O’Hanlon Contradicts His Own Research To Portray Surge As Successful
O’Hanlon Contradicts His Own Research To Portray Surge As Successful
In today’s New York Times, Brookings analysts Michael O’Hanlon and Ken Pollack argue that “the administration’s critics seem unaware of the significant changes taking place” as a result of the President’s surge strategy in Iraq.
Just last week — on July 26 — O’Hanlon published a starkly different assessment of the conditions in Iraq. In an updated edition of the Brookings Institute Iraq Index, he wrote:
With what promised to be a pivotal summer now more than half over, the situation in Iraq remains tenuous at best. …
[V]iolence nationwide has failed to improve measurably over the past 2-plus months, with a resilient enemy increasingly turning its focus to softer targets outside the scope of the surge. …
In assessing the overall sentiment of the Iraqi people recently, U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker summed it up in one word: fear. …
Politically, there has yet to be significant progress in the legislation of any of the critical benchmark laws. …[I]t is difficult to see how any measurable political progress will take place before the all-important September update from Ambassador Crocker and commanding General David Petraeus.
Economically, “stagnation” continues to be the key word.
O’Hanlon’s most recent Iraq Index update conflicts with today’s op-ed in several other key areas:
CIVILIAN DEATH RATES
O’Hanlon: “Civilian fatality rates are down roughly a third since the surge began.”
Brookings Iraq Index, 7/26/2007:
VIOLENCE ACROSS IRAQ
O’Hanlon: “[A]nother critical effect: no more whack-a-mole, with insurgents popping back up after the Americans leave.”
Brookings Iraq Index, 7/26/2007:
WELL-BEING OF THE TROOPS
O’Hanlon: “Just a few months ago, American marines were fighting for every yard of Ramadi; last week we strolled down its streets without body armor.”
Brookings Iraq Index, 7/26/2007:
ELECTRICITY
O’Hanlon: “Army and Marine units were…working with Iraqi security units, creating new political and economic arrangements at the local level and providing basic services — electricity, fuel, clean water and sanitation — to the people.”
Brookings Iraq Index, 7/26/2007:
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56 Responses to “O’Hanlon Contradicts His Own Research To Portray Surge As Successful”
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Great!
July 30th, 2007 at 3:24 pmHow much are we paying these guys for their “expert” opinion?
$43bn US arms package for allies in the middle east
WOW it certainely pays to have a cold war with Iran
July 30th, 2007 at 3:25 pmcan’t say the infrastructure figures were too surprizing. I mean, look what a fantastic job we’ve done rebuilding New Orleans! Why wouldn’t the Iraqis want the same…
July 30th, 2007 at 3:27 pmNew from the NYTimes:
In the poll conducted over the weekend with 889 adults, 42 percent of the respondents said the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, 51 percent said the United States should have stayed out.
There was also a drop in the number of people who said the war is going badly. In the latest poll, 66 percent of Americans said things are going badly for the United States in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq. That is down from 76 percent who said the same thing in May.
Check it out:
http://www.nytimes.com/ 2007/ 07/ 25/ us/ politics/ 25web-elder.html
July 30th, 2007 at 3:28 pmO’Hanlon: “Civilian fatality rates are down roughly a third since the surge began.â€
Are those using the new “rules” that don’t count car bombs?
July 30th, 2007 at 3:29 pmWOW it certainely pays to have a cold war with Iran
Comment by Tobey Tall — July 30, 2007 @ 3:25 pm
The question is who’s getting the money?!
July 30th, 2007 at 3:30 pmmargaret: Follow the money right to the doorsteps or offshore banks of the major military profiteers and you’ll see precisely who is benefitting from this protracted war.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pmNo-bid contract Haliburton is at the top of the heap….(winkwink) you know the one which Cheney is receiving his pension from???
July 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pm“42 percent of the respondents said the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq”
That number still seems so high!! Are those all of the people who are incapable of understanding that 9/11 had nothing to do with Iraq?
I know some people who literally cannot (mostly for their sanity’s sake I suspect) entertain the possibility that their government lied to them. Either lied intentionally or (cough) unintentionally.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:37 pmRegardless of how you parse it, Iraq is tanking this country economically, internationally, and militarily. We can see the lack of progress for ourselves - one hour of electricity per day if you have any electricity at all. Remember when Bush was using electricity as a benchmark for success and boasting about it?? Where’s the electricity talk now?? If anyone calls this progress, they’re as psychiatrically impaired as the neocons themselves.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:39 pmBush’s War will life in infamy as the single largest military disaster this country has ever been involved in….end of story! This will always be “Bush’s War” - remember: it was Bush himself who dubbed himself”The War President”. Guess he’s eating those words now.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:40 pmfor veritas:
“On October 4, 1999, Halliburton CEO Dick Cheney announced the sale of a business unit, a decision that robbed $25 million from worker pensions. Workers wondering where all that money disappeared may look to Cheney’s own pension. That’s because nine months after plundering $25 million from the pension, Halliburton’s board of directors, with Cheney as its chairman, awarded Cheney a $20 million pension. And it was all legal. This is the stuff of Oliver Stone’s fictional Wall Street raider Gordon Gecko.”
