? Hell they may want to commit a few suicide bombers around the world to blow themselves to bits with others, but they sure as hell don’t want to see their ass burned. If Iran were to set off a Nuke they would be obliterated. It would be suicide for the entire region not to mention probably the rest of us. If a WMD was set off in the west and it was traced back to them, Iran and the surrounding region would be transformed into glass. They may be a bit looney but they are not looking to destroy themselves. The Kristol bunch just want war, it is that simple. Don’t count on the neocons to engage in anything resembling deductive reasoning. Power and greed prevents them from doing so.
August 22nd, 2006 at 7:17 pmWill
What? Chaos and carnage isn’t a good thing? What? Sounds like you guys don’t want the meat machine to eat any more women and kids and stuff.
Wow. You sure? Hmmm.
August 22nd, 2006 at 7:23 pmIs it just me, or is Bill Kristol the absolutely creepiest of them all? He’s got the corners of his mouth stapled to his molars, and ack.. he just creeps me out. The only thing creepier than him, is the gargage he spews.
August 22nd, 2006 at 8:56 pm…if it does happen, that’s the coffin in the nail for bush, and his family in general.
August 22nd, 2006 at 9:07 pmHere is the crux of the Plame outing: destroying information gathering capabilities related to Iran’s WMD development so the whack-pack can be fact-free in formulating public opinion on the existence and urgency of the threat.
August 22nd, 2006 at 9:14 pmBill Kristol’s son should be drafted into service to fight for his father’s war. My nephew made it home from Iraq and now I learn that he could be sent back in despite the fact that he met his four year committment to the Marines. If Kristol wants war so much then let him offer up his own kids.
August 22nd, 2006 at 10:01 pmYeah, Iran is scary, just like Iraq was. You righties remind my of the lion in The Wizard of Oz.
August 22nd, 2006 at 10:38 pm#68 Roger_Roger
“At least we know Israel is threatened by Iran.”
Yep, Israel has between 100 and 500 nukes and Iran MIGHT have one or two in 5 to 10 years! Israel should be shaking in its boots!
Any use on nukes by Iran would lead to the destruction of Iran and the loss of power (and lives) of the leaders. Leaders crave power! The leaders of Iran are OLD. You don’t get old by being suicidal!
Wake up Roger! You are being lied to! The reason for attacking Iran is that they nationalized their oil, just like Venzuela. That is why the corporatists want them out, so they can get ALL of the profit from pumping, refining and selling the oil!
If you can’t figutre that out, you would best serve the country by loading yourself into a B-2 and letting yourself be dropped on a test range to train our pilots! Even then the mess left after you splat would be toxic waste!
August 22nd, 2006 at 11:11 pmThere goes Kristol again. It wasn’t enough to BET THE UNITED STATES and LOSE in Iraq. They just keep trying to DOUBLE DOWN and BET whatever little we have left to save their REPUBLI-CON hides.
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:10 am… so we hit Iran with bombs … we do unknown damage to only those facilities we strike …. meanwhile no US or ally ship can be in the Gulf, as Iran could probably keep throwing missiles at ships until they get what they want ….
so Kuwait and Iraq, UAE become isolates by ship; that’ll really help world oil prices, and probably trigger large-weapon exchanges, since the conservatives only re-deploy troops, never expanding the hard obligation beyond volunteers … (theyre running out of bodies to redeploy) … we couldn’t send an effective occupation force, and it’d be very high risk to do other than small special op things, absent the full scale invasion.
bombing is insanity. what little material damage we would do would 1) be replaced quickly, and 2) cause us to have to justify why we attacked a non-nuclear state about it’s nuclear weapons programs, when we let it slide with others in the same neighborhood (Israel, Pakistan, Russia, India), and highlight our hypocrisy about restraint, as we still have large nuclear weapon stockpiles, and we attack states who have not attacked us … their aggressive rhetoric aside
I join the posters who say, Mr. Kristol, strap it on if you think we need to attack
…
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:13 amMahmoud Ahmadinejad: “If you want to have good relations with the Iranian people in the future, you should acknowledge the right and the might of the Iranian people, and you should bow and surrender to the might of the Iranian people. If you do not accept this, the Iranian people will force you to bow and surrender.”
And you think that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should be able to get nuclear wespons ?
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:27 amThere is no evidence that Iran is building nuclear weapons and even if they did then it’s atleast 10 years away according to U.S. Intelligence Reviews.
