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REPORT: Putting U.S. Troop Casualty Statistics In Perspective

deathsAt least 73 U.S. troops are reported to have died in Iraq this past month. The numbers are a decline from the all-time highs of 108, 131, and 117 from the previous three months.

Media reports herald the statistics as encouraging and as demonstrating “steady progress” in Iraq. Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno said that the lower death toll was a “positive sign.”

According to icasualties.org, at least 3,653 U.S. troops have died in the 53 months that the war has been going on — a per monthly rate of nearly 69 U.S. troop casualties. Thus, the current month’s total still exceeds the average monthly casualty rate of the entire war.

Moreover, 73 is also greater than the average monthly casualty rate of each of the first four years of the war. A look at the monthly U.S. casualty rates over each of these years:


YEAR          CASUALITY
RATE
2003 48.6 per month
2004 70.8 per month
2005 70.5 per month
2006 68.5 per month
2007 92.9 per month

Statistics compiled from icasualties.org

The AP notes that “the daily average for U.S. troop deaths in July was at least 2.35 — higher than the daily average of 2.25 last year, and remarkably consistent with average daily casualties in 2005, at 2.32, and 2004, at 2.33.”

While U.S. troop casualties have fallen, reports indicate Iraqi deaths are rising again in Baghdad to pre-surge levels.

Politics

McCain And Cheney Use O’Hanlon-Pollack Op-Ed To Justify Continuing Escalation

mccainAfter Brookings analysts Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack published a report in the New York Times yesterday arguing that “we are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms,” National Review convened a symposium of pro-war cheerleaders to praise the op-ed.

Of the eight war backers in the symposium, the most distinguished contributor is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who — like the Brookings analysts — has previously exploited Baghdad trips to portray a rosy vision of Iraq. McCain used the op-ed to bash war critics:

Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack have uncovered a truth that seems to escape congressional Democrats: General Petraeus’s new strategy has shown remarkable progress. [...]

I cannot guarantee success. But I do guarantee that, should Congress fail to sustain the effort, and should it pay no heed to the lessons drawn by Mr. Pollack and Mr. O’Hanlon, then America will face a historic and terrible defeat. Such a defeat, with its enormous human and strategic costs, will unfold unless we do all in our power to prevent it. I, for one, will continue to do just that.

In his interview with Larry King, Vice President Cheney said “don’t take it from me” that the escalation is working, but rather he cited O’Hanlon and Pollack, individuals whom he called “strong critics of the war”:

Look at the piece that appeared yesterday in The New York Times — not exactly a friendly publication — but a piece by Mr. O’Hanlon and Mr. Pollack on the situation in Iraq. They’re just back from visiting over there. They both have been strong critics of the war, both worked in the prior administration; but now saying that they think there’s a possibility, indeed, that we could be successful.

The enthusiastic parroting of the Times’ op-ed by pro-war dead-enders such as McCain and Cheney is a quintessential example of how left-of-center experts like O’Hanlon and Pollack provide political cover for the president’s failing Iraq policy. The supposedly reasonable assessments of these two analysts have been enabling the right-wing since before the invasion of Iraq.

Politics

Rumsfeld to appear before Congress tomorrow.

The House Oversight Committee reports that in a late breaking development, Donald Rumsfeld will appear tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. for a hearing entitled “The Tillman Fratricide: What the Leadership of the Defense Department Knew.” The following witnesses will testify:

The Honorable Donald Rumsfeld
Former Secretary of Defense

Gen. Richard B. Myers (Retired)
Former Chair, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Gen. John P. Abizaid (Retired)
Former Commander, U.S. Central Command

Gen. Bryan Douglas Brown (Retired)
Former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command

Lt. Gen. Philip R. Kensinger, Jr. (Retired)*
(supboena issued/not confirmed)
Former Commander, U.S. Army Special Operations Command

A previous witness list had suggested Rumsfeld would not attend.

Media

Cleavagegate, The Madness Continues

I can’t believe this CNN segment ever aired, but I think Ann Friedman does an excellent job:

In all seriousness, though, enough is enough. One has to assume, though, that this kind of thing is pretty great for Hillary Clinton’s primary campaign, since it certainly does make me feel like, hey, maybe if we had a woman actually serve as president for a term or two the press would get over their case of the sillies.

Politics

Specter: McConnell Letter Doesn’t Cut It, Waiting To Hear Directly From Gonzales

Yesterday, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), the ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, gave the Bush administration until noon today “to resolve the controversy over apparent contradictions in Attorney General Alberto Gonzales’s congressional testimony.”

Missing the noon deadline, the White House released a letter this afternoon from Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, which stated “one particular aspect” of the NSA’s domestic spying program, “and nothing more, was publicly acknowledged by the President and described in December of 2005.” Gonzales was also supposed to provide a letter of clarification to Specter by noon, but it has not been sent.

On CNN’s The Situation Room this evening, Specter briefly responded to McConnell’s letter, saying “I am not prepared to say” Gonzales didn’t lie “until we get Attorney General Gonzales’ letter.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/07/specter_did_letter.320.240.flv]

Host Wolf Blitzer asked Specter how he would respond to an unsatisfactory letter from Gonzales. “If you’re not satisfied with that letter, I assume your conclusion will be like other members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he did lie,” said Blitzer.

“Well, if he doesn’t have a plausible explanation then he hasn’t leveled with the Committee, that’s right,” responded Specter.

Transcript: Read more

Politics

VoteVets launches Tillman petition.

The White House refuses to release documents about Army Ranger Pat Tillman’s death, citing executive privilege. VoteVets asks that you sign a letter informing the President that this is not acceptable.

Climate Progress

Hansen on “civil disobedience”

I won’t be reprinting Hansen’s e-mails in their entirety anymore, since he has now begun posting them online. For completeness’s sake, here is the rest of the July 23rd email (the whole thing is here):

My statement “It seems to me that young people, especially, should be doing whatever is necessary to block construction of dirty (no CCS) coal-fired power plants” raised a concern (of someone in Ireland) that “such a call amounts to incitement to civil disobedience”.

Read more

Politics

‘Can you understand English?’

CNN reporter Dana Bash confronts Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) in the hallway with a microphone. Bash reported that Stevens had been attempting to escape reporters all day. When she finally caught up to him, he refused to answer Bash’s questions, saying “Can you understand English? That’s the only statement I’m going to make.” Watch it:

SEN. TED STEVENS (R-AK): I put out a statement and I’m not saying anything to anybody beyond that statement.

BASH: Can you say, sir, why the federal agents went to your House or what they took?

STEVENS: Can you understand English? That’s the only statement I’m going to make.

BASH: I do understand that sir, but obviously this is a very important issue, when federal agents and IRS agents come to the home of a U.S. senator.

STEVENS: I understand you’re recording this, but I told you again I made the statement. It’s issued, that’s what my lawyers told me to say, and that’s all I’m going to say.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/07/danaonhulk.320.240.flv]

Atrios notes that Stevens’ legally parsed statement suggests he only paid home reconstruction bills “that were presented to him.” The statement discounts bills that may have been paid by others that never reached Stevens.

UPDATE: Stevens has threatened to place a hold on the “Democratic-drafted ethics legislation just passed by the House and expected on the Senate floor by week’s end. The senator told a closed session of fellow Republicans today, including Vice President Dick Cheney, that he was upset that the measure would interfere with his travel to and from Alaska — and vowed to block it.”

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