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Yglesias

Clinton and Webb

From Hillary Clinton’s office:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton today announced that she is co-sponsoring legislation introduced by Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) that prohibits the use of funds for military operations against Iran without explicit Congressional authorization (S. 759).

The political instincts that led her to vote for Lieberman-Kyle remain troubling, but this is obviously a big step forward.

Yglesias

Polling on Iraq

070910-F-7418E-111%201.jpg

Ed Kilgore surveys a recent Washington Post/ABC poll with hard to interpret results and concludes:

Pollsters need to figure out ways to (a) test the Iraq issues actually facing Congress; (b) include in questions a few basic facts about troop withdrawals (i.e., that Bush is only talking about withdrawing “surged” troops) and funding levels (i.e., how much money buys what strategy); and (c) test some dynamic scenarios involding actions by Congress and reactions by Bush (i.e., a protracted funding fight).

Until that happens, new polls on Iraq will provide grist for spin, but not for any honest assessment of where the public is at present.

I don’t think that’s really right. Sometimes your measurements don’t produce clear results because the measurement method isn’t clear enough. Other times, though, they don’t produce clear results because there’s nothing to see clearly. Oftentimes in politics, I think politicians would like to believe that there’s an extremely clear-cut median voter view about some difficult issue, because then they can all go adopt that view, and come what may they’ll say they were doing what they had to do because of public opinion. But realistically if the public’s answers to ABC’s questions about Iraq are incoherent, that’s probably because the key “swing” group of people actually has fuzzy, somewhat incoherent thoughts about Iraq.

Under the circumstances, what politicians ought to do is:

  1. Figure out what they think is the correct Iraq policy.
  2. Figure out what they think is the most persuasive way to sell that policy to the public.
  3. Pray it works.

At the end of the day, I think a lot of politicians actually underrate the considerable virtue of adopting a position that’s correct on the merits. If you think the merits through, then you’ll have a principled basis for answering a variety of different questions and responding to different sorts of attacks. And, of course, the election happens over a year from now so if you say something that’s correct, and time proves you correct, then you’ll look prescient and be able to say you took a bold stance and have the courage to lead. Polling data’s nice when there’s clear and convincing evidence of firm public conviction about something, but I just don’t see that on Iraq. The search for better polling mostly seems like an effort to evade the substantive responsibilities of political office.

US Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Dallas

Politics

Eight states sue Bush over SCHIP.

A coalition of eight states — New Jersey, Maryland, Arizona, California, Illinois, New Hampshire, New York and Washington — have sued the Bush administration, objecting to new rules that “make it harder for them to provide coverage to children in middle-income families”

Politics

Lindsey Graham Sets 90 Day Deadline For Iraq

grahamIn February, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) warned against setting any kind of deadline for Iraq. Appearing on Fox News Sunday, he said, “I cannot guarantee you success, but I can promise you this: The day you set timelines and deadlines, it’s lost in Iraq.”

Nine months later, Graham is setting a timetable for Iraq:

Graham told Time Wednesday that the Iraqi leaders have 90 days to start resolving their political differences with real legislative agreements or face a change in strategy by the U.S. “If they can’t do it in 90 days,” he said, “it means the major players don’t want to.” [...]

Graham, who is up for re-election in 2008, said he will not wait forever. “If they can’t pull it together in the next 90 days,” he said, “I don’t think they are ever gonna do it.” He followed that prediction with a promise: “If they don’t deliver in 90 days, I will openly say the chances for political reconciliation are remote.” [...]

“If they can’t do it by the end of the year,” he said, “how do you justify a continued presence?”

Graham’s bark doesn’t seem to have any bite, however. His stern words of warning to the Iraqi government are not accompanied by any repercussions. Time reports Graham “would not elaborate on what kind of plan he would push if the Iraqis fail to meet the deadline.”

