McConnell mistakenly claims Republicans and Democrats are ‘close to even’ in the polls.
McConnell mistakenly claims Republicans and Democrats are ‘close to even’ in the polls.
At a press conference this afternoon, a reporter asked Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to explain why such a low number of Americans (approximately 20 percent) self-identify as Republicans. McConnell responded by dodging the question, saying, “You can pick out of polls what you want to focus on.” He then proceeded to pick out a number he wanted to focus on:
I think a very interesting question of most of the polls I’ve seen in the last few months is the question of the party generic ballot. That is, if the election were held today, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican or the Democrat? Most of the surveys that I’ve seen in the last three weeks or so have us close to even.
Watch it:
McConnell is sadly mistaken. As The Plum Line’s Greg Sargent reports, a new Washington Post poll shows the gap between the two parties is currently as wide as it has been in the previous two elections:
Right now, the poll finds that when respondents are asked whether they will vote for a Dem or a GOPer in the 2010 elections, 51% pick the Dem and 39% pick the Republican.
In June of 2008 (the most recent historical data in the WaPo poll), Dems led the generic matchup 52%-37%. And in early November of 2006 the Dem lead was 51%-45%. Today the spread is largely unchanged.
Despite this, GOP cockiness about the midterms is widespread.
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You really expect McConnell to admit that he’s a bozo ?
October 20th, 2009 at 6:05 pmMaroons. Utter and incredible Maroons. There is Truly no medicine to cure a fool.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:08 pmlaugh of the week. – thanks, dummy.
mitch evidently does keep his head in the sand when he’s not saying ridiculous things to the press.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:08 pmDespite this, GOP cockiness about the midterms is widespread.
Good. The thrashing they receive next year will be all the more sweet.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:13 pmOnly in his dreams.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:14 pmThis comment has been voted down. Click to read.
Yea Mitch the GOP has really fixed their bad name.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_09/020010.php
October 20th, 2009 at 6:17 pmMcConnell mistakenly claims Republicans and Democrats are ‘close to even’ in the polls.
– - He wasn’t mistaken, he was shoveling horsesh*t.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:18 pmMcConnell mistakenly claims Republicans and Democrats are ‘close to even’ in the polls.
You’re being far too generous, Faiz.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:20 pm“Most of the polls I’ve seen . . ” Guess he reads as much as Sarah!
October 20th, 2009 at 6:20 pmLies aren’t mistakes.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:23 pmHe need’s to stop reading Fox news poll’s
October 20th, 2009 at 6:24 pmMcConnell is sadly mistaken.
He’s a liar or stupid.
I pick both myself.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:25 pmSenate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), I am calling you out as President Obama instructed. You are a LIAR!
October 20th, 2009 at 6:27 pmYet another (R) using his own set of made up facts completely removed from reality.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:27 pmThese guys are delusional. Even with the Democrats? In their dreams. The Dems approval is really low, but the Repugs are lower than dirt. In fact, their Party is at it’s lowest in decades. When they backed the ‘Tea-baggers’, ‘Birthers’, and the ‘912ers’ they caused serious damage to their Party. Oh sure, Vitter will hold onto his seat and a lot of others as well. But that is mostly down South. They will be a regional Southern Party. And they have nobody to blame but themselves.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:29 pmGallup is no better than a polling service for the Repiggies, Backup.
Try again.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:29 pmBackup: Keep backing up to the time you made any sense, take as much time as you need.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:33 pmWill the GOP’s funeral be open casket,
October 20th, 2009 at 6:35 pmor will they fillibuster against any service
to “eliminate wasteful spending”?
That’s gonna take awhile Rab. He never has from what I’ve seen.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:35 pmMcConnel – now is this a person i should trust to represent me [or any one else for that matter] in a complex modern world?
I already forgot what he claims this time…
October 20th, 2009 at 6:41 pmbackup says:
If you trust gallup, they’ve got a poll that makes it look close:
Unlike others, I don’t distrust gallup, but they don’t do much to explain the relevance of their data. For that, I trust no one as much as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight (who pretty much nailed every single prediction in 2008), and if you’re really interested — rather than just throwing sh!t at the wall — take the time to read this.
