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Yglesias

Boring Facts

David Gregory won’t stop saying the new Democratic House majority is going to be torn between its liberal leadership and the new “right of center” Democrats who’ve won races tonight and put them in the majority. Essentially every other MSM figure I’ve heard on television has said the same thing. But as Tom Schaller and Ben Adler have pointed out this is, um, just wrong.

It’s true that a few races have seen culturally conservative Democrats winning conservative districts but beyond Health Shuler there really aren’t very many clear-cut examples of this. The overwhelmingly predominant trend has been for moderate-to-liberal districts in the Northeast and Midwest to dump faux moderate Republicans in favor of fairly orthodox progressive Democrats. It’s regional realignment backlash, not a new Democratic thrust into Dixie.

Yglesias

Smells Like . . . Victory!

Democrats take House. My analysis: Awesome. Good work Nancy Pelosi, Rahm Emmannuel, and many fine candidates across the land.

Politics

ThinkFast: Election Day Edition

Running Election Day news and commentary from ThinkProgress:

– 1:34 AM ET: “MO SEN: Bill Kristol, on McCaskill’s new lead in MO: ‘It’s hard to believe that that lead’s not going to increase. I believe now that Missouri is going to go Democratic. … If you had to bet right now, you’d have to bet on a Democratic Senate’ (FNC).”

– 1:33 AM ET: California’s clean energy initiative was defeated.

– 12:38 AM ET: Races to watch — TN-Sen CNN projects Corker (R) over Ford Jr. (D).

– 12:06 AM ET: Races to watch — MT-Sen Jon Tester (D) leading Sen. Conrad Burns 56%-44% in early returns.

– 11:52 PM ET: Race to watch — VA-Sen CNN: Webb (D) takes lead over Allen (R).

– 11:50 PM ET: The end of Speaker Hastert — coming soon. National Review:

Hastert Seems to Be Conceding [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Scratch that–just preparing to concede later.

– 11:45 PM ET: Race to watch — AZ-5 “Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) appears headed for defeat. He’s trailing ex-Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell (D) 52-45% with 79% of precincts reporting.”

– 11:44 PM ET: “CNN projects that a proposed law in South Dakota to ban nearly all abortions will be defeated.”

– 11:36 PM ET: NYT reports: “Eliot Spitzer, the reform-minded state attorney general who crusaded against Wall Street corruption, was elected governor of New York tonight in a historic Democratic sweep of statewide offices.”

– 11:34 PM ET: Race to watch — NY-20 Rep. John Sweeney (R) has lost re-election.

– 11:31 PM ET: “MSNBC changes House prediction to 234 Dems and 201 GOPers (adding yet another seat for the Dems).”

– 11:28 PM ET: “This is shaping up as the Year of the Woman. Nancy Pelosi is poised to become the first female Speaker of the House and a record number of women will be in the U.S. Senate.”

– 11:26 PM ET: South Dakota’s extreme abortion ban headed for defeat.

– 11:22 PM ET: “Almost overlooked in the focus on Congress was the election of Deval Patrick (D) as governor of Massachusetts — only the second African-American to be elected as a governor in the nation’s history.”

– 11:19 PM ET: Race to watch — TN-Sen Bob Corker (R) maintains a slight lead over Harold Ford (D). Hotline notes:

While East TN GOP strongholds Hamilton (Chattanooga) and Knox Co have largely reported, Dem bulwarks Davidson (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) have still reported less than 50% of their precincts. Hamilton is Corker’s base (he was Mayor of Chattanooga) and Shelby is home to Ford, as well as the the biggest trove of black votes in the state.

– 11:16 PM ET: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has been reelected in California.

– 11:13 PM ET: Race to watch — AZ-Sen NBC News projects that Arizona Republican Jon Kyl will be re-elected to his U.S. Senate seat.

– 11:09 PM ET: “Ken Mehlman, speaking in third person about the war in Iraq: ‘The chairman is not out there saying I understand the nuance of policy’ (MSNBC).”

– 11:07 PM ET: Michael Steele (R) goes down fighting in the Maryland Senate race. “Steele spokesman Doug Heye tells NRO: ‘The Steele campaign is not conceding. Every vote must be counted.’”

– 11:01 PM ET: “CNN and MSNBC call NC 11 for Heath Shuler (D) over Rep. Charles Taylor (R).”

– 10:58 PM ET: The Missouri stem cell ballot initiative is trailing 47% to 53%.

– 10:55 PM ET: Tim Mahoney (D-FL) has won Mark Foley’s former district.

– 10:45 PM ET: Race to watch — TX-22 Nick Lampson (D) is leading Sheila Sekula-Gibbs (R) in the ex-Rep. Tom DeLay’s former district.

– 10:42 PM ET: Minnesota voters elected Keith Ellison, a black Democrat, as the first Muslim in Congress on Tuesday.

– 10:39 PM ET: “With about 10 percent of the vote in, Tom Reynolds, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, holds an eight-point edge over Democrat Jack Davis in the 26th District, where the results figure to say something about the locals’ response to Reynolds’ role in the Mark Foley affair.”

– 10:38 PM ET: Another minimum wage ballot initiative passes in Nevada.

– 10:35 PM ET: Race to watch — MO-Sen Sen. Jim Talent (R) currently has a 12% lead over Claire McCaskill (D). Results here.

– 10:30 PM ET: Fox News has called that Zack Space (D) has won in OH 18, the district formally occupied by ex-Rep. Bob Ney (R). Also, Reps. Don Sherwood (R-PA) and Curt Weldon (R-PA) have lost re-election.

– 10:27 PM ET: Current balance of power: Democrats 3 seats away from controlling Senate, need 7 to take House.

– 10:22 PM ET: “Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), who saw the homes of friends and family raided in October, and Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA), whose affair became public when his ex-mistress filed a lawsuit alleging abuse,” are both trailing their Democratic opponents in early returns.

– 10:18 PM ET: Race to watch — FL-16 Tim Mahoney (D) has pulled ahead of Joe Negron (R) in Mark Foley’s former district.

– 10:13 PM ET: CBS’s Bob Schieffer: “We knew this was going to be a bad night for the Republicans, but it may turn out to be their worst nightmare.”

– 10:11 PM ET: South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have all approved gay marriage bans.

– 10:08 PM ET: Race to watch — CT-5 Chris Murphy (D) has defeated Rep. Nancy Johnson (R).

– 10:05 PM ET: Race to watch — NH-2 “UnionLeader.com has learned that Republican U.S. Rep. Charles Bass is preparing to call Paul Hodes and congratulate the Democrat on his victory.”

– 10:01 PM ET: FNC’s Baier reports the senior White House staff “just ordered chicken tenders,” anticipating a long night. Read more

Yglesias

¡Sandinista!

I gather that we’re supposed to understand this as a setback for democracy, though I don’t really understand why. One would think that power alternating peacefully between the former parties to a violent civil war would be considered a triumph of democracy.

Politics

Exit Polls

In a “stark” “contrast” with 2004, the leaked exit polls are showing very good news for the Democrats. I’ll believe it when I see something more solid. Fool me once, and so forth.

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