Petraeus Adviser Says Escalation ‘Is Likelier To Fail Than Succeed At This Point’
Petraeus Adviser Says Escalation ‘Is Likelier To Fail Than Succeed At This Point’
Over the weekend, Fox News pundit Fred Barnes claimed that in September, Gen. David Petraeus will report “great progress and say [Baghdad] is heavily pacified.” That optimistic assessment is not shared, however, by one of Petraeus’ key advisers.
On CBS Evening News last night, Stephen Biddle, an early proponent of the escalation, argued that Bush’s strategy in Iraq is “likelier to fail than succeed at this point.” Biddle assessed that there is “maybe a one in ten” chance the escalation will succeed. “Maybe it’s a one in five longshot, if we play our cards right,” he said. Watch it:
Biddle is right to be cautious about the escalation’s success. Despite a brief lull at the beginning of the surge, sectarian murders in Iraq are on the rise again. Car bombings, chlorine bombs, and the use of children as bombers have all also increased. On Tuesday, May became not only the deadliest month for U.S. troops in 2007, but also the third deadliest month in the entire war.
Transcript:
DAVID MARTIN: This is David Martin. All the troops for the surge are now in Iraq. And U.S. military officers say American casualties are likely to go still higher when operations hit full throttle the second week in June. Compounding that grim forecast, Stephen Biddle, an advisor to the American commander in Iraq, says the odds against success are long.
STEPHEN BIDDLE: If I had to put a number to it, maybe it’s a one in ten. Maybe it’s a one in five longshot, if we play our cards right. There’s no question that this is likelier to fail than succeed at this point.
DAVID MARTIN: In an effort to wipe out insurgent strongholds, U.S. troops will be moving into parts of Baghdad and the surrounding countryside, where they have never been before. But even with the surge, former marine Bing West says, there aren’t enough troops to chase insurgents all over Iraq.
BING WEST: The insurgents move 60 to 100 kilometers in a night. And all of Iraq is so flat, has such terrific highways, that you can scoot very quickly from place to place.
MARTIN: According to Biddle, success depends on coercing insurgent factions into accepting a cease fire.
BIDDLE: 160,000 troops is not enough to secure the whole country. But it’s a powerful source of sticks and carrots. If we start using it selectively to reward those who cooperate and consider cease fires, and to punish those who don’t.
MARTIN: There are cease fire negotiations going on with insurgents, but for now one military officer says, “there out to kill us, we’re out to kill them.” David Martin, CBS News, the Pentagon.
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The Republican Party is also likelier to fail than succeed at this point too.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:06 pmMore good news from TP. “We’re Failing!!!!” Happy days are here again.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:08 pm“Play our cards right” - all that death and destruction is just a game to you isn’t it four-eyes? Put your Risk board away and crawl back under the rock you came out from under.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:10 pmof course it will fail. You don’t bring peace to people by waging war on their cities and towns. You don’t save innocent lives by killing people.
War does not bring peace, and this war is no different than those in the past.
America’s history of aggression and war has never brought the results that the politicians promised. The time for this horrible policy of force and war to come to an end is now.
Some further reading:
May 30th, 2007 at 3:12 pm“Can America Bring Peace to the World?”
http://www.populistamerica.com/ can_america_bring_peace_to_the_world
Eric sez:
“More good news from TP. “We’re Failing!!!!†Happy days are here again.”
If by that you mean that someone in our government is not lying to us for once, then yes, that is good news.
Maybe you would prefer to be lied to?
May 30th, 2007 at 3:12 pmIt doesn’t matter to Bush and his sycophants whether the surge succeeds, or just succeeds in killing more American soldiers. Bush’s endgame strategy is to just stretch this war of his out until he leaves office. Then when an adult is President we will finally pull out of Iraq.
And Bush and his puketrolls defenders can go to their graves without having to say they were wrong. “We would have won if only we had another 6 months”.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:13 pmWhy can’t TP report all the happy happy fun stuff?
May 30th, 2007 at 3:15 pmMore good news from TP. “We’re Failing!!!!†Happy days are here again.
Comment by Eric — May 30, 2007 @ 3:08 pm
Adults acknowledge failures and deal with them, Eric. Obviously this concept is foreign to both you and Bush. Then again, I haven’t see the slightest evidence of adult maturity in either of you.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:15 pmEric:
Sorry the truth is so depressing to you. You’re right. We should go back to a time when only happy news was reported.
