Think Progress

NIE: Violence To ‘Remain High’ In Iraq Over Next ‘Six To Twelve Months’

nieaug07.JPGToday, the Bush administration released an update to the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), entitled, “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive.” The NIE — which offers the coordinated judgments of the Intelligence Community — observed some “measurable but uneven improvements” in Iraq’s security situation, but cautioned that there remains a lack of political progress in Iraq and a failure of the escalation to successfully provide sufficient security for Iraqis.

Read the key judgments of the NIE here. Below, some important findings:

Decrease in Baghdad violence due to sectarian cleansing:

The polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all neighborhoods and Sunni areas have become surrounded by predominately Shia districts. Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves.

Violence to remain high over next six to 12 months:

[L]evels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high [over next six to 12 months] and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.

National government to become more “precarious” over next six to 12 months:

The Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. … The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decisionmaking, and increased Maliki’s vulnerability to alternative coalitions

Refugee crisis will continue to spill over during “next six to 12 months”:

Population displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues, imposing burdens on provincial governments and some neighboring states and increasing the danger of destabilizing influences spreading across Iraq’s borders over the next six to 12 months.

Digg It!



91 Responses to “NIE: Violence To ‘Remain High’ In Iraq Over Next ‘Six To Twelve Months’”

  1. Grand Moff Texan says:

    Doesn’t matter. Over the next six to twelve months, Americans will continue to die for Bush’s ego.
    .


  2. Chris L says:

    This all sounds exactly like what Michael Ware has been saying for some time now.


  3. Crump's Other Brother says:

    Well doesn’t this mean the surge is working? Isn’t that what the administration keeps telling us. “Of course there will be more violence, we are surging!”

    Idiots!


  4. stopthecons says:

    well, well well – a little “truth”??

    Of COURSE violence will stay high. If Chinese troops were “spreading democracy” here in the US I think most of us would expect violence to be quite high.

    As long as these troops are there – protecting the oil interests and generating profit for the weapons makers – there will be plenty of violence, death and destruction.

    Dennis Kucinich has been on the forefront of the realities of why we’re fighting, and it sure ain’t for security or democracy! Some further reading:

    “Revealed: Why Your Sons and Daughters Died in Iraq”
    http://www.populistamerica.com/revealed_why_your_sons_and_daughters_died_in_iraq


  5. dlet says:

    It’s funny how they don’t elaborate after the 12 month period they are talking about. Do they foresee it becoming better after those 12 months, stay the same, get worse? Must be nice to be able to stop your evaluation of a situation and still seem professional but that doesn’t mean the situation stops.


  6. missmolly says:

    Ah — we’ve extended the standard “six month” unit of time. It’s now “six to twelve months”. Just means we are asked to wait a little longer until we get a new story.


  7. Anti-Treason says:

    Comment by Grand Moff Texan — August 23, 2007 @ 12:19 pm

    Oil-hungry troops and overpaid generals who want this imperialistic aggression to wage forward.

    Bushwad is such a cute cheerleader.


  8. dim wit says:

    Maybe sectarian violence is decreasing because there are less people available to kill. When everyone is dead and there is no one left to kill anyone else, bush can claim “mission accomplished” again.


  9. Aimee says:

    Bush and Co. don’t care, it’s all about securing the OIL. I believe the Iragi fractions are blocking the take over, and they truly want the US out.


  10. toasterhead says:

    Of COURSE violence will stay high. If Chinese troops were “spreading democracy” here in the US I think most of us would expect violence to be quite high.

    Comment by stopthecons — August 23, 2007 @ 12:21 pm

    Yes but that’s just because the democracy manufactured in China contains 45% lead, and lead exposure has been linked to violence and crime.

    The other 55% is a mixture of talcum powder and antifreeze.


  11. hellinabucket says:

    Bush and his party will have their backs against a wall in 12 months. The situation won’t be better. The dynamics will change once again and the countries on the side lines that have long term interest in the region (Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran) will move in their own best interests that won’t be lock step with Bush.

    dlet, I had the same question.