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:41 amI can’t believe there’s still this much ignorance. The Straussian deceivers are not and will never tell the truth to the “ignorant masses”.
Iran is just another mission for the neocon PNAC imperialists. It has nothing to do with nukes. They have been war pimping and tried to find excuses for a war for a long time and a vast majority of their talking points have been refuted.
It’s another war USA can’t afford. Stop PNAC before it’s too late!
There goes Kristol again. It wasn’t enough to BET THE UNITED STATES and LOSE in Iraq. They just keep trying to DOUBLE DOWN and BET whatever little we have left to save their REPUBLI-CON hides.
According to the PNAC plan the mission actually has been succesful. They succeeded in one of their main goals, permanent stay in the country. What may look like incompetence is actually a series of successes…including the New Pearl Harbor, which they needed, and received.
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:47 amI guess the strategic plan from the secret “energy task force” that Cheney convened with all the big oil execs before they unleashed 9/11 on us is working fine. $100 a barrel oil is just around the corner, and $5 a gallon at the pump.
Just like they planned!
Don’t you guys get it, they’re getting rich, and people are dying. It’s another bush presidency!
August 23rd, 2006 at 1:52 amLook people, these neo-cons are crazy. look at the PNAC, just look it up. for example 9/11 was an inside job. how, you ask? well, besides the real EViDENCE and facts, one must ask oneself…If these people are OK with killing little children, babies and civilians of Arab descent or in another country, what makes you think that they will feel guilty of killing some middle-aged, middle-class Americans. Basically, they don’t care about either, so we, as “civilians” or citizens or Americans have a duty as in our Constitution to ‘call them out’ on this. we are humans, don’t let them fool you..www.infowars.com
August 23rd, 2006 at 2:15 amHoly crap, this guy Kristol is an idiot! How do people like that get into positions like that? Doesn’t he appear to be looking down his nose at all of us? Does he have neck problems or something? Or is he just a prlck? It’s hard to tell.
We do need to do something about these direct violations of International Law. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Rove, AND Olmert. Saddam should be expatriated back to his home country and repaid (or at least, apologized to!) for having his country sent to the brink of civil war multiple times, by an idealistic western idiot.
I’m an American, no affiliations to Islam or Judaism, and I am appalled. Even more appalling is the fact that the average Dumb-F__k American is too stupid to realize what’s going on. They only seem to care about Paris Hilton’s latest antics or their bloated huge SUVs. The average D.F.A. is too stupid to recognize CONTROLLED DEMOLITIONS when they see them. The average D.F.A. is too stupid to see the blindingly obvious atrocities being committed worldwide by American interests, for American interests. The average D.F.A. is too stupid to notice that the creation and recognition of Israel violated SEVERAL United Nations laws, and these violations continue to this very day. The average D.F.A. doesn’t know about the PNAC. It’s too bad that forces are working against the education of the average D.F.A. and perpetuating what I call “The F__ing Dumbness”.
If you saw a burglar break into a neighbor’s house, you’d think it was pretty awful and probably call the police. Now what if those police arrived with a pizza (and some tanks, jet fighters, nukes, etc..) and gave it all to the burglar, along with the deed to the poor sap’s house, and set the burglar up with a high-speed unlimited porn network connection directly to the cop station.. Meanwhile, the neighbor lives in a cardboard box in the drainage ditch behind his old house.
Why do US forces go and blow up countries just because they (in the US’ eyes) “illegally occupied another sovereign nation’s territory”, while simultaneously allowing other countries to do so? Why did the definition of “terrorist” recently change into “any combatant in the world who isn’t a US ally“?? Follow the money.
Hooray for humanity, justice and equality!
Oh wait, I spelled it wrong..Hooray for Humanity, Justice and Equality!â„¢ **
**Humanity, Justice and Equality!â„¢ is a registered trademark of the United States of America. Unauthorized use will result in pre-emptive attacks and economic sanctions against the violating party(s).
August 23rd, 2006 at 3:19 amArticle 1.1 UN Charter: and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;
Article 1. 2. To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;”
The UN Charter is U.S. law. Warcriminals and Presidents are not entitled to determine which laws they will follow.
August 23rd, 2006 at 3:52 amZionism…..they dont care about Arabs or Jews. All they want is an excuse to sell arms, make money and create a one world government. Iran will be attacked- I think by Israel because U.S. forces are spread too thin right now. This Neo-Con Facist Government in D.C. does not give a damn’ about the American people. I cannot wait till January 2009. I just hope that the whole world doesn’t hate us by then. I really feel sorry for the next President. Not only will he inherit a huge deficit but he must also convince the world that we still have compassion.
