FLASHBACK: Economists Predicted That A Prolonged U.S. Presence In Iraq Could Lead To A Recession
FLASHBACK: Economists Predicted That A Prolonged U.S. Presence In Iraq Could Lead To A Recession
In yesterday’s press briefing, a reporter asked White House Press Secretary Dana Perino about the tie between the current U.S. economy and the Iraq war. Perino quickly dismissed the reporter’s question, insisting that the U.S. economy has been “very strong” and adding that the money was necessary to “take the fight to the enemy” after 9/11. Watch it:
Oil prices are at approximately $88 a barrel, although they have dropped from the record high of $100 earlier this month. As Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz recently noted in Vanity Fair, “The soaring price of oil is clearly related to the Iraq war. The issue is not whether to blame the war for this but simply how much to blame it.”
Before the war, economists were predicting that oil prices at just $75 a barrel could potentially send the U.S. economy into a recession. Therefore, the current economic situation should not come as a complete shock to the Bush administration. A look at economists’ pre-war predictions:
“A war against Iraq could cost the United States hundreds of billions of dollars, play havoc with an already depressed domestic economy and tip the world into recession because of the adverse effect on oil prices, inflation and interest rates, an academic study [by William Nordhaus, Sterling professor of economics at Yale University] has warned.” [Independent, 11/16/02]
“If war with Iraq drags on longer than the few weeks or months most are predicting, corporate revenues will be flat for the coming year and will put the U.S. economy at risk of recession, according to a poll of chief financial officers.” [CBS MarketWatch, 3/20/03]
“If the conflict wears on or, worse, spreads, the economic consequences become very serious. Late last year, George Perry at the Brookings Institution ran some simulations and found that after taking into account a reasonable use of oil reserves, a cut in world oil production of just 6.5 percent a year would send the United States and the world into recession.” [Robert Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration, 10/2/02]
“Gerd Häusler, the IMF’s director of international capital markets, said that ‘purely from a financial markets perspective, a serious conflict with Iraq would not be a very healthy development.’ … Häusler said there could be a repeat of what happened in 1990 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, when there was a sharp rise in oil prices.” [World Bank, 9/02]
MoveOn has a petition here to tell Congress to “quickly pass a stimulus package” that helps mitigate this “Iraq recession.”
UPDATE: Martin at Scholars and Rogues has more.
Transcript:
QUESTION: Dana, how can the president give a great financial boost to help the ailing economy when it’s being held down by $9 billion a month to pay for the Iraq war? How is he going to really bring that together?
PERINO: Well, I don’t — you know, we’ve been at war, as you know, since September 11th, the day after September 11th, when the president decided we were going to take the fight to the enemy. And during the past several years, both in Afghanistan and Iraq, during those years that we’ve been at war, this economy has been very strong. We’ve had 52 consecutive months of job growth.
And fighting the war and making sure our troops have what they need is going to be imperative to the safety of this nation. The president does not apologize for spending money on national security.
Going forward, what the president wants to do in this short-term package is to make sure that we get enough money moving in the economy so that we can avoid the potential risks of a downturn.
QUESTION: I’m not saying apologize, but that is a fact that on your books, if you’re saying you have a checkbook, you’re writing out your checks for the $9 billion a month, and then you still have other things. You say you want to give incentives to businesses, financially, I guess, and tax relief to consumers. How do you balance those books, though…
PERINO: I think I would flip it around and say I think that members of Congress might be able to find some of their pet projects and their earmarks that they could eliminate, that could help with this package. We’re talking about, you know, 1 percent of GDP that’s going to be robust enough to be able to have an impact.
But the president is certainly not going to shortchange our troops. One of the most important things he can do is make sure that the economy stays strong, that it supports all Americans and it certainly supports the troops.
