Economists increasingly think recession is likely.
By on Jan 29th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Economists increasingly think recession is likely.
“There is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. economy will sink into recession this year, but any downturn will likely be short and shallow,” according to a survey of economists released by USA Today. “In October, the economists said there was a 30% chance of recession, according to the median answer, with only 6% of those surveyed saying the odds of a recession were greater than 50%. This month, nearly 1-in-3 put the odds at greater than 50%.”
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I thought we were already in a recession and heading toward a depression????These know it alls know very little. The people have known that we are in a recession for some time now.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:08 pmBeen in a recession for about 3 months now. Guess is depends on who you ask.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:08 pmForTruth:
As soon as the Haves have more again, Bush recession solved!
January 29th, 2008 at 1:11 pmmeanwhile the economy goes into the toilet while these idiots discuss whether it’s coming or is already here.
kinda like discussing whether the train is coming to the woman who is tied to the tracks.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:15 pmDARN YOU BILL CLINTON!!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 1:15 pmOr, is this recession Jimmy Carter’s fault?
January 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pmMakes perfect sense to me…Bush, his moron administration and his moronic policies have screwed up our military, our reputation to the rest of the world, our Judicial system and darn near everything else that he can screw up – no reason why the American economy should be exempt. It’s a full sweep!
January 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pmWaiting for all the Hillary bashers to blame the Clintons.
Sigh………
January 29th, 2008 at 1:21 pmI blame the poor. If they weren’t poor, they wouldn’t be poor.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:25 pmGeorge Bush: He’s not the Decider — he’s the DESTROYER.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:26 pmWaiting for all the Hillary bashers to blame the Clintons.
Sigh………
Comment by delafield
They are too slow today. They must be suffering from a moral hangover after spending last evening cheering Bush’s long litany of half-truth’s, lies by omission, and outright lies.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:26 pmOr, is this recession Jimmy Carter’s fault?
Comment by shoeless — January 29, 2008 @ 1:16 pm
Must be Washington’s fault. After all, it is his picture on the dollar.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:27 pmComment by Dr. Matt — January 29, 2008 @ 1:27 pm
Don’t forget martians.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pmBig off topic:
Shoeless, your response about overestimating good golly being a minus one, was brilliant and hilarious!!!
Thanks for that laugh.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pmOne important point here is that no one knows the future! No One!
A recession is defined by six months when Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP or the economy’s total output of final goods and services) declines. It is the nature of the data that we won’t know until after it begins that there is a recession. The National Bureau of Econcomic Research is charged with designating the official beginnings and ends of recessions.
This is a two fer for President Dinkledorf! The second recession for his presidency! Way to go! Thank you Dinkledorf for making it possible to have a permanent Democratic majority!
January 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pmI blame the poor. If they weren’t poor, they wouldn’t be poor.
Comment by toasterhead
Bush has a plan to end the recession based on Nancy Reagan’s program, which ended the use of illegal drugs. It’s called, “Just Get A Job”.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:30 pmTruth be known inflation and recession has been around for month’s…Our grocery cost’s along with services has increased at an alarming rate.,Gas prices were part of it….
The have it all and the have almost all they want don’t shop, thy hire it…Many have their spouses do the shopping with a never ending bank account…They can’t and won’t relate to the working class and poor…Designer clothing, gourmet food, five star lodging along with two or more home’s does not meet on a level with the construction worker, single mother working 2 job’s to feed her kid’s or the average family with 2,5 kid’s both working to pay a mortgage..Most of the rich don’t even pay taxe’s…They pay their tax attorney’s huge amount’s not to..Huge corporation’s are dodging taxe’s all together by moving their mailing address to the Camon Island’s.. The poor and middle class are being used up…..We need realety based thinker’s not deep pocket polatician’s…..Blessings
January 29th, 2008 at 1:31 pmMost economists are blinded by ideology. I put very little stock in what they say. The odds are better than 50/50 that we are already in a recession, and close to 100 percent that one will occur soon if it isn’t happening already.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:32 pmWe are in a recession. Everyone knows it except the experts.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:34 pmChatter about the technical definition of a recession is meaningless. Anyone in the bottom half is already experiencing economic hardship due to declining purchasing power. Food, energy, and health care are all undergoing inflation at a much higher rate than the stated CPI, which is based on a fraudulent, politically motivated, method of calculation.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:35 pmSomeone tell these negative Nelly moonbats that Larry Kudlow says this is a Goldilocks economy and everything is gonna be just fine.
-GSD
January 29th, 2008 at 1:36 pmLarry Kudlow must be back on the pipe. Put it down, Larry. Put it down!
January 29th, 2008 at 1:38 pmWhat the media did on the runup to the Iraq war the media and the economic gurus are doing again.
Lie and obfuscate for the the power elite.
