Rove Claims ‘A Lot Of Economists’ Think The Stimulus Package Is ‘Retarding The Day Of Growth’
Rove Claims ‘A Lot Of Economists’ Think The Stimulus Package Is ‘Retarding The Day Of Growth’
Ever since the latest jobs report showed that fewer jobs were lost in July than expected, conservatives have been scrambling to claim that the slowing economic freefall has nothing to do with the economic stimulus package. Today, Karl Rove appeared on Fox News and claimed that “a lot of economists” think that the stimulus is actually “retarding” economic growth:
[T]hat’s what a lot of economists are saying. Our stimulus package is retarding the day of growth not accelerating the day of growth.
Watch it:
Actually, economists participating in the latest monthly Bloomberg News survey said that “recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has begun as President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus — derided as insufficient and budget-busting months ago — takes effect“:
The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median of 53 forecasts in the monthly Bloomberg News survey. Analysts lifted their estimate for the third quarter by 1.2 percentage points compared with July, the biggest such boost in surveys dating from May 2003.
Analysts say that the stimulus added at least 1 percentage point to economic growth in the second quarter of this year (though the economy still contracted). “The signs of the stimulus are there,” said Allen L. Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics. “Government — federal, state and local — is helping take the economy from recession to recovery. I think it’s the primary contributor.”
Transcript:
ROVE: Well, I think economists are saying that the recession appears to be on the edge of being over, but we’re gonna have shaky retail sales and we’re gonna have unemployment persist into next year, we’re gonna have unemployment continue to go up. So it’s not going to feel like good economic times — and we aren’t. It just simply means that we’ve stopped declining. We’re plateuing, we may be able to start growing a little bit.
I thought it was interesting, though, notice that the headline in the Wall Street Journal this morning is about growth in Europe, and Germany, and France. Remember when president Obama went to the G8 and said ‘you oughta try you oughta pass a stimulus package like we did?’ And both of them said forget it. Well, their economies are recovering faster than our economy is. And that’s what a lot of economists are saying. Our stimulus package is retarding the day of growth not accelerating the day of growth.
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“Our stimulus package?” WTF. Rove and his “permanent Republican majority” BS have put such a divide in this country that there will NEVER be another “our” in any policy ever again.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pmHow many times does someone have to say blantantly untrue, self-serving falsehoods on TV before he’s no longer taken seriously by anyone?
Oh, wait — we’re talking about right-wing land, aren’t we?
Never mind.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pmEver notice that the only network that will allow Rove to speak is Fox?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pm“a lot of economists”?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:16 pmthat’s like saying “some people say…”
hey pigboy, name these economists. afterall, you didn’t seem to have a problem naming names when it came to outting a covert cia op.
zooey@3
August 14th, 2009 at 2:16 pmdoes it really surprise you the only place a propagandist like pigboy rove is allowed to speak is a propaganda outlet like faux?
Mr. Rove should be tried for High Treason and crimes against the United States of America.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:19 pm.
A lot of Federal Prosecutors are beginning to wonder why (R)ove is allowed to see another day of growth, retarded or not!
.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:19 pmHello, Eric Holder!
August 14th, 2009 at 2:20 pmThis guy (Rove) is still out there, free.
Alot of Prosecutors say that Carl Rove should be in jail.
Why is this man not in Jail?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:21 pmWhat growth is retarded? The one on Rush’s butt? Oh, yeah, that one is retarded, although I still don’t think the stimulus package is the cause.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:22 pmKarl Rove is a fracking economic ignoramus and he ought to just STFU regarding matters of which he has no knowledge. And just who is it that he’s quoting anyway? Names, please?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:23 pmWhenever the Evil Queen Karlotta says something, I believe the polar opposite.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:23 pmSomeone ask him why we are having to deal with his screw ups and listen to him whine about how we are doing it successfully.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:23 pmPLC,
August 14th, 2009 at 2:24 pmWe will ALL be safer when that the (R)ush (R)ash is retarded…
… NO?
Maybe it’s because he is Bush’s “Squeal like a Pig” bottom…he does look like a pig..
…I wonder if Bush dressed him up with pig ears before going to town on him…
…SQUEAL little piggie…Hehehe…that’s right, I’m the DICKtator and your my piggie..
Oh boy, I don’t think I needed to type that…but I did…hehehe.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:25 pmWhat’s really retarding any growth is the fact that, thanks to Bush & Co., 1% of Americans make 50% of the income, leaving very little for the rest of us.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pmOkay, lets talk about Helicopter Bens money drops Rover.
I havent heard you come out against that retardation of growth.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pmSoon we will be listening to Karl Rove make these pronouncements from jail. :-)
http://www.whereistheoutrage.net
August 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pmTP, please stop reporting what this imbecile “thinks!” Please!
August 14th, 2009 at 2:27 pmLets talk about the trillion dollars Helicopter Ben has injected into equities to give the stock market the appearance of rallying.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:27 pmRove Claims ‘A Lot Of Economists’ Think The Stimulus Package Is ‘Retarding The Day Of Growth’
– - Now, now, Karl. That’s not how we phrase it anymore. ‘A Lot Of Economists’ Think The Stimulus Package Is ‘Socially Challenging The Day Of Growth’
August 14th, 2009 at 2:27 pmI dont recall pig pen [Laura Bush name for Rove] being against the Bush bailouts.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:29 pm11. Virtual Pebble sez:… Oh, sorry, you fracking arsehole Karl Rove.