“Iraqis will greet us as liberators.”
“Bush tax cuts will pay for themselves”
“Iraqi oil will pay for our military costs of removing Saddam”
“We will find the nuclear program and destroy it”
“George Bush wasn’t reading My Pet Goat or flying around the country without appearing for days because he’s a cowardly little pansy who likes to play dress-up cowboy”
“George Bush never received any warnings that 9/11 was going to happen”
“Islamic terrorism really wasn’t important, and certainly was less important than pulling out of Kyoto, removing Saddam Hussein and Kim Jong Il, and withdrawing from ABM treaties so we could research a new missile defense system”
“The Constitution never existed”
etc. etc. etc.
You, sir, are truly a jackass. Go home, you traitorous vermin, back to Chile or wherever, and leave us be here in our civilized country. If you don’t like living by our laws, leave.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:15 pmLet’s ship a trainload of mad cows over to Iraq. Problem solved.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:16 pmWhats this we stuff Eric? I was never a supporter of the Iraq venture. Took too many troops from where they needed to be fight actual terrorist operations, cost too much, and has the US pinned down in the middle east, while our enemies run rampant across the world.
I give you props for trying.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:16 pmEric,
Would rather hear news which keeps us blind of the facts. I’m sorry the facts make you feel like a failure, but facts can do that to some people. You gotta roll with punches sometimes.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:17 pmEric,
You are one sick c*nt. We understand that defending your Dear Leader’s honor means more to you than the lives of our soldiers, or the integrity of our nation. Please go f*ck yourself with something sharp and long.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:17 pmThe “surge” succeed? Let’s just say Bin Laden has a better chance being the Republican candidate for President in the year 2012.
Iran won the “war” in Iraq and there is fu#k all we can do about it. US theft of Iraqi oil is impossible with a healthy and robust Iran next door but we still have a choice: We can make the clusterf#ck worse by attacking Iran (and then Russia and then China etc) or we can admit we screwed this up beyond all repair and get the hell out of Iraq ASAP.
You have to have some real war experience to understand that there are some hills you simply have to give up if you are going to live to fight another day.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pmEric -
That was the mother of all straw men. Nice try though. It really shows off your inability to form a coherent argument. Good luck.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pmDemocrats want to set a surrender date.
Fight them there or we’ll have to fight them here.
Terrorists are casing your house right now.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:20 pm“…reward those who consider cease fires”
“There are cease fire negotiations going on with insurgents,”
Oh yeah, because cease fires AAAAAALWAYS work, huh? Stupid.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:22 pmCaption Contest: “We didn’t plan on the reappearance of Voldemort in Baghdad - that seems to have tipped the balance”
May 30th, 2007 at 3:24 pmI get the feeling Biddle is low balling the chances of progress so that if there is even minor improvement it will seem like a major success. I hate to be a cynic, but these folks (anyone in the Bush Administration or appointed by Bush) have a long way to go to earn my trust back.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:26 pmHey, has anybody seen “Patrick 1″ today?? Am sure he wants to see this.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:27 pmRoboTroll 3000. Hilarious.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:28 pmif we play our cards right..
remind me, when was the last time the bush administration played anything right?
the escalation is a failure, everyone already knows it.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:29 pm“One more Friedman and we would have had it.”
May 30th, 2007 at 3:34 pmI think Patrick1 may be chastising the Freepers for supporting a President who just gave blanket amnesty to illegal immigrants. That is the current *most-important-issue-ever* on the Wrong, temporarily displacing homosexuality.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pmIf the surge has a 1 in 10 chance of working, then great! All we have to do is try the surge 10 times.
Stupid liberals.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:38 pmI can’t get erect without Patrick1 here!! Where are you???
May 30th, 2007 at 3:39 pmLast time I checked, half of the so-called “troop surge” wasn’t even deployed in Iraq yet.
Last time I checked, Congress (which is controlled by the Democrats) decided to continue to fund the war without setting deadlines for troop withdrawls if things don’t improve in Iraq.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:39 pmWell DUHHHH!!!! Why would *THIS* escalation be any different than the last what - SEVEN?
May 30th, 2007 at 3:39 pmMatt,
You can’t seriously be citing Fred Barnes as an authority on military strategy or…um…ANYTHING!
At best Barnes is contrarian indicator.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:41 pm#27:
I hate to inconvenience your lovely argument with FACTS, but in fact the surge (of 30k additional troops) was deployed before the Dems even finished their debate. It’s just about four months now. Bush administration insiders are now whispering about another surge of approximately 60k, to bring us up to about 200k total.