-GSD
In short order we’ll be told that the disaster in the economy is all the fault of the poor and underprivileged.
The finger of blame never points upward.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:39 pmIf they weren’t poor, they wouldn’t be poor.
Comment by toasterhead
Bad decisions, according to squeegee, is what makes you poor.
I always wonder about 7 y/o Thai prostitutes’ lack of financial certainty.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:41 pmSomeone tell these negative Nelly moonbats that Larry Kudlow says this is a Goldilocks economy and everything is gonna be just fine.
-GSD
Comment by GSD — January 29, 2008 @ 1:36 pm
In order to prevent a (hypothetical) recession, we must invade Leprechaunia. The war cost will be covered with their gold cauldrons. They’re somewhat North, East, West and South of Dublin.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:42 pmShoeless, your response about overestimating good golly being a minus one, was brilliant and hilarious!!!
Thanks for that laugh.
Comment by Juan C.
That poor fool makes a target as big as a barn, and his mind moves about as fast.
It’s too bad reproduction doesn’t take any more thought process than that possessed by a bacterium. If it did, we wouldn’t be plagued with these 25% deadender Bushbots.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:44 pmI think the answer to recession is to switch to chocolate money.
Hey, it might be unhelpful, but is gonna be a sweet time.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:48 pmBut, but, I’m getting a check for 600 bucks…
January 29th, 2008 at 1:49 pmI think the answer to recession is to switch to chocolate money.
Hey, it might be unhelpful, but is gonna be a sweet time.
Comment by Juan C. — January 29, 2008 @ 1:48 pm
I, too, am in favor of this proposal to switch to cocoadollars.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:51 pmIt is so dumb to go around calculating the odds of a recession. Economic cycles come and go. As far as i’m concerned this country is already in a recession. So many jobs have been outsourced and people keep running up their credit. Everybody and their mother is maxed out up to their noses. We have an EVIL president destroying the middle class and conducting a criminal war overseas killing innocent people mothers children and making a profit out if it. Consequently real bad things will happen to this evil nation. America is cursed. The dollar is cursed! A recession is a walk through the park compared to what’s coming!
January 29th, 2008 at 1:52 pmI’m kookoo for coco dollars.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:55 pmBut, but, I’m getting a check for 600 bucks…
Comment by ForTruth
I want mine in Euros.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:57 pmHere’s an excerpt from a Newsweek interview with Robert Reich:
“…several managing directors on the Street, whose opinions I trust, have said to me that the chances for a depression are 20 percent. That matches my sense. In other words, it’s still low, but 20 percent is nonetheless far higher a probability than anyone should be comfortable with. Even absent a depression, it seems likely that the coming recession will be deeper than the last several.”
Reich used to be Clinton’s Secretary of Labor, but he doesn’t seem to be too crazy about Clinton these days.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:01 pmRecession?
Gold is at $900 PLUS
Oil at $90 =/- a few
Gas at $3/gal =/- pennies
Silver at $15 plus
But most importantly the people of this nation are stupid.
You have allowed these mealy mouth good old boys to railroad you. They promised you hope and gave you nothing. You will never be where they are no matter what you do and yet you keep thinking this is some kind of “democratic” process.
Get a clue. As much as I too will vote today, and for Obama, it will mean nothing. Remember, he wants to EXPAND the military by 100K troops.
When AMericans quit romanticing the warriors and their wars then maybe we’ll have some money to deal with the broken parts of government. Until then just expect more of the same. They are fighting for your freedom……….uh huh.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:01 pmI’m kookoo for coco dollars.
Comment by shoeless — January 29, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
This discussion does have me wondering about the feasibility of backing a currency wiith an agricultural commodity such as cocoa or coffee or something. I mean, the dollar right now is backed by petroleum. How hard would it be to move it to hard winter wheat? Perhaps a virtual basket of commodities, so that the currency is not dependent solely on one product.
This could work in theory, but I don’t know the specifics. Someone get Amartya Sen on the line, stat!
January 29th, 2008 at 2:01 pmI, too, am in favor of this proposal to switch to cocoadollars.
Comment by toasterhead
Imagine:
-Hey, spare me some cash.
-Ok, but you have to lick it from my pockets.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:03 pmI hear Chimpy’s establishing the Department of Bootstraps for us all to pull ourselves up with.
*eyeroll*
January 29th, 2008 at 2:09 pmThis discussion does have me wondering about the feasibility of backing a currency wiith an agricultural commodity such as cocoa or coffee or something.
Comment by toasterhead
Can we make it decaf? I don’t want to be up all night worrying about my investiments.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:09 pmBacking the dollar with grain?
hurrhmm..
January 29th, 2008 at 2:13 pmEnd the deficit, bring down the debt, repeal the tax cuts, get out of Iraq!!
