Petraeus adviser: Violence reduction due to ‘luck.’
By on Nov 15th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
Petraeus adviser: Violence reduction due to ‘luck.’
In an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, Gen. David Petraeus’s adviser Stephen Biddle said that much of the U.S.’s recent “tactical successes” in Iraq have little to do with the impact of Bush’s escalation but instead are largely “luck.”
Q: Well what do you attribute this whole change on the ground to? Is this due to what is called “the surge,” or good diplomacy by the U.S. military, or just luck?
BIDDLE: All of those things have some role but I would put “luck” as probably the biggest.
View Most Popular
Advertisement
What We're About
What We're Fighting For
What We're Fighting Against
Featured
Subscribe to the Progress Report
Topic CloudView topics sorted by popularity
Afghanistan
Bachmann
Beck
Boehner
Bush
Cheney
Civil Rights
Congress
Corporate Ethics
Dobbs
Economy
Election
Energy
Environment
Ethics
Fox News
Gingrich
Global Warming
Hannity
Health Care
Immigration
International Relations
Iraq
Justice
Kristol
LGBT
Lieberman
Limbaugh
Maddow
McCain
Media
Military
Obama
Palin
Pelosi
Public Plan
Race
Radical Right
Religion
Sports
Steele
Stimulus
Tea Parties
Technology
Women's Rights
Visit Our Affiliated Sites
Reports
In-depth studies on select topics
Got a hot tip?
Have a hot news tip? We'd love to hear from you. Use the form below to send us the latest.
ArchivesBlog Roll
The bigger questions will be, “How do Republicans convince America they are the right people to fix Bush’s Republican failure in Iraq?” and “How can Republicans blame their Iraq failure on Democrats?” It appears Senate Democrats want to wrap themselves around and continue to enable Mr. 29%’s legacy of war, death, and debt.
November 15th, 2007 at 7:50 pmBIDDLE: All of those things have some role but I would put “luck†as probably the biggest.
Now there’s a ringing endosement of the new strategy! With Bush in charge, wouldn’t it more aptly be described as “dumb” luck?
November 15th, 2007 at 7:51 pmSomebody got an interview with CFR?!?!?!?!?!!?
November 15th, 2007 at 7:53 pmIt’s a hedge. Now when things go to hell (back to hell? More to hell?) they can reverse themselves and blame “bad luck”. None of them take responsibility for anything.
November 15th, 2007 at 7:54 pmNow we’re interjecting “luck” into our foreign policy. Now I know that we’re doomed by the morons running things.
November 15th, 2007 at 7:55 pmEveryone needs a little luck now and then. If violence is down due to luck, so be it. I’m glad people are getting lucky and not dying as much.
BTW, the flap of skin over the Turkey’s beak is call a “snood”. I figure some farmer called it a snot-hood, and the rest is history.
November 15th, 2007 at 7:57 pmI wonder, is Busk’s apparent lack of intellect:
a. Bad luck
November 15th, 2007 at 7:57 pmor
b. Will of God
It appears Senate Democrats want to wrap themselves around and continue to enable Mr. 29%’s legacy of war, death, and debt.
Comment by Above the Clouds
How does this post in any way indicate that the Democrats are supporting Bush? From what they have been doing the last week, there is some hope that they have grown a spine and will start doing what is right for this country. The house voted a funding bill that contains a requirement that Bush start bringing our troops home and they have passed the FISA bill that DOES NOT give the telcoms immunity. If they follow through on what they are doing, we may be back onto the road to recovery of this nation. If they once again cave, we are all pretty much fu(ked.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:00 pmDumb Thumb! Maybe I should stick with Chimperror.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:01 pmThe “success” in Iraq has to do with two things.
1) Iraq has for the most part been ethnically cleansed. The Sunnis live in one area and the Shiites in another. So they aren’t killing each other as often.
2) The US is not sending our ground troops out nearly as often as they have been in the past. That cuts down on the number of casualties from roadside bombs. Instead of using our ground troops we are now bombing the snot out of the country, killing innocent men, women and children.
The death toll in Iraq for Iraqi’s hasn’t really dropped. The Iraqis are killing each other less often but we are killing more by dropping bombs on them.
And even if calm did prevail in Iraq for some strange reason. Until there is political reconciliation, that calm will never last.
