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ThinkFast PM: June 1, 2006

“Predictably, the left-wing press has run with the alleged massacre at Haditha … screaming about holding all of those involved accountable,” Bill O’Reilly said, introducing a segment on “Defending America.” “Why do so many rejoice when bad things happen to the USA?”

“President George W. Bush has been named the worst president in the last 61 years by American voters — with nearly twice the negative rating of Richard Nixon — in a new poll by Quinnipiac University.”

The Bush administration’s “world-class flip-flop” on Iran goes unnoticed.

“The environment and the economy have been totally misconstrued as incompatible. They are opposite sides of the same coin — you can’t consider one without the other.” — Treasury Secretary nominee Hank Paulson. More at Gristmill.

And F-I-N-A-L-L-Y: Gannett News Service is blogging on the 2006 Spelling Bee. The first round will be broadcast as a reality show on ABC, starting at 8 PM ET.

Media

Novak Selectively Edits Report to Defend Big Oil

Robert Novak’s column today is devoted to attacking an upcoming California ballot initiative, the Clean Alternative Energy Initiative, which would impose a severance tax on California oil producers to create a $4 billion investment fund “to help advance clean energy technologies.”

The thrust of Novak’s argument is that the initiative will harm California’s economy. For instance, he warns Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) against endorsing the measure since “it will be hammered home for the next five months that the oil initiative will mean higher prices and a slower economy.” Novak justifies this conclusion by citing a report by California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill:

[According to the report, the] severance tax could reduce property tax, income tax and gasoline tax revenues. The report continued that the tax “could result in a reduction in economic activity reflected . . . in a reduction in jobs.”

But Novak leaves off the critical last few words of that sentence. Here’s the actual report:

To the extent that the measure reduces investment in oil production, the measure could result in a reduction in economic activity, reflected, for example, in a reduction in jobs and/or capital purchases related to the oil industry.

Yes, it’s true: a ballot initiative designed to shift California away from polluting fossil fuels to clean renewable energy sources may result in a loss of jobs in the oil industry. This isn’t exactly a shocking revelation. The more important question is whether those lost jobs will be replaced by new jobs in the alternative energy sector, and it turns out the report Novak cites weighs in on that very question:

[U]sing revenues derived from the severance tax to invest in new technologies may spur economic development in California. … [T]he benefits to the economy from this development may offset, to an unknown extent, any negative economic impacts of the measure.

In fact, economists at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy estimate the initiative “will help create new industries, technologies, and tens of thousands of good paying jobs focused on renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean alternative fuels and clean alternative fuel vehicles.”

Needless to say, none of that made it into Novak’s column.

Politics

Climate Scientist: National Review ‘Misrepresented My Study Just Like CEI Did’

An advertisement by the Exxon-funded Competitive Enterprise Institute used a study to claim that the “Antarctic ice sheet is getting thicker, not thinner” as a way of casting doubt on global warming science.

The author of the study, Curt Davis, issued a press release in response calling CEI’s ad a “deliberate effort to confuse and mislead the public about the global warming debate.” Davis noted that his finding were limited to the interior of the eastern portion of Antarctica and more snow was “a predicted consequence of global warming” as the ocean temperature warms.

In a National Review cover story, Steorts used a similar tact with Davis’s study. He used it to suggest all of Antarctica was gaining ice and cast doubt on global warming science. Nevertheless, he has repeatedly insisted that Davis’s criticism of CEI do not apply to him:

Rehashing its objection to the way I used a study by Curt Davis, Think Progress offers, for the second time, a link to a document detailing Davis’s concerns with the way the Competitive Enterprise Institute cited that study…those criticisms aren’t applicable to my article.

ThinkProgress talked to Curt Davis this morning. This is what he had to say:

When [Steorts] quoted my study he misrepresented it just like CEI did because he reported this as representative of the entire Antarctic ice sheet. I did not report a result for the entire Antarctic ice sheet. We know from other studies the coastal areas are losing lots of ice.

