Think Progress

Israeli Ambassador Says Iran Not Deterrable Because ‘The Regime Is Not Secular’

During an interview yesterday with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren said that Israel would not be wholly satisfied if Iran agreed to supervision over its nuclear program. “Certainly from Israel’s perspective, we would not be very much at ease with that,” he said. “We have seen how Iran has worked to subvert, to sidestep any type of international supervision of its nuclear program.”

When Zakaria noted that U.S. policies of deterrence against the Soviet Union and China have worked in the past, Oren dismissed the possibility that Iran can be deterred because Iran is “not secular”:

ZAKARIA: Mao was certainly about as crazy as leaders get in terms of the bizarre statements, their willingness to talk about the destruction of the world, inflicting enormous casualties. If these guys were deterred by the fact that they would suffer retaliation, why will Iran not be deterred?

OREN: Because the Maoist regime, the Stalinist regime were secular regimes. They had secular ideologies. … But the Iranian regime is not a secular regime. The Iranian regime is carrying out what they believe to be a divinely ordained task on the planet, and that is the conduct of a holy war.

Watch it:

Oren is subscribing to the radical “Iran as irrational actor” view espoused by the likes of far right neocons Micheal Ledeen and Frank Gaffney. Just because a nation is religious does not make it undeterrable.

As the Wonk Room’s Matt Duss notes, “Iran’s actual policy choices over the last three decades indicate rational strategic calculations. … Preservation of the Islamic Republic, not some crazy desire to trigger the apocalypse, is what guides Iranian policy.” Mehdi Khalaji, an expert in Shiite theology at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has studied in Qom, has challenged the theory that Iran’s leaders are willing to commit national suicide in pursuit of some wider religious goal:

As the theory of the guardianship of the jurist requires, the most significant task of the Supreme Leader is to safeguard the regime, even by overruling Islamic law. Therefore, it seems like Khamenei, unlike the Iranian president, does not welcome and military confrontation with the West, the United States, or Israel.

When asked recently if Iran could be deterred, nuclear expert and Harvard professor Graham Allison, who is renowned for his expertise on bureaucratic decision making said “the benefit that Iran could hope to achieve by building up its own military forces, including nuclear forces would be significantly diminished,” with a credible U.S.-led military deterrent.



55 Responses to “Israeli Ambassador Says Iran Not Deterrable Because ‘The Regime Is Not Secular’”

  1. RUCerious says:

    =Trial balloon for preemptive strike.


  2. Max Anax junius -1 says:

    .

    … And Israel is trustworthy, JUST HOW?

    .


  3. RUCerious says:

    The Israeli regime is carrying out what they believe to be a divinely ordained task on the planet, and that is the conduct of an unholy war and illegal occupation.



  4. Luis Chapulin M says:

    Max Anax junius -1 says:
    … And Israel is trustworthy, JUST HOW?

    No, no, see, they must really really super-duper MEAN it this time.


  5. gummble-bee-itch says:

    Someone’s irony detector must be broken. The Jewish State is criticizing another country for not being secular? Does no one remember Eretz Yisrael and the justification for the settlements?


  6. katy says:

    this guy scares me… way too very smooth…

    thought i’d choke when he said something about israel not being a threat to palestinians… uh huh…

    did they pick an americanized ambassador for any particular reason?
    a seemingly blue-blooded smooth talking rep…

    he seemed a bit put off that fareed would dog him as he did…

    i say, thank you, fareed zakaria.


  7. EnnuiDivine says:

    How is Mao’s China or Stalin’s USSR considered “secular”? Any regime based on rigid ideology, be it Likud’s Israel, Khameni’s Iran, or (insert random historical monster’s) faux Communist regime, none can readily be reasoned with.

    Netanyahu’s government is hanging on by a thread. The vast majority of the Israeli people oppose striking Iran…if Netanyahu orders the strike, he’ll be deposed and arrested.


  8. konchster says:

    Neo-con Israelis are no different than our home grown neo-cons They thrive on war and are busy selling us on getting into another one. That should pretty much sink our economy.


  9. ralph the wonder llama says:

    Israeli Ambassador Says Iran Not Deterrable Because ‘The Regime Is Not Secular’

    He’s got a point. After all, Bush’s regime was not deterrable, either.