August 23rd, 2006 at 4:54 amI think he’s right at the moment in Iraq the US is totally reliant on Iranian and Syrian fuel for it’s troops. Let me say that again the supply corridor from Kuwait 1,600 miles away was closed a year ago and the US forces have to buy fuel from the insurgents who truck it in from Syria and Iran.
Recently completely missed by the mainstream media the US had to move it’s logistics from the road to air transport because of the danger on the ground. Air transport is five times as expensive as road transport so that any budget agreed with the Congress has just been blown.
By increasing the small air to ground missiles in Iraq Iran can take down the slow moving C130’s at will. Without fuel the US army tanks and planes are just static gun emplacements. This leaves 130,000 men defenseless.
If you take the view that the US is not going to leave Iraq then the only step forward is to try to invade Iran. Personally I think this is stupid because the Israeli’s can’t even make headway against Hezb Allah but what the heck. The US is bust it might as well go down with the hatred of the whole world behind it.
August 23rd, 2006 at 5:44 amDid I hear Kristol say that he is volunteering to actually go fight this war? No - he’s just another “yellow elephant”.
If you get the chance, check out C&L. There’s a Hardball interview with Paul Hackett and Van “shithead” from Texas.
August 23rd, 2006 at 7:32 amRabid Zionist
August 23rd, 2006 at 8:10 amDemocrat or republican…
Liberal or conservative…
I think that everybody should agree on a simple fact: we cannot let Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
The same way Neil Young opposes war in Iraq but not in Afghanistan.
Comment by David Gagnon — August 22, 2006 @ 12:38 pm
—-
I totally disagree. I think a nuclear Iran is a perfect foil to Israeli expansionism. If it hasn’t become obvious yet, the US is being manipulated into laying the groundwork for a “Greater Israel”by Zionist fanatics.
Look at Krystol, he’s absolutely one of them.
Look at all the “Neocons” that have been behind the whole fiasco in Iraq…
Richard Perle
Paul Wolfowitz
Douglas Feith
I. Lewis Libby
Elliott Abrams
John Bolton
David Wurmser
Michael Chertoff
(Just to name a few.)
…yep, they’re mostly Jewish and they’re all pro-Israel Zionists. It amazes me that people cant’ put 2 and 2 together it’s so freakin’ obvious. Are Americans really his stupid???
Then again, who controls the media in this country: http://100777.com/node/1612
If Americans don’t start waking up soon, all will be lost. You can kiss this country goodbye.
The sad truth is that it’s probably too late anyway.
August 23rd, 2006 at 8:28 amthe best way to deal with iran is to develop alternative sources of energy. according to a report i saw yesterday irans gocvt gets 40-50% of its budget from oil revenues.
August 23rd, 2006 at 9:09 am“Are Americans really his stupid???”
It would seem so.
August 23rd, 2006 at 11:12 amIt woud seem so.
Isn’t it sad to see a great nation is dragged by a few illiterate people like Kristol?
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:26 pmIt is the story of “monkey and elephant”.
This monkey –the Kristol, and his cronies will guide US –the elephant into another swamp, and then them-selves will jump to a tree branch to survive.
Where are people who care about the US?
Maybe he should recieve a mass-email with the enlistment form included. If he truly believed his own bullshit, he’d be the first to the fight.
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:50 pmMismanagements, miscalculations and mishaps have plagued America ’s stated mission of promoting freedom and democracy in the Middle East in our war against terrorism.
It began after the disaster of 9/11 by our attack on the terrorists’ strongholds in Afghanistan , in which we had the support, if only nominally, of the international community. Before achieving the desired objective of “smoking out the terrorists and bringing them to justiceâ€, we attacked Iraq , this time with only token support by the “coalition of the willingâ€, who have since backed out or are in the process, one by one.
Now our friend and surrogate, Israel, emboldened by our total, unquestioned and unequivocal support, is carrying out the same pattern, mindless of the lessons learned, or lessons that should have been learned, from the experiences of its patron and protector.
The results of the policies and actions of the past four and a half years of engagement in the Middle East affairs are as follows:
1- After the removal of the Taliban, we installed our own man as the new leader of the “democratic†Afghanistan . Our puppet regime is, with our military and financial support, only in control of Kabul and arguably Kandahar , with the rest of the country back under the rule of tribal warlords. The Taliban, meanwhile, are making a strong comeback, and no one knows what the future may hold for that devastated country.