And it supports the economies overseas as well, in terms of if you look at places like Iraq, we’ve been able to help them over the past several years, as they’re getting their democracy under way, but their economy is starting to improve as well. And so we can start transferring over to the Iraqis more of that responsibility. And the Iraqis right now, I think today, are talking through their budget for 2009. And they’re moving forward in a way that we would want them to. And they were going to take up a lot more responsibility to pay for their own security and their roads and bridges and their schools, all the things that we pay for here.
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No shiz-nizzle, sher-lozzle.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:56 pm“A war against Iraq could cost the United States hundreds of billions of dollars, play havoc with an already depressed domestic economy and tip the world into recession because of the adverse effect on oil prices, inflation and interest rates…”
Yes, but it’s been great for the Bush family and friends. Isn’t struggling to find gas money really worth it if it makes the oil barrons more money.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:59 pm.
AND YET, HERE WE ARE…
.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pmJust one more year and Crawford gets it idiot back.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:02 pm’s
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:05 pmI’m shocked…. SHOCKED I TELL YOU!
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:07 pmTherefore, the current economic situation should not come as a complete shock to the Bush administration.
Of course it comes as a shock. When you don’t listen to anyone everything is a surprise.
The economy is strong only for the uber rich whom are taking taking taking. Everyone else is struggling.
MoveOn has a petition here to tell Congress to “quickly pass a stimulus package that helps those who need it the most and will spend it the fastest.â€
As for MoveOn’s statement, I don’t see how because people who get a few hundred bucks from the government to spend are going to spend it on heat, gas for their car, and food. This is not going to stimulate anything. At best, it will make shareholders of Exxon, et al, and some utilities happy. This will only help the average person make it through the winter. How about:
1. JOBS! No money, no spendy.
2. Jobs that actually pay enough to have discretionary spending.
3. Healthcare that makes wages competitive for companies to price their products on a world stage and give workers additional money to buy the stuff that keeps the economy afloat.
I’m no economist and even I can see this is needed.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:08 pmThe Iraq Recession. I do hope this sticks as the label.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 pmWho could have foreseen such a thing?
Bush’s legacy needs to be scraped off the sidewalk and dropped in a trash can. It’s starting to stink.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:11 pmDO any of you idiots know ANYTHING about the stock market? Obviously not! What’s going on now is called a C-O-R-R-E-C-T-I-O-N. Hate to tell you DOOM and GLOOM libs but this is NORMAL!! It happens and has ALWAYS happened and WILL continue to happen.
It’s pretty damn sick when good news for you cowards is when we have deaths in Iraq; the stock market makes a correction, or when we have a NATURAL calamity. Why can’t you be a part of the human race instead of living for DOOM and GLOOM??????
When the market was going UP, UP, UP the lib media and websites and liars like Olbermahn NEVER mentioned it! Why, because it was GOOD news and GOOD news is BAD news for you cut and run cowards!!
The really really BAD news for you wackos is that the market WILL rebound, probably within the next week or so and, as usual, your type will NOT mention it.
You all are SICK!!
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:13 pmToo bad bush has learned nothing in 7 years, like taking advice from successful, experienced people like Warren Buffet who three months ago said we were slidding into a recession. But, hey if bush had a brain he would quit selling America out everyday.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:16 pmJohn Kerry - move on over to your sympathetic conservative sites if you are so upset by the truth on this one.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:17 pm10,
Hey retard I could give a shit less what the markets are doing, I’m busy going through my sofa for gas money. You suck*ss putz.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:17 pmTroll John Kerry:
When Clinton took office, the Dow was around 3200. When Bush took over, it was over 10,000.
Now it’s under 12,000.
I won’t even go into the drop in real wages for most Americans over that time. You have enough trouble understanding simple concepts.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:19 pmThis from Yahoo:
“Dwindling U.S. funds in Iraq threaten fragile security” They must have that wrong the retard running this country says we have a vibrant economy, plenty of money, well I suppose as long as we have the Chinese to handle our debt, yeah thats a good plan.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:20 pmNotice how JK insinuates the markets to discussion of the economy. How telling is that?