In his first response to our criticism, Steorts acknowledged that he falsely claimed Davis’s study applied to all of Antarctica but said it was inconsequential. Doing some calculations, Steorts asserted that even if you factor in Western Antarctica and costal regions, the continent is gaining mass.

Davis told me that Steorts “did his own math. But his math his wrong.” He assumes that ice lost on the coast has the same density as snow gained in the interior of Eastern Antarctica. Actually, ice is about three times more dense. (Even if Steorts got his math right, the data he is using for the coasts isn’t reliable enough to make such a comparison. That’s why it wasn’t included in Davis’s study.)

How much deeper a hole is Steorts going to dig himself? Only time will tell.

UPDATE: Davis writes in to more precisely describe how Steorts got his math wrong: Read more

Politics

How The National Review Bastardizes James Hansen’s Global Warming Research

Jason Steorts is on the defensive about his National Review cover story on global warming “Scare of the Century.” Steorts’s article seeks to dismiss the conclusion of thousands of climate scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that global warming is real, the result of human activity and, if unmitigated, will have grave consequences.

In his latest response to our critique, Steorts enlists James Hansen – the NASA climate scientist who was famously muzzled by the Bush administration for his outspoken views about the dangers of global warming – to bolster his point. Steorts quotes Hansen as saying “the IPCC scenarios are unduly pessimistic.”

Steorts never links to Hansen’s actual writing, but to a blog written by fellow climate skeptics characterizing Hansen’s work. Here’s what James Hansen actually said:

There are reasons to believe that the IPCC scenarios are unduly pessimistic. First, they ignore changes in emissions, some already underway, due to concerns about global warming. Second, they assume that true air pollution will continue to get worse, with O3, CH4 and BC all greater in 2050 than in 2000. Third, they give short shrift to technology advances that can reduce emissions in the next 50 years.

In other words, Hansen’s article is a call to action. He argues that we can reduce the impact of global warming if we limit carbon dioxide emissions, control air pollution and adopt new technologies. Here’s how the same article begins:

Global warming is real, and the melting ice is an apt portent of potentially disastrous consequences… Study of these forcing agents shows that global warming can be slowed, and stopped, with practical actions that yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere.

Steorts uses the same tactic when he notes that Hansen “looked at the instrumental record and predicted 0.75 degrees of warming by 2050.” Actually Hansen predicts that amount of warming if the growth in air pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions can be stopped.

Steorts takes a couple of words from Hansen’s call to action totally out of context to argue that action is unnecessary. This isn’t a real argument, it’s a shell game.

Politics

ThinkFast AM: June 1, 2006

Molly English, the editor of the Syracuse New Times, is considering legal action against Karl Zinsmeister, Bush’s new domestic policy adviser, for altering quotations in a profile of him published by the paper in 2004. “I find it insulting and his excuse is awfully lame,” she said.

The three-month probe of the reported massacre in Haditha, expected to be released next week, will likely conclude not only that “some officers gave false information to their superiors,” but that “senior Marine commanders were derelict in their duty to monitor the actions of subordinates.” Army Maj. Gen. Eldon Bargewell, who led the probe, “declined to say whether he would characterize it as a ‘coverup.’”

The House Appropriations Committee is a revolving door for staff members who later go to work as lobbyists trying to influence their former bosses. At least 46 former aides on the powerful spending committee registered as lobbyists after leaving their congressional jobs since 1998, according to records compiled by the Center for Public Integrity.

Vice President Cheney “was dead set against” yesterday’s decision to offer the prospect of direct talks with Iran, one former Bush official said, but in the end “it came down to convincing Cheney and others that if we are going to confront Iran, we first have to check off the box” of trying talks.

African-Americans and Latinos are 30 percent more likely to receive higher rates for home loans than white borrowers despite similar credit scores and risk factors, according to a new study by the Center for Responsible Lending. Read more

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