ROUND-UP: 2006 Election Predictions
This weekend, President Bush said, “Oh, you’ve probably heard them in Washington — all the pundits and prognosticators have already determined the outcome of the election.”
For those who didn’t hear the prognosticators, we’ve compiled a list of 2006 election predictions. Predictions are listed from most favorable to Republicans at the top to most favorable to Democrats at the bottom:
Mark Noonan, Blogs for Bush
I’ve been talking big about how well we’re going to do and my faith, shaken from time to time, never failed. Now it is to be put to the acid test - we shall know within 24 hours of this writing if I’ve been whistling past the graveyard, or have been realistic in my predictions. I’m standing by my words: the GOP gains seats in both Houses. [11/7/06]
Karl Rove, White House adviser
I’m looking at all of these [races] and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I’m entitled to the math. [10/24/06]
Michael Novak, National Review
The Left is going to lose - big - because they have nothing noble, nothing beautiful, nothing real, nothing true, with which to lead. They are the merchants of illusion. And a significant majority of Americans, although not all, see through them. In a democratic election, however, it only takes a small majority to win. And the upcoming election of 2006 is not likely to be all that close. The Democrats piqued too soon. Just watch. [6/15/06]
Kathryn Jean Lopez, National Review
I’m putting my money on Republicans miraculously (not totally deservingly, but it’s not about deserving it) keeping the House and the Senate, painfully narrowly. [11/7/06]
Barron’s magazine
Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. [10/23/06]
Vice President Dick Cheney
I think we’re going to do reasonably well. And I think we’ll hold the Senate, and I also think we got a good shot at holding the House. [10/17/06]
Jonah Goldberg, National Review
House: Dems +17 (whatever that math means).
Senate: R 53 - D 47.
Steele wins, Corker wins, Webb-Allen won’t be decided until recounts are finished, at which point Allen wins very narrowly. Chafee comes very close. [11/7/06]
Robert Novak, columnist
In the final Evans-Novak report about the upcoming election, Democrats will gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and almost half a dozen governorships in what is predicted to be the possible end of Republican Congressional control. [11/6/06]
Donna Brazile, Democratic Strategist
[Democrats win] 23 seats [in the House]. I haven’t gotten to 25 yet. But I predict that Democrats will come close to picking up the Senate at well - 29 gubernatorial seats. Right now a solid five [seats in the Senate]. I’m working on that sixth one. [11/5/06]
George Will, columnist
“I think [Democrats] will get maybe a tie in the Senate [five seats] which means Mr. Cheney will spend a lot of time in the chair breaking ties. And I would expect the Democrats to have a majority of about 10 seats which has been the average majority in the House for the Republicans for the last six elections. [11/5/06]
Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard
Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)
House: 210 (R), 225 (D)
Dark Horse: Conrad Burns holds on in Montana. [11/03/06]
George Stephanopoulos, ABC News
Democrats pick up 25 seats in the House, fall just shy in the Senate, picking up five. [11/5/06]
Cook Political Report
Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor’s races. [11/6/06]
Stu Rothenberg, political analyst
Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gain of 30-36 seats.
Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gains of 4-7 seats. [11/6/06]
Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics
THE HOUSE: +29 Dems = 232D, 203R
THE SENATE: +6 Dems = 51D, 49R [11/6/06]
Joe Trippi, Democratic Strategist
I think the House is going to be really big — at the upper end of some of the numbers. It could easily be 35 seats won by the Democrats. The Senate is the one that’s tough to predict because it really could go either way. I could see anything from Democrats only gaining four or five seats to gaining eight seats. That’s possible, but my guess is that Democrats are going to come up a seat or two short in the Senate. [11/6/06]
William Kristol, Weekly Standard
Senate: 48 (R), 52 (D)
House: 192 (R), 243 (D)
Dark Horse: Anti-immigration stance backfires with Republican meltdown in Arizona and Colorado. [11/03/06]
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45 Responses to “ROUND-UP: 2006 Election Predictions”
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I’m standing by my words: the GOP gains seats in both Houses.
I hope not, not just because it gives Bush a blank check for two more years but because the Dems will SCREAM that the vote was rigged and since no one knows how to count votes with all these machines, no one will be able to tell them they’re wrong. When you can’t be certain that your votes are being counted….. we’ll be headed for BAD TIMES…. riots in the streets and martial law kind of BAD.
November 7th, 2006 at 1:58 pmThe Republicans are in their last throes, if you will.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:01 pmThe first one is precious! The GOP gains seats in both houses. From where? I needed a good laugh….
