BREAKING: Iraq National Intelligence Estimate Released
BREAKING: Iraq National Intelligence Estimate Released
The key judgments of the long-delayed Iraq National Intelligence Estimate have been released. Read them HERE. Below, some important findings:
The term “civil war” “accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict,” though it “does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict”:
The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.
Iran is “not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability”:
Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics. Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq.
The overall security situation “will continue to deteriorate” in next 12-18 months
Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.
“Rapid withdrawal” of U.S. forces would likely lead to a “significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq”:
Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq. If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.
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Oh boy…
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:07 amThe timeline is 18 mos. Just in time for GWB to get out.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:10 amBubble Boy Bush should get a medal from Muqtada al-Sadr …..
U.S. training made Shiite militia stronger
BAGHDAD — The U.S. military’s efforts to train and equip Iraq’s security forces have unwittingly strengthened the al-Mahdi Army militia, which has been battling to take over much of the capital as U.S. forces try to secure it.
U.S. Army commanders and enlisted men who are patrolling east Baghdad said the militia, which is loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, had heavily infiltrated the Iraqi police and army units that the Americans have trained and armed.
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/world/16605799.htm
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:11 amDouble speak. They really scrubbed this NIE. Its almost worthless.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:13 amU.S. training made Shiite militia stronger
BAGHDAD — The U.S. military’s efforts to train and equip Iraq’s security forces have unwittingly strengthened the al-Mahdi Army militia, which has been battling to take over much of the capital as U.S. forces try to secure it.
U.S. Army commanders and enlisted men who are patrolling east Baghdad said the militia, which is loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, had heavily infiltrated the Iraqi police and army units that the Americans have trained and armed.
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/world/16605799.htm
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:14 amTRANSLATION:
Occupation forces/Bush Middle East policy objectives in DEEP SH*T!
…don’t tell Barney and Laura though…
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:14 amSo then it’s worse than a civil war.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:17 amThe NIE states that the term civil war “accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict,†though it says it “does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflictâ€:
I agree. I think a more accurate description of the complexity of the conflict would be “cluster f*#k”.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:18 amIs Chimpy working on a way to ignore this report as well?
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:26 amSo it’s a three course meal of inter-communal conflict, sectarian civil war, an anti-occupation resistance with a side of foreign terrorist opportunism.
A balanced diet of disaster.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:28 amThe report does make one point: Them suckers is fighting among themselves and will keep doing it until another Sadam comes along and kicks some ass.
Umfortunately, the report says what we have known all along. The US has no damn business there except the Cheney/Daddy Oil Company Business.
Impeach Bush because of his WMD (Wrong Moral Decisions).
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:30 amIraq and Saddam sat on a wall,
We toppled Saddam and Iraq – she did fall.
All King George’s horses and all of his men,
Couldn’t put Iraq together again.
Oh yeah, and we fought a revolution so we wouldn’t ever have a King George.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:37 amFire all of these incompetents and order the next crew to implicate Iran.
-Deadeye Dick and The Decider
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:46 am#4
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:48 amyes, precisely double speak;
more imperialist opinions…
and the report still gives bush tid bits to play up the “Attack Iran” bit
Somehow they will only read two words who werent in the same sentence: Attack…Iran.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:51 amThe Iraq Document Center provides access to all the essential reports, documents and materials on the Iraq conflict, WMD and pre-war intelligence. From declassified NIEs and the reports of the Iraq Survey Group, the Robb-Silbermann Commission and the Senate Intel Committee to the Downing Street memos and key Bush speeches, it’s all there.
For more, visit:
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:07 pm“The Iraq Document Center.”
more imperialistic blabber
cut the gordam funding now, begin exit strategy.
and then pay Iraqis massive reperation
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:11 pm#9 Zooey
Is Chimpy working on a way to ignore this report as well?
Phoney McSnowjob is working on a ferocious spin for the report as we speak. His key point will be that the report backs up everything the president has been saying. Isn’t it obvious?
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:12 pmQuestion for Tony Snow – Does the NIE embolden our enemies?
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:12 pmIsn’t it obvious?
Comment by chimpeach
It’s all so clear to me now….
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:18 pm“Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq.”
