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Yglesias

Iran: It’s Back

Good times; the return of the Iran debate. People should listen to Ray Takeyh rather than, say, Joshua Muravchik. Interestingly, Muravchik is willing to follow neoconservatism’s war is always the answer approach to some outside-the-box conclusions:

After the Bolshevik takeover of Russia in 1917, a single member of Britain’s Cabinet, Winston Churchill, appealed for robust military intervention to crush the new regime. His colleagues weighed the costs — the loss of soldiers, international derision, revenge by Lenin — and rejected the idea.

Apparently, this was a bad idea on the part of the British government. And, no doubt, Soviet Communism proved to be a very bad thing indeed. On the other hand, the western powers actually did intervene, sending troops into Russia and giving aid to the White forces in the Russian Civil War. It didn’t work out. To be sure, they could have tried intervening even more forcefully (the neocon method of saving all failed military ventures) but I don’t see any real reason to think this could have worked out. Assemble a huge army (in the immediate aftermath of world war one, mind you) to march on Moscow and then . . . what? Install a puppet regime? And occupy the country — a big country — for how long, exactly? And, needless to say, it’s not as if efforts to conquer Russia have some kind of brilliant historical track record.

Climate Progress

Global Warming = Insomniac Bears

bear.jpgAh, to be a bear. Normally they sleep the winter away and prior to their hibernation eat and eat to put on weight, as much as 400 pounds. Makes you feel better about Thanksgiving, no?

But, thanks to global warming, their natural cycle is getting disturbed. Reuters reports:

Insomniac bears are roaming the forests of southwestern Siberia scaring local people, as the weather stays too warm for the animals to fall into their usual winter slumber.

Insomniac bears?! Imagine how grumpy you would get if your annual nap were seriously postponed. Fortunately, there has been sufficient food supply and so no attacks, but local environmentalists are keeping a close eye on the situation.

Who knows what other strange impacts of global warming will have on the planet? But for now, if you see a forest ranger filling a prescription for mega-doses of Ambien, you’ll know why.

Yglesias

One! Last! Push!

I have absolutely no idea what the people advocating for “one last push” in Iraq, with an influence of however many additional troops can be temporarily “surged” into Baghdad are thinking. One last push for what? A higher troop concentration in some particular area might get whatever disfavored elements are around to lie low or head elsewhere for a while, but it’s not as if we’re going to have the mapower to go house-by-house through Iraq and scrub the country of weapons. The various armed factions in Iraq are far too embedded, socially and politically, in the fabric of Iraqi society. This just seems like a desperation pundit play to avoid admitting that the “left” position — we should leave Iraq — is, in fact, the correct one.

Politics

Rove is here to stay.

Contrary to recent rumors, “White House officials say President Bush has every intention of keeping Mr. Rove on through the rest of his term,” the New York Times reports. But the White House “seems aware of the apparently limited influence in Congress of Mr. Rove. … Joshua B. Bolten, the White House chief of staff, was dispatched to the Hill this week to hold meetings with members, suggesting that he is likely to play a more prominent role.”

Security

McCain: Sending More Troops Would ‘Absolutely…Be Terrible’ For Military, Risks ‘Broken Army’

Today on ABC’s This Week, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) acknowledged that his plan to escalate the Iraq war by sending at least 20,000 more troops would “put a terrible strain on the Army and Marine Corps.” “Absolutely, it would be terrible,” he said, “we’re going to be asking people to go back again and again, maybe even extend their tours.” McCain said he “saw a broken Army in 1973″ and didn’t want to see another. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/mccainbroken.320.240.flv]

As ThinkProgress has noted, McCain’s call for escalation would exacerbate the deteriorating situation in Iraq and would only further damage U.S. national security. Here’s at least two reasons why:

1) No troops to send. “Sending more troops to Iraq would, at the moment, threaten to break our nation’s all-volunteer Army and undermine our national security.” McCain suggests enlarging the force to send them to Iraq, an idea that is implausible to carry out over the short-term and would damage the military’s ability to recruit over the long-term.

