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Climate Progress

Chapter Seven Excerpt: The Electrifying Solution

This analysis suggests that the United States could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by between 10 and 40 percent of the 1990 level at very low cost. Some reductions may even be a net savings if the proper policies are implemented.

–U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 1991

What are the winning strategies for avoiding climate catastrophe, for avoiding Hell and High Water? This chapter examines the solutions for the power sector. Amazingly, with the right technology strategy over the next two decades, we could cut U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by two-thirds without increasing the total electric bill of either consumers or businesses.

Politics

AEI Letter Offers $10,000 Payments Only For Views Critical Of The IPCC Report

On Friday, The Guardian reported that the American Enterprise Institute — which has received more than $1.6 million from ExxonMobil — was offering to pay global warming skeptics to speak out in an effort to push back on the new IPCC climate change study. The IPCC report states that it is “very likely” that man-made greenhouse gases were the main cause of the Earth’s recent warming trend.

The article reported that one American scientist — Steve Schroeder, a professor at Texas A&M university — turned down the offer citing fears that the report could easily be misused for political gain. “You wouldn’t know if some of the other authors might say nothing’s going to happen, that we should ignore it, or that it’s not our fault,” he said.

A copy of the AEI letter can be read HERE.

Kenneth Green and Steven Hayward, the AEI employees who sent the letter, claimed they were soliciting views that would highlight both the strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC report. But, in the letter, Green and Hayward clearly indicate they are only seeking views that criticize the IPCC. They write:

As with any large-scale “consensus” process, the IPCC is susceptible to self-selection bias in its personnel, resistant to reasonable criticism and dissent, and prone to summary conclusions that are poorly supported by the analytical work of the complete Working Group reports.

[...]

We are hoping to sponsor a paper…that thoughtfully explores the limitations of climate model outputs as they pertain to the development of climate policy.

[...]

AEI will offer an honoraria of $10,000. … We intend to hold a series of small conferences and seminars in Washington and elsewhere…for which we can provide travel expenses and additional honoraria if you are able to participate.

Indeed, the letter reveals that the oil lobbyists at AEI are quite familiar with “self-selection bias.”

Politics

Limbaugh: Stranded Polar Bears Are ‘Just Playing Around…Like Your Cat Goes To Its Litter Box’

picture-2.pngThis week, the UK Daily Mail published photos of polar bears stranded on ice floes in the Arctic.

Determined to deny the existence of global warming, Rush Limbaugh said on Friday that the bears were “just playing around…just like your cat goes to its litter box”:

This whole thing is totally misleading. They’re not even stranded on an ice floe that’s broken apart. They’re just out there just playing around. They’re just out there. You know, just like your cat goes to its litter box. When’s the last time your cat got stranded in its litter box? Just like your pit bull attacks and kills the neighbor’s baby horse, whatever, I mean these things happen. It’s called nature.

This isn’t “nature.” It’s human-induced global warming. In recent months, scientists have found that:

– Polar bears “are drowning because climate change is melting the Arctic ice shelf. Researchers were startled to find bears having to swim up to 60 miles across open sea to find food. They are being forced into the long voyages because the ice floes from which they feed are melting, becoming smaller and drifting farther apart.”

– “Pregnant polar bears in Alaska, which spend most of their lives on sea ice, are increasingly giving birth on land, according to researchers who say global warming is probably to blame.”

– Polar bears “may be turning to cannibalism because longer seasons without ice keep them from getting to their natural food.”

In December, the Bush administration “decided to propose listing the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, putting the U.S. government on record as saying that global warming could drive one of the world’s most recognizable animals out of existence.”

Digg It!

Culture

An Oversight

So . . . I had all my MP3′s backed up before the recent unpleasantness with erasing my hard drive. Good for me. I realize, however, that I didn’t back up any of my iTunes playlists. Meaning I now need to recreate them. Which turns out to be a pretty daunting task when you have 6,000+ hours of music on file. So keep that in mind . . . back the playlists up, too!

Yglesias

The Hawk Nexus

What Glenn Greenwald said. And also what Ezra Klein said. Let me note, however, that there’s a kind of dual madness to the binational US-Israeli axis of hawkishness on Iran. On the one hand, we’re pretty clearly being enjoined to either launch a war with Iran largely on behalf of Israeli security or else to support an Israeli initiation of war which, clearly, would be undertaken with Israeli security in mind. This is because the Iranian nuclear program is (rightly) seen as problematic for the United States, but fundamentally more problematic for Israel which has to live in the neighborhood.