We have done all we can do in Iraq. At this point we are nothing more than an occupying force and we need to stop occupying Iraq against the will of the Iraqi people. And please don’t tell me about American “assets” in Iraq. We have no “assets”. The “assets” we have, permanent bases and the obscene embassy are on land we appropriated from the Iraqi’s and therefore they belong to the people of Iraq. And the oil beneath their soil belongs to no one but the people of Iraq.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:05 pmThis revelation will have serious consequences on the world stage… has Bush no common sense?
November 15th, 2007 at 8:06 pmFor whatever reason al Sadr has reined in his forces; apparently the ethnic cleansing is more or less complete. The only problem with accepting this as a primary reason would be an admission that many, indeed most, of the bombs were planted by al Sadr forces rather than al Qaeda forces.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:12 pmSomehow I think the Muqtada al-Sadr on August 29, ordering a stand down for six months by his loyalists following the deaths of more than 50 Shia Muslim pilgrims during sectarian fighting in the holy city of Karbala the day before has more to do with the drop in violence than anything Chimpy McFlightsuit or his yes-men have done.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:16 pmgee, I never heard of successful ethnic cleansing referred to as “luck” before. It must be a neocon thing.
(I’m sure Sadir’s unilateral 6 month moratorium on attacking Iraqis has nothing to do with it either.)
November 15th, 2007 at 8:41 pm.
I doubt this type of news never gets to Iraq. I am sure the troops would love to hear this come from their leaders. Do you think Rush will mention this in his propaganda show?
November 15th, 2007 at 8:42 pmViolence reduction due to ‘luck.’
November 15th, 2007 at 8:43 pmLuck? we have killed up to 1 million Iraqi people and displaced another 4 million. If enough genocide is committed violence will most likely go down.
The “success†in Iraq has to do with two things.
1) Iraq has for the most part been ethnically cleansed. The Sunnis live in one area and the Shiites in another. So they aren’t killing each other as often.
2) The US is not sending our ground troops out nearly as often as they have been in the past. That cuts down on the number of casualties from roadside bombs.
Comment by bilbobaggins — November 15, 2007 @ 8:05 pm
I agree with your first point, Bilbo, but from all that I READ about Petraeus plan
November 15th, 2007 at 8:49 pmaccepting this as a primary reason would be an admission that many, indeed most, of the bombs were planted by al Sadr forces rather than al Qaeda forces.
Comment by DallasNE
Yeah, they may have to admit that they just made up AQM. The people they were calling AQ were mostly insurgents who were more than happy to pretend they were AQ because they thought it gave them more “badness”.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:49 pmBTW, the flap of skin over the Turkey’s beak is call a “snoodâ€. I figure some farmer called it a snot-hood, and the rest is history.
Comment by ForTruth — November 15, 2007 @ 7:57 pm
Sorry to trample your story, but according to the OED: “A fillet, band, or ribbon, for confining the hair; latterly, in Scotland (and the north of England), the distinctive hair-band worn by young unmarried women. More recently, a fashionable bag-like or closed woman’s hairnet, usu. worn at the back of the head.”
So, a turkey’s “snood” was undoubtedly named for its resemblance to the hair-band.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:50 pmDuh. Friends don’t let friend drink and type. Take two.
The “success†in Iraq has to do with two things.
1) Iraq has for the most part been ethnically cleansed. The Sunnis live in one area and the Shiites in another. So they aren’t killing each other as often.
2) The US is not sending our ground troops out nearly as often as they have been in the past. That cuts down on the number of casualties from roadside bombs.
Comment by bilbobaggins — November 15, 2007 @ 8:05 pm
I agree with your first point, Bilbo, but from all that I READ about Petraeus plan it called for troops deployed more deeply into Iraqi neighborhoods and sent on more patrols. I have read many accounts in many outlets that that is happening. I have heard a few people on TP suggest the soldiers are faking going on patrol – this is the only place I have heard that, but it was firsthand from a military mom, so I accept it at face value. In any case, our strategy in 05 06 was stay on huge bases and NOT patrol – the surge was supposed to employ the opposite.
Al-Sadr’s agreement to standdown, Iran’s quiet pledge to cease sending in EFPs and the Sunnis turning on AQ are the story of the last six months. What the next six is going to look like the Gods only know.
Comment by Keltoi at Night — November 15, 2007 @ 8:49 pm
November 15th, 2007 at 8:54 pmSorry to trample your story, but according to the OED: “A fillet, band, or ribbon, for confining the hair; latterly, in Scotland (and the north of England), the distinctive hair-band worn by young unmarried women. More recently, a fashionable bag-like or closed woman’s hairnet, usu. worn at the back of the head.â€
So, a turkey’s “snood†was undoubtedly named for its resemblance to the hair-band.