Also, the Dems in fact were vetoed by the President. But I’ll tell you what. I’d be happy to placate you by agreeing with your asinine suggestion that the Dems are pushing this war, if you in turn take your kneejerk hatred of all things Democratic and turn it against this war. Let’s bring our troops home now.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:43 pmJake-o-bin
They have not completed deploying the “surge” INSIDE OF IRAQ yet. Units are still mobilizing for the move. When those troops are on the ground inside of Iraq, then my friend they will have been deployed.
And yes, your right, the Dems were vetoed by the President. However, all they would have to do is, N O T H I N G……. President Bush can’t veto a budget if one isn’t sent to him. Therefore, no funding would have been available to continue the war. Thus, the war would have to come to an end. Need proof, just check Vietnam war history.
May 30th, 2007 at 3:51 pmAhhhhh, the never ending surge. Another excuse for you people to use.
May 30th, 2007 at 4:14 pmJIM -
Exactly. It was a travesty that a bunch of frightened Democratic congressman would vote on politics instead of principle. Biden is part of the crowd saying that it would have harmed soldiers to not continue to fund this debacle. What a joke. Not funding this war would have forced them to budget 10 billion of the remaining dollars for removing all of the men and materials safely.
May 30th, 2007 at 4:25 pmEnd of story.
Stay the zig-zag. Ignore the zig and create a new zag.
May 30th, 2007 at 4:27 pmPeople will buy it.
Last time I checked, this was the “Republican’ts and Bush’s” war. Let the kill flow on the heads of the republican party. They got us into this “NO WIN” situation. If they want the war to stop, send about “17″ republicans over to the democrats side and give us veto proof majority.
May 30th, 2007 at 4:32 pmI personally don’t see how this surge can be measured in a matter of MONTHS. However, the war can be measured in a matter of YEARS.
After four years the war is a complete disaster, and Bush will not own up to his miscalculations. That means more money and more blood for years to come.
Many bright scholars say a military solution is not possible. Iraq has a long, long, long history of conflict, and more conflict is just not going to solve much of anything.
Yes, Saddam Hussein is gone but what replaces him may not be the nice little democracy that George W. Bush envisioned for this conflict-ridden country.
George W. Bush has always lived in a dream world so keep dreaming, George. Keep spending billions, George. Keep dreaming! Keep thousands of coffins coming back, George. Keep dreaming! Keep ignoring rational thinking, George. Keep dreaming!
May 30th, 2007 at 4:34 pmstarting Monday 21st May 2007
Monday: 111 Iraqis Killed, 217 Wounded
Tuesday: 104 Iraqis Killed, 116 Wounded
Wednesday 9 GIs, 122 Iraqis Dead
Thursday: 101 Iraqis, 6 GIs Killed; 81 Iraqis Wounded
Friday: 6 GIs, 34 Iraqis Killed; 38 Iraqis Wounded
Saturday 8 GIs, 91 Iraqis Dead, 116 Iraqis Wounded
Sunday: 3 GIs, 88 Iraqis Killed; 52 Iraqis Wounded
Monday: 123 Iraqis Killed, 233 Wounded
Tuesday: 13 GIs, 169 Iraqis Killed; 146 Iraqis Wounded
Wednesday: 1 GI, 28 Iraqis Killed; 37 Wounded
so far 40 GIs
so far 971 Poor iraqis
so dar 1036 Poor iraqis wounded
In the last 10 days . . .
You have to leave enough is enough
May 30th, 2007 at 4:45 pmThese are NOT chlorine bombs. Please stop saying that.
These are bombs with chlorine as an accelerator. The purpose and effect is NOT to release chlorine gas, and the fatalities are from EXPLOSION, not from chlorine gas.
John, if you think Bush thought he would create a democracy in Iraq, you really bought the E ticket on his insanity.
This is (highly-profitable) GENOCIDE, by ‘oops!’.
May 30th, 2007 at 4:46 pm“Thus, the war would have to come to an end. Need proof, just check Vietnam war history.” –JIM
Nonsense. The Congress shut off SE Asia military funding (1973’s Case-Church) AFTER Nixon signed the peace treaty, had withdrawn most of the troops, and, as it turned out, too late to save the Cambodian gov’t from the effects of the massive bombing.