2) The insurgency would grow more inflamed. “A more visible presence of U.S. troops risks further stoking the flames of the insurgency by feeding perceptions of long-term U.S. occupation among many Iraqis.” The recent effort to increase troop numbers in Baghdad has only increased violence. A recent poll of Iraqis indicated that support for attacks on US-led forces has grown to a majority position — now six in ten — a number sure to increase if more U.S. troops are put on the ground.

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Politics

Hersh: Bush, Cheney Stovepiping Intelligence On Iran, Hiding Information From CIA

On CNN, New Yorker journalist Seymour Hersh reported that a new CIA assessment concludes that “there’s no evidence Iran is doing anything that puts them close to a bomb.” Despite the intelligence agency’s conclusion, Hersh reports that the White House is still aggressively moving ahead with preparations for a military conflict with Iran.

As part of the White House’s preparations for Iran, Hersh says President Bush and Vice President Cheney are “stovepiping” intelligence and keeping information provided by the Israelis hidden from the CIA.

The Israelis are telling the White House, according to Hersh’s new article “The Next Act,” that they have a reliable agent inside Iran who reports that the nation is working on a trigger for a bomb. “Of course the people in the CIA want to know who [the agent] is, obviously,” Hersh said. “They certainly want to know what other evidence he has of actual making of a warhead. This is the internecine fight that’s going on — the same fight, by the way, that we had before Iraq.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/hershagent.320.240.flv]

Prior to the Iraq war, the White House set up intelligence stovepipes to “get information they wanted directly to the top leadership.” Cheney and company relied on information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group headed by Ahmad Chalabi. “Chalabi’s defector reports were…flowing from the Pentagon directly to the Vice-President’s office, and then on to the President, with little prior evaluation by intelligence professionals.”

State Dept. intelligence expert Greg Thielmann said that prior to the Iraq war that “garbage was being shoved straight to the President.” A U.S. official confirmed that defectors from Chalabi’s organization “had provided suspect information to numerous Western intelligence agencies. ‘It’s safe to say he tried to game the system,’ the official said.”

Hersh’s article suggests a similar breakdown in the intelligence process is happening with regards to Iran and may open to door to possible intelligence manipulation.

Full transcript: Read more

Security

Kristol: I Fear Political Support For Iraq ‘Will Crumble…Among Republicans’ In Next 3 Months

This morning on Fox New Sunday, Bill Kristol said that that the current Iraq strategy of “Iraqification” is “failing” and has been “discredited.” Noting that CentCom commander Gen. John Abizaid said he finds “despair” about Iraq when he comes to Washington, Kristol said he was “very worried” that if conditions in Iraq did not improve within 2 to 3 months, “political support will crumble not among Democrats, but among Republicans. Gone.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/kistoliraq.320.240.flv]

Full transcript: Read more

Politics

Zakaria: McCain’s Plan For More Troops ‘Just Willing More American Deaths’

This Morning on ABC, commentator and foreign policy scholar Fareed Zarkaria slammed John McCain’s plan to send more U.S. troops to Iraq, saying it “will not work.” Zakaria explained that “we have enough troops” but the Iraqi government won’t let them “go after the militias.”

According to Zakaria, sending more U.S. troops to Iraq in this context is “just willing more American deaths.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/moretroops.320.240.flv]

Transcript: Read more

Politics

McCain Flip-Flops, Supports Immediate Reversal of Roe v. Wade

In 1999, the “moderate” version of John McCain said that overturning Roe v. Wade would be dangerous for women and he would not support it, even in “the long term.” Here’s McCain in the San Francisco Chronicle:

I’d love to see a point where it is irrelevant, and could be repealed because abortion is no longer necessary. But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade, which would then force X number of women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations.

This morning on ABC, McCain — now aggressively courting the likes of Jerry Falwell — expressed his unequivocal support for overturning Roe v. Wade. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/mccainabortion.320.240.flv]

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