But read it all, because he is very thorough, and please read it before you offer any opinions on what he’s talking about.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:57 pmWhy do backup and others believe a vague poll of 1,000 who are asked by phone who they will vote for 13 months from now….
Yet treat as ridiculous a study of 30,000 exiting the polling stations in 2004 (and 2000, 2002, 2006, 2008) of actual voters who were asked “who did you just vote for?”?
If vague non-empirical polls of 1,000 claim accuracy within 3%, how can the exit polls of 30,000 be off by a full 3%? Statistically, it is extremely impossible.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:59 pmWow…what a clown.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:02 pmPolls are misleading. McConnell missed his chance. The number of people who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats is fairly close nationwide, but varies widely regionally.
Consider the number of people who call themselves Christians and check out church attendance numbers.
Saying it’s so don’t make it so. That’s politics.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:02 pmMcConnel – we don’t need this
October 20th, 2009 at 7:04 pmhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/political-party-affiliation-states-blue-red-far.aspx
six month study of 160,000 Jan-June 2009
Only four small population states are solid red: Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, and Idaho.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:06 pm29 states plus DC are blue.
gummitch. I’ve trusted gallup, because I’ve believed it was unbiased, but I’ve been looking up some info just now and it seems they aren’t the end all.
The thread says that McConnell’s seen polls that show the race close. If he’s talking about gallup, that’s legitimate.
Polls don’t really mean much (except the ones that happen in November of election years). I’m also not disputing the poll that Keith is pointing too.
What’s way more important than today’s polling for Republicans is real loyal opposition and avoiding partisan obstructionism.
People will know the difference and vote accordingly next year.
Republicans still need to find a real voice.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:09 pmRepublicans have a voice – that’s all they have – that and bad ideas.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:13 pmThe republicans are telling themselves anything at this point to make themselves feel better.
Wait until health care reform is passed and they’ll be on record as supporting the CEO’s of these companies and not Americans! Can’t wait.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:14 pmThe problem is simply that Republicans have found their voice. Hahahahh. wish it was funny.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:15 pmAccording to the following poll, only 20% call themselves republicans at this point:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_101909.html?sid=ST2009101902502
(next to the last question on the bottom)
October 20th, 2009 at 7:16 pmHow come McConnell never talks about his wife’s connection to Enron and how she hates the workers of America?
October 20th, 2009 at 7:19 pmApe-Man. Republicans have mismanaged the issues, but they could have people to represent. The next question after the party affiliation question (Republican 20%), Is Liberal/Moderate/Conservative question: (page 26)
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/4_090428_NBC-WSJ_Full.pdf
Liberals 24%, Moderates 35%, Conservatives 35%
Republicans haven’t been handling it, but there are people that need representation that may not be getting it.
A potential pitfall for progressives would be to be lulled into complacency by the weakness of the Republican party and ignore the potential of a public that self identifies as moderate or conservative.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:24 pmThis comes from listening exclusively to Fox “News”
October 20th, 2009 at 7:30 pmMcConnell sure knows how to put a happy face on a lie.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:30 pmbackup says:
… Republicans have mismanaged the issues, but they could have people to represent.
They didn’t “mismanage the issues”. They “mismanaged” the country and several other parts of the world to the point where the international economy shrank by nearly a third while simultaneously squandering every bit of international goodwill we had once, at least in some degree, earned.
I don’t know how many different ways we can put it. We don’t despise the GOP “on the issues”. We despise their results, their failures, and their utter inability to take credit for even their slightest blunders among the innumerable disasters we won’t even discover for years to come.
They’ve had the White House for 28 of the last 30 years. They’ve had the House, Senate, or both for 30 of them. The time they haven’t been in power they have spent whining that, somehow, the “libruls” held them back, or forced them to act rashly, depending on what bit of responsibility they are trying to shirk; action or reaction.