We all know what we’ll be hearing all weekend – they’ll just drop the “Nonethless” and make it sound like it’s all Iran’s fault.
These days it’s all Iran Iran Iran.
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:18 pmI hope that the negative assessment on Iran has an impact, but lost in the News is hat we are rushing TWO carrier battlegroups to the Persian Gulf. the USS Ronald Reagan left over a week ago and the John C. Stennis is hauling ass across the Pacific to get into the region.
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-18756.html
http://www.navycompass.com/news/newsview.asp?c=205260
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=169007&Sn=BNEW&IssueID=29319
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:25 pmThis portion of the NIE tells us nothing that we haven’t already known. We’ve turned Iraq into a living hell, and whenever we leave, it will only get worse. The chances of the current dyfunctional Iraqi government and the Iraqi security forces to be able to perform some miracles and stop the violence from and within all sides are nil. The Bush administration and their associated minions are determined to bring Iran and Syria into this conflagration. I find it amazing, also, that blame is put on Iran and Syria for adding to the conflict in Iraq, but nothing is mentioned about Saudi Arabia…who have been funding the Sunni insurrection and more.
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:31 pmShhhh… we don’t talk about Saudi Arabia!
No matter how many checks they write to terrorists, we still invite them to the Western White House and give them big, sloppy wet kisses, full on the mouth.
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:37 pmThe redacted NIE is interesting for what it does not say.
– It does not say that an increase or surge in troops is one of the possible “developments [that] could reverse the negative trends” in Iraq.
– It does not say that slow or phased withdrawal of troops would worsen the sectarian violence.
What it does say — very clearly — is that “rapid withdrawal” of troops during the term of the estimate (12 to 18 months) would cause problems. It gives no clue regarding what the intelligence community thinks about slower, phased withdrawal or redeployment. Maybe that’s in the unredacted version.
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:43 pmIran has little to do with the violence? I’m shocked, shocked I tell you!
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:46 pmWhy didn’t they tell W about this? From what I’ve seem in announcements from the White House – this report comes as a complete surprise. Does ‘Bubble Boy’ mean anything to you?
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:47 pmBush administration seeks $245B for wars
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070202/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_war_funding;_ylt=AtwmMEnVorP4XwMDjPD6NfOyFz4D;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ–
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:48 pmWhy did it take them this long to come to these conclusions? This is crap most semi-educated people have known for awhile. Chimpy will simply ignore this report like the ISG. One thing lacking in the ISG, the intelligence estimate, and the non-binding resolutions…that it was completely unnecessary to go into Iraq in the first place. I know we;re there now, but lets see some freakin’ accountability. IMPEACH or STFU!!!!!!!!
February 2nd, 2007 at 12:55 pmOnce again, Bushco releases news on a Friday. Does he really believe we don’t notice? Considering there is a Super Bowl this weekend, he may be right.
February 2nd, 2007 at 1:03 pmThe first NIE, the 2nd NIE, AND the Senate Judiciary Committee all say the situation sucks.
Accept it and do something constructive about it!
February 2nd, 2007 at 7:11 pmsame crap anoher day ,nothing new same game plan search and destroy bring troops home ,same same vietnam we use lbj,s playbook in iraq nam , if iwasnt 62yearsold i would say we havent learned anything kill or be killed only thing is the troops are given one tour and get out of the chyt in iraq like playing russian roulettewith troopslives more you spin that revolver the closer you get to abody bag and allexpense paid trip home on ups cargo flight
February 4th, 2007 at 9:47 amThe justifications for iraq war is OBVIOUSLY a twisted lie, and sacrificing our young citizens for a LIE is EVIL, which took over the chimps weak and stupid mind. And then the war was moronically run with criminal negligence and ignorance, fanning it to the blaze it’s in today.
February 6th, 2007 at 12:58 amSo how does he get away with it when slick willy gets impeached for BSing a bunch of aholes prying into some harmless chicanery that’s none of their business anyway?? IT DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE. SOMETHING IS BROKEN HERE.
i say congress quit embarassing yourself and get off your freakin lazy sheepasses if only to stop implicitly approving epic-scale evil stupidity and criminality.
[...] “proponents of withdrawal” who recognize Iraq is in a civil war. The Pentagon and the intelligence community have declared Iraq a civil [...]
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