I suspect that France, Germany, et al are recovering faster than we are because they didn’t go off to China to borrow so damned much money to pay for a misbegotten war. Unlike ourselves, they’re not so far into the hole that they’ll be getting knock on effects for years and decades to come. Thanks, Shrub, and Karl too. You didn’t by any chance help sell that war, did you, Karl? You still don’t know shit about economics.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:29 pmAnd where was Karl and his ‘economyths’ when Dubya put his stimulus plan into effect?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:31 pmAsking his favorite Home Economist isn’t fair. Mommies always tell their kids that they aren’t ugly.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:32 pmWell seeing this is the only place fox news that he can speak and talk out his a$$. knowing that no one ask a importance question.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:34 pmThat why he only goes on fox or right wing radio shows, so he knows there will be friendly questions and well everyone will just agree and swone
One mans booster shot for growth is another mans retardatin of growth, right Karl?
Dont go away mad Karl, just go away. Go retire to your pink house in Florida, please, I beg you. Just retire. I dont need your inane spin and outright lies.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:35 pmKarl is retarding everyone who listens to him.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:35 pmBlue Cross of Northeastern Pennsylvania is seeking more than $24 million in health-insurance premium increases that would affect 54,700 people.
http://www.citizensvoice.com/news/blue_cross_seeks_24_million_in_health_insurance_premium_increases
Another reason why people cant afford to buy stuff to help the economy.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:39 pmHey! Karly! That dimwit hillbilly from “Deliverance” is looking for you! He say
August 14th, 2009 at 2:41 pm“Sooooooooooooeyyyyyyyy!”
Go home to your beard Karl.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:41 pmWhy not just rename Fox the Republican Propaganda Network? The man is of such low character and will, like many others in his party, say literally ANYTHING as long as it registers negative about Democrats, Obama, liberals and progressives, etc. So is anyone at all listening to him, with the exception of Dick Cheney?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:41 pmThere’s a lot of psychologist’s out there that are saying Rove aka turdblossom, is a pathological Liar and his words are worthless.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:42 pmSo many people are saying Rove is a lying sake of sh#t and should be in jail,.
Rove’s comment about Europe is completely wrong. Those countries did enact stimulus packages – in part because of President Obama’s urging. Germany’s stimulus, for example, amounts to 1.5% of its GDP. In addition, it has a number of automatic counter-cyclical stabalizers, such as payroll subsidies.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:44 pmMy guess is that the not to be underestimated devious (R)ove has decided that that more he’s out there yapping and seemingly omnipresent, the more it will look like revenge etc. if Holder moves to prosecute. Get him now before he gets bigger and more untouchable!
August 14th, 2009 at 2:48 pmper usual rover lies.
France and Germany agrees on 50-billion-euro stimulus plan
August 14th, 2009 at 2:50 pm- – GOPers would even challenge this very accurate chart:
http://pics.livejournal.com/tongodeon/pic/000598dc/
August 14th, 2009 at 2:51 pmOnce again: Pay no attention to the Tubby man behind the curtain.
This is just another distraction that Tubby McTreason Rove is creating for the media and public to focus on the negative on Obama’s agenda and not focus on the recent documents dumped by the House committee on the U.S. Attorney firings that the White House officials including Tubby were involved in.
Speaking of Tubby, here is the latest on him:
Rove testimony contradicts former Rep. Heather Wilson’s
Rove says Wilson pushed the White House to fire New Mexico’s then-U.S. attorney, David Iglesias, before the Nov. 2006 election because he wasn’t moving fast enough on a corruption case involving New Mexico Democrats.
Wilson said she did no such thing, insisting that she only spoke to Rove once about Iglesias, and that was following the 2006 election at a White House breakfast.
The ex-lawmaker also said she never mentioned a New Mexico courthouse corruption investigation in her discussion with Rove, a statement that is at odds with the testimony Rove provided to the House Judiciary Committee.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26058.html#ixzz0O8NQrfUz
August 14th, 2009 at 2:53 pmI believe this ia an important one (not related to the topic here)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/14/grassley-voted-for-socall_n_259750.html
August 14th, 2009 at 2:53 pm34. hsny sez:…
Thanks for the corrective info, hsny.
Recalling for a moment what Karl said,
“I thought it was interesting, though, notice that the headline in the Wall Street Journal this morning is about growth in Europe, and Germany, and France. Remember when president Obama went to the G8 and said ‘you oughta try you oughta pass a stimulus package like we did?’ And both of them said forget it…”
Leave it to Murdoch’s FauxWSJ to convince Karl that Europe doesn’t include France and Germany. I seem to recall that President Obama did get a cool reception from the Europeans on a stimulus, but as hsny notes, they did do something of the sort, and they do have some counter-cyclical mechanisms in place. They didn’t say forget it.
That’s what they said to Shrub regarding Iraq, Karl. You’re getting “Old Timer’s Disease”, Karl. Time to go home and STFU.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:58 pm38. SP Biloxi sez:…
Woo hoo. That’s a tad OT, SP Biloxi, but it’ll stir up a really nice nastiness in “Land of Entrapment” (NM) rePublicrite politics, and it’s a tastefully sharp stick for the rest of us to jab the NM Rs with; thanks for the heads up.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:03 pmFor millionaires Rove? Hey, a better question to Rove would have been: “How about those 4,500 documents recently released by the Judiciary Committee showing your complicity in the attorney scandal?”
:|
August 14th, 2009 at 3:06 pmAnyone seeking information from this lump ‘o’ *hit will seek in vain
August 14th, 2009 at 3:08 pmummm, aren’t you all forgeting something.
Remember, Karl’s got the math
August 14th, 2009 at 3:12 pmHas an arrest warrant been issued for Rove yet??
NOTHING he says has any relevance to anything going on in the world at all. He should be in prison or on his way with a full roll of duct tape wrapped around his mouth…end….
August 14th, 2009 at 3:12 pmObviously, Rove is using the old “some say” technique that really means, “I’m just making sh!t up to distract from reality, and I’m hoping there’s a greater chance you’ll buy this load if I use ‘lots of economists say’ to enhance its credibility, even though that’s not true either.”
Not only are economists saying that the stimulus is working, the only economists who have negative things to say about it are saying so because they think the stimulus package should be greater.
But Rove isn’t trying to convince thinking people, he’s just trying to keep the kool-aid choir fired up.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:13 pmA lot of economists……
Does that mean:
a. People who fashion themselves as experts but avoid having any background on which to base their views (see Joe the not-plumber) ?
b. Folks with an econ degree from a non-accredited or barely accredited school that is heavily ideologically slanted (see Lawyers from Regents U).
August 14th, 2009 at 3:13 pm“I’m not reading this. This is bullshit.”
???? — Colin Powell (The Bush junta’s good cop routine, commenting on the quality of the “intelligence” reports on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction before his theater performance at the UN in February.)
~~~
Betcha Colin Powell despises Turd Blossom . .
August 14th, 2009 at 3:25 pmGW says – Hehehe…Turd Blossom…way to go…you got your get out of jail card special delivered…hehehe…no way they can touch you…hehe…I got the goods on OBama’s kids…yeah, tapped their phone and I know they like the those Edunocational shows…you know like the cookie monster and stuff…now they wouldn’t want that released to the public…that’s how I’m staying out of prison…I got the goods on em.
Dick says – I need more blood from fresh kittens.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:26 pmHe is such a revolting character. I read a comment once from another liberal website, were the writer said he wished Karl Rove’s Mother ate him when he was born. Like that of a hamster. So sick, but also so funny.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:36 pmLiberals can’t handle the truth.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:59 pmWhen Rove talks, does anyone else hear the theme from What’s Happening playing in the background? Karl needs a laugh track attached to anything he disagrees with.
August 14th, 2009 at 4:03 pmMaple Street says @#47
A lot of economists……
…
b. Folks with an econ degree from a non-accredited or barely accredited school that is heavily ideologically slanted (see Lawyers from Regents U).
Don’t forget Darlyy, with his cute little CIS degree from Oral Roberts. They took a class on the economics of Tithing…
August 14th, 2009 at 4:16 pmConman ain’t no Colonel Jessup.
August 14th, 2009 at 4:16 pm@52 – but at least we can recognize it.
you’ll just have to continue searching…
August 14th, 2009 at 4:20 pmconservative guy says: Liberals can’t handle the truth.
What an odd way to rationalize Roves lies…by lying.
August 14th, 2009 at 4:32 pmI am a graduated economist from Germany and I share the opinion that a stimulus has a negative net effect. There’s a reason why Germany had a half-hearted stimulus effort only. Our government calmed the pro-stimulus people but kept the waste small.
A stimulus hurts more than it helps, and the fact that it helps a bit does not disprove that.
The money is no gift from god – it was taken away from sources who would have spent it as well. The greatest net change is in public debt, not in demand.
The stimulus concept was quite discredited for many reasons (the decisive arguments lay deep in econometric analysis).
The suddenly, there came this crisis that was terrible. There was no easy cure.
Nevertheless, humans cannot bear the idea of being helpless.
They searched for an easy solution, something they could do about the crisis which had extremely deep reasons and roots.
Some people came up with the old stimulus idea and in a viral campaign it was suddenly believed to be the solution.
Add in a couple of partial interests intent on harvesting taxpayer money for their sector and there you had it: A tsunami of subjective feelings and ideology that swept decades of thorough economic analysis aside.
The roots of the crisis persist – there’s no easy way out. Any attempt to cheat out of this crisis will just dig deeper, probably crash the economy even worse in a second shock in a few years.
Face it: (U.S.)America as nation, federal state, as companies and as individuals has lived too much on foreign credit – that was (and still is) an unsustainable situation.
The addiction to foreign credit created the illusion of wealth that did not exist. Compare the industrial output of the U.S. and its trade balance deficit (in goods) to get an idea. Almost one fifth of the material wealth was borrowed, not earned/produced.
http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2009/02/extent-of-economical-problem-because.html
There’s no easy way back, except through even more debt – and that is unlikely to work (for long).
The stimulus did stimulate consumption. That was the exact opposite of the necessary correction; to reduce consumption to a sustainable level and below (to afford additional savings/investment for a better future).
I like Obama and I’m sure that he’s a better president than any Republican except probably Paul could have been. Nevertheless, he did the mistake of the decade with his stimulus – because he doesn’t know economy. He’s a jurist.
August 14th, 2009 at 4:33 pmThat’s good for reading laws, but useless for understanding the economy.
Sven – You were sounding fairly cogent up until that last paragraph.
Dr. Ronald Fringenkooker Paul?
You can’t be serious. Based on that reference alone, I must conclude you’re a sockpuppet of some type, engaged in an attempt to sow division where none should be.