November 7th, 2006 at 2:03 pmI swear to God, if the Dems do not @ least gain the House, then something is rotten in Amerika. We need to go to the streets and protest this crap.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:06 pmI hope not, not just because it gives Bush a blank check for two more years but because the Dems will SCREAM that the vote was rigged and since no one knows how to count votes with all these machines, no one will be able to tell them they’re wrong. Swordsbane
Well, thanks for showing us all the depths of your ambivalence towards democrats and republicans - but why did you naturally assume the democrats would be wrong? I’ve been reading your fake centrist stuff for a while now, and have to wonder why someone hasn’t called you on it before now.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:08 pmJudging by this morning’s problems, they all might be right. Unfortunately.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:09 pmRemember, friends. Pay close attention to the exit polls, particularly in disputed races. When exit polls suggest the Dems are winning, expect the repubs to counter with “exit polls are so unreliable”-crap! Exit polls are what our government insists should be used to make sure elections in other countries are fair. They cannot start denouncing them now (even though they have been).
And let’s all have our e-mails to these pundits ready when they are proven wrong. Ask them why anyone should believe anything they say.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:10 pmFor the GOP, 2006 isn’t a popularity contest. The Republican strategy for victory hinges on turning out their base while ensuring potential Democratic voters stay home.
Call it “Divide, Suppress and Conquer.”
November 7th, 2006 at 2:10 pm#3 - Amyfw,
November 7th, 2006 at 2:11 pmThey plan to take their office furiture home with them.
Isn’t he the chief neo-con who operates out of American Enterprise Institute (AEI)?
November 7th, 2006 at 2:13 pmIf they turn out to be right then we know with certainty that we live in the Fourth Reich and the consitution is dead.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:15 pmMichael Novak, National Review
The Left is going to lose - big - because they have nothing noble, nothing beautiful, nothing real, nothing true, with which to lead. They are the merchants of illusion.
Typical hallucinatory Republican projection.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:16 pmWell, thanks for showing us all the depths of your ambivalence towards democrats and republicans - but why did you naturally assume the democrats would be wrong? I’ve been reading your fake centrist stuff for a while now, and have to wonder why someone hasn’t called you on it before now.
Comment by barfly — November 7, 2006 @ 2:08 pm
Because, if we could show them they’re right, then the same thing would happen. I was making a point, the point being we can’t tell what the hell is going on with our votes. Everyone with a brain expects the Democrats to landslide it to a majority in both the houses. If that happens, then you MIGHT be able to convince everyone that everything is fine in spite of the cock-up. If that doesn’t happen, then I don’t know what’s going to happen, but it will certainly be more than mild protest.
And no, I’m not ambivalent towards Reps and Dems, I hate them both. I wish that some OTHER party would win a majority.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:19 pmThe republicans spokespeople are just laying the groundwork for their fraud operation so that when they do manage to steal a couple of precints they can always point to their internal polls and say - look we said this was happening. It is electoral fraud plain and simple.
However, I think the Democratic turn out is too high and the republican turn out too low for them to get away with it this time. But, many seats that should have been 7 to 10 point blow outs will instead squeak by at 2 points.
America’s electoral system is corrupted. The GOP has corrupted it, and it is something that every one that loves America, Democrat or Independent should put to the top of their political agenda for the forseable future. Until the specter of voter intimidation, harassement and fraud has been banished from the public sphere. Christ it is like we are living in the 1880s.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:19 pmALL MACHINES MUST ALL HAVE PAPER TRAIL BY 2008. OR ELSE THIS IS NOT A DEMOCRACY ANYMORE.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:21 pm[…] (Hat tip to Think Progress) […]
November 7th, 2006 at 2:22 pm#11,
If the Repugs are stealing the election, why are any of you voting anyways? I would encourage each and everyone of you to call all your Dem friends and tell them there vote doesn’t matter. If this is what you truly believe, there really is no reason to actually vote. Then again, my call is your lying to yourselves and you all will vote. If you vote, then you believe that the elections aren’t being stolen.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:22 pmI agree…these are priceless!
November 7th, 2006 at 2:23 pmI’d suggest paying close attention to the Kristol quote above: Anti-immigration stance backfires with Republican meltdown in Arizona and Colorado.
First, of course, it’s not “anti-immigration”, it’s anti-illegal immigration.
And, paradoxically, if the GOP loses the House it would help Bush with his primary goal right after Iraq: a massive amnesty that would flood the U.S. with the cheap labor that his corporate backers want.
The GOP keeping the House would actually hurt Bush and hacks like Kristol.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:25 pmRoger_Roger
If enough people vote, and an eye is kept to the census data :- there is a chance the Republicans will slip up, turn the result ludicrous and force a full scale FBI investigation into vote rigging. If that happens neither party wins, but possibly a re-take of the elections, with paper ballots counted under UN administration may be possible.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:30 pmALL MACHINES MUST ALL HAVE PAPER TRAIL BY 2008. OR ELSE THIS IS NOT A DEMOCRACY ANYMORE.