I play the market and a correction is long overdue. This entry was about the economy on a whole not just the markets.
Let them eat cake, eh, jerkoff?
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:21 pmjohn kerry is just copy and paste troll……he made the exact same post on another thread…hit and run coward…..irrelivant.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:21 pmOK One more time. The economy or the welfare of the US means NOTHING to the bushco/Vulcan cabal. They have an agenda to change the world to their twisted view and thats it. Time is short and there is still much to do. Right now the action is in destroying options for the successor. Recession? Depression? Just new shocks to use to grab more wealth and power.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:22 pmYou all are SICK!!
Comment by John Kerry is a true American hero (I am just a snot nosed kid) — January 23, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Dude, I think your mom said you can play Guitar Hero III now!
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:23 pmRun along!
The term “correction” infers that there was something wrong in the beginning.
JK has been absent from early posts on the 473 days of missing emails from the bush administration and the 900 lies just recently discussed.
No need to thump your chest here jk if you are too chicken to defend your boys on earlier threads.
Thanks for playing though.
The Iraq Recession, brought to you by Bush.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:24 pmsomeone posted this earlier….there apparently were trolls before john kerry…..
“Any lack of confidence in the economic future or the basic strength of business in the United States is foolish.â€
—Herbert Hoover
November, 1929
Does this look like a correction?
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:25 pmStock Markets Plunge Worldwide
http://news.yahoo.com/ s/ ap/ 20080121/ ap_on_bi_ge/ world_markets;_ylt=AjNKVfqcz3sn4NmRijtcdj2s0NUE
John Kerry said
The market did all of the rebounding it possibly could yesterday when the Dow lost only 1.1% or whatever the figure was. There are NO positive economic indices that would signal great things in our economic future. Spin, spin, spin!
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm@ 10 - “this is NORMAL”
The 75bp rate cut yesterday was the largest rate cut since 1981, and the largest unscheduled rate move ever.
So I can only guess that you when you wrote “NORMAL” you meant “UNPRECEDENTED”, a mistake often made by total dickwads.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:29 pmHOLY MARKET BOOM BATMAN!!! ralph the wonder llama is dead on. Clinton’s presidency shows a steady rise in the stock market. Bush’ is stuck in the mud and now being swallowed whole.
incredible.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:30 pmThe Iraq Recession. I do hope this sticks as the label.
Comment by hellinabucket — January 23, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
I’ve been calling it the Bush recession.
I like your label, too.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:33 pmBush’s Surge and Splurge Recession
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:35 pmTroll, noun
definition: too stupid to get it
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:37 pmInvesting in infrastructure = long term payoff to cities, workers, economy.
Investing in bullets, DU shells, tanks and other military disposables = …
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:38 pmYou all are SICK!!
Comment by John Kerry — January 23, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Take a look in the mirror, freak.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm#10 When the market was going UP, UP, UP the lib media and websites and liars like Olbermahn NEVER mentioned it! Why, because it was GOOD news and GOOD news is BAD news for you cut and run cowards!!
Up, up, and up? You mean the stock market that has lost money for the last seven years, once inflation is accounted for?
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:39 pmJK, you’re losing it little guy, you should just shut up and listen instead of ranting. Your God Bush has tainted everything he has touched with a stinking brown stain and yet you get all worked up and start screaming like a hysterical teenager to defend him.
Bush is a loser. Bush has exposed you 25%ers, ripped the bullshit cover off of the hateful Rightwingers and in the end, accidently does some good. He can die knowing that his one success (albeit totally accidental) was to destroy the Republican Party.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:40 pmThe Surge and Splurge Recession sounds good as well.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:40 pmInvesting in bullets, DU shells, tanks and other military disposables = …
Money to Bush’s cronies, of course. Money out of our tax dollars and gifted and regifted to oil, defense, and nothing else (oh, except for truckloads to Iraq and the cronies there).
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:41 pmHe can die knowing that his one success (albeit totally accidental) was to destroy the Republican Party.