August 14th, 2009 at 4:56 pmIs conservative guy talking about the subjective nature of truth again? What a tool…
August 14th, 2009 at 5:01 pmRetail sales were projected to rise 0.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 76 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Instead they fell by 0.1%. Huh.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:04 pmLet me add 76 more economists to the list of pundits/Rovers that I dont pay attention to.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:06 pmHow does Mr. Rowe think we can pull ourselves out of the mess his party left the country in? Should we continue to keep shedding jobs? Since we make nothing in this country anymore we have to spend money for the economy to turn around. The statistics released in the past few days don’t show that happening.Of course when jobs continue to be lost that doesn’t promote spending. I think Karl and his pals across the United States should all go find American made cloth and each get 3 new suits made. That would mean American made socks and ties would also be purchased. The people doing the buying would also be in the mood to eat out so that would help- the hospitality industry.Yes,Karl, get out the word that the recession is over. You know though that with bad luck unemployment could get as high as it was in the Reagan administration. Keep your fingers crossed Karl.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:06 pmHandling the truth? Yikes. This conservative guy’s certifiable. What can you say about people who stubbornly attach themselves to political figures who have been proven wrong over and over. What’s Rove ever done for you, conservative guy, other than pretty much ruining the modern conservative movement? How’s that “permanent Republican majority” working out for you?
August 14th, 2009 at 5:16 pmOnly Fox News would have a former campaign manager and future federal penitentiary occupant as an economic adviser. Why would anyone be interested in this guy’s opinion on the economy? What qualifications does he have? But these are the same folks that use Mark Fuhrman as their legal correspondent.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:31 pm@republicanshatefacts:
I graduated as Dipl.-Ök. after five years of studies on a university. Among my specializations were public finance and economic policy.
I have a clue about economics, but you seem to be unable to judge people based on a few lines. That’s nothing special; special is instead that you dare to judge based on a few lines.
Your manners need some polishing as well.
“Retail sales were projected to rise 0.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 76 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Instead they fell by 0.1%. Huh.”
Statistics have a margin of error of about +/-2% if they’re about economic activity like that. A difference of 0.9% tells absolutely nothing.
A miss of 1% doesn’t mean that economists were in error anyway. it rather means that those who believed that such predictions can be that accurate were in error. Predictions always have some tolerance.
“Let me add 76 more economists to the list of pundits/Rovers that I dont pay attention to.”
You should pay attention to the word “median”, though. That info allowed for up to 37 of them predicting the “correct” value. “Median” does not mean that all 76 agreed on that one “wrong” value.
Seriously; Rove is a dick, but partisan ideology isn’t able to cope with the complexity of the world. You guys shouldn’t judge that quickly and based on that little information.
There’s a saying in Germany, it goes like “even a blind hen can occasionally pick a seed”. Rove was wrong on seemingly everything for years, but now he was lucky to come close to truth by sheer luck.
Oh, btw: I linked to my blog in comment #58. That blog clearly proves that I am no Republican and not even conservative at all. Germans would call my political direction rather liberal-green. Liberal has a different meaning in Europe than in the U.S. (we would compare U.S. democrats rather to the far right wing of the German social democrats).
August 14th, 2009 at 5:48 pmI look at much more information than what I posted =) I recall that the pundits and media were denying that we were in a recession for months in 2007-2008 saying the fundamentals were strong and denied being in a recessionary environment.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:55 pmI wouldnt call it luck Rove is just spinning things in favor of his party, he was not against George Bush’s stimulus package and ever said it would retard economic progress back then.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:58 pmIn fact I would be willing to bet that Rove advised Bush to call his stimulus a ‘booster shot’ thats how these Luntzian framers of words operate
August 14th, 2009 at 6:01 pm“pundits and media” isn’t the same as “economists”.
Almost everyone who aspires to become a TV pundit becomes a MSM whore and despised by many real experts.
Besides; there are always disagreements among experts, so you can always have the bad luck of listening to the wrong one.
This crisis isn’t even the same crisis everywhere. The German economic crisis (export markets falling apart and huge importance of trade with European countries) is a mirror image of the British, which is quite identical to the U.S. one. The PR Chinese crisis (export markets falling apart and huge importance of trade with U.S.) is again a mirror image of the U.S. one.
The Eastern Europeans had fragile bubble economies and foreign credit dependence like the U.S., but still a very different kind of crisis.
Southern Europeans had deficit economies and budgets as well, but no major bubbles.
Again; the stimulus treated the crisis as if it was a cardiac arrest when in fact it was a loss of muscle mass. The U.S: hadn’t too little consumption – it had too much.
That doesn’t please or help the lower class Americans, but it’s a fact. You guys didn’t invest enough to maintain the kind of goods output that was necessary to earn the 2007-2008 levels of goods consumption. A stimulus cannot change that. It can at best apply some make-up on the problem in the short term.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:07 pmThere’s no lasting way how the U.S. could prevent a crash of its consumption without much additional foreign debt – and the foreign creditors aren’t dumb enough to give that much credit any more.
Obama added hundreds of billions public debt for a short-term first aid effect instead of proceeding to cure the illness.
“pundits and media” isn’t the same as “economists”.
Almost everyone who aspires to become a TV pundit becomes a MSM whore and despised by many real experts.
I didnt say they were I said I added them to my ‘dont Listen too’ list which contains pundits, economists, trolls and other outlets that have been wrong wrong wrong time and again.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:11 pm“We tried it YOUR WAY and created the GREAT DEPRESSION in this country. Just because you are IGNORANT OF A FACT doesn’t make you RIGHT it makes you an IDIOT!”
Manners, manners…
Seriously; the two world economic crisis aren’t the same, they’re not even close in their roots. They’re only similar in their short-term symptoms.