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/about_hal/pensions.html
July 30th, 2007 at 3:40 pmIf progress is determined by the number of our family members coming home in body bags, then I guess Bush can have it his way.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:41 pmThanks, Margaret! Gordon Gecko is actually Cheney’s real name. He’s a liar and a crook, regardless of how legal the stealing may have been…it’s still amoral and stealing from the pensions of folks who need it.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:42 pmMaybe someone will call in with a Haliburton question for him? Or maybe it will be about his 5 draft deferrments? Or better yet…how about his 3 DUI’s??
July 30th, 2007 at 3:43 pmProgress = Increased Body Bags in Bush’s War of Lunacy!
July 30th, 2007 at 3:43 pmfor This Just In and anyone else who has the ability to think for themselves:
“Car bombs and other explosive devices have killed thousands of Iraqis in the past three years, but the administration doesn’t include them in the casualty counts it has been citing as evidence that the surge of additional U.S. forces is beginning to defuse tensions between Shiite and Sunni Muslims.”
http://webcruiser.vox.com/ library/ post/ car-bombs-dont-count.html
July 30th, 2007 at 3:49 pmI agree veritas. Dollar amount for this conflict has flown out of this administration unchecked. And what do we, the american tax payer, get for this? Buildings way over budget that spew feces from the walls and ceilings. Tainted food and water supplies for our troops. Troops not being supplied with the proper equipment. A massive depletion of the reserve and National guard units supplies because they are left in Iraq ( or just worn out in Iraq). Billions unaccounted for.
All on supplemental funding that this administration hasn’t (and won’t) accounted for how to pay for.
The republican party will be destroyed for years to come because of this. I just hope the rest of the country can overcome.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:51 pmhellinabucket - it’s enough to piss one off isn’t it?
July 30th, 2007 at 3:55 pmThe best way to deal with these Pollyanna assessments is to wait and see. No need to get exited now. In a couple of months these guys will either look like prophets or idiots. If they were wrong, then is the time to point it out, then maybe in their embarrassment they’ll be more careful next time. Their credibility needs to be challenged with solid proof. That’s the nice thing about the internet, if someone says something stupid, then that statement will keep reappearing every time he opens his mouth in the future. John McCain’s little walk in a Baghdad market is a great example of that.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:58 pmProgress = no capitulating to Islamic terrorism and attacks on liberty. I detest war, but I prefer it to spineless appeasement and sharia law.
Sharia does not allow freedom of speech on such matters as criticism of Muhammad. Such criticism is considered blasphemy against Muhammad.
International controversy came about when two gay teenagers were publicly executed (following lashings in prison) in Iran, 19 July 2005, for homosexual relations. The youths were hanged in Edalat Square in the city of Mashhad, in north east Iran.
Gay men have been publicly executed in Saudi Arabia, where beheading is the primary method, and in Taliban Afghanistan, where men were crushed with large boulders.
Many democrats, and several official institutions in democratic countries (as the European Court for Human Rights) are convinced that Sharia is incompatible with a democratic state. These incompatibilities have been clarified in several legal disputes.
As for lesbians, Muhammad said about them: “If a woman comes upon a woman, they are both adulteresses.” The homosexual receives the same punishment as an adulterer. This means, that if the homosexual is married, he/she is stoned to death, while if single, he/she is whipped 100 times.
In accordance with hadith, stoning to death is the penalty for married men and women who commit adultery.
In accordance with the Qur’an and several hadith, theft is punished by imprisonment or amputation of hands or feet, depending on the number of times it was committed and depending on the item of theft.
This is what you are signing up for, if you allow the vacuum that would exist without addressing Islamic threats to our liberty. You will eventually get on board hopefully, before Iran becomes nuclear and before more jihadists cross the mexican border.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:06 pmDenis Leary has a fantastic song about an Irishman named O’Hanlon.
I believe it’s called Irish Folk song.
The chorus revolves around the cutting off of O’Hanlon’s head.
Google it…
July 30th, 2007 at 4:07 pmDoes anyone out there find the following statement to imply a false choice?
“I detest war, but I prefer it to spineless appeasement and sharia law.”