Also, all keyboards must only type in caps, otherwise this isn’t a democracy.
#7 Wayne
November 7th, 2006 at 2:30 pmexit polling for presidential elections has been biased towards the democrats since ‘92.
#11,
If the Repugs are stealing the election, why are any of you voting anyways? I would encourage each and everyone of you to call all your Dem friends and tell them there vote doesn’t matter. If this is what you truly believe, there really is no reason to actually vote. Then again, my call is your lying to yourselves and you all will vote. If you vote, then you believe that the elections aren’t being stolen.
Comment by Roger_Roger — November 7, 2006 @ 2:22 pm
The Reps are TRYING to steal it, but all they’ve been able to do (I hope) is muddle things up so we argue about it when it’s over. Then they have a chance to swing it back to them. The danger now is that it doesn’t matter if they steal it or they cock it up so badly that they get lucky and win. Everyone else is going to SAY they stole the election and then all bets are off. It will be the first real challenge this country has had to the idea that “It can’t happen here! This is America!” You better hope that faith is well placed.
As to why vote? Simple.. In case I’m wrong, and our votes do matter. Anyway, I prefer to go down swinging if I might go down at all.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:32 pmre#1
A perfect voting system is as easy as 123:
1. Districts mails ballots to registered voters.
2. Registered voter marks choices.
3. Registered voters mails back or drops ballots.
With randomly numbered ballots you can verify from public list that your ballot was ACTUALLY counted, and have the vote total corrected if it was not, since you and only you knows the random ballot number.
People with invalid registrations, know way before election day, by virtue of not being mailed a ballot, and therefore they have weeks to go to city hall and correct the registration, and pick up a random numbered ballot out a box, so that the election officials cannot match your name to ballot number, just like they cannot for the mailed ballots.
If you do not trust the mail, you can drop off your ballot yourself in a see thru box at the election office, and keep the ballots under 24 by 7 internet web cam coverage and surveillence videotape.
Count the ballots in open public view since only the random numbers and not names are on them, so privacy is assured.
Repeat the count until you get the same total three times in a row.
Post the results in public list by random number.
Voters have a period of time to contest, the recording of a vote, by producing their carbon copy of the ballot cast, which shows the original ballot markings.
Post the correct results in public list by random number, and the election is certified and done.
The voting problem, just like every other one, can be solved when you use your brain and think like the election officials in Oregon, or accept the fact that you do not REALLY want fair elections!
November 7th, 2006 at 2:34 pmJust remember guys… if the first prediction holds true when we all know it is false based on the will of the people, there’s only one way for us to protest it…. and that isn’t on an online forum.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:34 pmIt’s good to see that they are all in agreement.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:35 pmI guess we’ll all find out tonight.
with paper ballots counted under UN administration may be possible.
OUCH!
November 7th, 2006 at 2:38 pmI’m coming Elizabeth!!
The Democrats piqued too soon.
If Michael Novak actually wrote these words, then it shows yet again what a moron he is, for not using the proper word “peaked” instead of “piqued.” As a matter of fact, the Democrats were piqued about 6 years ago, and that pique has continued unabated (and has continued to grow) ever since.
Someone please ask Michael and the rest of the reich wingnut scribes to be sure to hide their ignorance a little better next time…tomorrow, he’s going to be exposed not only as a poor writer, but also as a poor loser (and a poor predicter-or, as the Decider would say…).
November 7th, 2006 at 2:40 pmThe baby killing war mongers are at their best so far this week….
Melhman saying its only the Democrats who harrass voters….
Lynne Cheney doing her poor me and my nice husband are being bullied by the mean old mean old left wing media on O’Leilly last night….
Time to pay for your crimes scumbags.
Screw the promises. Let’s get the house and senate and start the impeachment process now!
November 7th, 2006 at 2:42 pmWell I just got back from voting. When I was standing in line at the door an older lady was having her paper ballot fed into the machine over and over while someone was trying to help. Finally they needed to look at her ballot to see what was wrong. The republican said they needed to get a democrat there before they could look at it to help her… a bad machine but at least the republican was being honest.
I heard an older guy (almost everyone there was in their 50s + ) and he was proudly saying how he was a democrat and just needed to see how to vote straight democrat.
I found out that Richard Lugar (R-IN) didnt have a democratic challenger at all (some libertarian instead).
over all very low key…
November 7th, 2006 at 2:44 pmI think that one big story coming out of this election, regardless of who wins, is going to be high youth voter turnout. There are huge youth voter mobilization campaigns going on right now across the country, and politicians ignore young voters at their own peril.
I work with the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project, a non-partisan turnout effort targeted at young voters, and just from what I’ve heard about and seen on some of the campuses where we’re turning out the vote, there’s a huge buzz about this election and students are doing some really creative things to get their peers to the polls. Students are running all-day phone banks, canvassing dormitories and student neighborhoods, and making presentations in lecture halls. They’ve already registered 75,000 new voters and will be making 20,000 personalized get out the vote reminders just today alone.