2- The elimination of the Sunni Ba’thist regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq created the vacuum for the majority Shi’a to gain political prominence. The sectarian violence between the dismembered Sunni, backed by other predominantly Sunni states in the region, and the Shi’a, who are supported by the neighboring Shi’a Iran, is now headed for an all out civil war. After the loss of about 2,500 troops and nearly half a trillion dollars, even our military experts fear that Iraq is sinking out of our control into a civil war with regional ramifications that could affect the northern Kurdish populations, which would inevitably spread into and destabilize Turkey.
3- Israel ’s opportunistic assault on Lebanon * was patterned after our own invasion of Iraq under false or questionable pretexts and with the same sense of overconfidence that victory would be just around the corner. The results will doubtless be very similar to our own experiences in the region. The embattled Hezbollah, although no match for the mighty Israeli army, has been able to hold its own and even to gain political prominence in the region. This Shi’a political party with its potent militant flank has now earned the respect, envy and support of the entire Islamic World, Sunni as well as Shi’a. Just as has been the case for the United States , Israel has managed to create more enemies and antagonists in the process of its declared war on terror.
*I wonder why we haven’t seen or heard any details of where exactly (on which side of the Blue Line) or how the attack on Israeli border forces and the abduction of the two Israeli soldiers took place. Isn’t that curious?
The most troubling aspect of the situation on the ground at this time is the lack of an acceptable exit strategy. This will also prove true of the hole Israel has been digging itself into in Lebanon . The cut-and-run tactic that some advocate will have its disastrous consequences for the region, as well as for America ’s prestige and credibility. Easing out of the quagmire while continuing to adhere to our long-running geopolitical rhetoric and presumptions that got us in there in the first place will also prove too costly and painful.
Let us see what lessons we have, or should have, learned from all the above.
1- In this age of information technology and heightened global awareness, deceptive tactics and fabricated scenarios used as pretexts to advance underlying objectives, no matter how shrewdly shrouded, will be exposed and challenged by those who are affected regionally and globally.
2- Force alone can no longer ensure victory even against a relatively small but dedicated group of combatants. Like mustard grass, as long as the deeper roots of the problems are not dealt with, no amount of superficial or surface trimming will keep the voices of resistance and defiance from emerging again and again.
3- Overestimating one’s own capabilities is as big a mistake as discounting the capacity of the enemy to withstand the harshest treatment.
The image of America that is projected globally these days is not conducive to America ’s best interests. America is now more widely hated than liked, and more feared than respected. The bigger problem is, the fear factor is rapidly diminishing as our ineffectiveness to implement our stated policies through force and intimidation becomes more apparent. Short of resorting to the unthinkable, unleashing the full force of America ’s military capabilities, the fear factor may not be restored. Yet, even the “unthinkable†will not ensure our supremacy in the long term, while in the short term it will create highly undesirable consequences for us.
Are there any solutions? Yes, there are solutions, to the extent that almost anything we do other than “staying the course†might be a great improvement. But, exaggerations aside, a serious reexamination of our policy trends is long overdue.
Three principle factors are always at play in the conduct of foreign policy: a- mission objectives, b- strategy and implementation, and c- public relations and diplomacy.
Looking at the current state of affairs, our diplomatic front is amateurishly transparent and in disarray, the Administration is increasingly mistrusted at home and abroad, and the President’s popularity has dropped to the level of incompetence. In other words, the American public, at least the pie-slice that has the time and the interest to be concerned with international affairs, is no longer under the illusion that we are heading the right way and doing the right thing.
The strategic decisions, planning and implementation of our military engagements in war on terror, have failed to produce the promised results. After nearly four years, the general consensus is that Americans are neither safer at home nor abroad, the original terrorists who started the whole thing are still at large, those whom we have labeled as terror organizations, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have survived and have even gained popularity, and the regimes we have been trying to bring down are increasingly emboldened, mindless of our muscle flexing. What’s more, the three Islamic countries that supplied all the terrorists who attacked us, namely Egypt , Saudi Arabia and Pakistan , are among our very few “friendly†allies!
America ’s officially stated mission objectives – combating terrorism and promoting freedom and democracy – were magical words that appealed to the souls of the angry, the innocent and the uninformed, those who were kind of heart, yet thirsty for revenge after the tragedy of 9/11. Alas, the true mission objectives of the Empire cannot be summarized in such naively candy wrapped and noble sounding terms.
