NIE: Iran ‘Halted’ Nuclear Weapons Program In 2003, Unlikely To Develop A Weapon In This Decade
NIE: Iran ‘Halted’ Nuclear Weapons Program In 2003, Unlikely To Develop A Weapon In This Decade
A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released today concludes with “high confidence” that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” From the report’s findings:
We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.
The intelligence community’s 2005 assessment concluded, inaccurately, that “Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons” and “could produce enough fissile material for a weapon by the end of this decade.” But as the new NIE finds, Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability until after 2015 “because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.”
This new NIE is long overdue. It was reportedly completed a year ago, but blocked by the White House. IPS reported:
A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has been held up for more than a year in an effort to force the intelligence community to remove dissenting judgments on the Iranian nuclear programme, and thus make the document more supportive of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s militarily aggressive policy toward Iran.
As ThinkProgress has documented, the White House’s manipulation of the Iran NIE bore a striking resemblance to the controversies that played out over pre-war Iraq intelligence.
But even with Cheney’s meddling, this NIE makes it clear that there is no imminent danger from Iran’s nuclear program. Newsweek’s Howard Fineman recently reported that the intelligence community is trying to send a message to “slow down what the president, most particularly the vice president” in what they “want to do in Iran.”
UPDATE: National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley “quickly issued a statement describing the N.I.E. as containing positive news rather than reflecting intelligence mistakes. ‘It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,’ Mr. Hadley said.” View his full statement here.
UPDATE II: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says the Iran NIE “indicates that we should do what I have talked about doing for more than a year now: Follow the Ronald Regan theory of diplomacy. … What did Ronald Reagan do? He started his diplomats working with the evil people in the Soviet people, as he referred to, to work something out. And he did. He met with the leaders of the Soviet Union he didn’t particularly like. And that’s what we should be doing with Iran. We should be having a surge of diplomacy with Iran. And based upon this, I think it would be a pretty good idea.”
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66 Responses to “NIE: Iran ‘Halted’ Nuclear Weapons Program In 2003, Unlikely To Develop A Weapon In This Decade”
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Yeah, so if it says Iran doesn’t have them, you are correct. And if it says Iran does have them, you are correct too? How does that work?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:11 pmThis won’t matter - Bush, his corrupt administration and neocon buddies will still want to go to war with Iran.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:12 pmI want to see the Iranian NIE regarding the US nuke built in Los Alamos by Oppenheimer.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:14 pmHmmm… this looks like the NIE that was produced on Iraq’s WMD, and we all know how that turned out….
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:17 pmThis NIE report will block Bush’s AIPAC cronies from going further.
Juan C: Yeah, aren’t we supposed to be abiding by the non-proliferation treaties we’ve signed, too?? Or are we “above the law” across the board now??
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:18 pmHere’s Fox News’ Headline:
National Intelligence Team: Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003
The U.S. intelligence community has concluded with “high confidence” that Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure, but is continuing to enrich uranium, and could be capable of developing a weapon as early as late 2009.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,314708,00.html
It’s scary to think that conservative want war.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:18 pmNational Security Adviser Stephen Hadley “quickly issued a statement describing the N.I.E. as containing positive news rather than reflecting intelligence mistakes. ‘It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,’ Mr. Hadley said.â€
Jesus H. Christ. That little gem is a masterpiece of pretzel logic. :o/
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:20 pmLooks like congress is encouraging Bush to start a war with Iran, just like they did with Iraq in ‘03. Right, Trolls?
Write to your President. (Sorry, make that a phone call; he struggles with reading text.) Ask him to be brave and courageous against these warmongering congresscritters and to maintain the peace & serenity we’ve enjoyed as a country these past 7 years.
/sarc
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:23 pmSo… Anyone want to comment on what the reasons for Iran’s halt in their pursuit of a nuclear weapon was in 2003? Hmmm. What else happened in 2003…. I’m trying to put my finger on it…
Comment by DreamCrusher — December 3, 2007 @ 1:18 pm
###
In 2003 they found out that they can attack the US anytime they want, and in response we would attack another country. Just ask Saudi.
Either way you look at it, there is NO REASON, whatsoever, to bomb Iran.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:23 pmThe whole Iran thing is just a switch the Bush administration turns up to 11 when they want to put a whole lot of free oil money into the pockets of their Saudi friends. Rachet up tension, oil shoots up, the right people get richer. When it becomes clear that consumers are afraid to spend too much money for Christmas, turn down the switch again and oil miraculously plunges. Consumer confidence goes up again, more flat-screen TVs are charged to mastercard and another group of the right people get richer.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:23 pmCue someone with the tired “Yeah but they want to wipe Israel off the map” deal
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:25 pmDo they have “Weapons of Mass Destruction program-related activities” like Iraq?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:25 pmToday’s NIE report lies in stark contrast to the White House’s propaganda campaign laying the groundwork for military action against Iran that dates back almost six years—to Bush’s 2002 State of the Union address in which he designated Iran as a founding member of the “axis of evil.†Since then, this drumbeat has waxed and waned as other concerns—primarily the disastrous invasion and occupation of Iraq—have often commanded center stage. With the Bush administration approaching its final year in office, a renewed push and a shorter fuse have become increasingly evident. My 3-minute YouTube video entitled “Forewarned Is Forearmed: Bush On Iran†is available HERE. It offers a very brief but deeply troubling chronicle of the president’s public warmongering and demonization of Iran.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:26 pmNational Security Adviser Stephen Hadley quickly issued a statement saying, “It confirms that we were right to be worried that Iran is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons.â€
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:27 pmComment by gulfwargrunt — December 3, 2007 @ 1:25 pm
Thanks so much! I had almost forgotten about that gem.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:28 pmNIE: “We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.”
Fox News: “[Iran] is continuing to enrich uranium, and could be capable of developing a weapon as early as late 2009.”
New story, same mendacity.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:28 pmConsumer confidence goes up again, more flat-screen TVs are charged to mastercard and another group of the right people get richer.
Comment by Menehune
Excellent.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:29 pmOT; Groooooovy Internet radio station. Technicolor Web of Sound(TWOS). 60s psychedelic music all the time. Far out. Out of sight. Can you dig it?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:30 pmBut shouldn’t we still try to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here and the consequences of our inaction could be a mushroom cloud and they are such a huge country that could just take us over if we tried to actually communicate with them oh I’m so so so so so so scared!!!!!
This has been an edition of Republican Neocon Puppet Theater. Where irrational overblown fear is the tool of tyrants!
Until next time,
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:30 pmRemember to hide in fear of the scary foreign people!
Well, thank goodness the decisive efforts by the U.S. in 2003 made Iran see the light of day. Talk softly, but carry a big stick.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:31 pmSo… Anyone want to comment on what the reasons for Iran’s halt in their pursuit of a nuclear weapon was in 2003? Hmmm. What else happened in 2003…. I’m trying to put my finger on it…
Comment by DreamCrusher
The U.S. does not attack countries which possess nuclear weapons. If Iran wants to be assured that the U.S. would never attack them, they would be developing nuclear weapons as fast as they could.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:33 pmHmmmm…
Comment by DreamCrusher — December 3, 2007 @ 1:27 pm
Maybe it was that unexpected win by Australia over India in the cricket world cup. The premise you put forth is faulty until you can substantiate it in any meaningful way. Weren’t you just claiming relative to climate that and CA fires that no single event could be traceable to a single cause in a complex N-dimensional system?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:33 pmohhhh, that’s a new one… the War in Iraq was justified because it stopped Iran’s Nuclear Weapons program….
just when you think you’ve heard it all…
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:33 pm#20…did you notice that the talk about the motgage rate freeze started only AFTER it became clear that Christmas shopping was seriously down? Lots of people have lost their homes in the last six months, but they only address it when it impacts consumer confidence. Charge on, America!
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:34 pmJT, please shut your foolish yap and crawl back under your bridge, ok? It’s safer under there.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:35 pmAnd wouldn’t it be nice if we had further intelligence about Iran’s nuclear capabilities… but the current regime decided it was better to blow the cover of the CIA operative who was tasked with this as petty revenge than to actually have good solid Intel.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:35 pmBut what was it that stopped Iran from continuing with their nuclear weapons program in 2003? Was it…. because the US made a little visit next door?
Brilliant argument. Hey, maybe we should invade South Korea next!
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:37 pmThat’s why Neo con experienced Wolfowitz was called to verify, meaning another sell of WMD war with Iran. A duplicate of Iraq war.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:38 pmwhat was it that stopped Iran from continuing with their nuclear weapons program in 2003? Was it…. because the US made a little visit next door?
Comment by DreamCrusher
Where we proceded to get so bogged down in an endless conflict that we had no capacity to respond to any other threats? Yeah, I’m sure that has them scared…
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:39 pmEven though report seems pretty cut and dry , even the lap dog reporters are trying to spin this , Ed Henry said it’s a ” MIXED BAG ” and Fox WH reporter used the same words a ” MIXED BAG “.
Chubby Cheek Ed Henry (CNN)was the most emphatic saying it’s a mixed bag ….because ” they still want nuclear weapons ” .
Makes sense to me , they suspend their nuclear weapons program , because ” they want a weapons program .
It was figuring out if they were actually quoting somebody or just spinning or both .
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:43 pmBut what does the Plan B document say?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:44 pmThe fact that honest intelligence experts got this report relelased to the public is quite probably what caused Cheney’s irregular heart beat recently.
Let’s all hope that the actual release today doesn’t kill him —– NOT.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:44 pmDepends on what the meaning of ‘unlikely’ is like
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:45 pmSo… Anyone want to comment on what the reasons for Iran’s halt in their pursuit of a nuclear weapon was in 2003? Hmmm. What else happened in 2003…. I’m trying to put my finger on it…
Comment by DreamCrusher
Yeah, maybe Iran decided to divert their attention to consolidating their ties with the new Shiite government in Iraq and assorted Shiite militia. Since the Maliki government in Iraq has talked about “mutual defense” with Iran (while visiting Tehran), if we attack Iran, will Iraq attack us?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:46 pmSo… Anyone want to comment on what the reasons for Iran’s halt in their pursuit of a nuclear weapon was in 2003? Hmmm. What else happened in 2003…. I’m trying to put my finger on it…
Comment by DreamCrusher — December 3, 2007 @ 1:18 pm
We removed Iran’s #1 enemy and allowed them to gain power exponentially?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:48 pmComment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 1:45 pm
I had no idea you live and sleep in Israel. No wonder you might have some concerns. I think the little guy with that funky “ChessKing” jacket is less of a concern then you might think. Many coutries seek nuclear weapons. They are a good means of deterence
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:50 pmBilly Hill became unstuck in the head.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:56 pmComment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 1:54 pm
Plus the prime minister’s name must be much easier for you to spell properly
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:57 pmI’d be interested to see the recent statements of the administration (and for fun, Neocon alumni like John Bolton), versus the statements of Mohammed El-Baradei, and how they compare to what’s in the NIE…
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:58 pmIsraelis with their Mossad and Aman intelligence agencies.
Comment by Tracy2 — December 3, 2007 @ 1:28 pm
Yes, no reason for them to want to wipe iran off the map.
Simpletons. rightards are simpletons, unable to process anything more complex than “boo!”.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:58 pmCheney and the other neocons, both inside and outside the government, must be absolutely desperate if they are willing to repeat the “fixed” intelligence on Iraq with Iran. Something about insanity repeating the same actions over and over again and expecting different results?
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:58 pmHmmmm…
Comment by DreamCrusher — December 3, 2007 @ 1:27 pm
Why bother to respond to this troll? Especially when the NIE itself includes an explanation that doesn’t require the troll’s twisted assumptions. Of course, he probably knows more about it than the authors of the document . . .
Hmmm. Nothing in there about the Glorious Invasion.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:06 pmSomething about insanity repeating the same actions over and over again and expecting different results?
Comment by impeachcheneythenbush — December 3, 2007 @ 1:58 pm
well, when you have traitors and simpletons like creamcruiser and bigfart eagerly gobbling your republicum, why not try again? it’s clear that the warmongers know that there are still a few morons that will buy into their lies, and make a lot of partisan hackery noise about it, as we get to see here, day in, day out. if Bush had not allowed the 9/11 attacks, they would have been out of office in 2004, not to return for decades. they have more love for power and profit than for country and citizenry, and they have a handful of traitors eager to kiss their asses. they don’t mind if 3000 people are killed to get it started, and they certainly have no love for the troops, given the outrageous treatment before, during and after deployment. a full Nuremburg treatment will be necessary to cleanse the world of these mass-murdering psychopaths.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:08 pmI am anxiously awaiting the Vice President and his next statements on how Iran will be armed with Nukes before Christmas and is looking to align themselves with those warring on Christmas.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:10 pmComment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 2:12 pm
You talk silly
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:14 pmIAEA in numerous reports and statements and actual inspections inside Iran said Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons,specially the last report a month ago.