July 30th, 2007 at 4:08 pmDoes anyone out there find the following statement to imply a false choice?
“I detest war, but I prefer it to spineless appeasement and sharia law.â€
Comment by Egreggious
Yes. But one of the memes of the Right is that withdrawing from Iraq will mean all Americans will have to convert to Islam in a few years. It’s an astonishingly dumb meme, but it persists.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:11 pm“He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future.” -Nineteen Eighty-Four
July 30th, 2007 at 4:11 pmComment by gummitch — July 30, 2007 @ 4:11 pm
Thank you, gummitch.
(Let me know if I should stop doing this part). :)
July 30th, 2007 at 4:12 pmHAHAHA even the ny times is seeing the astonishing progress and incredible success of general petraeus and our troops. will the demosocialts continue to lie and propagate that surge is a failure? sure. will they continue to do everything to win their war on bush and petraeus and undercut our troops. absolutely. but the dispicable left cannot hide from the reality that progress is being made, and only the liberals are left standing in victory’s path.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:18 pmand only the liberals are left standing in victory’s path.
Comment by liberals destroyed america — July 30, 2007 @ 4:18 pm
Wow, what color is they sky in your world? Please tell the pixies and unicorns I said hi.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:20 pmDid anyone notice that this article appeared in the “Opinion” section of the NYT?
July 30th, 2007 at 4:25 pmIn accordance with hadith, stoning to death is the penalty for married men and women who commit adultery.
Comment by paul — July 30, 2007 @ 4:06 pm
I could see why the republicans would be worried about this. Just ask Mr. Vitter, Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Thurmond, Oh wait he is dead my bad.
Sorry Paul, I don’t see the western world capitulating to religious extremists of any stripe. We got out from under the thumb of Christian extremists, we aren’t going to have Islamic extremists take over. Go peddle your fear elsewhere.
I remember during the cold war, we were always told how we had to fight the commies or they would take over etc, etc, looks like we have just changed the enemy.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:28 pmBecause, war is but one of the many options that can be used to eliminate radical Islamists. He could have said “I detest nuking an entire country, but I prefer it to spineless appeasement and sharia law,†or “I detest gas chambers, but I prefer it to spineless appeasement and sharia law,†etc. etc., you get my drift.
Comment by Mr. NeoCON — July 30, 2007 @ 4:12 pm
More lies from the chickenhawk brigade. Your drift is into the current of ignorance and gullibility.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:37 pmSorry Paul, I don’t see the western world capitulating to religious extremists of any stripe.
Check this out (the author’s German, not an American Christian)
http://www.spiegel.de/ international/ spiegel/ 0,1518,462149,00.html
July 30th, 2007 at 4:37 pmand only the president of the USA is left standing in victory’s path.
Comment by liberals destroyed america — July 30, 2007 @ 4:18 pm
fixed your lie.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:38 pmHere’s a sample:
Critical souls who only yesterday agreed with Marx that religion is the opium of the masses suddenly insisted that religious sensibilities must be taken into account, especially when accompanied by violence. The representatives of open societies reacted like the inhabitants of an island about to be hit by a hurricane. Powerless against the forces of nature, they stocked up on supplies, nailed doors and windows shut and hoped that the storm would soon pass. Of course, whereas such a reaction may be an appropriate response to natural disasters, such a lack of resistance merely encourages fundamentalists. It completely justifies their view of the West as weak, decadent and completely unwilling to defend itself.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:41 pmIt completely justifies their view of the West as weak, decadent and completely unwilling to defend itself.
Comment by paul
There is not a Muslim nation on earth, or a conglomeration of Muslim nations, that has the military strength to conquer the West and without such a military conquest, there is simply no chance at all that Europe or the US, et al, would become Islamic states. This is just more hiding-under-the-bed xenophobia.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:44 pmDid anyone notice this opinion piece’s title?!
“A War We Just Might Win”
Confidence is just oozing out between the words…
July 30th, 2007 at 4:48 pmThose are just a bunch of charts and graphs and stuff. My gut tells me the war is going swimmingly and that’s all that matters.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:49 pmMy gut tells me the war is going swimmingly and that’s all that matters.
Comment by bush jr. — July 30, 2007 @ 4:49 pm
Shirtoff? Is that you?
July 30th, 2007 at 4:54 pmPaul you are arguing a slippery slope point. I don’t think you see the problems with the theory you put forth, but most people who are not fear mongers do see the problem. Western civilization is not going to capitulate to fundamentalist islamics. We, here in the US, and in Europe, have spent to much time gaining the very freedoms you say are in danger. Yes we believe in religious tolerance but that goes both ways.