For months, Graham has been busy spinning and defending the “surge.” In April, on a trip to Iraq, he famously quipped about the “progress” being witnessed in Iraq: “We went to the market and were just really warmly welcomed. I bought five rugs for five bucks.” Just last month, he said we’re “kicking ass” in Iraq. Now all of sudden, Graham — who is up for re-election in ’08 — is in a state of desperation over the lack of progress.

Politics

Judge rules Bush can’t block presidential records.

Today, a federal judge “invalided part of a 2001 order by President Bush allowing former presidents to review executive documents before they can be released under open records laws.” The AP reports:

bushreading3.jpg U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly ruled that the presidential order eliminated the discretion of the National Archives to control the release historical records. She said the executive order allowed former presidents to delay the release of those records “presumably indefinitely.”

The ruling was made in a lawsuit filed by the American Historical Association and other organizations, which argued that Bush’s Executive Order 13,233 was an “impermissible exercise of the executive power.”

A bill that would overturn the order is pending in the Senate.

Politics

McCain faces heat over religious remarks.

Several Jewish organizations criticized Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for stating that he would prefer a Christian president over someone of a different faith. The American Jewish Council argued McCain should not be imposing religious tests for public office. “To argue that America is a Christian nation, or that persons of a particular faith should by reason of their faith not seek high office, puts the very character of our country at stake,” Jeffrey Sinensky, the group’s general counsel, said Monday in a statement.”

Politics

Blackwater Fired First In 84 Percent Of ‘Escalation Of Force’ Incidents Since 2005

On Sept. 16, private security contractors working for Blackwater USA opened fire in a crowded traffic circle in Central Baghdad, killing 11 Iraqis. Since the incident, Blackwater and the State Department have insisted that the guards were responding to a “hostile attack.”

But a comprehensive report by Iraq’s Ministry of Interior, released last week, concluded that the Blackwater employees “fired an unprovoked barrage in the shooting” and that the “company is considered 100 percent guilty” for the incident.

Newsweek’s Kevin Peraino, who has had access to “an extensive evidence file put together by the Iraqi National Police,” told CNN today that the evidence is “largely consistent with what the Iraqi officials…have been saying all along”:

They said that Blackwater, the firing was unprovoked. They don’t know why it happened. All the witness statements that I saw, that they had collected there, said that there was no apparent reason for the firing to begin.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/10/BlackwaterNewsweek.320.240.flv]

Though the State Department has yet to issue it’s own incident report, Blackwater has a history of firing first that would appear to support Peraino and the Iraqi government’s claims.

In a memo released today, House Oversight And Government Reform Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) reveals that of the 195 “escalation of force” incidents Blackwater has been involved in since 2005, Blackwater forces fired first in over 160 of them:

According to the Blackwater incident reports received by the Committee, Blackwater personnel have participated in 195 incidents in Iraq from January 1,2005, through September 12, 2007 , that involved firearms discharges by Blackwater personnel. This is an average of 1.4 incidents per week. In 32 of those incidents, Blackwater personnel were returning fire after an attack, while on 163 occasions (84% of the shooting incidents), Blackwater personnel were the first to fire.

Despite the controversy around Blackwater, the Pentagon recently awarded the firm a new contract worth $92 million. Tomorrow, Blackwater CEO Erik Prince will testify before Waxman’s committee tomorrow.

Read more highlights from Waxman’s memo here and here.

UPDATE: The Oversight Committee’s staff also found evidence that the State Department “helped create an environment where Blackwater guards could use deadly force with minimum reprisal.”

Politics

Batiste: Rush’s Murtha attack ‘dismisses’ his ‘validity.’

On his radio show on Friday, Rush Limbaugh elaborated on his comment that service members who support withdrawal from Iraq are “phony soldiers,” specifically referencing Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), a 37-year veteran of the Marines Corp. On MSNBC’s Countdown, Gen. John Batiste, who commanded the 1st Infantry Division in Iraq before retiring, said that Rush’s new attack on Murtha “dismisse[s]” the “validity” of his attempt to spin his comments. Watch it:

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