Think Progress

1 in 4.

By Nico Pitney on Mar 4th, 2007 at 8:57 am

1 in 4.

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) “said he recently spoke with Gen. David Petraeus, the new top military commander in Iraq, who told him the troop surge has only a one in four chance of succeeding.”



18 Responses to “1 in 4.”

  1. unbelievable says:

    I’d say that he’s very optimistic…


  2. wake-n-bake says:

    That’s only 25% for you flunkie trolls who don’t “do” science and math.

    Or, in other words, NO CHANCE IN HELL, really.


  3. Toonguy says:

    Gordon Smith has a long history of publicly being against something and making a great show of “soul-searching” before getting in line and marching lock-step with his Party leaders.


  4. jay severin has a small pen1s says:

    1 in 4. I like them there odds. I liken our Bush Administration use of statistics to that of being a Red Sox fan. Come September we need to only win 22 of 12 games to make the playoffs. Sometimes I feel like the Bush Administration has that same mentality.

    History will remember them for this:

    They took a five day victory over a third rate nation and turned it into a five year tie with a third world nation.

    That’s brutal. It’s especially egregious that so many conservatives are still on the Iraq bandwagon. It’s for oil boys and girls.


  5. David O. says:

    I thought Petraeus was an intelligent man- too smart to go out on point for Chimpy-


  6. Patriot NW says:

    Wasn’t this supposed to be our “best chance” at success? Good God.


  7. unbelievable says:

    I liken our Bush Administration use of statistics to that of being a Red Sox fan. Come September we need to only win 22 of 12 games to make the playoffs.
    Comment by jay severin has a small pen1s — March 4, 2007 @ 9:40 am

    That’s funny… Sad that it’s true, but funny none-the-less.


  8. AshenShard says:

    I don’t think any of the numbers they are throwing around are accurate. They just pull them out from where the sun don’t shine so they have an answer. You know, we’ll be done in another six months… we have six months to succeed in Iraq … its all a bunch of crap because we have already failed.

    Face it, Iraq had no link to al qaeda and we invaded anyway. What is more, that is what bin laden wanted, for us to attack a middle eastern country so al qaeda forces, among others, could engage us and learn from us and weaken us. Bush, the idiot that he is, and Cheney, the greedy pig that he is, fell right into his trap and dragged our great nation along with them. If that is not treason, I do not know what is.


  9. Badger says:

    Weren’t they 100% sure that the Taliban had been defeated???
    What is our definition of success, and how long do we have to wait to find out if we succeeded?Seems like the insurgents are real good at laying low, and popping back up at the time of THEIR choosing.


  10. oldtree says:

    my, much like smith’s re election chances. 1 in 4. folks, the only reason that smith is speaking out is because he knows he isn’t going to be re elected unless he does something major to prove he is a human being.
    he has not done so yet, and he keeps looking for ways. you will see many more like this act in ways that contradict their earlier position that hell belongs to them personally.


  11. Briseadh na Faire says:

    I think 1 in 4 is unreasonably unrealistic, given the fact that we are funding and fueling the insurgency/civil war/sectarian violence with covert operations.


  12. Marie says:

    So this 25% chance is our “best hope”?
    And in six months, will they want another six months?
    And will the odds then be 1 in 5 or 6?
    These slim odds are on what Bush&Co will risk the lives of more soldiers?
    They are increasingly delusional and that they apparently can’t be stopped is also increasingly alarming.


  13. VerbalKint says:

    The chance of it working is 0%, and Petraeus knows it. He is trying to be a good soldier by pretending it has any chance of working.


  14. Ben Dover says:

    Just watch. Even with a 25 percent chance of success, when the surge fails, it will be blamed on the democrats. Ann Cuntler will say its because all dems are “faggots” and Brit Hume will say this looks good for the administration that the Dems are taking the hits. Then all we will hear about is the exhumation of Anna Nicole Smith’s tits.


  15. Must Have Been the Roses says:

    Depends on the definition of success. If success means pushing the whole region in caos and instability, then the surge has a 99% chance of success.


  16. Raymond Funamoto says:

    How about:
    “One day of prayin’ and six nights of fun
    The odds against goin’ to heaven, six-to-one
    You walk on the wild side…”
    (c)by Mack David from WALK ON THE WILD SIDE
    Whereas in Iraq, the so-called surge DOESN’T HAVE A SNOWBALL’S CHANCE IN HELL OF SUCCEEDING!!!!!


  17. rachel says:

    http://www.tarpley.net/bushb.htm

    George Bush: The Unauthorized Biography — by Webster G. Tarpley & Anton Chaitkin
    ————————————————————–

    I encourage everyone to download and read this free book about George HW Bush. It explains how George Junior grew up as well as all of his misgivings then and now.

    It is available in .htm and .zip format

    EVERY dirty little secret is revealed. It is a GREAT recent history text.


  18. big papa says:

    TRY a .0001 in 4 chance…

    …for those who hope that Bush’s ONE MORE CHANCE strategy is going to be successful…

    …PAY ATTENTION…

    …the Mahdi Army has all but VANISHED into the general population…

    …and its leaders scattered (some reportedly out of the country)…

    …WHY?

    …DUHmerica’s vast wealth is FINITE (that means we’re going to go broke)…

    …EVEN the dead-ender 30% Bushites are faltering on support f/t occupation…

    …and the military is getting a little sick and tired of being USED as pawns for Bushiva and L’il Dick’s legacy (and their corporate cronies’ profit margin)…

    …the Mahdi are (as Bushiva so presciently predicted) going to wait it out…

    …they’ll be back as soon as we’re done POSTURING for the right wing’s Iraq legacy…

    …In the coming months you’re going to hear…

    …Bushiva’s plan is working…

    …so that the Duhmerican Bushites can have their “Victory”…

    …the troops withdraw…

    …and Iran sends Mukhtada back to Iraq to rekindle the sectarian flames…



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