  10. raynman says:

    I think people, as a whole, are getting pretty tired of the ‘war is good for the economy’ dictum and are starting to understand the ‘war is good for the economy of the people in charge and pretty much sucks for everyone else’ reality.

    At least I hope so.


  11. GeorgeandDick says:

    George says – Hehehe…I had decidered that a new..clear attack on Iran would have really stabled..ized…the whole region… but those pesky little people here started catching on that I was pretty much going to destroy the whole world…too bad I couldn’t keep them destract…e…ated with the failing economy a little longer…my superior decidered plan would have worked…and my deal with the devil would have keep me alive forever…just ask Dick.

    Dick says – I want fresh kitten blood.


  12. katy says:

    The Iranian regime is carrying out what they believe to be a divinely ordained task on the planet, and that is the conduct of a holy war.

    … and everything else he said, sounded like pure projection…

    imagine that…


  13. Annie B. says:

    “The regime (Iran) is not secular” says Ambassador Oren.

    Nor is Israel a “secular” regime!


  14. Virtual Pebble says:

    It isn’t clear to me that any of this is rational. The Iranians seem to be perfectly capable of ignoring the fact that we have a strategic deterrent nuclear force, which is quite capable of a strike or counterstrike which would obliterate any approximation of urban civilization in Iran, with enough left over for a strategic war with Russia and China combined.

    Given that the Iranians would have to play out about 50 years of advanced nuclear weapons development in a very short time to come anywhere near any of the major nuclear powers is indicative that they aren’t considering that at all.

    They may be doing exactly what they say they’re doing, developing a more-or-less peaceful nuclear power infrastructure. I say more-or-less because that infrastructure does give them access to weapons material production with not very significant modification to power operations.

    They may be engaged in a weapons program simply to shut out the possibility of the nearby Sunni states getting there first and then applying strategic pressure on them.

    They may be engaged in a nuclear weapons program to counter the Israeli advantage in that field; that would also be an arms race where they start at a disadvantage, but not as great as the disadvantage with respect to the 5 major nuclear powers.

    The risk with that last is that the Israelis may decide that the only method for preventing a long term advantage to the Iranians is a nuclear strike, via nuclear armed intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), designed to obliterate the Iranian nuclear complex as it stands at the moment.


  15. lalala says:

    Israel isn’t secular…


  16. Obzerv says:

    This coming from a nation whose rationale for illegal occupation and genocide is ordinance from God?


  17. katy says:

    gummble-bee-itch says:

    Someone’s irony detector must be broken. The Jewish State is criticizing another country for not being secular?

    fareed asked him about that too… his choice of wording:
    “the jewish nation state” or something like that…

    oren specifically said, when asked, that the wording has been changed to reflect some kind of “change”…

    he even offered that the palastinians could call “their” country the “palastinian nation state” (or however he worded it)…

    i must say, i was a bit fascinated, watching this guy spin…

    i just have a bad memory… and wasn’t able to take notes at that time…


  18. The Observer says:

    Why do progressives support the Iranian regime? I really don’t get it. Can someone explain this to me.

    I also don’t get conservatives demonetization of Iran, they have internal problems and are a weak nation.

    Both sides go to extreme positions on this vile regime.


  19. Daddy-O says:

    One more thing from the thread below:

    Human Rights Watch is the only organization I’ve been able to give money to lately…the Dems called just yesterday, and I turned them down flat.


  20. Steak N Eggs says:

    This comment has been voted down. Click to read.


  21. Daddy-O says:

    Israel may not be completely secular, but they’re not Hassidic or Orthodox just YET. They do allow women to wear makeup and mingle with men.

    Compare it with Iran, and there’s no comparison. But in my opinion, Jimmy Carter is dead right–there is an awful state of apartheid in Israel right now. I don’t think it will end well.

    Israel’s secularism will be downright progressive compared with Iran’s, Egypt’s, Saudi Arabia’s, etc. Even Iraq’s.


  22. Daddy-O says:

    Steak N Eggs! What a STUPID f**king thing to say!

    When Iran uses those nukes on Israel, what do you think will happen?

    I’ll bet you’ll never get within a parsec of being in the position to decide foreign affairs with ANY organization or country. People as crazy as you are generally not allowed even a peashooter…


  23. Daddy-O says:

    Now THAT’S how you treat a troll. With a sensa humah! And then ignore them for-EVAH.


  24. Daddy-O says:

    Virtual Pebble: Very good points, well made and well-written.

    I think it’s very simple: Nukes are never used for offensive purposes (except by the U.S.). They are DEFENSIVE weapons.

    If I’m Iran, I already HAVE nukes, it’s just not been announced. Nukes keep the George W. Bushes, et al, from invading. Because even if Iran can’t hit the U.S. directly, it’s still a big enough threat. That’s why we can’t invade North Korea…


  25. Daddy-O says:

    GeorgeandDick:

    I hate to ruin your very fine joke, but I believe Dick Cheney long ago lost his taste for kitten blood, which was only a poor substitute for his real thirst…


  26. katy says:

    oh, i almost forgot…

    try to find the clip where fareed is trying to pin him down on whether or not israel has nuclear weapons…

    i forget (imagine that) the wording, but he wouldn’t commit…


  27. Luis Chapulin M says:

    The Observer says:
    Why do progressives support the Iranian regime? I really don’t get it. Can someone explain this to me.

    Sure. It’s “Apples and oranges” time!

    This apple represents the Iranian government. Many people don’t like this apple, for several reasons.

    These crates of oranges represent the Iranian people. We’ll put the apple right in the midst of all the oranges.

    This walrus-mustached idiot, armed with a wrecking ball, wants to get rid of the apple, because the apple could someday possibly hypothetically have an inkling of an idea of maybe dreaming of threatening the pineapple over there, sitting hundreds of miles away and armed with 200 nuclear weapons, and is currently kicking the living crap out of the prunes who live right next to it.

    So the walrus-mustached idiot wants to drop the wrecking ball and squish all the oranges in order to get to the apple, just so the pineapple can feel safe.

    We think the oranges deserve to live un-squished. It’s that so hard to understand?


  28. tarazan says:

    Is Israel a ’secular’ state as the ambassador suggested?!!

    Israel is no different than Iran when it comes to religion and state. Just because Israel has no ‘Ayatollah’ does not make it secular.
    Religion and state laws in Israel are mixed just like in Iran. One is called ‘Islamic’ the other is called ‘Jewish’,the difference is Iranians are not shy about including Islamic word describing the name of their state,but Israel as everybody refers to as ‘The Jewish’state claims to be secular.
    Religion and Rabbis in Israel possess an unquestionable and undenied power that is behind many many laws written in Israel.

    The ambassador is not being honest about religion’s influence and the impact of Jewish faith on life in Israel from politics to wars, to many oter areas.

    Israel today in fact keeps drifting to the extreme Right and religious parties are enjoying today more power in every year and in every elections in Israel like never they had before.


  29. RantingTommy says:

    Just another case of religion ruining everything.

    It’s a shame that the enlightenment era didn’t hold.


  30. Cal Malenky says:

    Calling Bomber Bolton.


  31. pags2 says:

    Iran is not on some religious mission but, rather it is trying to become the big dog in the Middle East. That threatens Israel but also the Saudis, Egypt, Kuwait and the other Arab countries.
    The only deterrence to Iran is a strong Israel with US backing and the cooperation of the Arab countries. Iran can only exercise influence over the region if there is no countervailing power. We don’t want to introduce nuclear arms to the Middle East but we need to keep them nearby. Iran realizes it is spending a lot of money on defense and arms and that comes at the cost of social unrest. Would a regime change be better? That is unknown.


  32. NinerFan says:

    “You can’t run a country on a book of religion,
    Not by a bit or a smudge or a smidgon
    Of foolish rules of ancient date,
    Designed to make you all feel great
    While you bend, fold and mutilate
    Those unbelievers in the neighboring state.”

    Frank Zappa, “Dumb all Over”


  33. Obzerv says:

    Israel is the only “nation” in the world which still maintains apartheid and anti-miscegnation laws. The neo-cons are hellbent on landing us yet in another preemptive war halfway around the world. These are the same people who call themselves fiscally responsible. Hypocrisy is ingrained in the rethuglican party, the two go hand in hand.


  34. profmarcus says:

    do you suppose a statement that israel is a secular state will be forthcoming…?

    And, yes, I DO take it personally


  35. okie dokie says:

    Theocratical or secular, war profiteering is the biggest and easiest money on the planet.
    Ambassador Oren is just laying the groundwork to ask for more U.S. “aid”.

    Ahmadinejad did the same with Khamenei, and now he has his own personal army, the Basij. It is a million strong gangster cult of devoted followers that are paid $200 a day. And of course, the Iranian people and it’s economy are paying the bill.

    Not so unlike the “private contractors” of Bush and Cheney
    that we’ll be paying on until jesus comes back,
    and makes war and money tabu.

    And the true secularist, the “godless communist” Chinese, are just laying low, collecting interest, and waiting for the final chip to fall.


  36. delafield says:

    Having Israel as an ally is like having a shit stain on your shoe.


  37. klide says:

    The new viceroy has spoken; get ready for another middle east adventure.


  38. Frankly_my_dear says:

    Daddy-O:

    That’s why we can’t invade North Korea

    No, the People’s Republic of China is the reason we can’t invade North Korea.


  39. Virtual Pebble says:

    25. Daddy-O, thanks. You’ve a good point or three yourself. I’d claim that nukes aren’t even very good defensive weapons, unless your defense is down to the doomsday scenario. Nukes don’t have the precision for a minimal application of necessary force doctrine, except (possibly) in very limited circumstances.

    Yes, the new North Korean nuclear arsenal means we aren’t going to invade, but we weren’t going to anyway, except in Darth Bolton’s fevered imagination. The only way you can invade DPRK is to do an end run around the DMZ, and since McArthur did that to them over 50 years ago to get around the Pusan siege, which they’ve not forgotten, it just wasn’t going to happen.

    Unfortunately, if you’re following the Darth Bolton foreign policy method of not talking to people or governments you have a problem with, things don’t much move on that front either. I hope that has changed but the Kimmies can be fracking impossible at times; the difficulty for us in dealing with them hasn’t been anywhere near entirely self-imposed.

    27. Katy, that business of not being drawn in on a discussion of Israel’s nuclear weapons should not be a surprise. No admission, no comment, has long been the official stance of the Israeli government, regardless of which party is in power. Makes no difference, left, right, or center, they aren’t going to say anything. That leaves everyone outside of Israel in the position of not officially knowing squat and not having to do anything about it or respond. If a government is on good or at least neutral terms with the Israelis, they can just tell people with a peeve or concern about Israeli nukes to go talk to the Israelis; ie, “we know nothing…”.

    Since (almost) everyone “knows”, or is pretty sure there’s an arsenal there, with the only question being the size of the arsenal, people ‘agin’ it can protest and those governments which have an official policy of being anti-Israeli can rail against it and make propaganda, etc etc; make wild arse claims about Zionists nuking Arab babies in their cribs, etc, and no one can push them into the old “put up or shut up” corner.

    Not that there’s much likelihood of anything like a demand for proof having an effect on, say, the Iranian state. They’re pretty much going to make a lot of noise while going about whatever nefarious deeds they’re endlessly plotting; they’re gonna do what they’re gonna do and damn everyone else, except when directed otherwise by the Supreme Big Turban Dude.

    Both the Israelis and the Iranians are more than a little paranoid, and with good reason. The result is endless plotting and scheming against each other, trying to draw in third parties in some cases, supporting and funding other third parties in others. Shit, we could draw a flow chart or process diagram for the whole thing, which would, unfortunately, do next to nothing for helping resolve the mess.


  40. Virtual Pebble says:

    33. NinerFan sez:…

    Smidget, smidget, where are you? Ninerfan is dissing you, smidget. Oh. Sorry. That’s smidgon.

    Never mind, smidget.

    Just my usual Monday morning dyslexia… (slinks off to another thread)


  41. EugeneDebs says:

    Steak N Eggs says:

    Shove it up your tarhole you ignorant punkass false flag troll


  42. MapleStreet says:

    Iran can’t be deterred because of the strong religious overtones of its government.

    And Israel doesn’t have religious overtones in its govt.

    Therefore wouldn’t it follow that you can’t reason with Israel?


  43. EugeneDebs says:

    Frankly_my_dear says:

    Daddy-O:

    That’s why we can’t invade North Korea

    No, the People’s Republic of China is the reason we can’t invade North Korea.
    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

    True in fact I would go so far as to say it is the reason we HAVENT invaded North Korea


  44. AlphaLiberal says:

    Uh, Ambassador Oren, should we apply your same logic to other nations? Like the “Jewish state of Israel?”

    Now that you mention it, I’ve never been comfortable with supporting a religious state.


  45. anna says:

    Oh would this be similar to the selective manipulation that Jews use to claim the territory now called Israel.

    Oh God gave us that land way back when. You know the God of the Bible written by a bunch of Jewish guys.

    What a bunch of horseshit

    Ledeen, Gaffney, Bolton, Kristol, Cheney, Woolsey etc the same team who lied our nation into Iraq are manufacturing consent for a strike on Iran and the MSM is allowing them to get away with it.

    Have you heard David Gregory, Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, Katie Couric, Stephanopoulous etc challenging the warmongers (and I have heard Hillary Clinton and Obama) repeat the unsubstantiated claims that Iran “has ,is, wants to, might, could, thinks about” a nuclear weapons program.

    Not one challenge from the MSM when these unsubstantiated claims are repeated. Not one challenge

    Go to Juan Coles informed comment for the direct translations of what Ahmadenijad has said about Israel


  46. Frankly_my_dear says:

    anna:

    Not one challenge from the MSM when these unsubstantiated claims are repeated. Not one challenge

    The MSM doesn’t challenge what people say. They don’t do fact checking. If you ask them they will tell you that that is not their job. Their job, as they see it, is simply to report what people tell them as accurately as possible. What is true and what is false is simply not their concern. They don’t have the resources (including intellectual) to be able to distinguish one from the other. Besides, if they point out that what one side is saying is false, that side will be mad at them and won’t give them any more stories.


  47. Virtual Pebble says:

    46. Anna sez:…

    Anna, there’s actually more than just a little bit of archeological evidence that the Jews were in the area known now as Israel or Palestine when they first compiled the Bible. So having been there shouldn’t really be an issue.

    Granted, the Bible isn’t a real estate title so that shouldn’t be an issue, either.

    Then, everyone likes to forget the fact that the Jews and Arabs, both being Semites, are really engaged in something more like an argument between long lost cousins than a war between completely alien peoples. Of course, since we all come out of Africa, except the Africans who stayed, none of us are alien peoples.

    And don’t forget that the Jews and the Persians (Iranians) go back a long long way too.

    Just sayin’.


  48. Winski says:

    And you take an Israeli’s word as gospel?? HA!!! You are either stupid or living in 1948….maybe both!!


  49. Hoodathunk says:

    Somehow a nonsecular government saying another nonsecular government can’t be trusted just doesn’t ring true.

    If Iran is susceptible to religious influences in their government because they are nonsecular, just where does that leave Israel?


  50. wiley says:

    One of Iran’s religious aspects is a fatwah against nuclear weapons issued by the Ayatollah. I do wish the media would start challenging anyone who speaks for or about Israel with FACTS. The only nuclear armed nation in the mid-east has no room to talk about what a threat anyone else is.


  51. DICKERSON3870 says:

    RE: Israeli Ambassador Says Iran Not Deterrable Because ‘The Regime Is Not Secular’

    SEE: “Citing ‘Amalek,’ Goldberg/Netanyahu would seem to prescribe genocide for Iran”, by Philip Weiss, 05/18/09

    (EXCERPT) Were you disturbed by the news that Donald Rumsfeld used biblical quotations in headlines of war reports to President Bush so as to command the commander-in-chief’s shallow attention? It’s so easy to bash Bush. Zionists do this stuff too. The smartest response I’ve seen to Jeffrey Goldberg’s piece in the Times on Netanyahu’s biblical thought process re Iran comes from Daniel Luban, who points out that in invoking Amalek, the villains of Deuteronomy in the Old Testament, Netanyahyu/Goldberg are citing a controversial section of the bible in which God orders genocide against a people. Luban:

    Goldberg clearly does not wish to rattle his right-thinking liberal New York Times audience, so he conveniently omits all this from his account of Amalek. However, if Netanyahu’s advisors are right to say that Bibi sees Iran as the new Amalek, this is a fact with profoundly disturbing implications. After all, the biblically ordained way to deal with the Amalekites is not through “smart but tough” diplomacy, “crippling” sanctions, or even precise and targeted military strikes. Rather, it is through root-and-branch extermination — that is, wiping Iran off the map. Goldberg writes that “[i]f Iran’s nuclear program is, metaphorically, Amalek’s arsenal, then an Israeli prime minister is bound by Jewish history to seek its destruction, regardless of what his allies think.” This is not quite accurate. If we take God’s command and the Amalek analogy literally, then an Israeli prime minister would be bound not to seek “its [the Amalekite arsenal’s] destruction,” but rather “their [the Amalekites’] destruction.”

    ENTIRE POST – http://mondoweiss.net/2009/05/citing-amalek-goldbergnetanyahu-would-seem-to-prescribe-genocide-for-iran.html

    ALSO SEE: “BUSH HAD GOG AND MAGOG, BIBI HAS AMALEK”, by Richard Silverstein, 05/25/09
    LINK – http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2009/05/17/jeffrey-goldberg-willing-tool-of-israels-perception-management-campaign-leading-to-iran-war/


  52. DICKERSON3870 says:

    RE: Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren

    SEE: “SHALEM CENTER’S MICHAEL OREN LIKELY BIBI’S NEW AMBASSADOR TO U.S.”, by Richard Silverstein, 04/21/09

    (EXCERPT) Thanks to a reader who points out that Maariv is reporting that Bibi Netanyahu’s new ambassador to the U.S. will likely be Michael Oren of the Shalem Center Likudist think tank. The organization is heavily supported by Sheldon Adelson and boasts Natan Sharansky as one of its key members.
    The potential appointment would represent a triumph of the Center as it wheedles its way into the Israeli and U.S. political mainstream. Now, Adelson will have his man at his beck and call in Israel’s D.C. embassy.
    In some ways, the appointment makes perfect sense and in some ways it makes little or no sense. Michael Oren is a smooth-talking, cool, calculating intellectual egghead best known for his Wall Street Journal columns extolling his PR flackery for the Gaza war and other rightist conceits…
    …One of my readers who’s heard him speak publicly calls him in an entirely unscientific evaluation “the most self-righteous, self-aggrandizing idiot” he’s ever heard…

    ENTIRE POST – http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2009/04/21/shalem-centers-michael-oren-to-be-bibis-new-ambassador-to-us/


  53. rick mears says:

    I’ve never seen so much anti-Israel and anti-Semitic garbage in one place in my life. I am a new member here, not a “troll,” which seems to be the label given to anyone who disagrees, but I thought liberals and progressives stood for the oppressed. No nation has been attacked more than Israel by neighbors for its 60+ years, and no people have been persecuted (usually executed) more than Jews. This obvious fact was actually disputed on another thread here (re: Jon Voight). (What was disputer thinking; there were the 6 million in the Holocaust, plus the Spanish Inquisition, the pogroms in Russia and Ukraine, the attacks to this day by Palestinians and every other Moslem group who openly say they DON’T want peace with Jews, anti-Semitism in almost EVERY Arab country promoted by the government, incl. Saudi TV programs teaching children that Jews descend from apes and pigs… there are tons more examples).

    The fact that the Jews, and Israel, get attacked by the Right and also OBVIOUSLY here by the Left, in itself shows their status at the bottom of the ladder.

    Some of the hate comments on this site are ludicrous. Don’t let the Progressives in the US be hijacked by the Palestinians, a people who would rather their children die (and they make them human shields to prove it) than to live in peace with Jews.

    What the hell has happened to Progressives? I am one gladly, but many of YOU are becoming the flaming bigots that the right have been toward Jews, blacks, Latinos, foreigners, and others. Shame on you.


  54. rick mears says:

    The Arab states were calling for the EXTERMINATION of Israel, publicly, through the 1980s, and to this day are totally hostile to Israel; Iran is that way NOW, in 2009.

    You people (I’m asking the fair-minded ones) think that ANYTHING Israel does in response, just to stay alive, is unjustified? You’re crazy.



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