Careful, this is something I will celebrate for decades to come! :-) And it couldn’t have happened to (or by) a bigger dunce.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:42 pmSick, hold up let me get this straight #10; the majority of hard working Americans who must decide whether to spend their last dollars on food or gas every month because a fundamentally flawed system celebrites and bends over backward for the top 1% percent in this country and you call these people SICK. My friend, check yourself, we’re not talking big business or the wealthy, we’re talking about struggling citizens who this country is letting down, son, finish high school, then take your glasses off. It’s a big world out there, your Mommy or Daddy doesn’t have to rule all of it. Sick, you sucka.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:42 pm“Perino quickly dismissed the reporter’s question, insisting that the U.S. economy has been “very strong†and adding that the money was necessary to “take the fight to the enemy†after 9/11.”
——————————————–
Blondie Peroxide continues to prove that she is nothing more than a windup doll — mindlessly parroting the talking points with which she has been programmed. She’s even oblivious to the fact that nobody believes this crap anymore. The U.S. economy is NOT “very strong” — anybody in the workforce (or trying to get into the workforce) knows this. And although at one time a majority of Americans believed Iraq to be “the enemy” after 9/11, most now realize that Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with the terrorist attacks.
The White House beat has got to be a joke for real journalists these days.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:42 pmLBJ, goaded into Vietnam by the right and the usual democratic fear of “looking weak on foreign affairs”, borrowed heavily to fund the Vietnam War, a practice continued by Nixon. The bills coming due in Carter’s term led to that period of economic malaise.
Borrowing heavily for a long war is ALWAYS a bad idea, economically, regardless of the merits of the war. And remember, both Vietnam and Iraq have dragged on significantly longer than WWII, which was itself a drag on the New Deal-fueled recovery from the Great Depression.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:43 pmYou all are SICK!!
Comment by John Kerry
No JK, you are the sick one. The stock market is only one component of a healthy economy and is by far not the most important component. The most important components are salary stagnation, lack of jobs, price of consumer goods, the value of the dollar, consumer and governmental debt and last but not least, the cost of simply surviving. All those indicators are in the sh!thouse and is way more telling than the stock market. You rightards won’t admit we are in a recession until unemployment is in the teens and there are no longer any middle class citizens in this country (which is what the Rightards would love to have happen). Also, stock market “corrections” have severe economic impacts on the average citizen. I was once in the stock market and I saw an investment of $600,000 dwindle to a little more than $300,000. That had a very large impact on my net worth and I am no longer in the stock market because of it. Unfortunately many middle class American’s retirement funds are invested in the stock market and when it crashes, they are going to be in hurt-city.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:43 pmYou are so correct RU. Front page news in the Chicago Tribune show a 100 year old water main that broke. It collapsed the whole street.
I liken Bush’s policies to an egg that has this hard exterior but is rotten inside. Now the shell has cracked and the whole world can see how damaged it is inside.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:45 pmThe inevitable “bite” of a recession has finally taken a chunk of the economy.
Our economy has been drained by a group of schisters on Wall St who would sell out on their mothers and a few no contract leeches that suck on the teat of the war machine. The fast buck was all too tempting.
America will get what it deserves. And the poor and less fortunate will pay the biggest price once again.
And America still holds it head high thinking george w Bush will hold it all together.
And John Edwards may have been shut out, but his mesage will ring true for months to come.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:45 pmThe bills coming due in Carter’s term led to that period of economic malaise.
Comment by PeterW
And, of course, Carter was held responsible for the economic down-turn.
That’s what the rightards are hoping for. They hope the recession holds off until a Democrat is in the White House and then they can blame it on the Democratic President.
The mantra of the right….Avoid taking responsibility at all costs”.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:46 pmGood answer Ms Joanne!!
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:46 pmThe Iraq Recession. I do hope this sticks as the label.