  12. DISTURBIA says:

    “Violence to remain high over next 6 to 12 months”.

    :|

    What is this a weather report?


  13. BushToPayForHisSins? says:

    … ah… the smell of Iraqi freedom…

    So the Toy Emperor warns us against another Vietnam, eh? Well this ones going to be FAR worse, and it’ll be on King George’s head. Not anyone else’s.


  14. toasterhead says:

    Also – does it annoy anyone else that these assessments contain six pages explaining the methodology of the study, the role of the Natinal Intelligence Director, the study limitations, and a thorough explanation of the difference between “judge” and “assess,” and then only four pages of actual reporting?


  15. Dave C says:

    Bush and his party will have their backs against a wall in 12 months.

    Wrong. They will have lost interest in Iraq by then & attacked Iran. I don’t believe Bush will leave office without attacking Iran. Further, I believe that as a result of attacking Iran the U.S./world will be in such a dangerous situation it won’t be “frugal” to hold elections in the U.S. and chimpy will hold onto his position until the danger can drop to a reasonable color… maybe orange.


  16. DISTURBIA says:

    Violence to remain high over the next 6 to 12 months, followed by partly scattered explosions with light shrapnel and beheadings by sundown.


  17. Police Action says:

    Oil-hungry troops and overpaid generals who want this imperialistic aggression to wage forward.

    The rest of you libs accepting this ahole and his rant? It sort of goes against your professed concern for the troops, then again maybe its just me.


  18. JG says:

    Bush will find a way to spin this to his advantage.


  19. cha cha cha says:

    “Violence to remain high over the next 6 to 12 months, followed by partly scattered explosions with light shrapnel and beheadings by sundown.

    Comment by DISTURBIA — August 23, 2007″

    maybe the administration will trot out the ‘gathering storm’ talking point again.


  20. Police Action says:

    Sectarian violence remains high even with U.S. troops trying to hunt down the killers…so we need to leave asap and abandon all of the Iraqis to such murderers?

    Well that makes sense.


  21. Pretty Pretty Bird says:

    Oil-hungry troops and overpaid generals

    Eat shiit, candyasss. You arent worthy enough to lick their boots.


  22. Rasheed X says:

    Do you Crakkas really care about my Black Asiatic brothers in Iraq?
    No!
    You Klansmen just use this to attack the Whites your against.
    You’re all a bunch of White Devils!


  23. Menehune says:

    Well, duh. After that? Campfires and Kumbaya? Puppydogs and rainbows?


  24. Mr.Murder says:

    Fabulous Friedman’s forevah!

    Six more months! Six more months! Six more months!
    (Rove’s campaign rally slogan now and forevermore)


  25. Dave C says:

    Sectarian violence remains high even with U.S. troops trying to hunt down the killers…so we need to leave asap and abandon all of the Iraqis to such murderers?

    You act like you care about Iraq. Join the war effort then. Perhaps much of the violence is fueled by the presence of U.S. troops. Maybe the country was better off with a dictator who kept all of the differing folks in check. Maybe the U.S. should stop messing with other countries in an effort to steal their oil. It’s too late now to act like you give a shit.


  26. dim wit says:

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:40 pm

    you’re so altruistic. Does you altruism encompass Darfur as well?


  27. Juan C says:

    so we need to leave asap and abandon all of the Iraqis to such murderers?
    Well that makes sense.
    Comment by Police Action

    Oh, now I see…such concern for Iraqis.

    Guess you were not THAT concerned when entire villages were carpet bombed.


  28. Mark @ News Corpse says:

    When Catherine Herridge reported on this NIE on Fox News, the story began with the claim that there is still progress in many areas of Iraq.

    That’s funny … they haven’t been prefacing their stories on the midwest flooding by saying “Many areas are still dry.”

    *** Detox from Fox: Starve The Beast


  29. Dave C says:

    The altruism of the Right started after about a million Iraqis were killed as a result of the preemptive illegal attack on Iraq. Then they became concerned that if they left someone might get hurt.


