Did Immigration Cost Romney Florida?
Our guest bloggers is Henry Fernandez, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
Did immigration Cost Romney Florida? Sure looks like it.
On Florida’s airwaves all week, Romney delivered strong punitive deport-them-all rhetoric. He even highlighted the endorsement of anti-immigrant zealot Kris Kobach. And Floridians heard him loud and clear.
Exit polling showed that those Republican voters who wanted the undocumented deported en masse went overwhelmingly for Romney. This is not surprising since McCain is a godfather of the failed Senate comprehensive immigration grand bargain, which would have put 12 million undocumented immigrants on a long path to citizenship if they had no criminal record, paid a fine and met other high standards.
But here was Romney’s problem — most Florida Republicans did not support his deport-only strategy. Fifty-eight percent preferred either a path to citizenship or a temporary worker program. McCain had a 22 point lead with path to citizenship voters and a 7 point lead with those supporting a temporary worker program.
And what about Latinos, the Republican holy grail in Florida, and the group most likely to be supportive of comprehensive immigration reform? McCain won them going away. He beat Romney by 45 points among Cubans and 32 points among “other Hispanics.” In fact, if not for the Latino vote, McCain would have lost to Romney.
And this despite being the son of a Mexican immigrant.
Are conservatives getting the message? As David Brooks said in today’s New York Times: “Can we please stop pretending that immigration is a good issue for Republicans? The restrictionist side can’t even produce a victory for their man in a Republican primary.”
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Florida has many immigrants, so naturally a xenophobic message isn’t going to work well there. The same is true of the southern border states (TX,NM,AZ,CA). But the anti-immigrant message will work for the GOP in the heartland. In Minnesota, where I live, the Republican base is terrified of illegal immigrants, precisely because there are so few there (ca. 0.5%, or 1 in 200 residents). It is always easier to make someone you don’t know into a bogeyman. This is also why gay-baiting is a dying issue, as ever more people find out that someone they like is gay.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:05 pm“Can we please stop pretending that immigration is a good issue for Republicans? The restrictionist side can’t even produce a victory for their man in a Republican primary.â€
Maybe the Republicans can try talking and acting like human beings. They can hire consultants to tell them how.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:08 pmWho would’ve thought that courting the rabid xenophobe vote would backfire?
January 30th, 2008 at 3:16 pmMittens Rummney.
A lot like our former Sec/Def, but richer.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:21 pm“Did Immigration Cost Romney Florida?”
Does the Pope sh*t in the woods?
January 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pmMaybe the Republicans can try talking and acting like human beings. They can hire consultants to tell them how.
Comment by Wayne A. Schneider — January 30, 2008 @ 3:08 pm
Gotta love a good zinger.
Okay, a great zinger.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pmActually, immigration IS a good issue for the GOP — for GOP candidates running for office in North Dakota. For states like Florida, California, and Texas, any candidate from any party who takes a “deport ‘em all” position isn’t going to do well.
Poor Mitt. He’s already had to reinvent himself to get elected governor in Massachusetts, had to reinvent himself again to get on the national GOP stage, and now it looks like he’s going to have to create a third persona to present to large border states.
Next to Romney, McCain almost looks genuine. At least, this is how it’s starting to appear to voters.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:26 pmRummney:
January 30th, 2008 at 3:35 pm-Born to Incorporate
-Born to cut jobs
-Born to worship profits
Obama:
-Born to cooperate
-Born to create jobs
-Born to worship prophets
His special golden holy underwear got stained in Florida.
Thinking of made up religions, maybe I should make one up also, I like Tacos and my stomach is calling for one, so maybe God is really a Taco. Mmmmm, Tacos, yummy.
Buck Fush
January 30th, 2008 at 3:37 pmWas it Fmr. Gov. Romney’s stance on immigration, or his numerous flip-flops?
I’d say “both.”
Now, all we have to do is remind all the right-whiners about their 2000 campaign against Sen. McCain (If Sen. McCain was too old to be President in 2000, he’s WAY too old now!) and there’ll be no way another Republican will be elected President in 2008!!!
January 30th, 2008 at 3:43 pmHow would you like to see our government handle illegal immigration?
http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1662
.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:48 pmFlorida, being a state that is heavily supported by the tourist industry, realizes that if every undocumented worker left their jobs today, the state would pretty much come to a grinding, screeching halt. And the tourist industry would collapse. They would not have any workers to wash dishes in the restaurants and clean rooms in the hotels.
The states that are the most virulently anti-immigrant are states with very few immigrants living there. States like Florida, California and New York (all heavily dependent on immigrant labor) are much more realistic about what we need to do to fix the problem.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:55 pmThanks, Ralph. I’ve long suspected that this was their weakest point.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:08 pmThe “divide-and-push-hot-buttons” strategy coming home to roost? Romney hoist by his own (phoney) petard? We should have deported George Romney maybe?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:14 pmNaaa. I think it was Romney’s “Who Let The Dogs Out” video with those kids.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:18 pmkindness ~ That was pretty goddamn hysterical, white bread Mitt trying to ‘do’ some black culture something or another…???
January 30th, 2008 at 4:47 pmNext to Romney, McCain almost looks genuine. At least, this is how it’s starting to appear to voters.
Comment by missmolly — January 30, 2008 @ 3:26 pm
What is that line about once you can fake sincerity, the rest is easy? ;)
I spent a lot of time on another thread talking about how conservatism is dead. Lots of conservatives say nominating McCain will be the death of the Republicans. I say it is a chance at rebirth.
THE reason McCain is so hated by far righties is his immigration stance (there are other reasons, but none so visceral). His compromise bill with Kennedy failed; he said the lesson he took from that was border security FIRST, then path to citizenship. That seems reasonable to me, and apparently appeals to Florida hispanic voters as well.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:57 pmMcCain was never that popular with conservative Republicans. He opposed Bush’s tax cuts and lots of other questionable federal spending….bread and butter to the Big corporations.
McCain’s strength has always been with the independents….and it is the independents who will decide the presidency.
Of course, the other candidate very popular with independents is Obama.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:52 pmWillard is not an American citizen… and ought not be allowed to run at all.
Those polygamist families from the Utah territory fled to Mexico ILLEGALLY (Mexico did not allow polygamy either). They were stripped of the basic rights of citizenship… including the right to hold office!!! Then they sneaked back over the border with no checking when Mexico got too hot.
Just because their skin was white, people assume they were legal. If they’d been brown they wouldn’t have been allowed to sneak back in, and they’d have had to face questions about citizenship.
Willard was born in Mexico. Unless his parents were US citizens, he is not a US citizen. They weren’t.
Damned Republicans are blinded by the white. Or the wealth.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:49 pmPretty bad if Bobo Brooks can figure it out and the Greasy Old Preverts can’t.
What a bunch of morons.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:08 amCaption :
Nice shirt, Flitt.
A∞Ω
January 31st, 2008 at 3:10 am