By “officially stated objectives†I am implying here that the true objectives better be a hell of a lot more realistic and pragmatic than simplistic words that might appeal to the gullible masses whose average world affairs IQ faces an uphill battle to cross into triple digits.
I believe we should start by scrutinizing our mission objectives in this bold new century before it is too late. The think tank “Project for the New American Century†or PNAC, whose mission objectives for America were adopted by the current administration, have clearly demonstrated their worth, or their lack thereof. I do agree that the neoconservative political philosophy initially advocated by Leo Strauss does have its no-nonsense pragmatic approach to pursuing a nation’s best interests on the global stage. However, hijacked and adulterated by the current cabal of pseudo-neoconservatives that has been influencing our foreign policy decisions, America ’s genuine self-interests have been sold out to special interests with highly questionable loyalties. What is worse, proper attention was not given to the changing dynamics in the global arena, dynamics that are vastly different today from the rules of engagement during the post WW II decades.
I, therefore, maintain that we have failed on all three fronts – proper determination of America’s mission objectives, implementation of the objectives, as wrong as they have been, and effectively manipulating the public sentiments locally and worldwide in support of the Administration’s decisions. Where did we go wrong?
Contrary to what the “pseudo-neoconsâ€, if I may coin a new term here, maintain, the world is not a unipolar world with America as the master of this universe. The world that used to be basically bipolar during the decades of the Cold War is now multipolar, where dominance through military power is being effectively neutralized by the economic potentials of huge population blocks.
Through all this, the true objective of any people, nation or empire still remains the same; pursuing ones best interests by any means possible and as far as possible, as long as the costs of the pursuit do not outbalance the expected gains. Determining a nation’s best interests worth pursing, charting the best course in that direction, and judging the balance between losses and gains, are tasks that governments, whether democracies or dictatorships and theocracies, must carry out with dedication and diligence.
It would be unwise to start by assuming that there are leaders or governments that are fundamentally incapable of judging their nation’s best interests or, at the very least, their own self interests as the ruling class, juntas or dictatorships. In either case, labeling others as fanatics, crazies, or other degrading terms might serve the propaganda machinery to orient the public’s sentiments in a desired direction, but should not be allowed to interfere with decision-making processes at the highest levels.
Just as America has its vested interests to protect and to promote in the world, particularly in the Middle East, so do others, especially the local powerhouse, Iran , the country that is currently the focus of the Administration’s concern and attention. And, herein lies the focus of this article.
On top of the list of America ’s realistic and legitimate interests in the Middle East is the control over the production, pricing and marketing of the region’s oil and gas resources. This control is not only critical for safeguarding the flow of oil to the Western allies, but to make it as difficult as possible for the West’s global competitors like China and India to have access to abundant energy resources.
This ambitious agenda has traditionally been implemented through the creation or maintenance of “friendly†regional regimes whose “compliance†to our demands would guarantee their own respective best interests. It, therefore, should not surprise anyone that the promotion of democratic reforms and self determination for the populations in the strategically located oil-rich countries will not guarantee either friendliness or compliance. The best solution has always been to support willing dictatorships whose ability to control their populations effectively ensured their own grip on power. The secret to continued success was to find the right kind of dictatorship that would follow our guidelines as how to deal with dissidence or what measures to adopt to implement proper socioeconomic reforms in order to maintain stability. Stability here simply implies not allowing any change to take place that might have the potential to weaken their bonds of dependency to us.
Iran before the 1979 revolution was a perfect example of this kind of managed cooperation. Egypt , Saudi Arabia , Turkey , Jordan , Kuwait and the Persian Gulf Emirates still are. The initial support for the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran was intended to ensure a continuation of what was thought to be a mutually beneficial relationship between the United States and Iran . It had become increasingly clear that the monarchy’s ability to maintain control over the rising public awareness and angst against the regime’s excesses was no longer tenable. The choice was for the United States to support the monarchy in cracking down on the Islamic movement, which meant a nationwide bloodbath without even an assurance of ultimate success, or to allow the uprising to culminate into a viable political system, theocratic or otherwise, and hope to deal with the new powerbase. What was not taken into account seriously then, and is not being seriously considered to this day, is the vulnerability of established paradigms.
Paradigms Lost!
The Islamic revolution of 1978-79 in Iran succeeded in displacing the pro-West monarchy for one simple reason: the masses that created the tidal wave were not sophisticated enough to know that they weren’t supposed to succeed! They were not “educated†enough to understand the paradigm.