  30. Rasheed X says:

    Juan C,
    Like your Spic ass cares about my Black Brothas in Iraq?
    What have you done for us?
    Your people are just as bad as the White Devil.
    You come from the White Devil.
    You spic!


  31. Juan C says:

    Does you altruism encompass Darfur as well?
    Comment by dim wit

    Even more…what about China? China is one of the worst countries when it comes to violation of human rights… Is there a plan to bomb China?


  32. Juan C says:

    Comment by Rasheed X

    The Joker is back.


  33. tarazan says:

    Six to twelve months !!…
    That’s about the time when Bush and Cheney end their political journey and war adventure in Iraq.


  34. Rasheed x says:

    Juan C,
    You racist scum, China would whip the Whitema’s ass!
    You act like you care you Rich spolied loser!


  35. Dave C says:

    China owns the U.S. You can’t attack China.


  36. Rasheed X says:

    Juan C,
    Joker, You think I’m funny you little spic.
    You would be laughing if you saw me and my Fruit of Islam Brothas come up to your Devil ass!
    You Spics are a variant of the White Devil!
    You are just as evil as the people you criticize!


  37. Police Action says:

    Maybe the country was better off with a dictator who kept all of the differing folks in check.

    Thats mighty big of you, considering you didnt have to live in Saddam’s Iraq.

    You must be taking your cue from John Kerry, who claims that Vietnam’s reeducation camps “werent that bad”. Ill bet they were pretty bad if you were the one being reeducated.


  38. ∞Ω says:

    Just a few more Friedman’s and all will be well.

    


  39. toasterhead says:

    Even more…what about China? China is one of the worst countries when it comes to violation of human rights… Is there a plan to bomb China?

    Comment by Juan C — August 23, 2007 @ 12:47 pm

    I don’t think they’d loan us the money to do that…

    Then again, maybe they would. China’s always had an unconventional approach to economics.


  40. Police Action says:

    Guess you were not THAT concerned when entire villages were carpet bombed.

    Link.

    You do understand the definition of “carpet bombing”?


  41. DRxJ says:

    The good news?
    School starts in less than 2 weeks!!!
    Joker aka Rasheed X will have no time to spend on the internet(s) due to his Introduction to Algebra I class

    Yipeee


  42. Vice President Bush says:

    Please use the proper nomenclature:

    Violence to remain high in Iraq over next 1-2 Friedman Units


  43. Krazny says:

    This is the paradox, that the fool bush has gotten us involved in: If we leave Iraq, the country is unstable, and the sectarian violence will continue for 10-15 years. If we stay in Iraq, the sectarian violence will continue for 10-15 years.

    Way to go Bush


  44. DigDug says:

    Sectarian violence remains high even with U.S. troops trying to hunt down the killers…so we need to leave asap and abandon all of the Iraqis to such murderers?

    Well that makes sense.

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:40 pm

    Violence is going to remain high in that country for DECADES. Whether we are there or not. We’ve created a hell of a mess and there are no good solutions available to us.

    BUT, according to polls of Iraqis, a majority of them believe that our presence actually is fueling the violence.


  45. Dave C says:

    It’s might big of you “Police Action” to be concerned about the welfare of Iraqis if the U.S. leaves given the hundreds of thousands killed to date. You’re right, I didn’t have to live in Saddam’s Iraq. Nor was I the dude who armed him back in the day. I keep hearing about how Saddam gassed the Kurds yet those same reports ignore the fact that the weapons he used came from the U.S. That’s why they were so convinced he had WMD, they’d provided them to him. So your concern is about 30 years late.


  46. nanlichi says:

    RX,

    You are one rascist f*ck. Go talk your shit somehwere else b*tch.


  47. Police Action says:

    The altruism of the Right started after about a million Iraqis were killed as a result of the preemptive illegal attack on Iraq.

    Which must coincide nicely with the libs new-found concern for those same Iraqis. I know you gave a crap about them when they were being murdered by Saddam the Gentle.


