FLASHBACK: One Year Ago, Gen. McCaffrey Said Iraq Was ‘Inoculated From Open Civil War’
FLASHBACK: One Year Ago, Gen. McCaffrey Said Iraq Was ‘Inoculated From Open Civil War’
Late yesterday, retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey delivered a new report to White House officials. Based on a recent visit to Iraq and interviews with Gen. Patraeus and numerous coalition officials, McCaffrey found Iraq to be “ripped by a low grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels.” He added, “the U.S. Armed forces are in a position of strategic peril,” and — in contrast yesterday’s statements by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — found the situation in Iraq to be dire:
There is no function of government that operates effectively across the nation … There is no province in the country in which the government has dominance. … No Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter, foreign NGO, nor contractor can walk the streets of Baghdad, nor Mosul, nor Kirkuk, nor Basra, nor Tikrit, nor Najaf, nor Ramadi — without heavily armed protection.
In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias…probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters. These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF [Iraqi Army].
But just one year ago, McCaffrey believed that Iraq was making progress. In a memo last spring, he wrote:
[I]n my view, the Iraqis are likely to successfully create a governing entity.
The foreign fighters have failed to spark open civil war from the Shia. The Samarra bombing may well have inoculated the country to the possible horror of total war.
The Iraqi Army is real, growing, and willing to fight. They now have lead action of a huge and rapidly expanding area and population. The battalion level formations are in many cases excellent - most are adequate.
The contrast between this latest assessment and that of last spring highlights, in McCaffrey’s own words, the reality that the civil war in Iraq has “worsened to catastrophic levels” and we “have very little time left.”
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45 Responses to “FLASHBACK: One Year Ago, Gen. McCaffrey Said Iraq Was ‘Inoculated From Open Civil War’”
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Why are these guys always roughly a year behind the reality? I guess maybe I shouldn’t complain given the administration is light years away from reality. But it would help if those on the ground in Iraq could call a spade a spade and do it seasonably!
March 28th, 2007 at 2:15 pmi guess the gen has gotten in enough seniority now to take his retirement.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:17 pm….so much for “innoculation theory”, idiot!
March 28th, 2007 at 2:20 pmBarry McCaffrey = Another Bush Stoolie
March 28th, 2007 at 2:20 pmThe occupation of Iraq was a political exercise from the very beginning.
No one and no thing can be inoculated from Reality.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:21 pmDon’t we pay these guys for their military expertise and at least a modicum of gray matter between their ears? Give me a break! One blathering idiot after another pontificating on the war one day and then changing their drivel the next….so what is it, flipflop McCaffrey?
March 28th, 2007 at 2:21 pm#5 The Occupation of Iraq was an oil grab to fill the coffers of the Bush-Cheney Oil Cabal - nothing more!
March 28th, 2007 at 2:22 pmRight on #6; McCaffery will never be pres; he’s a “flip flopper”.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:23 pmOf course, it was also about outright stealing of taxpayers money - we still have no clue where billions went, do we? AWOL taxpayer’s money! I think Bush and Cheney should personally be liable to the people for repayment of this money due to their high level of ineptitude and inability to do the job they were elected to perform.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:23 pmBush/Cheney Cabal = Total Innoculation From Reality
March 28th, 2007 at 2:24 pmI propose a surge, fellas.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:27 pmHe also thought the War on Drugs could be won.
Here’s a little taste of what the general is really like (from Salon):
Barry McCaffrey is the country’s most-decorated general, its longest-serving drug czar and, now, an architect of a U.S.-backed counterinsurgency campaign that on Wednesday took him and President Clinton to Colombia. He’s also a fiercely meticulous employer who has always taken it hard when subordinates leave his service.
“His attitude is, ‘The cause is the ultimate. I am the cause. You have betrayed me; therefore, you’re a traitor,’” says one former intimate. Nevertheless, subordinates do leave — in droves. Since McCaffrey took over the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy in 1996, two-thirds of his staff has quit, according to a June report from the General Accounting Office or GAO, Congress’ investigative arm.
And the aide in the National Airport incident — an active-duty lieutenant colonel who had been McCaffrey’s Sancho Panza for four years — did not escape what some former associates describe as McCaffrey’s vengeful spirit. On the aide’s next evaluation, McCaffrey mentioned the airport incident — thereby insuring the man would never make full colonel and essentially ending his military career. An Army major who took the job next got similar treatment after making a personal decision that displeased McCaffrey. The major, who previously had taught political science at West Point, lost out on a Pentagon job when McCaffrey blackballed him, according to two sources. He now teaches ROTC cadets in Louisiana.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:28 pmWhy is this character allowed to step up to the plate. It is well known that George W Bush is the most brilliant strategic military thinker in this country’s history./sarc
March 28th, 2007 at 2:28 pm1. Why are these guys always roughly a year behind the reality?