————————————————————-
It’s interesting that I get perfectly fine responses at Huffington post. Think Progress on the other hand gives the exact same overly aggressive and under-educated partisan attack comments as the U.S. right wingnuts usually give to me.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:12 pmSven–there’s a lot that I find simplistic in your post.
Saying that a stimulus ‘hurts more than it helps–that may possibly be, and it would hurt different parts of the economy at different times and in different ways.
There are three ways to get out from under a crushing debt load: 1) default/devalue; 2) brutal belt tightening, or 3) growth.
1) is to be avoided unless there is no alternative. 2) and 3) only work under specific circumstances.
2) will only work in the case of stability, and only if the numbers work. I a person with huge debts has a regular job, and if the debt can be repaid by cutting expenses down to the bone, then, yes, it’s an option.
But id the debt is too high–or if, say, the person is not an employee but a business owner, and cutting expenditures would cut income, 2) only leads to 1).
3) doesn’t always work–but if you’re a business, expanding your business, even if it means taking on yet more debt, will work–if you expand properly and invest wisely.
To quote an extreme example: if you are deeply in debt, and hire a guy who desins the iPod for you, that investment will save you. If you hire a hundred peole and they design the ipod for you, and you spend millions to retool your factory, you still win.
You can use debt to make you grow. When you’re a nation, they key is less in inventing an iPod than in making your country a place where it’s easier to invent iPods.
One of the biggest barriers to entrepreneurial growth in this country is healthcare. Public health care makes it easier to start new businesses. A better educated work force, a healthier work force improves one’s chances. A social safety net makes it easier to take chances. And a more prosperous market (i.e. people with money to spend) makes business success more likely.
The things Obama is doing–infrastructure, energy independence, healthcare, smoothe foreign relations–not only put money in people’s pockets but make the country better equipped to grow. supporting the fossil fuel oligopoly and the health insurance crime syndicates make growth harder for everyone but the Health insurers and the oil companies, which are not centers of growth.
To quote Gandalf the Grey, all paths are fraught with peril. All of them have risks.
Growth, though is the one path that leaves things larger instead of smaller, if it works. And it’s been shown to work before.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:12 pmBesides; there are always disagreements among experts, so you can always have the bad luck of listening to the wrong one.
If they didnt see the recession and housing boom coming, which many of these folks missed…how can they be considered experts?
August 14th, 2009 at 6:13 pm“I didnt say they were I said I added them to my ‘dont Listen too’ list which contains pundits, economists, trolls and other outlets that have been wrong wrong wrong time and again.”
So you don’t want to listen to economists any more? Good luck for your political opinion on economic policy. Or did you mean you select with your guts some economists whom you trust?
August 14th, 2009 at 6:13 pmSo you don’t want to listen to economists any more? Good luck for your political opinion on economic policy. Or did you mean you select with your guts some economists whom you trust?
Well, I can read and find out things on my own and dont need anyone to form my opinion. I read what alot of what people say but it doesnt mean I listen [follow their belief] what they say.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:20 pm“If they didnt see the recession and housing boom coming, which many of these folks missed…how can they be considered experts?”
Well, not all economists are U.S.Americans and therefore most economists weren’t even informed about your crazy housing market internal affairs.
About the recession; there’s a lot of psychology in markets. Herd behaviour. It’s difficult to tell bad news in many positions of influence because you might do great damage with negative news.
The chairman of the international central bank association saw the crash coming (like scores of other economists who weren’t busy in day-to-day operations). He presented his quite accurate study results to the central bank chairmen and failed to impress Greenspan and the others. Most would have been unable to influence the course of events anyway.
I wrote it before: Experts disagree all the time because “expert” means “well-informed”, not “infallible”. Two economists may get the exact same info on a problem and still disagree on their predictions because they did research on different special areas for years, for example.
That’s why the research on the great depression kept economists busy for decades; it took time to dissipate all necessary bits in the international economic science community.
You may listen to the wrong experts and will suffer. That’s life.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:22 pmThis applies to the stimulus as well.
And just why do people think I should follow an opinion just because it came from a so called expert?
Dough Feith was a lawyer ‘expert’ turns out his advice ‘alternative intelligence’ he called it, was total bunk.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:23 pmI didnt listen to the experts that denied a recession, turned out I was right and I did not suffer a bit.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:25 pmThats weird. Here we have a global economy and the experts are not informed.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:27 pm@pbeeq:
“Saying that a stimulus ‘hurts more than it helps–that may possibly be, and it would hurt different parts of the economy at different times and in different ways.
There are three ways to get out from under a crushing debt load: 1) default/devalue; 2) brutal belt tightening, or 3) growth.”
You approach the problem one step too late.
Sure, it may be possible to recover from a mistake.
The key is not to make the mistake in the first place, though.
Here’s a simplistic (hey, this is a blog comment, for god’s sake!) explanation why the stimulus is a problem (just one of several ways to show the problem):
Where does the money for it come from?
1) Invented (”created”) by the central bank: That’s a tax on cash owners. And it creates inflation unless it’s paid back in time. Paying back means to effectively not use (1).
2) Taken from domestic financial markets: This is a so-called “crowding out”. The undercapitalized companies can get less credit from the financial sector because the government already takes much away. The government takes the money and spends it (differently).
The huge question in this scenario is about the multiplicator effects, a deeply econometric question. An accurate and widely accepted answer about this multiplicator variable would give you not a doctor title, but the Nobel prize.
3) Taken from foreign financial markets. This was unrealistic and did not happen, as the roughly halved U.S. trade balance deficit (=net capital import) shows.