  48. DigDug says:

    Thats mighty big of you, considering you didnt have to live in Saddam’s Iraq.

    You must be taking your cue from John Kerry, who claims that Vietnam’s reeducation camps “werent that bad”. Ill bet they were pretty bad if you were the one being reeducated.

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:51 pm

    I would certainly rather live under Saddam’s rule than live in the HELL HOLE that we’ve turned Iraq into.

    And since millions of Iraqis have fled the country in the last few years I would guess they are feeling the same way.


  49. Rasheed X says:

    DRxJ,
    Why do ypou CraKKKa’s keep calling me a joker.
    Do you think it’;s funny what you devils have done to this world?
    It bothers you what I say because that you so called Progressives act like you care about us, the original man.
    You don’t.
    You use us as pawns in the struggle with you political adversaries.
    That’s why you put blacks in bad schools and make sure we’re illiterate!

    You are no better than the Conservatives.
    You are both the creation of Yacoub!


  50. Mr.Murder says:

    The re-education camps of ‘Nam, a country from the North who asked for official USA recognition and even adopted our COnstitution into their plan of government.

    The Viet Nam that was endorsed by the UN as being divided on the 17th parallel.

    The spilt Viet Nam that the ruler of the south refused to observe, plunging the region into war?

    Our puppeteer was happy, no?


  51. ∞Ω says:

    You would be laughing if you saw me and my Fruit …come up to your Devil ass!
    Comment by Rasheed X

    Perhaps you should call KKKarl.

    


  52. Juan C says:

    Comment by Rasheed X

    Gozer the Traveler. He will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the traveler came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrick supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor! Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!


  53. Police Action says:

    You’re right, I didn’t have to live in Saddam’s Iraq.

    Exactly. By your logic we should have Milosovic in power, considering he was keeping the old animosity between muslims and Christians from becoming a active bloodfeud. Ok, so like Saddam he killed people left and right, but hey the trains ran on time.


  54. Dave C says:

    Which must coincide nicely with the libs new-found concern for those same Iraqis. I know you gave a crap about them when they were being murdered by Saddam the Gentle.

    Let’s agree that neither the Reps or Dems have shown much concern for the welfare of Iraqi civilians over the last 40 years. And let’s assume that neither cares much more today. At least show that you care about U.S. troops & get them the hell out of there.


  55. Tobey Tall says:

    Poor Iraq nobody deserves Bush incompetence from Katrina to Baghdad


  56. Police Action says:

    Comment by Mr.Murder — August 23, 2007 @ 12:56 pm

    Regardless, their reeducation gulags werent exactly modeled on ParkRec daycamps, now were they? Kerry obviously thinks differently.


  57. DRxJ says:

    RX,

    You are one rascist f*ck. Go talk your shit somehwere else b*tch.

    Comment by nanlichi — August 23, 2007 @ 12:55 pm

    NAMEJACK ALERT


  58. hellinabucket says:

    Police Action, Kerry? Did you read any of the NIE? Kerry’s not mentioned once.

    Juan C. Brilliant Ghostbuster ref.


  59. Mr.Murder says:

    “Exactly. By your logic we should have Milosovic in power, considering he was keeping the old animosity between muslims and Christians from becoming a active bloodfeud. Ok, so like Saddam he killed people left and right, but hey the trains ran on time.”

    -idiot troll

    Saddam kept animosity from turning into violence. The Jews of Iraq have fled. So have the Christians of Iraq.

    Again your ignorance, and the fact the GOP opposed Milosevic’s being brought to justice, are contrapositive to your supposed stance on Iraq.


  60. hellinabucket says:

    PA, Logic? Use some.


  61. ∞Ω says:

    That’s why you put [me] in bad schools and make sure [I'm] illiterate!
    Comment by Rasheed X

    There, I fixed it for ya, Rash..
    Hope that helps with your illiteracy.