Comment by legaleze — March 28, 2007 @ 2:15 pm
Because political consideration dominates this mis-administration. Anyone shilling for bushco is required to give the neo-con political (or- always make bush look good) perspective more weight than reality of the world.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:28 pmMcCaffrey hasn’t been able to see an inch beyond his nose on Iraq. If he’s been right about anything, he’s been stating the obvious and stating it late, including this gem: we “have very little time left.â€
Barry, our time’s been up.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:33 pmBut McCain said it was safe and all could walk safely in parts of Iraq. Maybe McCain and all the GOP who support the Iraq Govenment can talk a walk down the streets to show the Americans and the world just how safe it is. No armor or humvees are needed just take that walk. Notice none will do that but are more then willing to send our troops in the middle of the Iraq civil war. Thanks to the greed of oil by Bush/Cheney the Middle East is worse off then before. To bad they killed Saddam maybe Bush/Cheney could have gotten him to get control and make a deal for the oil at the same time. Now the Saudi King is mad and with problems getting that blank check Bush/Cheney are in trouble. Those back room deals were made and Bush/Cheney better get that money or else.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:36 pmI wrote a poem for you all..
When one voice rules the nation
Just because they’re top of the pile
Doesn’t mean their vision is the clearest
The voices of the people
Are falling on deaf ears
Our politicians all become careerists
They must declare their interests
But not their company cars
Is there more to a seat in parliament
Than sitting on your arse
And the best of all this bad bunch
Is shouting to be heard
Above the sound of ideologies clashing
Outside the patient millions
Who put them into power
Expect a little more back for their taxes
Like school books, beds in hospitals
And peace in our bloody time
All they get is old men grinding axes
Who’ve built their private fortunes
On the things they can rely
The courts, the secret handshake
The Stock Exchange and the old school tie
For God and Queen and Country
All things they justify
Above the sound of ideologies clashing
God bless the civil service
The nations saving grace
While we expect democracy
They’re laughing in our face
And although our cries get louder
The laughter gets louder still
Above the sound of ideologies clashing
Above the sound of ideologies,
Above the sound of ideologies,
Above the sound of ideologies clashing
Actually this is lyrics to a Billy Bragg song - Ideology. Hope you like it, I do.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:40 pmDear Ryan - You forgot to add the following as an epilogue:
“HOOORAAAYYY - the Iraqi’s do not have control of all the provinces!!”
This assessment of yours is most convenient from the comfortable position as arm-chair quarterback.
Thank you for playing….
March 28th, 2007 at 2:43 pmHmm, I just read the whole year-old memo, and I didn’t see one occurrence where Gen. McCaffrey said “Inoculated From Open Civil War” like TP claims. Lies and spin from the TP staff?
March 28th, 2007 at 2:47 pmY’all can have all your laughs with your stupid internet videos here and there, but when Bush vetoes your bill, you will need to decide weather you will be giving the troops the money, or the finger. This will surely divide you Dems and we will conquer in 2008!
March 28th, 2007 at 2:51 pmAn interesting piece in the new today, Iraqi police in the northern town of Tal Afar went on a revenge spree against Sunni residents there on Wednesday, killing at least 45 men.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:52 pmNow the cops are openly waging sectarian war.
Perhaps cowpoke McCain would like to visit Tal Afar for a sunny stroll down delusional lane.
Idiot - just do an f’ing seach - are you THAT dense?
March 28th, 2007 at 2:52 pmReal RedNeck - you’re already giving the troops by supporting this admniistration & the war. BRING THE TROOPS HOME. THAT is support.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:55 pmDale, look on page four you idiot. Last line. Now go away.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:55 pmThe picture Gen. McCaffrey paints is horrific in the intro. The trouble is that war supporters can cherry pick the middle (putting over the milatary) and the general theme that the US’s objectives (Peace In Our Time In Iraq) can be met. One of the problems with meeting the objectives is that he indicates it can only be done of everyone in Iraq sits down at a big table and agrees that Civil War is bad, and can’t we all just get along.
There appears to be zero chance of that happening.
One of the difficulties with the report is that I’m not sure that even Gen. McCaffrey believes that the Top 100 leaders over there are going to wake up one morning and agree to get along. Even within each sect there is little agreement other than the loathing of the other sect *and* Uncle Sam.
In the end, reports like this and the Hamilton-Baker are depressing because after all the gloom and doom that they paint, they remain unable to admit that there is No US Led Solution to Iraq. It just isn’t going to happen. We either continue as the Occupier (which Gen. McCaffrey pretty clearly indicates are Army is about to fall apart, so that’s not doable), or get the heck out.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:55 pmHow will the administration and our own locals trolls spin this?
March 28th, 2007 at 2:57 pmhttp://euronews.net/ index.php?page=info&article=414053&lng=1
One of America’s closest Arab allies has attacked the war in Iraq as an “illegitimate foreign occupation.” Speaking at the start of a summit of the Arab League in Riyadh, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia hit out at the Bush administration. He accused it of putting Iraq at risk of a civil war and trying to unilaterally write the future of the Middle-East.
This is surprising. Yes, in part he’s telling the Arab League what they want to hear, but Abdullah is a very eloquent person who has a lot of remaining leeway between backing Bush and appearing traditional. He didn’t have to be that aggressive, but he did.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:59 pmThe local trolls are noticeably quiet today, not surprising considering the news.