Comment by hellinabucket — January 23, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
I’d like to be there with you. Problem is, as horrible as economic downturns are, I’d never want to conflate them with the horrors of war. I’d take a recession today if it meant not one more soldier died in Iraq.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:47 pmAnd remember, both Vietnam and Iraq have dragged on significantly longer than WWII, which was itself a drag on the New Deal-fueled recovery from the Great Depression.
Comment by PeterW — January 23, 2008 @ 2:43 pm
Good points above, Peter, and this one I quoted makes me wonder how big a factor the borrowing was in prolonging those conflicts. I wonder how much pressure there would be on the leaders to wrap up the military campaigns if we had to pay for them as we went, in higher taxes.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:48 pmI’ve been calling it the Bush recession.
I like your label, too.
Comment by Frosty Cupcake
I vote for the Bush Recession since it has to do with a lot of other decisions made by this Administration than the Iraq occupation. And the main one was Greenspan and the Bush Administration creating the sub-prime mortgage mess.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:51 pmDana Perino about the tie between the current U.S. economy and the Iraq war. Perino quickly dismissed the reporter’s question, insisting that the U.S. economy has been “very strongâ€
Very telling that Barbie Perino is talking about a so-called strong economy in the past tense.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:52 pm#44 That’s what the rightards are hoping for. They hope the recession holds off until a Democrat is in the White House and then they can blame it on the Democratic President.
It’s not likely they’ll get their wish. I suspect when the numbers come out and are revised, it’ll turn out we’ve been in a recession for 3-6 months already.
They’ll try to blame it on the Dem Congress, but I doubt it’ll stick.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:53 pmBut….but…it’s been good for the Carlysle Group.
And the “haves” and “have mores.”
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:54 pmThe Iraq Recession. I do hope this sticks as the label.
Comment by hellinabucket — January 23, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
I’d like to be there with you. Problem is, as horrible as economic downturns are, I’d never want to conflate them with the horrors of war. I’d take a recession today if it meant not one more soldier died in Iraq.
Comment by Dumb_Fox — January 23, 2008 @ 2:47 pm
actually its about time Americans have been asked to sacrifce for this war. Aside from having our rights taken from us, we have never been asked to contribute to this war and I believe it is one of the reasons why the war drags on. If the recession reminds people that there is an UNNECESSARY war going on, and one of the reasons we are in recession is because of the war, then the Iraq Recession moniker is good enough for me.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:54 pmThis recession must be put in Bush’s legacy account. The borrow and bomb occupation of Iraq and tax policies favoring the wealthy are primary causes of the current (and, unfortunately, future) economic woes of this country. We must make sure that this recession remains in Bush’s hands. That’s why I like the label “Surge and Splurge Recession”.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:55 pmIt’s not likely they’ll get their wish. I suspect when the numbers come out and are revised, it’ll turn out we’ve been in a recession for 3-6 months already.
They’ll try to blame it on the Dem Congress, but I doubt it’ll stick.
Comment by PeterW — January 23, 2008 @ 2:53 pm
When have the facts mattered to the Republicans? The Repubs will ignore the “R-word” until a Dem is in the WH and then, poof, they will all of a sudden see we are in a recession and will blame the dems
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:56 pmWhen have the facts mattered to the Republicans?
They don’t. But they will matter to independents and conservative Dems, and people who might vote R for social issues.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:57 pmI vote for the Bush Recession
Comment by bilbobaggins — January 23, 2008 @ 2:51 pm
Bush Recession II
On second thought, if you count all Bush ( Daddy and Junior ) recessions this would be Bush Recession III
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:58 pmMoreover, denying the disaster that’s painfully obvious to everyone has been really bad for Republican approval ratings: witness Katrina.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:59 pmJohn McCain (R-Arizona) = “recession” from Arizona?
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:00 pmShrubs Flub.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:01 pmEight years of living dangerously.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:03 pmJohn McCain (R-Arizona) = “recession†from Arizona?