    


  62. RUCerious says:

    Who could have predicted that five years into this mess, violence would still be raging?
    Oh, what? Historians? Political Scientists? Mideast experts?
    Oh My.


  63. hellinabucket says:

    SecDef Cheney predicted the mess that would have occured. Republicans lie and soldiers die.


  64. chad says:

    Gee and Saddam the Gentle was created by Bush Sr. and Reagan arming him in his war against Iran while at the same time arming the contras in Iran. Essentially the U.S involvement in these region has been to through money and arms at the problem depending on which side serves U.S. interests the most. Did anybody catch the Daily Show last night he very sucessfully showed exactly how the Reagan and Bush sr. and now Bush Jr. has created the current situation in the middle east.


  65. Juan C says:

    Juan C. Brilliant Ghostbuster ref.
    Comment by hellinabucket

    ;)


  66. Juan C says:

    By your logic we should have Milosovic in power, considering he was keeping the old animosity between muslims and Christians from becoming a active bloodfeud.
    Comment by Police Action

    Saddam was supported by CIA and was given weapons by Reagan admin.

    KLA was supported by CIA and Milosevic was a IMF employee in order to derail victories made by the working class in Yugoslavia.

    Gee…CIA, IMF… I wonder who those institutions work for.


  67. Mr.Murder says:

    Yet Kerry said a law enforcement approach to fighting terror would work better than torture or disregard for the rule of law…


  68. Silly Trolls Tricks are for Kids says:

    Gee…CIA, IMF… I wonder who those institutions work for.
    Comment by Juan C

    They surely don’t work for Mr P’s heart-throb Wolfowitz!!


  69. shane says:

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:38 pm

    Nice name. Got fascism?


  70. shane says:

    Oil-hungry troops and overpaid generals who want this imperialistic aggression to wage forward.

    The rest of you libs accepting this ahole and his rant? It sort of goes against your professed concern for the troops, then again maybe its just me.

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:38 pm

    If you were paying attention, hah, you would see that this post has been removed. And you are just using a snippet from somebody else’s reply. So we don’t really know what the original poster was saying because he, unlike you, was scrubbed.


  71. shane says:

    Well that makes sense.

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:40 pm

    It makes as much sense as Bush telling us if we hadn’t left Viet Nam we could still win that war. Of course he left earlier than all the other draftees.


  72. Grand Moff Texan says:

    You are both the creation of Yacoub!

    And then he jumped on a flying saucer and practiced bombing-runs on the moon, our honor. It was the weirdest damned thing.
    .


  73. Grand Moff Texan says:

    should read: “your honor”
    .


  74. datdat says:

    This report, as well as the sudden loss of confidence in Prime Minister al-Maliki and the equally sudden warnings of an Iraqi “mini-Tet,” is meant to prepare the way, i.e., provide a justification, for a US-backed military takeover of the current US-installed “democratic” regime. And, all of this is meant to prepare the way for an attack on Iran.


  75. shane says:

    The good news?
    School starts in less than 2 weeks!!!
    Joker aka Rasheed X will have no time to spend on the internet(s) due to his Introduction to Algebra I class

    Yipeee

    Comment by DRxJ — August 23, 2007 @ 12:53 pm

    I don’t think they teach algebra in remedial math. More like times tables and what this + and = mean.


  76. shane says:

    Ok, so like Saddam he killed people left and right, but hey the trains ran on time.

    Comment by Police Action — August 23, 2007 @ 12:59 pm

    You think the people dying during this war are any less dead than the ones Saddam killed? Two million of the best and brightest have fled Iraq during this war and there was no refugee issue under Saddam, try to figure it out.


  77. RUCerious says:

    Joker aka Rasheed X will have no time to spend on the internet(s) due to his Introduction to Algebra I class
    Yipeee
    Comment by DRxJ — August 23, 2007 @ 12:53 pm

    I doubt that that troll could understand that if
    A = B and B = C then A= C

    More like if
    Iraq = VietNam and VietNam = defeat then Iraq needs more troops, to stay there forever = Victory.