4) Additional taxation. Again, a crowding out. The state takes money away and spends it differently (not additionally). Again, the controversial multiplicator effects are the key.
That’s the general problem of financing and crowding out in the case of a stimulus package.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:33 pmThe problem: The special circumstances (huge & unsustainable trade balance deficit) in the case of the U.S. 2007-2009 tell me that the in theory at best controversial stimulus package pushes into the wrong direction.
It works against a belated self-correction. You’re swimming against the stream. A short-term fix, but it won’t save you from the waterfall.
“Thats weird. Here we have a global economy and the experts are not informed.”
That’s not weird. German economists don’t care much about the U.S.. The U.S. isn’t nearly as important in the world as many Americans believe.
It was also quite fruitless to be informed about the inner workings of U.S. markets. It sufficed to be informed about the shocks that it emits into foreign markets.
Honestly; would the U.S. Federal Reserve or government have reacted to advice from European economists? Under GWB and Greenspan/Bernanke?
No, so why spend time on external factors (that you cannot influence). There are enough areas for research for macroeconomists in the interesting new European common market with its new currency structure.
You rarely get a research contract in Germany for researching the U.S. housing market anyway. We’ve never ever had a housing bubble like yours or the English one (we actually had no major domestic bubbles in Germany post-’45 at all).
August 14th, 2009 at 6:39 pmThat’s not weird. German economists don’t care much about the U.S.. The U.S. isn’t nearly as important in the world as many Americans believe.
I didnt say the US was muy important. But these economists surely were aware that US home mortgages were being bundled into SIV’s and sold to investors around the world.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:40 pmIn fact alot of the TARP funds ended up in foreign banks
August 14th, 2009 at 6:42 pmWe’ve never ever had a housing bubble like yours or the English one
We had one that helped cause the depression and the Glass Steagal act was created to stop investment banks for dealing in mortgages. Wall street lobbyied congress to get this act repealed, eight, nine years ago IIRC, which led to the housing bubble.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:45 pmIve got to run to the store and we can continue this discussion later, if you wish, Sven.
AFK
August 14th, 2009 at 6:48 pmNope.
Only some people in our banks were aware of that.
Actually, sometime in 2007 some economists in German banks (Deutsche Bank, for example) analysed the market and recommended to jump off the ship.
That was kept internal, of course. After all, you can make profit off a crash if you bet on it as a bank.
Those who weren’t entangled didn’t know details and those who were entangled and saw clearly did keep their insight secret for corporate interests.
Our housing market and house financing market looks entirely different. The typical German home-builder enters a saving plan for it, some got it (initial payment) as a gift from his parents at 18th birthday for example.
Furthermore, our home construction industry is contracting. Renovating old homes (for energy saving and comfort) is more important.
The whole U.S. housing market was simply alien to almost all German economists, even to German housing market economists.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:49 pm#90 was a response to
August 14th, 2009 at 6:49 pm“Thats weird. Here we have a global economy and the experts are not informed.”
There, I fixed it for you, cancervative guy.
conservative guy says:
August 14th, 2009 at 6:50 pmLiberals can’t handle the truthINESS.
By “economists”, Rove means anyone who handles his hard-earned money — specifically, his barber and the guy who presses his pants.
August 14th, 2009 at 6:58 pmThe whole U.S. housing market was simply alien to almost all German economists, even to German housing market economists.
I think they wanted it that way. In fact very few investors knew what was in the bundled SIVs. It seems they want to sell their ‘risk’ then bet on the SIVs performance thru derivatives bets.
August 14th, 2009 at 7:13 pmSven, you may have a point, overall, but what is the solution when the problem is that the credit market is frozen, when none of the ordinary suppliers of capital to the market will lend. There was so much noise in the market from lenders and banks being ripped by the collapse of the CDO market that people were, and probably still are, reluctant to take what would ordinarily be a reasonably well understood risk. In that case, the treasury isn’t crowding out, they’re not pulling liquidity out that would go through the ordinary disposition of capital and diverting it to pet projects.
August 14th, 2009 at 7:28 pmThere is road work going on all over this town. I think it’s probably stimulus money. The roads that are being worked on were rather risky for bicycles. It’s nice to see people working.
August 14th, 2009 at 7:40 pm@Virtual Pebble:
1) Accelerate public investments that would take place in the next three years anyways. That’s a short-term stimulus without a noticeable long-term effect on public debt.
2) Let banks fail, then nationalize them. This means to socialize both the risk and the chances of curing the financial market. Everybody needs to anticipate the nationalization to prevent chaos.
Re-privatize the banks systematically, 10% per year. Relinquish control over the banks already when they’re 50% privatized.
3) Focus nationally on an increase of the national savings rate and an increase of goods production (industry). This won’t work in the short term, but it’s necessary in the long term.
4) Reduce public finance waste (especially in the bloated so-called ‘defense’ budget) to free federal vitality for necessary actions (and to keep the budget deficit under control).
5) Increase liquidity in the short term (max. for two years) by channeling zero interest central bank money through nationalized banks and healthy banks. Cut back liquidity in time to prevent another bubble.
6) Accept that some re-distribution of income is necessary. The times are hard, and could be unacceptably hard for many otherwise.
August 14th, 2009 at 7:56 pmThis will only happen through legislation (including income taxation). A reduction of actual (legal & illegal) net immigration would help as well, at least for the least qualified citizens.
Rove is always wrong about everything. He is a criminal. He is an enemy of democracy. Rove is the enemy of politics. consider his claims with caution.