Comment by gummitch — November 15, 2007 @ 8:50 pm
Okay, confess it Gummitch, are you in the SCA?
November 15th, 2007 at 8:58 pmThere was a reduction in violence after all surges, but it was a TEMPORARY reduction. Remember when the violence subsided after Saddam’s capture, the two elections, Bremer’s handover of control to the Iraqs. etc. etc. etc. It’s best to look at the oil output and the continuing failure to meet those benchmarks. Those two failures tell me violence is NOT subsiding substantially, if at all. Americans are (again) being played for fools by our military.
November 15th, 2007 at 9:05 pmThere was a reduction in violence after all surges, but it was a TEMPORARY reduction. Remember when the violence subsided after Saddam’s capture, the two elections, Bremer’s handover of control to the Iraqs. etc. etc. etc.
Comment by corsair — November 15, 2007 @ 9:05 pm
This is true, but what I hope and pray is that the difference this time around is that the Iraqi military finally, finally may be trained and experienced enough to hold the line. It takes years and years to train a good NCO, and to the extent there were any good NCO’s in Saddams army we cashiered them, like idiots. It is just possible that with the developements I mentioned in 21 and an actual Iraqi security force in existence, this reduction in violence might, MIGHT stick.
If we are Lucky.
November 15th, 2007 at 9:12 pm“I have heard a few people on TP suggest the soldiers are faking going on patrol – this is the only place I have heard that, but it was firsthand from a military mom, so I accept it at face value. ”
Read Dahr Jamail:
http://www.dahrjamailiraq.com/hard_news/archives/iraq/000668.php
November 15th, 2007 at 9:17 pmThe reason the Iraqi military won’t defend itself is not because of cowardice or lack of training. A person in the USA becomes a Marine after only 8 weeks of boot camp. The reason Iraqi “troops” won’t defend themselves is because half the Iraqi “military” are insurgents. Sgt. Kevin O’Flarity, a squad leader in Iraq, said “Half of the Iraqi security forces are insurgents.” See link…
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/27/news/delta.php?page=2
November 15th, 2007 at 9:17 pmFrom the article: WATERTOWN, New York, Oct 24 (IPS) – Iraq war veterans now stationed at a base here say that morale among U.S. soldiers in the country is so poor, many are simply parking their Humvees and pretending to be on patrol, a practice dubbed “search and avoid” missions. [. . .]”
November 15th, 2007 at 9:20 pmLuck AKA “ethnic cleansing”
November 15th, 2007 at 9:43 pmFrom the article: WATERTOWN, New York, Oct 24 (IPS) – Iraq war veterans now stationed at a base here say that morale among U.S. soldiers in the country is so poor, many are simply parking their Humvees and pretending to be on patrol, a practice dubbed “search and avoid†missions. [. . .]â€
Comment by barfly — November 15, 2007 @ 9:20 pm
For what it is worth, it IS time to start drawing down and get the Hell out of there. We have done all we can do. If the Iraqis still can’t provide their own security after this long…no one can say we didn’t try to help them transition from our removing Saddam. Unfortunately, I think the latest showdown on Capitol Hill that emerged today is going to make it harder, not easier to get out.
November 15th, 2007 at 9:59 pmUnfortunately, I think the latest showdown on Capitol Hill that emerged today is going to make it harder, not easier to get out.
Comment by Keltoi at Night — November 15, 2007 @ 9:59 pm
You may be right on that one. I think both parties are trying to get the other to “take the blame”. The Dems want Bushco to admit they effed up while the Reps only hope is to be “forced” to draw down and PRAY things blow up. It’s about enough to make a guy puke.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:06 pmYou may be right on that one. I think both parties are trying to get the other to “take the blameâ€. The Dems want Bushco to admit they effed up while the Reps only hope is to be “forced†to draw down and PRAY things blow up. It’s about enough to make a guy puke.