  78. shane says:

    You are one rascist f*ck. Go talk your shit somehwere else b*tch.

    Comment by nanlichi — August 23, 2007 @ 12:55 pm

    NAMEJACK ALERT

    Comment by DRxJ — August 23, 2007 @ 1:04 pm

    He was talking to Rasheed, the white racist trying to act like he’s a black muslim.


  79. Krazny says:

    The simple fact that at least some Iraqi’s would prefer to have Saddam back in charge, shows just how badly the US has boggled post-Saddam Iraq.


  80. RUCerious says:

    It’s hard for me to figure how a dickhead like Rasheed would think that we’d assume he is black, when it’s painfully obvious that he’s a limited intelligence white tweaker.


  81. DRxJ says:

    He was talking to Rasheed, the white racist trying to act like he’s a black muslim.

    Comment by shane — August 23, 2007 @ 1:47 pm

    Whoops. My bad! I thought the Rx was indicative of my posting name.
    My sincere apologies nanlichi.


  82. shane says:

    Whoops. My bad! I thought the Rx was indicative of my posting name.
    My sincere apologies nanlichi.

    Comment by DRxJ — August 23, 2007 @ 1:53 pm

    I made the same mistake at first.


  83. ronjazz says:

    Eat shiit, candyasss. You arent worthy enough to lick their boots.

    Comment by Pretty Pretty Bird — August 23, 2007 @ 12:43 pm

    You, however, are the perfect bootlicker. Or have you moved on up to asslicker?


  84. Bush Friend says:

    Can anyone tell me what happen to “Osama bin Laden” from all this?

    Wasn’t he the cause of all this?

    You mean we have satellites can tell you if a dime is heads or tails but can’t find a sick man in the middle of the nothing?


  85. Dave C says:

    Osama has no oil. He was merely a tool used to allow Bush to attack another country that had oil. It’s bait & switch with hundreds of thousands of lives. Now comes the liberation part where they try & get the oil contract signed.


  86. toasterhead says:

    China owns the U.S. You can’t attack China.

    Comment by Dave C — August 23, 2007 @ 12:49 pm

    They’d just melt down our depleted uranium and sell it back to us as Barbie dolls anyway.


  87. KYJurisDoctor says:

    It sounds like “darned if we do, and darned if we don’t” scenario for us in the U. S.!


  88. KYJurisDoctor says:

    It sounds like “darned if we do, and darned if we don’t” scenario for us in the U. S.!

    http://OsiSpeaks.com or http://OsiSpeaks.org


  89. yourmother says:

    Oil-hungry troops and overpaid generals…

    If you really believe that, it’s a shame. I’m about as open-minded, progressive, and anti-bush as they come in the military. I’m also an Officer who will retire after another tour in Iraq. When I say you have no idea what you’re talking about, that nothing of what you said has any logic or reason behind it, and that differentiating between those who conduct military and security operations due to the orders of an arrogant, incompetent, and so forth and so on commander in chief voted in by our very own electorate …I’m wasting my breath even replying to your idiocy.
    Our generals do not create policy. They execute missions with limitations and whatever resources the military and country offers…Soldiers do not gain a GD thing from oil you idiot, they burn in the desert and make less money than the average American. The NIE is extremely dissapointing with the information. Much has been put out earlier by a number of respected newspapers, journals, other intelligence reports, etc., and will fail to influence any policy decisions the administration will make until, at the earliest, the spring of next year.


  90. Probus says:

    This surge was supposed to make political progress possible. Yet no political progress has been made. Instead we see republicans touting limited security progress from the surge. But without the political progress the violence will only get worse no matter how many troops are sent to Iraq.


  91. The High Road into the Null Anus of God says:

    > so we need to leave asap and
    > abandon all of the Iraqis to
    > such murderers?

    Please explain your unique concern for Iraqis as compared to people in other regions of the world who are being murdered in much larger numbers? Please explain why this shouldnt be a problem for U.N. like im sure you think massacres of people without oil under thier land should be.



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