The prior shutoff of funds (1971’s Cooper-Church) extended the draft, and the final bill dropped the shutoff date, changing it to ‘earliest practicable date’ — not so different than the current Congressional imbroglio.
There is no comparison in terms of public opposition, because there is no draft. The suggestion that the Dems can bring the invasion of Iraq to a halt within six months of taking power (another major difference from the Vietnam era) is spurious jive. WE DON’T HAVE THE VOTES.
May 30th, 2007 at 5:01 pmThe Rude Pundit said it best:
“The Rude Pundit could’ve gotten a brain-damaged monkey and sat it in front of a giant board filled with squares, each predicting what might happen if the United States invaded Iraq. That brain-damaged monkey could’ve thrown its shit at the board, and someone could’ve announced on what square the shit landed, and even if the shit had missed the board entirely, there’s a good chance that that brain-damaged, shit-tossing monkey would’ve been right more often about the war in Iraq than William Kristol or Frederick Kagan.”
http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/
May 30th, 2007 at 5:05 pm# 40: OMG, unbelievable, that is freaking hilarious. And so, so true.
May 30th, 2007 at 5:10 pmThe current issue of Newsweek has an article about Anbar province in Iraq. It seems our military is now on friendly terms with the local Shieks. They are the real powerbase in that area, and are cooperating with us .AGAINST Al Qaeda. Only a year ago, many were part of the Iraqi Insurgency that was attacking our troops.
May 30th, 2007 at 5:27 pmThey want Water, Sewage treatment, Electricity, and an economy with Jobs for their people.
This is a window of Opportunity that we better take advantage of. It also shatters the Un-Nuanced myth that the Iraqi Insurgecy is the same as Al Qaeda.
“OMG, unbelievable, that is freaking hilarious. And so, so true.
Comment by KRank — May 30, 2007 @ 5:10 pm”
I love The Rude Pundit. He has a way of stating the obvious in ways you never would have otherwise considered :)
May 30th, 2007 at 5:44 pm#14 Comment by Abby — May 30, 2007 @ 3:19 pm
Let’s just say Bin Laden has a better chance being the Republican candidate for President in the year 2012.
Gosh, I didn’t think the Republicans were being that open about it. Gotta say, he might have some trouble separating his campaign pitch from some of his contenders. Not much difference as far as I can see.
May 30th, 2007 at 5:52 pmThe Rude Dude is lewd, and crude, and also spot on. Wouldn’t Bush feel right at home sitting there with all those simians?
May 30th, 2007 at 6:00 pm#16 Comment by RoboTroll 3000 — May 30, 2007 @ 3:20 pm
Democrats want to set a surrender date.
Fight them there or we’ll have to fight them here.
Terrorists are casing your house right now.
Hey robo! Are you just stating out! You know, just a beginner troll? I mean, this cut and paste troll stuff doesn’t cut it around here. These are the cheapest troll talking points ever! And putting three together with no “color” is bush league. This is the “big leagues” for trolls, you know. Maybe you should get together with VV, the head giver troll and be a bit more original.
Otherwise you know the drill. Its back to the minor leagues. Shape up or ship out.
Psssst VV, your crew is really falling down on the job. I suggest some discipline and punishment if they don’t shape up.
May 30th, 2007 at 6:01 pmHas anyone ever considered this was a deliberate attempt to set the bar so damn low by Petraeus that any given “good news” will be considered miraculous to give way to the ridiculous rationale for staying longer? It’s almost Rovian of one of Petraeus’ advisors to come out and give a grim assessment like this.
I’m sorry, but given this Administration’s history including Petraeus and their yes-men generals, I don’t trust one thing that comes from their collective mouths. Matt, this is worthy of printing not in the sense of agreeing with Biddle, but as a cautionary all too familiar tale of setting the bar extraordinarily low that a freakin’ snail could slime over it.
May 30th, 2007 at 6:07 pm#25 Comment by Patrick1 — May 30, 2007 @ 3:38 pm
If the surge has a 1 in 10 chance of working, then great! All we have to do is try the surge 10 times.
Stupid liberals.
Valient!
May 30th, 2007 at 6:14 pmGood grief Valient! Did you read this? How can you allow this kind of junk on your watch? Your crew is falling apart. This is alarming! We here depend on you to keep us awake; stimulated, right? Well, this Pee1 troll is just terrible! I have been monitoring his comments for some time and he is really bad. Just dull, dull, dull. You know what I mean.