Al Baradie,the head of inspection team, said there is no evidence that Iran is pursuing or developing nuclear weapons.
Iran said it is not developing weapons.
Sounds familiar !! Al Bradie said that after an months and years of inspecting Iraq..there is no evidence that Iraq is developing any WMDS. But the war began over the claims that Saddam was lying..and now Iran is lying…
Where are the WMDS of Iraq?!!
The most talked about subject (WMDS) before the Iraq war started in 2003 is no longer news anymore…!!
IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF…?!!
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:18 pmYes dbadbass, I have noticed a change in Iran’s prime sinister when one aims the pointy end of a “Jericho†IBM at his pooper.
Comment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 2:12 pm
Iran doesn’t have a prime minister, actually. They have a democratically-elected president and a supreme leader, but no PM.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:20 pmComment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 2:12 pm
Another well thought out and intelligent post by our resident loon Hill Billy.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:21 pmComment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 2:12 pm
You talk silly
Comment by dbadass
Yes, he speaks fluent neocon.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:22 pmI have not quite been the same since that last 1 and a half gainer into the mosh pit at a Crowbar concert.
Comment by Billy Hill — December 3, 2007 @ 2:20 pm
Sounds like a case of amnesia to me. The only cure is to have an anvil dropped on your head.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:22 pm“What else happened in 2003…. I’m trying to put my finger on it…”
Your voice broke?
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:30 pmI’m betting that the White House capitulated to this report finally coming out because Bush was told that there would be a revolt by the general staff at the Pentagon if he ordered a bombing campaign against Iran.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:33 pmYou’re right, there’s no current reason to bomb Iran, which is why the Bush administration hasn’t done so. But what was it that stopped Iran from continuing with their nuclear weapons program in 2003? Was it…. because the US made a little visit next door? Was it… because the US/UK got Libya to give up their nuke program, and the entire black market operation of AQ Khan that had been providing parts to Iran?
Hmmmm…
Comment by DreamCrusher — December 3, 2007 @ 1:27 pm
Maybe they realized they didn’t need nukes to attack the U.S. Just a few dudes with boxcutters could totally disrupt the infrastructure of the country and cost it trillions of dollars for years to come. No real need to spend their own money on a nuclear program.
If you’re suggesting that they disbanded a nuclear program because of the attack on Iraq, that doesn’t make any sense. Iraq didn’t have a nuclear program and they were attacked. Iraq didn’t attack the U.S. and they were attacked. Iraq didn’t even have WMD and they were attacked. Why would Iran disband their defence system to avoid an attack when preemptive attacks can be based on fake intelligence? They must know that if the U.S. chooses to attack them it will have little to do with their actions and everything to do with oil.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:57 pmYour voice broke?
Comment by bernard quatermass
LMAO!!
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:57 pmLeftside Annie
Your ability to post tripe and be a bully behind the keyboard is ineffectual and downright silly. If you can’t stand contrarian viewpoints, then just admit to yourself that you are closeminded and unable to comprehend a broad array of intellectual discourse.
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:00 pmOh good Iran is no longer an axil of Evil country and Bush should keep all options on the table INCLUDING DIRECT TALKS
starting with an apology
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:01 pmWhat else happened in 2003?
Oh! Can I play too?
Gas prices began to skyrocket? (Helping Iran’s bottom line very nicely thank you very much)
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:11 pmSo, in other words, the combination of Bush’s diplomacy, tough talk and military action in Iraq paid off and successfully stopped the Iranians from pursuing their nuclear weapons program.
Another success for President Bush.
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:59 pmSo, in other words, the combination of Bush’s diplomacy, tough talk and military action in Iraq paid off and successfully stopped the Iranians from pursuing their nuclear weapons program.
Another success for President Bush.
Comment by Exley
What military action? Are you aware of some military action that Bush took against Iran that we aren’t?
What this proves to me is that these problems can be dealt with without the use of military force. Just like it was in North Korea.
So, my question to you is why are you and others always advocating invasion every time some foreign power starts to look like a possible threat.
To me it sounds like you’re trying to have your cake and eat it too. You claim military action is the only way to deal with these problems and then as soon as a situation is dealt with without force you quickly leap to claim it as a victory, even though your opposed it.