Comment by PatrioticLiberalChristian — January 23, 2008 @ 3:00 pm
good one. You should send that in to the DNC so they can make a commercial out of it.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:04 pmsheesh, plunger is on a cut & paste binge again.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:11 pmLong cut and pastes, all of it offtopic
Later, this thread is too hard to follow now.
Is there any way to Ignore this plunger guy.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:11 pmThis is a great post by Think Progress. The Democrats have merge these issues together (Iraq and the economy), and point out to the people that the economy suffering is directly connected to staying in the Iraq War endlessly. The Iraq War is directly connected to soaring oil prices. The Iraq War is directly connected to our enormous budget deficits.
If people think Iraq exists in a bubble, and that it doesn’t affect their lives in any way, they won’t really care if it goes on and on.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:13 pmBush shortchanged our troops when he sent them to Iraq to fight his illegal war based on lies.
One of the proposed stimulus would be to give a one time rebate of $800 to singles and $1600.00 to couples. That isn’t going to do anything to stimulate our economy. We need good paying jobs in this country to stimulate the economy. Bring our jobs home and then people will have money to spend. The only businesses that will benefit by this measly consumer rebate will be the credit cards and the food industry.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:13 pmWhen the market was going UP, UP, UP the lib media and websites and liars like Olbermahn NEVER mentioned it! Why, because it was GOOD news and GOOD news is BAD news for you cut and run cowards!!
Comment by John Kerry — January 23, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Apparently you haven’t been watching the stock market for the last 7 years. It hasn’t been going up, up, up since GWB took office. Currently it’s 11% higher then it was 7 years ago. It hasn’t been keeping up with inflation at that rate. A correction comes when people feel the market is overvalued. When a slump in the stock market comes at a time when the stock market is low, that’s not a correction, that’s a shitting indicator for the stock market. China can call this a correction, their market doubled last year. The U.S. is underperforming and has been for 7 years. It is you who has no idea of how the stock market works, or in this case, does not work.
p.s. the stock market is also a very poor indicator of how the U.S. economy is going. Look at the value of your $, your annual deficits, your total debt, your debt/GDP%, your trade deficit. Look at all of the indicators and you’ll see a very unhealthy environment in the U.S. Other markets will tumble as well as a result of the U.S. mismanagement but at least they were performing well prior to this… they can afford it. Their $ has some value. You can’t say the same but you probably have a negative net worth so a plunging $ is actually good for you!
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:14 pmThe Iraq Recession. I do hope this sticks as the label.
Comment by hellinabucket — January 23, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Keep saying it and post it everywhere and by election time, the candidates will be saying it, too. Ah, the beauty of the Internet(s), those magical, interconnecting tubes.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:18 pmgreat posts plunger…..keep em comin.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:22 pmgreat posts plunger…..keep em comin.
Comment by Fred — January 23, 2008 @ 3:22 pm
Thanks a bunch, Fred. Now that you’ve got your new ISP it’s suddenly OK for plunger to spam every thread on TP.
Why don’t you help him set up his own blog, instead?
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:24 pmJust one more year and Paraguay gets a very unpopular war criminal.
Hope they nab him before he flees the country.
Bush/Cheney
Hague Trials ‘09
Buck Fush
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:31 pmgreat posts plunger…..keep em comin.
Comment by Fred — January 23, 2008 @ 3:22 pm
Thanks a bunch, Fred. Now that you’ve got your new ISP it’s suddenly OK for plunger to spam every thread on TP.
Why don’t you help him set up his own blog, instead?
Comment by gummitch
I tried to have a discussion about this and was shut down by katy and some of the other regulars……I did what I had to do to survive….take it up with those who made the decision…it was not me.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:36 pmI love seeing the rantings of John Kerry. He seems to have some real issues intellectually, sexually (makes them very hostile until they accept being gay), and emotionally.
1. This is not a correction. A correction comes when there has been an over valuation of stock. Usually this is caused by overbuying bidding up the price of stocks.