Straighten these slackers like Pee1 up, or get a new crew in here. And don’t try to fool me with “the same guy-different handle” routine. I’m too smart for that.
well DUUH!!!! how can there be a successful band-aid stuck onto a failure-by-definition of a non-war??????
fight the trolls and wingnuts here, so we don’t have to fight them in D.C.!!!
May 30th, 2007 at 6:16 pmMerlin #46, thank you for your feedback.
I type exactly what they program into me at the RNC. If you have an issue with my talking points, please take it up with them.
Thank you.
Furthermore, Clinton did it too, so that makes it all right.
May 30th, 2007 at 6:22 pm#50 Comment by RoboTroll 3000 — May 30, 2007 @ 6:22 pm
Merlin #46, thank you for your feedback.
I type exactly what they program into me at the RNC. If you have an issue with my talking points, please take it up with them.
Furthermore, Clinton did it too, so that makes it all right.
Dear robo,
Your effusive praise has made my day. And to be fair, I must praise your forthright honesty in admitting your embarrassing conditions of employment. I also appreciate your further attempt to cover up your previous post with this fourth talking point. Nice try but… it is a bit old, you know. Could you come in out of the past?
One other thing to thank you for. It is another mystery solved, as they say. Now we know where the RNC Headquarters is! That is really big news.
ATTENTION FOLKS:
May 30th, 2007 at 7:25 pmThe RNC headquarters is located in the “West Hollywood Gym for Men” where the troll locker room is also housed!
#51: *sigh* (some people just don’t get it…)
Harry Reid made money on a land deal!
Democrats want to raise taxes but won’t support the troops by putting a magnetic ribbon on the car.
William Jefferson!
May 30th, 2007 at 7:41 pm“It’s more likely to fail than to succeed at this point.”
Ya f*cking think? A 1:10 chance, 1:5 if we play our cards right. In other words, 10-20% choice of it working in any form.
May 30th, 2007 at 8:24 pm“Over the weekend, Fox News pundit Fred Barnes claimed that in September, Gen. David Petraeus will report “great progress and say [Baghdad] is heavily pacified.†That optimistic assessment…”
What optimistic assessment? Barnes is just explaining what’s going to happen. This bears no more relationship to predicting the reality on the ground than Lieberman’s assessment recently that things are going along swimmingly, all resplendent in goofy helmet and bulky body armor, looking like that Martian in the Daffy Duck cartoons.
May 31st, 2007 at 10:54 amRoboTroll 3000 for the Republican nomination!
Slogan: “It stays on message.”
Now we need a contest to pick the official campaign song. To get the ball rolling, I’ll suggest “Everything Is Beautiful.”
May 31st, 2007 at 11:00 amMore potential slogans for he RoboTroll 3000 campaign:
“Move along, nothing to see here!”
“Even liberals think it’s serious”
“Providing the MSM their talking points since 2007″
“Habeas corpus? I don’t gotta show you no stinkin’ habeas corpus.”
“Vote Robo — It can’t be a child molseter”
“Use a three times and its yours”
“It works while you sleep”
May 31st, 2007 at 11:12 amGood thing we had that symbolic resolution opposing the surge! Thankfully because of that few US troops and Iraqi civilians will be killed!
May 31st, 2007 at 11:14 amWell that’s just wonderful. Too bad The Decider doesn’t give a crap, and people will be blown to bits until he pulls his head out of a certain orifice.
May 31st, 2007 at 1:29 pmFirst Id like to point out that i today realized that this is the same Stephen Biddle that I played football with long ago. He is very smart and as a young fella, he was quite tough. Im impressed but not suprised with the career he has had….but, lets not get excited about his words about the odds of success with the surge. Biddle has written that we MUST stay in Iraq no matter the outcome. He has been critical of the Bush Administration’s plans for a withdrawal after victory. Yes, in the present political discussion, Biddle is to the right of the Bush administration. His arguments may be sound, he worries about the effects of withdrawal and the possibility of genocide. He calls the situation in Iraq a civil war. It seems that his view of this is close to that of another fine Delawarean, Joe Biden. Lord, what a mess we are in…
May 31st, 2007 at 7:32 pmBut of course Petraeus is going to say we are making great progessm in September because if he says anything else he’ll have “ret.” after his name.
May 31st, 2007 at 9:23 pmWow. “FAILURE!”
Whatever happened to “If they want to attack just BRING IT ON!”
?
Bush is an idiot.
May 31st, 2007 at 10:41 pm