August 14th, 2009 at 8:10 pmCan’t wait to hear what Dead eye Cheney thinks of this ass.
August 14th, 2009 at 8:39 pmProbably a Machiavellian A**hole.
The words “Rove” and “Retard” should appear linked together more often in articles.
August 14th, 2009 at 9:29 pmphhhhffffffbblllttt sorry to resort to making noises here.
At least there is a sign or two our spiraling tailspin may be levelling out. no thanks to the likes of you, butthead.
hmmmmm I wonder if there is a different reason other countries are recovering faster? What else do these countries have in common? OH YEAH! Their socialist! Or, their medical spending is probably a half to a third what ours is. Think that would affect retail and consumer confidence in a consumer economy?
August 14th, 2009 at 10:40 pmconservative guy says:
Liberals can’t handle the truth.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Wrong its just that conservative MORONS like YOU are too stupid to even RECOGNIZE the truth. What an ignorant punkass troll you are
August 15th, 2009 at 4:07 amWell Sven you say you have an economics degree then give us a whole bunch of your OPINIONS. Thing it the CURRENT Nobel Prize winner in Economics disagrees TOTALLY with your OPINIONS. So when did YOU get a Nobel Prize in economics Sven? Or maybe I dont give some GUY claiming an economics degree any real credibility compared to an economist who TAUGHT at MIT, The London School of Economics and Yale.
August 15th, 2009 at 4:12 am“What else do these countries have in common? OH YEAH! Their socialist! Or, their medical spending is probably a half to a third what ours is. Think that would affect retail and consumer confidence in a consumer economy?”
1) “Socialist” is a very wrong descriptions. Americans have warped the meaning of “socialist” and “liberal” beyond recognition. Not all health care systems in Europe are even run by the government.
2) Maybe other countries recover faster because they didn’t cause the crisis and therefore didn’t fail to address the causes?
3) Health care is irrelevant for competitiveness between nations (as far as such a thing exists at all). Health care is just a form of consumption.
Think of doctors as clowns. Your country has a lot of them, it costs a lot, but in the end it doesn’t tell about competitiveness.
At least you cannot import clown services – clowns are necessarily working in your country. That’s even ‘better’ consumption than importing playstations.
Here’s an alternative, microeconomic explanation why health care is irrelevant to competitiveness:
August 15th, 2009 at 4:19 amhttp://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/05/healthcare-competitiveness-fallacy.html
“Well Sven you say you have an economics degree then give us a whole bunch of your OPINIONS. Thing it the CURRENT Nobel Prize winner in Economics disagrees TOTALLY with your OPINIONS. So when did YOU get a Nobel Prize in economics Sven? Or maybe I dont give some GUY claiming an economics degree any real credibility compared to an economist who TAUGHT at MIT, The London School of Economics and Yale.”
Nobel prize laureates are still fallible human beings, and in fact their prize can get to their head just as a “manager of the year” prize tends to get to the head of managers.
Krugman is an attention whore who got his Nobel prize for trade theory research, so I respect Stiglitz much more.
As I said, experts often disagree. Even Nobel laureates.
Economics Nobel prize laureates who oppose the stimulus:
Edmund Phelps (2006)
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-07-13/interview-with-edmund-phelps/2/
There was never a Nobel price for economic studies on how to solve an economic crisis – the closest thing was in ‘81 (Tobin).
By the way; ad hominem is always a poor choice.
August 15th, 2009 at 4:43 amSven Ortmann says:
You are completely wrong that healthcare has nothing to do with competitiveness. OUR large industries subsidize healthcare for those without it or who are underinsured. We pay a lot more so hospitals can recoup the cost that the poor get in emergency rooms. Since our major industrial competitors HAVE nationalized healthcare they have no such burden. Rather they pay a tax which is a level cost. OUR insurance costs sometimes go up 10% or more in a YEAR. So it DOES put our industries at a competitive disadvantage.
You call a man with Krugmas credentials a whore. Have YOU taught at ANY university as respected as Yale of the London School of Economics? Yeah sounds like you are jealous to me. Sure they are fallable. SO ARE YOU. The question is on a message board WHO has more credibility. Please tell me you dont think it is YOU. Stiglitz ALSO agrees with the idea of stimulus. In fact his major criticism is that it isnt BIG enough
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2009/20090108153545.aspx
“It will boost it,” Stiglitz said. “The real question is – is it large enough and is it designed to address all the problems. The answer is almost surely it is not enough, particularly as he’s had to compromise with the Republicans.”
As to the ad hominem. That is YOU snivelling. The ad hominem is only a logical fallacy to the extent it is irrelevant. In fact it would be most accurate to say the Ad hominem usually suffers from the logical fallacy of BEING irrelevant but in THIS case since you came in and touted yourself as someone who had a degree in economics YOU made your credibility an issue. The ad hominem you are complaining about was DEFINITLY relevant in this context. Bottom line Krugman and Stiglitz have more credibility than YOU do. Nothing in the WORLD you can do about that. So your OPINIONS which are pretty much the foundation of your attack on the stimulus just arent convincing
August 15th, 2009 at 7:36 amOh by the way. Snivelling about MY ad hominem in the same post you call Krugman a whore makes you look like a hypocritical fool
August 15th, 2009 at 7:37 amThere isnt any question that when gov spends money the right way it CAN stimulate the economy in HUGE ways. Rural electrification, the hydroelectric system, the highway system and the building of our telecommunication system ALL done with taxpayer dollars brought about the economic golden ages of the fifties and sixties.