Here’s the other problem: Bush has had this report for the last year and is still walking around talking about how Iran is becoming great nuclear threat to us. So what’s up with that?
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:06 pmSo, in other words, the combination of Bush’s diplomacy, tough talk and military action in Iraq paid off and successfully stopped the Iranians from pursuing their nuclear weapons program.
Another success for President Bush.
Comment by Exley
What military action? Are you aware of some military action that Bush took against Iran that we aren’t?
Comment by DigDug
Sorry, I just re-read your post and noticed you said military action in Iraq.
*sigh*
I’ve heard this arguement a lot lately and It’s completely rediculous. How did getting bogged down in Iraq and over-stretching our military so we’re un-able to deal with other emerging threats scare Iran into cooperating?
If anything it has empowered and emboldened them.
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:12 pmDigDug,
This topic is being discussed further in the later Iran-NIE thread above.
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:18 pmWhat a relief. Maybe we can ALL start beating the drums of peace…
~Sean
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:19 pmImmediately after 9/11, the Iranian government expressed sympathy with the United States and came down hard on the terrorists. Iran was headed by a moderate reform government. Iran’s president was angling towards better relations with the United States. He had popular support and sought to take on the religious fanatics in charge of Iran. However, Bush had to create his axis of evil and rebuffed attempts by the Iranian government to better relations. The moderates lost and we now have a far more radicalized government. Indeed, North Korea also reacted by leaving the treaty and testing a nuke. Of course, we finally negotiated back to the same deal that Clinton had negotiated. (Yes, the Koreans had some secret research on the side, like most countries. It took the Bush arrogance to turn the research into production and testing.)
The Iranians are not really deterred by our current military posture in Iraq. Instead, they have seen the limits of our military power. The dissident citizens of Iran know the muck that we made of deposing Saddam. I am sure that they are really anxious for our help. The NIE makes it clear that Iran was more frightened of the pressure by its economic trading partners than the United States.
December 3rd, 2007 at 5:40 pmSo you actually think it was inside job?….either the Bush administration helped with the attacks or knew they were going to happen and allowed it to? Are you high as a kite? Do you have any evidence?
Comment by Tracy2 — December 3, 2007 @ 5:03 pm
Ali Mohamed was a CIA agent, and he was behind the first WTC bombing, and set up the training camps in Afghanistan where the 911 bombers were trained. He was also let roam free after the first WTC bombers, by none other than the current AG Mukasey.
You didn’t know that - did you moron?
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:29 pmWhat is going to take for all of America to understand BUSH wants war with IRAN just like he did to Iraq ? Ahmadinejad already said on YOUTUBE to a American reporter that he did NOT want WAR with the USA and he wasnt making NUKES ! Period …and he laughed …so what if he did ? Other word we have a dictator period .Like Hitler ..But this one looks like you and me in a suit and smiles and makes jokes “everything is funny ” when its not at all funny …Dead Troops , crippled Troops …bankrupt Troops ! All for what Weapons of Mass destruction ? They never found any ! Like Iran has stopped production in 2003 ! Those people havent changed in 4,000 years and we ANT going to change them EVER .Has any one ever read the HISTORY of IRAN ? We will not last forever .We are weak very weak ..And we got Thompson who says we need more TROOPS sent around the world to other places …someone needs to tell him THERE IS NO MORE TO SEND ! They are over in IRAQ and NO one is joining and if there is a DRAFT kiss all your kids and granchildren goodbye ! Ask them what they want on their TOMB STONE ? Because you ANT going to see them any more and if you dont have grand-children now You will never have them … Becaus eits not possible ..All your kids will be dead all your future generations GONE …all because of The Bush Administration and The only one in ALL of America Brave enough to Make a Stand against him you arent voting for Dennis Kucinich …too bad …He is America’s Last and Final Hope ! At least I can go to the Grave in Peace …knowing I voted for him and in the Hope all your Generations make it another 200 hundred years or more ! Kucinich Americas Last Hope !
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:51 pm74 - Why no reponse from NORAD?
Righty logic is perfectly encapsulated by the Flying Spaghetti Monster people, who “prove” that global warming has been caused by the decline in numbers of pirates.
If something positive happens, Bush did it, and if something negative happens, he did not. If the information contradicts Bush’s statement, then the information is bad, and so on.
Freestyle causality, I guess you’d have to call it. Lame, no matter how it’s parsed.
December 4th, 2007 at 6:11 pm