And all the while they’ve been moving farther and farther to the most radical fringe of the right-wing. The only people they represent are greedy, frightened, fools and religious fanatics. That turd just won’t take a polish any more.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:37 pmFor decades now, while people are more likely to call themselves conservative than liberal——-65% favor universal government-run healthcare, 65% favor spending less on military and more on education, 70% think the rich and large corporations should pay more taxes, 70% favor Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, HeadStart, unemployment extensions, McCain got whipped by Obama, 60-40 margin in Senate, etc.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:38 pmpoll Oct. 11, 2008:
country going in right direction = 8%
country pretty seriously off on wrong track = 90%
no opinion = 2%
pete’s right. That’s not bad public relations, that’s taking the country over a cliff!!
October 20th, 2009 at 7:42 pmMcChinless lives in lollipop land. Keep boozing it up, McTurtle, that way you can keep your delusions real….for you, Boner and crew.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:45 pmpete. okay. split the moderates between liberals and conservatives and you come up with
Liberals 42%, Conservatives 52%
I agree that Republicans haven’t been providing leadership.
But, what I am saying is there is a substantial number of those conservatives that aren’t really being represented effectively.
It’s a population that has potential, if they get a legitimate alternative.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:45 pmI can’t seem to find the link, and the poll can be interpreted in a few ways but, something like 6% of scientists polled identified themselves as Republicans while 35% said they were conservatives and 40+% moderates.
That tells me that the GOP has forced out smart people of all political leanings. Their own leading voices are busy casting out anyone who shows any sign of moderation or, God help them, cooperation in running the government of this country.
It’s not quite time to split them into separate entities but I think it’s safe to say that chances are great that “Republican” and “social conservative” are becoming less synonymous as the circular firing squad continues. I suspect that the next few Republican primaries are going to be spectacularly nasty and could well result in the demise of the neocon/evangelical juggernaut.
October 20th, 2009 at 7:47 pminvading Iraq was not conservative
October 20th, 2009 at 8:00 pmtax breaks for the rich is not conservative
unaffordable healthcare is not conservative
decline in wages is not conservative
sixty percent of companies paying no taxes is not conservative
destroying the planet is not conservative
preying on congressional pages is not conservative
unregulated derivative speculation is not conservative
unaffordable colleges is not conservative
Enron-style corporations are not conservative
$1.42 Trillion annual deficit is not conservative
backup says:
pete. okay. split the moderates between liberals and conservatives and you come up with
Liberals 42%, Conservatives 52%
That’s a lie. The majority of Americans side with liberals on every issue except the death penalty. Who told you that stupid number – Beck? LOL! You are one gullible little fool!
October 20th, 2009 at 8:02 pmbleepn. It’s the next question after the Republican/Democrat question used in this thread:
In this poll, question 908a:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_101909.html?sid=ST2009101902502
In this poll, it’s:
Liberal 23%, Moderate 36%, and Conservative 38%
If you split the Moderates: Liberal 31%, Conservatives 56%.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:07 pmI don’t think one can assume a 50-50 split among moderates and, as I said, the GOP seems to be hemorrhaging membership at least as fast as the Dems.
(NOTE: It’s typical for people to disown both parties approaching an “off year” election. It’s hard to judge this year on past events though because of the unprecedented number of crises, the sweeping change in party power, and the sheer rabidness of “discourse”.)
October 20th, 2009 at 8:07 pmMy bad: Liberal 41%, Conservative 56%
October 20th, 2009 at 8:08 pmpete. you’re right about arbitrarily splitting the moderates. I shouldn’t assume that.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:09 pmbackup says:
Ape-Man. Republicans have mismanaged the issues, but they could have people to represent. The next question after the party affiliation question (Republican 20%), Is Liberal/Moderate/Conservative question: (page 26)
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/4_090428_NBC-WSJ_Full.pdf
Liberals 24%, Moderates 35%, Conservatives 35%
Which means very little. Republicans have spent nearly a half billion dollars on “marketing” campaigns to make “liberal” a dirty word in the last 40 years. Most Americans have “liberal” attitudes and goals no matter how they label themselves.
