Washington Post editorial page highlights some interesting new research:
An economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, [Roger] Stern contends that the Iranian oil industry is actually in something of a death spiral. Iran has been missing its OPEC quota of late, and while high oil prices have masked the decline by keeping revenue up, production has been declining. Higher domestic energy demand in Iran combined with difficulty in attracting foreign investment and other economic problems, he argues, make a rapid decline in oil exports likely — ending in the “extinction” of Iranian oil exports in 2014-15.
The Post offers up the bloggish observation that “We don’t know whether Mr. Stern is right.” I don’t know whether or not he’s right, either, and I can’t find the paper where Stern makes that argument. In this article, however, Stern winds up being quoted as having policy prescriptions I agree with.