2. A correction usually calms down an overheated market. Rarely will a correction spread world wide.
3. This is a global downturn. It occurs because of specific weaknesses in the impacted economy. In this case, President Bush has created excessive current account debts fueled by foreign loans. You cannot indefinitely import more than you export. Bush further relied upon consumer spending to shore up the economy after the tech bubble burst. Again, this cannot be a long term economic solution. Third taxcuts failed to stimulate the economy since they were geared to wealthy taxpayers who would not convert this into spending and corporations who maintained very low levels of employing additional investments capital or profits. Fourth, debt problems are becoming worse because of the off book deficits to pay for the war. Fifth, deregulation of the mortgage market and encouragement of home buying by this administration to maintain consumer spending exacerbated the problem. We see an international downturn because the rest of the world now realizes that the US economy is in weak condition. Their holding of US debt and a falling dollar impacts the value of investments in the US.
Yes, Mr. Kerry, I do understand the stock market. Unfortunately, you do not.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:37 pmReply to #10, John Kerry: As usual you swallow the kool aid and make excuses for this screwed up administration. This CORRECTION that you speak of wasn’t predicted, it was caused. Caused by that bone head moma’s boy you guys love to love so much. That idiot didn’t have a clue when he took office and still doesn’t to this day. This idea of small government is to create the largest increase of government in history (Dept of Home Land Security). Also he spied on the American people illegally, tortured prisoners, stood by during Katrina and told Brownie the was “Doing a heck of a job”. It doesn’t take a lead weight to fall on me to figure out this idiot couldn’t run a carwash, not to mention a country.
Yet fools like you just go charging straight ahead without thinking, blindly following him off a cliff. When will you wake up and realize that a monkey couldn’t screw things up any worst if he made decisions by throwing a dart at a board full of bad ideas. I understand party loyality, but come on man, what planet have you been living on for the last 7 years? Pluto? Regardless of what you think, history doesn’t lie and it will show this guy is the worst leader we’ve ever had. If he’s not you can eat your hat.
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:55 pmJust another episode of : The Triumph of the Idiot Chimp! An extended criminal war designed to crash the economy.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:07 pmBut But But Wolfowitz said Iraq was floating on oil and that this Freedom Operation/Democracy experiment / rebuilding of Iraqs infrastructure would pay for itself!!
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:15 pmAren’t the underlying causes of the slowdown problems in the housing and credit markets? We had high oil prices during the last quarter, too, when growth was 3.9%, so I’m not sure I buy the link between the war and the slowdown/recession.
Also, I understand using tax rebates as a form of relief, but can someone make a case for rebates as an overall economic stimulant?
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:22 pmDid prolonged U.S. presence in Iraq lead us into a recession?
http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1619
.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:35 pmTake out a Quarter or a Dime and look at it’s edge. That coppery, penny like color first appeared in 1964. Before that, these coins were all silver. Where did all that silver go???? Why to finance the Viet Nam War of course.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:01 pmIn February 2003, Rupert Murdoch (”Murdoch the Malefactor”) expressed his support for the then-pending invasion of Iraq and stressed the potential economic benefits of such action. “The greatest thing to come of this to the world economy, if you could put it that way, would be $20 a barrel for oil,” he told The Bulletin, an Australian magazine, in a February 12, 2003, interview.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:20 pmDumb Question: Isn’t Ronald Reagan, the patron saint of the neocons, credited with ending the cold war through a process of forcing the USSR to spend more on the military than it could afford ?
So if Reagan could destroy the Soviet economy through forcing huge payments for the military, why wouldn’t the same strategy work on the USA economy ?
Oh Wait ……It did. That Osama is a tricky one.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:20 pm“No one could have anticipated . . .”
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:02 pma. the insurgency
b. the dikes would break
c. the recession
d. all of the above
Obviously, those economists who predicted such an outcome were not appointed by the Dumbya…
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:10 pmThose tax breaks really look like Ancient Rome Emperor’s policy, when the people was discontent they just poured money to every Rome´s household.
January 24th, 2008 at 8:43 am