You should really look at this little slice of reality instead!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/political-party-affiliation-states-blue-red-far.aspx
October 20th, 2009 at 8:11 pmbackup says:
My bad: Liberal 41%, Conservative 56%
WRONG! Most Americans “are” liberals.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:11 pmbackup says:
pete. you’re right about arbitrarily splitting the moderates. I shouldn’t assume that.
LOL! Of course you shouldn’t! You Conservative “liars” don’t know facts – you use your own personal “biases” and “opinions” as the basis of your stupid claims!
October 20th, 2009 at 8:12 pmbleepn. If you’re going to use gallup, you have to consider this:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/123497/Parties-Nearly-Tied-Congress-2010.aspx
October 20th, 2009 at 8:13 pmOnce again, b-kup, there’s no reason to assume a 50-50 split among moderates. And, you can’t simply assert that all who identify themselves as “conservative” are any more inclined to vote Republican than “moderates”. The unpopularity of the GOP is beginning to transcend the difference between “liberal”, “moderate”, and “conservative”.
The fact of the matter is that smart, rational, people know that there is no national GOP leadership. And, as nearly as I can tell, they have no young, unifying, new blood who can bring the party back from the brink. Even when they find one who might grow into the role she ends up squishing her boobs all over the internet.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:14 pmbackup says:
bleepn. If you’re going to use gallup, you have to consider this:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/123497/Parties-Nearly-Tied-Congress-2010.aspx
You mean a poll that shows Democrats still hold an advantage despite the GOP claims that they are top dog? LOL! You’re as stupid as ever morontastic!
October 20th, 2009 at 8:15 pmNice try dimwit. Most of the Independents are calling themselves Democrats. You can split it evenly if you want to, but the reality is 80% of this country (though some may think conservative) are not calling themselves republicans!
Get it now or do we have to do a Palin and get out the crayons for ya?
October 20th, 2009 at 8:17 pmYou might consider something other than Gallop that thought McCain was going to win the election! LOL!
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 15-18, 2009. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
“If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2010 were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?” If other/unsure: “Would you lean toward the Democratic candidate or toward the Republican candidate?” 10/15-18/09
Democratic Candidate 51
Republican Candidate 39
Good luck with that morontastic! LOL! ;)
October 20th, 2009 at 8:18 pmCBS News Poll. Oct. 5-8, 2009. N=829 adults nationwide. Results below are among registered voters.
“If the 2010 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?”
Democratic Candidate 46
Republican Candidate 33
Both newer polls, and just like 2008 Gallup is the one that doesn’t match.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:20 pmPretty soon the republicans will be referring to the Sarah Palin Poll on her Facebook page to get the “real” numbers!
October 20th, 2009 at 8:20 pmFranklin & Marshall College/Hearst Television poll. Sept. 15-21, 2009. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.
“If the 2010 elections for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for the House in your district?”
Democratic Candidate 43
Republican Candidate 30
Yet another 10+% spread for the Democrats.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:21 pmpete. I think I’m in agreement with you.
Republicans are losing elections because they aren’t representing conservatives.
I think a healthy two party system would be good.
What needs to happen a practical dismantlement and rebuild.
Nows as good a time as ever for Republicans, because it seems doubtful they’ll be winning elections without the overhaul.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:24 pmAny other stupid comment you’d like to make today captain moron – or are you done?
October 20th, 2009 at 8:24 pmbleepn. don’t get yourself worked up. I believe you poll data. I think the gallup poll is the exception.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:25 pmJust one, bleepn.
Have a good night.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:26 pmbackup says:
pete. I think I’m in agreement with you.
Republicans are losing elections because they aren’t representing conservatives.
LOL! No, Republicans are losing elections because they are “only” representing conservatives!
backup says:
I think a healthy two party system would be good.
That would require that you conservatives not be a bunch of anti-science racist fools… Anytime you’d like to join the 21st century – feel free?
backup says:
What needs to happen a practical dismantlement and rebuild.
What needs to happen is for the GOP to die like it did in the mid 1800s when it was the Whig party!
backup says:
Nows as good a time as ever for Republicans, because it seems doubtful they’ll be winning elections without the overhaul.
Now’s a good time for Republicans to realize you’re a bunch of out of touch lunatics! You first?
October 20th, 2009 at 8:27 pmbackup says:
bleepn. don’t get yourself worked up. I believe you poll data. I think the gallup poll is the exception.
Captain Moron, go f*** yourself you pathetic fool…
I don’t believe anything you post or write because you’re a lazy self righteous idiot that doesn’t deserve a platform to spew stupidity from…
I think you and your 21%ers need to stop screwing up our country.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:28 pmbackup says:
Any other stupid comment you’d like to make today captain moron – or are you done?
Just one, bleepn.
Have a good night.
Bite me you self righteous jerk.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:29 pmLie, lie, lie. They know they don’t have the numbers.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:34 pmGame of Life says:
Lie, lie, lie. They know they don’t have the numbers.
They hope if the repeat it often enough they can “wishcraft” it into being true… They’re just “children” in denial of reality as usual… ZZZZ…
October 20th, 2009 at 8:36 pmMitch McConnell may be counting his chickens before they hatch. The polls are showing that Obama is spending some political capital on health care reform. When the health care reforms are completed, Obama can expect a return on his wager.
McConnell may be trying to put the best face on a bad situation. They own a pig, or several. You can dress them up, put lipstick on them, but you still have pigs.
The question is, how much political capital are the Republicans burning to keep their base together?
October 20th, 2009 at 9:52 pmThe repugs are dead. They are the laughingstock of the world.
The only way these morans…well there isn’t a way for them to redeem themselves. Too many clown hall meetings, too many lobbyist, too man loons, too many stupids.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:34 pmAlthough the odds of McConnell being a total loser are close to even, the betting in Vegas is leaning toward McConnell being a simple moron.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:06 pmThey are all in serious denial. It’s going to be fun to see them kicked to the curb again in 2010.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:57 ambackup says:
bleepn. If you’re going to use gallup, you have to consider this:
Choose to believe Gallup at your own peril. Remember that they were caught during the presidential election surveying an equal number of Democrats and Republicans even though, at the time, the Democrats had a 13 point advantage. Gallup does not release the data behind their polls so we have no way of knowing if they are still doing so. My suspicion is that they are. Rasmussen and Gallup are both owned by very conservative corporations and they skew their polls to meet the demands of their constituency. They are consistently outliers.
As to the current state of the Republican party, the WSJ (Owned by Murdoch) recently had this to say:’
From the 9/22/09 WSJ Poll
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong Democrat/Republican)? (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent?
Strong Democrat..……….…………………. 22
Not very strong Democrat ………. ……. 9
Independent/lean Democrat..………... 10
Strictly Independent ……….………..……. 22
Independent/lean Republican ……….. 11
>>>>>> Not very strong Republican……….……… 8
>>>>>> Strong Republican ……….……….……… 10
Other (VOL)…..……….……….………….. 5
Not sure…………….……….…………….. 3
That says that only 18% of Americans call themselves Republicans. Pretty embarrassing from a conservative source like the WSJ.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:05 amThe answer is simple, Kay. He hates them, too.
KayInMaine says:
October 21st, 2009 at 2:37 amHow come McConnell never talks about his wife’s connection to Enron and how she hates the workers of America?
Maybe the Chinless wonder was looking only at Kentucky polls, or maybe he needs new glasses?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:39 amMcConnell is just giddy the UK Wildcats basketball season is only a few weeks away. He’s so busy getting together his tipoff party and topping Bunning on who has the better mint julep recipe that he’s already buzzed with that fresh mint on his breath when he is at any podium.
In other words: McConnell has checked out until 2010.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:31 amBut don’t get complacent. Things change, and the GOP still does have a decent size chunk of people who will vote their way.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:44 pmI’m thinking that Mitch oughta pull that poll out of his @ss and look at it again.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:33 pmDespite this, GOP cockiness about the midterms is widespread.
So long as they own the companies that count the votes (electronic, no-pap-er-trail voting machines) why SHOULDN’T they be cocky?
October 21st, 2009 at 8:16 pm