The trouble, obviously, is that this isn’t actually a good way to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. What’s more, as M.J. Rosenberg points out the view that the Iranian nuclear program is, from the Iranian point of view, all about Israel is just mistaken. “In fact, it is primarily about the United States.” Iran, after all, would be crazy to spend more time thinking about Israel, its small high-quality military with limited power-projection capabilities, and its medium-sized nuclear arsenal than it does thinking about Israel’s giant far-off ally that’s constantly invading neighboring countries, has a huge military, and an enormous nuclear arsenal. As Rosenberg writes “That is why many believe that negotiations would be productive. In negotiations with the United States, Iran can demand recognition and security guarantees from Washington while we can demand an end to nuclear bomb development, an end to their meddling in Iraq, an end to support of Hezbollah and endorsement of negotiations as a means to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

In short, American unwillingness to negotiate is seriously compromising Israeli security. It’s only once this is taken as a given that the United States is suddently expected to act militarily on Israel’s behalf when timely diplomacy could have achieved a better result at lower cost. My suspicion continues to be that “pro-Israel” outfits and their funders on some level want the Middle East to be perpetually unstable and Israel to be perpetually at risk. Hawkish American Jews, after all, pay few if any of the costs of such a dynamic. In the meantime, it gives some meaning to their hobbyist’s enthusiasm for advocacy on behalf of Israel.

Media

IPCC Versus AEI

You see below the projections of global warming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN-sponsored scientific organization dedicated to looking at such matters. Reason‘s Ronald Bailey writes that “Details like sea level rise will continue to be debated by researchers, but if the debate over whether or not humanity is contributing to global warming wasn’t over before, it is now.”

But not everyone agrees. The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, for example, will give you $10,000 if you produce essays that “thoughtfully explore the limitations of climate model outputs” since in their view, the IPCC is “resistant to reasonable criticism and dissent and prone to summary conclusions that are poorly supported by the analytical work.” Coincidentally enough, AEI happens to receive large doses of funding from the energy industry. The real question is why media outlets continue to treat the output of people who work at AEI as some kind of near-substitute for actual scholarship.

Yglesias

Open Source Textbooks

Tyler Cowen and Michael Brandl write a bit about high textbook prices. At the end of the day, it seems to me that in both the higher and lower education contexts, the case for open source textbooks is strong. Read a bit here about the California Open Source Textbook Project, which has a K-12 focus. The same logic, however, applies most everywhere. In the college context, obviously, some books are going to be so specialized that I’m not sure this would work. But for anything used in grade school, and any of your big, generic college subjects you should be able to do it.

Security

Bush’s Escalation: Doing The Militias’ Dirty Work For Them?

mehdi armyThe latest National Intelligence Estimate’s key judgments reached the same conclusion that the Center for American Progress reached last October: that Iraq was worse than simply a civil war because there are at least four major internal conflicts ongoing.

The NIE identifies Muqtada Al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army as one of the “very effective accelerators” of Iraq’s civil war. Reporting from Baghdad, Tom Lasseter of McClatchy Newspapers said that many American junior officers are convinced that the Bush military escalation in Iraq will actually hand over portions of Baghdad to Iraqi security forces infiltrated by the Mehdi Army.

Infiltration is a major problem that President Bush’s plan fails to adequately address. The independent Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction reported earlier this week that U.S. commander estimates that 20-25% of the Iraqi national police “needed to be weeded out.”

In effect, the Bush escalation plan risks handing over territory to forces loyal to Shiite radical cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, further accelerating Iraq’s civil war and doing nothing to bridge the growing divides among Iraqis.

Brian Katulis and Peter Juul

Culture

Unreasonable

Apparently, there’s a movie coming to a theater near me soon all about Ralph Nader. Like most Gore 2000 voters, I bear no small level of bitterness toward Nader and those who supported him or voted for him. Certainly, I think the events of the past six years have amply demonstrated that there both is a dime’s worth of difference between the two major political parties and that a dime can buy you an awful lot.

On the other hand, one of the memes floating about in the Nadersphere has, I think, been vindicated: Namely the basically Leninist idea that a Democratic loss and a period of Republican governance would pull the Democrats in a more progressive direction in terms of, for example, questioning “Washington Consensus” globalization. At the time, that argument didn’t make sense to me. And in some important ways I still don’t think it makes a ton of sense logically. But it does seem to be what’s happened. Now, was that a price worth paying for the dead in Iraq, the torture, etc.? I don’t really think so.

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