August 15th, 2009 at 7:39 amRove is simply one of the biggest liars of all time.
August 15th, 2009 at 9:25 amI’m with eugene on this one. a healthy workforce is much more competitive then one that either cant afford treatment, or is putting off treatment for injury. Which, is pretty much where our lower middle class is right now if you look around.
I agree with what you said about not being involved in the creation of the crisis, but it ends there. And the link pretty much has nothing to do with healthcare. I disagree with the notion that healthcare recipients are “consumers.” Our current insurance system could immediately blindside you with a downpayment on a house you cant afford without a say in the matter. Our current system is more like hostage taking then consumerism.
Oh and I was sarcastic about the socialist thing. It seems to be a wildcard for anything we want to vilify lately.
August 15th, 2009 at 9:48 amMaybe.
Yet, unless you have an economics degree, I have more credibility than you do. Even if you had an economics degree, you would by your own system still have less credibility than economic science Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps. He opposed the stimulus package as well, but you ignored that bit of info because it doesn’t fit into your weakly-founded opinion.
Ad hominem is ALWAYS a dirty trick and logical fallacy. It’s always about arguments. Only those who aren’t educated enough to make use of arguments need to resort to the poor tool of assumed credibility.
I didn’t begin citing pundits, I merely pointed out that certain pundits are attention/media whores (which is not the same as plain whores), implying that they are overrated due to their disproportional media presence.
Dirty rhetorical tricks are for those who have inferior arguments, as demonstrated again by yourself.
August 15th, 2009 at 11:55 am@e_to_the_pOTATO BUG:
I meant consumer/consumption in a macro-economic level. That’s one level for the analysis of competitiveness.
You could look at the microeconomic level as well, and it would still be consumption, distinct from taxes and savings.
A law could oblige you to get a daily haircut and the costs therefore would still be consumption in economic science.
Btw, let me accurize my words: I meant “health care costs”, not “health care”. A healthy population is certainly more productive and therefore competitive than a sick one. Yet, it’s irrelevant for the competitiveness whether that population pays 5% or 15% of its income for health-related services.
August 15th, 2009 at 12:00 pmIsn’t is super cool when you can be a retired thug and get airtime anytime any place.
August 15th, 2009 at 12:01 pmNotice the crackpot doesn’t need notes to lie.He “creates” sewage when he enters the room.
Who pays this drainage ditch now?
I think they all screwed up. The housing bubble was so apparent for so long that I don’t see how anybody missed it. The Bush administration dropped the ball on this one. Then they disappointed me even more with the bank bailouts. The problem is that the current administration is making similar mistakes, doubling and tripling down on the bad bets Bush made. Yeah, at least this administration threw a few good common sense regulations into the package, but in general it’s just been another waste of money we don’t have. It’s hard to know who to support (on economic policy) when everybody in Washington seems so hell bent on spending!
August 15th, 2009 at 12:02 pmEver notice that the only network that will allow Rove to speak is Fox?
August 15th, 2009 at 12:15 pmSven Ortmann says:
Bottom line Krugman and Stiglitz have more credibility than YOU do.
Maybe.
Yet, unless you have an economics degree, I have more credibility than you do.
It’s the internets, “Sven”.
You could be anybody.
I have my doubts that you are who you say you are.
I’ve spent time in Germany and have worked for a German owned company.
Write a couple of your lengthy answers in German and you would gain some credibility in my eyes.
August 15th, 2009 at 12:38 pmThat would only prove that you are someone who can speak German, but it would be a step towards credibility for you.
Ja klar, mal abgesehen davon, dass ich bereits auf meine Webseite verlinkt habe wo massenhaft Deutsch-Englisch Übersetzungen und deutsches Insiderwissen zu finden sind … aber du hast Zweifel daran, dass ich ein Deutscher bin. Ist klar.
Du kannst ja nachfragen an der Uni Hannover, ob da ein Sven Ortmann am 18.10.02 Dipl.-Ök. geworden ist mit Matrikelnummer 1885091.
August 15th, 2009 at 12:51 pm112. Sven et al, re: Degrees etc.
Sorry, guys. Arguments from credentials and arguments from authority carry about as much weight as an ad hominem counter argument. Zip. Zero. Nada.
Credentials and authority do NOT render us immune from error; all that learning and working to acquire pieces of paper just reduces the time until early onset senility. :)
98. Sven sez:…
Sven, I think if you look closely, the administration is doing something quite similar to what you think should be done. If you think not, detail one or two of your points from comment 98.
I think the major difference is that they haven’t nationalized any banks; there are strong cultural reasons for not doing so (oh, those crappy externalities). On the other hand, acquiring shares or equity is either the next best thing or maybe better and that has been done; the caveat being that if we, the nation/government, have acquired part ownership, we damned well need board representation.
August 16th, 2009 at 2:16 amAs I recall, the first outlay of public funds were made on Bush’s watch. Further, this financial meltdown had occurred well before Obama took over the Presidency. Of course, Bush started this dole out of funds long before President Obama was even sworn in. And further, Obama inherited a full blown recession long before he was even elected. As a Republican, I find it totally disingenuous for Republicans to stand around and doing all this hand-wringing after Republicans ushered in this terrible recession. But alas, like the financial experts point out, results from the financial planning done by Obama and his cabinet are showing great results. Even with all of that, no credit to Republicans who have never once risen above politics in order to save our country. And that is why so many of us have chosen to leave the party.
August 17th, 2009 at 3:53 am