Comment by pete — November 15, 2007 @ 10:06 pm
Big time. And y’know the weirdest thing? I feel like the same dynamic is at work in Iraq vis the Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias. It’s like we had to get to a place where both sides would say, “I didn’t lose this thing”, but both sides got sick of the fighting, albeit both sides did this for different reasons and in the end they really won…it is their country though. I hope they are happy with each other once we are gone. They will both blame us and miss us, and they will be right to do both. ‘Nuff to make you puke, indeed.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:13 pmLuck? Nope the Iraqis are just busy killing each other at the moment, but they will eventually concentrate on US troops again.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:18 pmComment by Jay Randal — November 15, 2007 @ 10:18 pm
There’s also soom evidence to suggest that non-Iraqis are moving to Afghanistan, to participate in the “winter offensive”, while others are staying in, or moving to, Pakistan. It’s really going to be a revealing “Friedman”.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:28 pmComment by republicans hate facts — November 15, 2007 @ 10:31 pm
Actually, that’s what he said. The Reps. are trying to maneuver in such a way that they can move some of the blame and the “sheeple” are dumb enough to buy it. If the Dems don’t stay focused they can still lose. Frankly, I have no illusions. It’s still a volatile situation and volatile situations can produce unexpected results.After all, the Republicriminals still manage to frame every debate.
BTW, I think it’s rude to interrupt a civil exchange of ides, even if I agree with your position. I would appreciate it if you save the insults for the idiots.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:47 pmWell, so much for the “the surge strategy is working thanks to our Glorious Leader’s magnificent strategic vision” babble that the Bush cultists like to come spew at ThinkProgress…
November 15th, 2007 at 10:57 pmIf the Dems don’t stay focused they can still lose. Frankly, I have no illusions.
Comment by pete — November 15, 2007 @ 10:47 pm
Neither should you. But as a sole to Crown conservative, there are no good choices out there…
November 15th, 2007 at 10:58 pmComment by Keltoi at Night — November 15, 2007 @ 10:58 pm
Well, I do rather like both my Senators, and my Rep isn’t too smarmy. It’s just too bad my, former, party has been taken over by muscle-headed tank-brains; on the national level.
November 15th, 2007 at 11:14 pmWell, I do rather like both my Senators, and my Rep isn’t too smarmy. It’s just too bad my, former, party has been taken over by muscle-headed tank-brains; on the national level.
Comment by pete — November 15, 2007 @ 11:14 pm
I feel ya….whole world is a mess. If I ever found myself believing in something that happened on a National level I’d pinch myself.
Shalom, Pete.
November 15th, 2007 at 11:18 pmanother factor ya’all are forgetting the whole $$$ “surge”.. we are making the equivalent of what, in america, would be a billionaire, out of sunni chieftans left and right. we’re paying for peace. like i said, i have no doubt that if we paid mob bosses in america billions of dollars not to engage in criminal activity, we’d see a dramatic reduction in organized crime. the fact betrayus is cozying up to chalabi the fraudster and serial briber is further evidence of this. I laugh every time I hear the united states claim “we don’t negotiate with terrorists”.. heck.. not only are they negotiating with them, but their paying them off also… we’re arming sunnis, who are still hostile to the central government, which is a further recipe for distaster. whats going on now in iraq is the equivlanent of a painkiller to treat cancer.. it may address some of the symptoms but no progress whatsoever is being made on the underlying problem..
November 16th, 2007 at 6:26 amIt sure was ‘lucky’ that those pilgrims were slaughtered, and al-Sadr declared a cease-fire in the ongoing sectarian civil war in Iraq.
Pure luck that al-Sadr was so disgusted and shocked at the deaths of religious pilgrims, when he was less so by the skulls drilled and the body counts of secular Iraqis in the Baghdad morgue every day. Pure luck that al-Sadr finally decided that enough dedicated MUSLIM Iraqis had died for this conflict.
How fortunate for Bush, Rush and FOX News, as well.
A Hague trial and a firing squad is too good for these criminals.
November 16th, 2007 at 10:52 amWhatever you people have to do to keep your thoughts away from the fact that things are getting better in Iraq.
Comment by DreamCrusher — November 16, 2007 @ 11:05 am
Whatever you have to grab onto to realize that any improvement in Iraq has nothing to do with USer tactics, surges, or any other bullshit the idiots in charge are trying to sell. You’re so easy, they saw you coming from miles away. without unthinking morons like you they wouldn’t have had a prayer at raping the treasury, murdering millions of innocents or shredding the Constitution. You may not think there’s a “shred” of evidence for ethnic cleansing, but that’s because you’re another keyboard commando, a chickenhawk without the balls to go find out for yourself. What a lousy excuse for an American you are.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:36 am