We are in less danger now, then during the cold war, and even then I think the danger was overblown, to justify the big military, and to keep us afraid.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:00 pmIslamic fundamentalist are testing westerners every day. No booze or seeing eye dogs in minneapolis cabs, death threats against the Pope, violence towards the Danish government over cartoons, shutting down a German play over objections from Muslims. Muslim accomadations in schools that won’t accomadate other religions. Countless other examples. Progressives submissively roll over, because they are simply unwilling to fight for their own liberty. Is that what the forefathers had in mind?
July 30th, 2007 at 5:01 pmLooks like O’Hangin was against being for the surge after or before he wasn’t for or against it, maybe.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:01 pmGo hide under your bed Paulie.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:03 pmA few thousand crazed extremists don’t scare me, well, except for the jesus camp deal…
Has anyone hit the NYTimes with the data from this (Brookings) report? They might be more selective of items that appear in their OpEds if they knew.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:08 pmThe lies come like clockwork. But nobody except the remaining true believers in the blood-lusting neocon bs listens anymore.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:29 pmI sent a note to the Public Editor.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:40 pmLooks like this paul is afraid of the “Islamics”! He must have watched that propaganda on FAUX over the weekend on radical Islam. Now he’s properly terrified and won’t mind when they take his remaining civil liberties away.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:41 pmthe dnc must be going wild! their effort to destroy petraeus and undermine the war effort is getting off course with long time ally the ny times publishing a piece like this. i’m sure the dnc’s friends at the times will fix this error and run another 6-7 weeks of abu grahb stories. go jihadis go, the liberals are with you!!!!
July 30th, 2007 at 7:28 pm” Now he’s properly terrified and won’t mind when they take his remaining civil liberties away.”
Put down the cough medicine Margaret, and tell us ONE civil liberty you’ve been deprived of because of the war on terror. I know that syrupy stuff makes you feel good, but you shouldn’t be guzzling that stuff the way you do.
July 30th, 2007 at 7:31 pmWhy did you post the figures for November to June as though this was relevant ?
July 30th, 2007 at 8:05 pmStill persisting with that BS that the surge started when the President announced it are we ?
Yeah, that’ll make you look credible.
If those are “critics” of the White House Iraq policy what does the media call friends?
July 31st, 2007 at 2:28 amGo hide under your bed Paulie.
A few thousand crazed extremists don’t scare me…
I’m not under my bed. I’m standing on a beach looking at you with you head in the sand.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:32 am“No booze or seeing eye dogs in minneapolis cabs, death threats against the Pope, violence towards the Danish government over cartoons, shutting down a German play over objections from Muslims.”
Comment by paul — July 30, 2007 @ 5:01 pm
Sounds like the same sort of things we’ve been fighting the fundie Christians over the past 20-30 years. If the Christofascists can’t make us cower, what chance do you think the Islamofascists have? I suggest you head the middle of the Arizona desert and defend us from the Islamic Mexicans. Dont forget to forget your water.
July 31st, 2007 at 12:26 pmJust thought I listen to Rush limbaugh.
His take on this is interesting. he is pushing the idea that the Democrats are in a hysterical mode because “one of there own’ has made a positive statement about the war..
And now the Dems don’t know what to do now that its proven that the surge was working.
Also pushing the “fact” that the Dems don’t want us to win in Iraq and what are we going to do when we win?
I don’t usually Hate people, but I’m pretty darn close with this guy..
July 31st, 2007 at 12:41 pm“Why did you post the figures for November to June as though this was relevant ?
Still persisting with that BS that the surge started when the President announced it are we ?
Yeah, that’ll make you look credible.”
Comment by Kilo — July 30, 2007 @ 8:05 pm
Are you still insisting that the surge troops sat on their ass waiting for the last man show up before beginning operations? The surge started when the surge troops first arrived. Are we going to say in Sept that the surge hadn’t started yet because a few soldiers missed their flight? Let’s be honest and show the numbers for every month since the war started and we will see there is a dip every July/August. The scam is that the whitehouse hopes no one notices the numbers are back up in Sept. so they can claim success in the surge where there is none.
July 31st, 2007 at 12:54 pmPaul: “Progress = no capitulating to Islamic terrorism and attacks on liberty. I detest war, but I prefer it to spineless appeasement and sharia law.”
If you were so AFRAID of Muslims, then tell us again why you wanted war in Iraq. Saddam was indeed evil, but Iraq was a secular country, unlike Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, there was freedom of religion. You could be Muslim, Christian, Jew, whatever.
August 1st, 2007 at 12:58 pmhttp://www.globalsecurity.org/ wmd/ library/ news/ iraq/ 2007/ 07/ iraq-070701-voa01.htm
This is the basis of the statistic.
August 8th, 2007 at 6:11 pm