March 28th, 2007 at 2:59 pmWhen will the Republic Party start swift boating the general for being soft on turism??
March 28th, 2007 at 3:01 pmFrom the memo on year ago;
U.S. Marine and Army combat effectiveness - combined with very effective information operations— has taken the fun out of Jihad.
This is an American General saying this? Fun? If he thinks people elect to go on a personal jihad and joina group against the US for fun he doesn’t have a clue to what motivates the enemy and therefore can do nothing to help reduce the problem. That statement sounded like it came from a sixth grader.
March 28th, 2007 at 3:01 pmWhy ask McCaffrey’s opinion today? He was wrong last time.
The same jackasses keep showing up. Just the like the newspaper pundits, the more wrong the better.
March 28th, 2007 at 3:09 pmIf Old Bushies vetos this bill he is against the troops. He has done nothing good for our country. He is a total failure.
March 28th, 2007 at 3:15 pmSome generals get to the top by courage and competence; others get there by being sycophants willing to sell their troops down whatever river happens to be flowing by. In the latter case, they use a claim of loyalty and duty to cover up their moral bankruptcy. For example, the generals who shipped their troops off to Iraq without adequate armor and are now shipping more for the surge without adequate rest and training. They’re almost as bad as the generals who knew an armistice was set for 11:00 am on the 11th of November, 1918 to end Woodrow Wilson’s “war to end all wars” but nevertheless ordered their troops into battle that morning to add thousands of casualties already squandered with some being killed as late as 10:59 am.
March 28th, 2007 at 3:31 pm#24, re-read TP’s comments, then the report, then my post. The general never said they were ‘inoculated’ from civil war, ie protected indefinitely. He said that “the foreign fighters have failed to spark a civil war”.
TP misquoted the report. Unless you can find the part of the report that says “Inoculated From Open Civil War”
March 28th, 2007 at 3:35 pmWho cares if the overwhelming weight of expert military opinion now says we’re in a fast-disintegrating quagmire?
We still have 5-deferment Dick and the Hero of the Texas Air National Guard to support us to final and total victory.
Ein Volk! Ein Reich! Ein SchimpanseFuhrer!
March 28th, 2007 at 3:46 pm#34
Comment by Dale
Directly from the memo at the end of page 4:
The foreign fighters have failed to spark open civil war from the Shia. The Samarra bombing may well have inoculated the country to the possible horror of total war. The Iraqis are rejecting the vision of a religious state.
March 28th, 2007 at 3:50 pm#36, it’s still not what TP said in the headline; they’re twisting the words. “But it’s essentially the same thing”. Yeah, fake but accurate.
March 28th, 2007 at 3:55 pm#37
Comment by Dale
It’s a headline. Move on.
March 28th, 2007 at 4:00 pmDale, care to comment on the rest of the post? Doesn’t sound like a winning strategy in Iraq.
March 28th, 2007 at 4:45 pmThe more I see of Nancy Pelosi the more I like what I see. “Calm down with the threats, there’s a new Congress in town” is the perfect retort for “If we cannot muster the resolve to defeat this evil in Iraq, America will have lost its moral purpose in the world and we will endanger our citizens,” the president said. “If we leave Iraq before the job is done, the enemy will follow us here.”
Bush has played the fear card so loudly and so often nobody is paying attention any longer to the cry wolf tactic. Calm down indeed.
March 28th, 2007 at 5:31 pmMcCaffrey is unreliable at best and bat shit crazy at worst. The guy is a goddamn weather vane. He makes me dizzy spinning his constantly changing opinions, assessments and judgments on Iraq. He must gobble dramamine all day just to stand up straight. The best thing I can say about Gen. Barry is that e’s retired.
Malkin and her ilk have grown both fat and crafty suckling at the teat of Rove.
March 28th, 2007 at 5:50 pm… that picture of him looks like he thinks
March 28th, 2007 at 6:43 pmhe ought to be a movie star…
#36, it’s still not what TP said in the headline; they’re twisting the words. “But it’s essentially the same thingâ€. Yeah, fake but accurate. Comment by Dale — March 28, 2007 @ 3:55 pm
Says the troll that is both fake and inaccurate. Why again do you think anyone cares about your st*pid uninformed opinion again - j*ck*ss?
March 28th, 2007 at 8:54 pmANYONE WHO IS A “SPECIAL COMMENTATOR” ON MSNBC(tm) LIKE McCaffrey IS A PAID STOOLIE/TOADY OF Bushland Uber Allies AND IS NOT TO BE EITHER BELIEVED OR TRUSTED. MSNBC HAS COMMON CRIMINALS LIKE Ed Rogers and Tom DeLay AS COMMENTATORS, GUEST OF OTHERWISE, FOR GAWDS SAKE!!!!!!
March 28th, 2007 at 11:33 pm[…] week, Gen. Barry McCaffrey delivered a dire report on the Iraq war to White House officials, concluding that Iraq is “ripped by a low grade civil war which has […]
April 3rd, 2007 at 4:56 pm