Already, we’re seeing signs of high turnout in youth-heavy districts: I just heard that the on-campus polling place at the University of New Mexico is seeing the highest turnout that pollworkers there can remember. At University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire, more than 100 students are waiting in line to vote. At UMass, the campus polling place saw more voters this morning than they usually see all day.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:45 pmComment by criticalthinker — November 7, 2006 @ 2:34 pm
Interesting Idea and I feel it has some merits, The only problem I see is the millions of “Oh Wait, let me switch my vote because I have 3 weeks” crew.
“I don’t know what happened, that’s not how I wanted my vote counted”
“I never voted for that proposal like the list says I did”
Dig through and produce ballot
“That’s not what I meant though, Change it”
Losing candidates fighting to get people to change their vote after the election. Blogs firing up people to switch later.
a month or two later we will still be sifting through ballots (A better alternative, I don’t know)
November 7th, 2006 at 2:45 pmRoger x2
You are an idiot. GOP tactics include voter suppression through calls telling them they will be arrested if they vote (Macaca Virgina), and suppressing Democrat voter turnout by any means.
If an over-whelming number of Democrats turn out to vote, then no matter how many votes are suppressed, they will not add up to enough of a total to swing the vote to GOP.
That is why we vote.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:46 pmThey’re either hell-bent propagandists, with no regard for truth, reality, or fairness; or, they’re so certain because the know “the fix” is in; or BOTH.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:52 pmre#32
The ballot is two part carbonless paper, so that the voter copy and orginal ballot must line up perfectly, it the vote has not been changed.
November 7th, 2006 at 2:52 pmIf you haven’t read it yet…
Greg Palast - How They Stole the 2006 Midterm Elections
November 7th, 2006 at 3:01 pm#33,
oh, so you are only concerned with voter suppression. Your stories about how the elections are rigged and stolen are truly lies. While I understand both parties attempt to suppress the other side from voting, I do not believe that either party is actually rigging the election itself. Hell, Daily Kos today asked that all its readers only call those that would vote Dem. That is also a form of suppression. Either way, both sides are slimey and evil.
November 7th, 2006 at 3:09 pm35
I like your ideas on voting reform.
Instead of just checking a box, the voter could write the name of the candidate they are voting for and “yes” or “no” for issues. It would be harder to alter a handwritten response like this.
November 7th, 2006 at 3:10 pm…hold this……ok….(excuse me I’m measuring drapes)…ok..got it.
November 7th, 2006 at 3:25 pmcan’t talk now, I helping measure drapes…..
November 7th, 2006 at 3:28 pmI thought you might want to check out Compete.com’s blog today that features information from a survey of people who have visited popular political websites in the past few months. It compares their claims to party affiliation to what their internet behavior says about them. Yesterday and Friday’s postings also look at traffic to popular political blogs and what that indicates. There are some interesting trends.
http://blog.compete.com/ index.php/ 2006/ 11/ 07/ election-day-president-bush-wingnuts-moonbats-iraq/
http://blog.compete.com
November 7th, 2006 at 3:31 pmSee they all admit that the GOP is committing vote fraud to keep control of the House and Senate! No way the GOP picks up more seats > only massive cheating can achieve that outcome!
November 7th, 2006 at 3:32 pmI thought you might want to check out Compete.com’s blog today that features information from a survey of people who have visited popular political websites in the past few months. It compares their claims to party affiliation to what their internet behavior says about them. Yesterday and Friday’s postings also look at traffic to popular political blogs and what that indicates. There are some interesting trends.
blog.compete.com/index.php/2006/11/07/election-day-president-bush-wingnuts-moonbats-iraq/
blog.compete.com
November 7th, 2006 at 3:33 pmJust to let you know. In CT, voter turn out is strong. I voted today in Milford, CT and in addition to strong numbers of people I noticed something else. Joe L.’s name is way at the bottom of the voting booth. Hard to find (and I looked for it!). He’s below the Green Party, for gods sake. And he’s there by himself. Guess what? That’s gonna cost him tons of votes. Lamont is the in the second row with the other democrats and he’s the only big recognizable name you see until you get to Joe at the end. Lamont wins in a close one…
November 7th, 2006 at 3:48 pmhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/ articles/ 2006/ 11/ the_only_issue_this_election_d.html
November 7th, 2006 at 8:13 pm[…] Rove said prior to the midterm elections that he had “the math” to prove the Republicans would win back the House and Senate. Rove’s predictions were proved wrong, earning him a public sniping at the hands of President Bush who said: “I obviously was working harder in the campaign than he was.” […]
November 17th, 2006 at 3:11 pm