The paradigm at the time was that no significant political or social sea change could ever take place in the region without the consent of the global masters, principally the United States and Great Britain . This established mindset was so prevalent among the better educated and Western oriented aristocracy that, to this day, many among them believe there continue to be behind the scenes corroborations between Iran ’s theocratic leadership and the centers of power in the West. “Don’t you know? They know what they are doing; they are all in it together.â€
Other long-established paradigms that were challenged and brought down to the level of myths include the invincibility of the mighty Soviet Union , the empire whose fragile inner skeleton could no longer sustain that façade. Then followed America ’s unilateral adventurism in the Middle East , which was fueled by yet another paradigm, the paradigm of easy victory when the irresistible force confronts movable objects. Much to our surprise, the chickens no longer ran to hide when the hawk appeared overhead.
The most recent paradigm that was shattered was that of Israel ’s indomitable military prominence, supposedly capable of defeating the combined forces of all Israel ’s antagonists in the region. The Biblical David that has now grown to become a Super Goliath was kept from accomplishing its objectives by a band of little Davids armed with slings that threw Katyushas instead of pebbles at the beast.
Israel will now declare victory and lick its wounds while its arch enemy, Iran , is pouring cash money into the Lebanese Hezbollah to help rebuild what the mighty army of the modern day Goliath had destroyed.
What will happen in Iraq is now everyone’s guess. Can the United States accomplish what it set out to do three and a half years ago, declare victory and get out of that mess in a face-saving manner? Certainly not, if we insist on staying the course!
Iran Rising
Today, Iran will be officially responding to the proposal by the Group of 5+1 offering “generous†incentives if Iran agrees to stop all its uranium enrichment activities. By the end of August, the Security Council will also be evaluating options as to how to deal with Iran should Iran refuse to halt its nuclear activities. There shouldn’t be any surprise if Iran ’s response turns out to be quite a bit less than total compliance. Is Iran ’s defiance to bow to the demands of the Western powers a well calculated maneuver, a dangerously daring exercise, or is it a huge mistake by those suicidal maniacs as portrayed by the Western media?
If we feel more comfortable believing our official Administration rhetoric regarding Iran , or find the portrayals of Iran and its leadership presented in our news media not only credible, but even entertaining enough to deserve our attention, then our choice of options will be quite clear. In that case, the question that remains is how to carry out the mission of bringing the Iranian regime to submission; will it be by the use of military force, economic strangulation, or by inciting internal dissent and violence to destabilize the system and corrode it from within.
Those who believe that our “war on terror†in Afghanistan and Iraq has been a success story, similar to Israel’s “success†in defeating the Hezbollah organization, would definitely opt for an all-out military assault on Iran by a combined Israeli and American aerial attack, followed by a massive land invasion. The more cautious might prefer a more subtle approach.
The Paradigm, however, remains unchanged: The Islamic Republic of Iran is regarded as a danger to the stability of the region, an existential threat to Israel , and a potential threat to the security of Europe and the United States . Again, it seems to make little difference how much of this portrayal is the work of the Israeli regime and its supporters in the United States, how much fomented by Iran’s Arab neighbors who are understandably worried about the rise of Shi’ism in the region, or how much is actually based on realistic concerns. While practically everyone agrees that Iran is a major problem, there are disagreements as to the methods and tactics of dealing with the problem.
But, is Iran a “problem†in the true sense of the word?
Our attack on Afghanistan and the removal of the Taliban from power, in which the Iranian military and money were more than a little helpful, also removed the dominance of this Sunni tribe over the affairs of Iran ’s eastern neighbor, opening the ground for increased Iranian influence. Now there appears to be a new resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and an intensification of fighting between the coalition forces and the Pushtun tribe supporters of the insurgents who are funded by Saudi money and receive assistance from and are sheltered in Pakistan .
The Pakistani regime, meanwhile, has been engaged in a delicate balancing act. On the one hand, General Musharraf’s military regime owes its survival to its cooperation with the United States in its “war on terror.†On the other hand, the powerful Pushtun tribe that is the host to the Taliban and shelters the Al Gha’eda organization is far too influential for the regime to be brought under control. In addition, General Musharraf must know fully well that America ’s support for his dictatorial regime, including his nuclear weapons development, will last as long as he remains useful as an ally of the West on the war on terror. Ironically, Pakistan ’s continuing reputation as the headwaters of anti Western Islamic extremism is helping the regime maintain its position as an indispensable Western ally. The question is, what could possibly prevent the hotheaded young graduates of the Wahabi madrassas from gaining access to nuclear weapons or “dirty bombs†someday soon to add a new dimension to anti Western terrorism?
In short, by confronting the Taliban in Afghanistan and keeping the Pushtun at bay in Pakistan , we are in effect increasing Iran ’s domain of influence on its eastern flank.
In Iraq, Iran’s western neighbor, the fall of Iran’s enemy, Saddam Hussein’s Ba’thist regime, and the rise of the Shi’as have been an obvious victory for the Islamic Republic of Iran; a trend that is not possible to reverse anytime soon.
Israel ’s self-defeating recent attack on Lebanon created another bigger than life champion, a second Saladin, in the leader of the Shi’a Hezbollah, a friend and client of the Iranian regime. Chalk up yet another plus for Iranian prestige and regional influence!
Turkey , America ’s major ally to Iran ’s northwest, has a common cause with the Islamic Republic in fighting the Kurdish separatists who have gained new impetus in Iraq with hopes of creating an independent Kurdistan sitting on some of the biggest oil fields in the region. Turkey , with its nearly 25% Kurdish population in the southeast, cannot tolerate such eventuality. Turkey needs Iran ’s help against any Kurdish insurgency, as well as the revenues it collects as a conduit for the export of the Iranian oil to Europe and the import of European goods into Iran .
What is clearly evident is Iran ’s increasingly stronger position as the regional power and political influence. Now, if we could only channel that rising power and influence to our advantage, or even more realistically, to our mutual advantage! Or, are the dogs of war barking too loud these days, drowning the voice of dispassionate reason and pragmatic self-interest?
What are America ’s self interests in the Middle East arena? Let us make a short list:
1- Maintaining reasonable control over the flow of oil from the region, as well as related economic factors.
2- Ensuring the security of the United States and its interests at home and abroad by reducing the danger of terrorist attacks from potential sources in that region.
What might be Iran ’s realistic self interests? To answer that question objectively, we must resist the urge to rely on the entertainment media that force-feed us with sensationalized distorted imageries in the name of journalism.
No, the Iranian President Ahmadinejad never said that Iran intends to “wipe Israel off the face of the map!†And, he never declared that “Holocaust never happened.†The Jews and other religious minorities in Iran are not required to wear special insignia on their garments to identify them as Jews or Christians. The grand champion of freedom of expression, the Iranian writer, Akbar Ganji, who spent time in prison in Tehran and gained international fame by going on the hunger strike that nearly cost him his life, is currently on a world tour, has received the prestigious Golden Pen award, and continues to voice his criticism of the Islamic regime to huge audiences. How did he manage to do all that?
How did the writer Azar Nafisi of “Reading Lolita in Tehran†fame a well-known dissident and a Benador Associates client, manage to get out of Iran with her husband and what they owned with no problem? A very close relative of mine, a young lady, tired of what she called mistreatment by her husband, filed for divorce in a Tehran court recently and was granted, not only fully one-half of what the couple mutually owned, but also the formal custody of their two children. So, what is the real Iran like? It is certainly no paradise by any stretch of imagination; but is it as bad as we are being told?
Now in comparison, what about the Israeli dissident scientist, Mordechai Vannunu, the fellow who leaked the news nearly twenty years ago about Israel’s secret nuclear weapons programs, and has been in jail or under house arrest ever since? Unlike Mr. Akbar Ganji, Vannunu is not allowed to leave the country under any circumstances! And, what about tens of thousands of political prisoners in Israel , most held for years without charges or hearings? Which state is the bigger violator of the principles of human rights, pray tell?
It is, therefore, necessary to take what we see or hear in the name of journalism with more than just a small grain of salt. Perhaps now, with a bit more skepticism about the nature of the news we are exposed to, we might examine what could constitute Iran ’s main interests.
1- On top of the list we must mention Iran ’s security and territorial integrity.
2- A reopening of economic and diplomatic relations with the West.
3- Implementation of more liberal democratic reforms.
Could it be that the interests of the United States and Iran are not mutually exclusive?
No, not if we believe what we have been exposed to by our media elites or by the official statements by the Administration. Similarly, the Iranian media have also been creating an atmosphere of fear and mistrust against the intentions of the United States toward that country.
The President, in his news conference yesterday, repeated America ’s concerns over the “ideology†in the Islamic Middle East that challenges our very civilization. This ideology stems from an Islamic zealotry that is the hallmark of radical Sunni Wahabism as demonstrated, first and foremost, by the Al Gha’eda movement. The perpetrators of the attack on the Twin Towers were Sunni zealots from Saudi Arabia and Egypt . The Kashmiri fighters that evolved into the Taliban movement were and are funded by the Sunni Wahabis and trained and armed by the Sunni Pushtun of Pakistan.
The sectarian violence that is increasingly rampant in Iraq , resulting in deaths and injuries to hundreds on a daily basis is Sunni instigated, aimed at creating greater anxieties among the Shi’a majorities in order to lead to a protracted civil war. The President mentioned that in yesterday’s news conference. The recent arrests in Great Britain of two dozen suspects who were supposedly planning a major terror act point, again, to an “ideology†that has its roots in the Sunni madrassas of Pakistan and the seminaries of Saudi Arabia .
Now, where can we find a Shi’a “ideology†that we could blame for mayhem and terrorism? Yes, the Shi’a have also been involved in acts of violence; but that violence or militancy has always had a purely sectarian military purpose, which is quite a separate concept from any religious ideology.
The “ideology†that the President talked about has had severe impacts against Iran and Iranian interests in the region, starting from the Taliban and the Pushtun animosities toward Iran in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to strikes against the Shi’a in Iraq and the destruction of the Shi’a’s holiest shrines and the targeting of the Iranian pilgrims in that country.
So, in the war against this dreaded “ideologyâ€, Iran and the United States stand on the same side.
With regard to the threat of proliferation of nuclear weapons, Iran stands to lose a great deal more than does the United States . There are currently two nuclear states in the region; Israel and Pakistan . The former is a trigger-happy, paranoid state that is likely to use any pretext to advance its agendas in the region. The Israeli Likud regime has demonstrated, time and again, that it would go to any length to torpedo any effort by the international community or the United States to accept a two-state solution to the 60 years’ long occupation of the Palestinian lands. After all, why should Israel do what it feels is not to its advantage, when it has the option not to?
The fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran had already kicked out Yasser Arafat’s PLO out of Iran as the representative of the Palestinian people, when Israel invaded Lebanon and started its two-decades-long occupation of the Shi’ite south Lebanon . The animosity between Israel and Iran intensified and the Israeli lobby’s efforts to demonize Iran as an enemy of the United States began in earnest. Iran has, with great justification, put the blame on the Israeli influence on the American administrations, both Democrat and Republican, for the lack of any rapprochement between the two states.
Israel has two huge advantages in the region; America ’s diplomatic, military and economic support; plus its possession of the ultimate weapon, the nuclear bomb. With its perennial enemies, the Arab countries, and its formidable newer foe, Iran , the Israeli nuclear capabilities alone is reason enough for the regional states to develop their own deterrents in kind. If this is not an incentive for the proliferation of nuclear weapons, I don’t know what is!
On the other side is Pakistan with its nuclear weapons. Iran might well be praying for the Al Gha’eda threat to remain intact so that General Musharraf’s military junta stays in power with America ’s help to keep atomic weapons or dirty bombs from falling into the wrong hands; that would be the worst kind of nuclear proliferation that Iran would like.
For Iran , a nuclear-free Middle East would be a blessing. Regarding the spirit of nuclear non proliferation, again, Iran and the United States seem to be on the same side.
The odd man out!
With Iran on our side, the sectarian violence or insurgency that is ripping Iraq apart and is costing the United States lives, money and international reputation, would have a chance of ending its destabilizing path. In that, Turkey , an American ally, will also gladly share in order to control its own Kurdish problems. The results, in the earlier phases, would not resemble an Iraqi democracy as George W. Bush envisions. However, a true democracy, as I have mentioned before, is not what would serve our best interests in that region, anyway.
The oil-rich states of the Persian Gulf have no realistic choice but to continue their subordinate roles as “friends†and “moderates†to serve our interests. Whether or not a symbiotic relationship between the United States and Iran is to the long-term benefit of the Arab states is of relatively little concern when compared to their fate when Iran is on the opposite side.
In confronting the anti-American and anti-West militancy emanating from the hard-core Pakistani Sunni tribes, or combating the new insurgencies by the Taliban in Afghanistan , Iran and the United States , again, share a common cause.
This leaves us with the real odd man out, Israel ; the last and the most difficult paradigm to debunk, namely, Israel as the friend of the United States !
What if we c