January 29th, 2008 at 2:16 pm“There is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. economy will sink into recession this year”
Wanna bet!
Bush doesn’t believe it. He says the economy is as sound as a dollar.
Hey!?! Wait a minute.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:16 pmBacking the dollar with grain?
hurrhmm..
Comment by Xisithrus — January 29, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Oil is finite. Gold is finite. Agriculture will be around for as long as humans are on this planet. Perhaps backing the dollar with something dependant on the environment will make us more keen on preserving the environment.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:18 pmPerhaps backing the dollar with something dependant on the environment will make us more keen on preserving the environment.
Comment by toasterhead
How’s about we back the dollar with solar collectors, windmills, and hydrogen powered cars.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:38 pmQuick and Dirty Research: Look a the Dow, NAsDAQ, and SP 500 for the 6 months. For the last 4 to 5 months they have been dropping fairly sharply. 6 months of contraction equals recession.
Although the Dow is certainly NOT the true measure of the economy, the insinuation seems to be there – looks like we’re in a recession which will be officially declared within the next 2 months.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:45 pmEnd the drug war. Get out of Iraq. Eliminate corporate tax havens. Eliminate the cap on SS payments.
Problem solved.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:51 pmFour months ago it was also split 50-50 – personally, I don’t think that there’s been “increasing” belief that we’re heading for a recession.
And a caveat here – as MapleStreet points out we’re technically already in a recession, as two quarters of negative growth is the definition of such.
How bad it will actually be is another question. Dollar’s weak, economy slow. But for now I’m going to assume that (looking back at past administrations’ effects) once the Democrats win the White House back we’ll see an upturn.
Unless of course Bush has done a deal with the Saudis to bump oil prices up, that’d hurt the economy. If it happens at all, look for a spike in oil prices after mid-year to boost Republican chances in the elections….
January 29th, 2008 at 2:51 pmHow’s about we back the dollar with solar collectors, windmills, and hydrogen powered cars.
Comment by shoeless — January 29, 2008 @ 2:38 pm
Possible. Maybe not the cars so much, but by electricity generated from alternative energy.
January 29th, 2008 at 3:16 pmHow’s about we back the dollar with solar collectors, windmills, and hydrogen powered cars.
Comment by shoeless — January 29, 2008 @ 2:38 pm
Possible. Maybe not the cars so much, but by electricity generated from alternative energy.
Comment by toasterhead
We’ll sell hydrogen powered cars, and the hydrogen to power them.
Sunlight to Fuel Hydrogen Future
January 29th, 2008 at 3:39 pmWe’ll sell hydrogen powered cars, and the hydrogen to power them.
Sunlight to Fuel Hydrogen Future
Comment by shoeless — January 29, 2008 @ 3:39 pm
Ok now that’s seriously cool. I’ve been down on hydrogen in the past because we had to use fossil fuels to produce it, but if this technology is really viable I will be much more of a supporter. Thank you!
January 29th, 2008 at 3:41 pm#47 Ranting Tommy, you’ve posted some over the top rants in the past, but this time you have succinctly listed four of the best things this country could do to help itself. Kudos.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:00 pmWe will have a recession. Of course, NBR will only call the recession in retrospect since it is a trailing indicator. However, we need to rethink the metrics that we use as an indicator of the health of our nation’s economy.
1. We have seen a creeping recession on a class by class basis. Out sourcing of US jobs and the decline of our manufacturing base claimed the standard of living for displaced workers.
2. Our failure to invest in new technologies and products for manufacture in the US has decreased our competitiveness with other countries. Traditionally, a nation expects to see mature products and technologies migrate to other manufacturers. However, the nation maintains its vitality through creating new products and markets that justify the higher wages demanded in successful, mature economies.
3. Multinational companies will seek profit only without regard to the impact upon its nation of origin. This will inevitably result in a conflict of the company’s short sighted and short term interest versus the long term well being of the nation.
4. These factors have contributed to increased income disparity. Broad term measures of economic growth no longer equate to the overall economy. In particular, GDP can grow due to paper profits (speculation) and reduced costs while the long term strength of the economy is sapped.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:06 pmWe’ll sell hydrogen powered cars, and the hydrogen to power them.
Sunlight to Fuel Hydrogen Future
Comment by shoeless — January 29, 2008 @ 3:39 pm
Ok now that’s seriously cool. I’ve been down on hydrogen in the past because we had to use fossil fuels to produce it, but if this technology is really viable I will be much more of a supporter. Thank you!
Comment by toasterhead
The best part is that water and sunlight are used to produce the hydrogen, and the only byproduct is oxygen. When the hydogen is burned, the only byproduct is water!
January 29th, 2008 at 4:11 pmJMOHR,
In a word, greed, is the problem.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm