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Steve Benen echoes my thoughts on why religious right leaders are likely to mount a third party bid if Rudy Giuliani becomes the Republican nominee. Kevin Drum says:

This sounds right to me, though there’s a good counterargument: judges. Dobson might be pissed, but what he really cares about is judicial appointments, and he knows that even Giuliani will appoint judges that he likes. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, by contrast, certainly won’t. So in the end, even if Rudy gets the GOP nomination, he’ll swallow hard and endorse him.

It’s important to distinguish between two cases here. One is that Giuliani is going to be looking for judges who’ll uphold unlimited executive power, unrestrained corporate greed, and be unsympathetic to criminal defendants and that judges who hold their views are, statistically speaking, likely to issue more Dobson-friendly rulings on sex-and-death issues than are Clinton or Obama judges. I think that’s clearly true, but key religious right leaders can’t afford to be persuaded by it. A power broker needs to be seen to have power, and vague promises to appoint strict constructionists coming from a pro-choice, pro-gay, twice divorces lapsed catholic don’t seem to me to demonstrate any particular clout on the part of religious right leaders.

Now Rudy has flirted with something more drastic, namely an explicit promise to only appoint justices who’ll vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. Rudy could point out that pro-lifers have never gotten a promise like that from their pro-life GOP nominees, and could note that Ronald Reagan (Kennedy, O’Connor), George H.W. Bush (Souter), and George W. Bush (Harriet Miers) have all tried to put unreliable votes on the bench.

That, it seems to me, would have to be good enough for Dobson or anyone else. Rudy would be blatantly kowtowing, all the other candidates would need to follow suit, and the pro-life movement would have demonstrated its clout. That would create problems for Giuliani in a general election, but nothing like the nightmare of a third party challenge. So why doesn’t Rudy do it? My guess is he’s ornery and doesn’t like the idea of kowtowing. But from the perspective of a Dobson, that’s precisely the problem.

Security

Casey: Army Needs ‘Three Or Four Years’ And ‘Substantial Resources’ To Recover From Iraq War

Gen. David Petraeus has repeatedly stated that he would like the U.S. to be in Iraq for 9-10 years. “[T]he average counter insurgency is somewhere around a nine or a 10 year endeavour,” he said in July.

But in a press conference yesterday, Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey indirectly dealt a blow to Petraeus’s plan, stating the Army would continue to be “out of balance” as long as U.S. troops occupy Iraq.

Casey reemphasized that that the “current demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply,” leaving the U.S. unable to handle future threats. He elaborated on the long-term commitment it will take from the U.S. to restore our forces to peak capability.

It’s going to take us three or four years and a substantial amount of resources to put ourselves back in balance.

Under the current strain, the Army must “reset,” or restore forces “in a period of persistent conflict.” These resets require a substantial commitment from the U.S. “It takes about $13 billion dollars to reset a 15 brigade size force plus their enablers every year,” he said.

Casey’s “three to four year” time frame, however, depends on the rate of withdrawal from Iraq. Responding to a question about how long after the war would the Army need to continue paying for reseting its forces, Casey stated:

We’ve said two years. And that’s right. The question is, when does the conflict end? … As forces begin to draw down, there’s still going to be a need to reset those forces.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/10/caseyarmy72.320.240.flv]

Casey also said he would like to increase dwell-time between deployments and “come off a 15-month deployment” for U.S. troops. Such a measure was proposed by Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) last month, but conservatives blocked the amendment, buckling to pressure from the administration.

Ironically, while Petraeus is pushing for a decade-long occupation, he has “agreed the military was stretched too thin, and the Army likely would not be able to respond if trouble arose in another part of the world.”

Politics

‘Dear Abby’ speaks out for gay marriage.

Next week, when she accepts the first-ever “Straight for Equality” award from Parents and Friends of Lesbians and Gays, author Jeanne Phillips, who writes the nationally syndicated “Dear Abby” column started by her mother, will publicly declare her support for gay marriage. “I believe if two people want to commit to each other, God bless ‘em,” Phillips told the AP. “That is the highest form of commitment, for heaven’s sake.” Phillips “Dear Abby” column appears in about 1,400 newspapers.

Yglesias

Judeocentism

I’d forgotten about it, but M.J. Rosenberg’s post here reminded me of the existence of Michael Kinsley’s hilarious 2003 tour of anti-semitism on the AIPAC website:

It is my sad duty to report that this form of anti-Semitism seems to have infected one of the most prominent and respected—one might even say influential—organizations in Washington. This organization claims that “America’s pro-Israel lobby”—and we all know what “pro-Israel” is a euphemism for—has tentacles at every level of government and society. On its Web site, this organization paints a lurid picture of Zionists spreading their party line and even indoctrinating children. And yes, this organization claims that the influence of the Zionist lobby is essential to explaining the pro-Israel tilt of U.S. policy in the Middle East. It asserts that the top item on the Zionist “agenda” is curbing the power of Saddam Hussein.

On a more serious note, it occurs to me that some of these disputes about how powerful some lobby is or isn’t in DC get a little hard to resolve because the perception of power is, itself, an important source of power which creates a lot of ambiguity as to what it even means to ask how powerful a group “really” is.

Yglesias

Best Debate Yet

We learned nothing new about the candidates during this debate, but it was a lot funnier than any of the previous Republican or Democratic debates. The candidates seem to have gotten some good joke-writers or something. The best part was when Romney said something like “this campaign is a lot like Law & Order — it’s got a huge cast, it seems to go on forever, and Fred Thompson shows up at the end” and then Thompson fired back: “I thought I was gonna be the best actor on this stage.” Laughs all around. Plus: I agree with both of them, Thompson is an empty suit and Romney is a pathetic liar.

Politics

GOP congressmen quit because of five-day work week.

Nine Republican congressmen have so far announced that they will not be running for re-election. One of those lawmakers, Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL), complained “that the Democrats’ new five-day workweek” is part of the reason they’re all retiring:

lahood4.gifI do think the schedule and the flying is a huge pain for people, particularly those who are from the Midwest or even further West,” he said, adding that it’s “probably the worst part of the job.”

“I think that has played into these retirement announcements,” said the seven-term congressman from Peoria.

In Dec. 2006, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) also griped about having to work five days each week, stating, “Marriages suffer. The Democrats could care less about families — that’s what this says.”

Digg It!

Climate Progress

Lomborg and Shellenberger & Nordhaus Redux

Looks like I’m not the only one who sees a scary similarity between the messages in their respective books, Cool It and Break Through.

The San Francisco Chronicle just ran a double review by Robert Collier, a visiting scholar at the Center for Environmental Public Policy at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy. The review ends pointedly:

[T]he arguments of Nordhaus and Shellenberger attain an intellectual pretense that could almost pass for brilliant if their urgings weren’t so patently empty. The closing chapter calls for “greatness,” but, like the rest of the book, it offers little in the way of substantive proposals to back up its rhetorical thunder.

Perhaps that’s for their next book. Or perhaps real solutions, rather than pretentious sniping, are not the authors’ purpose. Nordhaus and Shellenberger, like Lomborg, will get plenty of attention in Washington from those who want to preserve the status quo. But for those who recognize the urgent need to transform the national and world economies and save the planet as we know it, they are ultimately irrelevant.

Precisely.

Read more

Yglesias

Like Bush, But Without the Deep Understanding of the Issues

Rudy Giuliani on whether or not it’s a problem that China owns so much of our federal debt: “the way to balance to books is to sell more overseas — sell energy independence, sell health care.”

John McCain on monetary policy: “I’m glad whenever they cut interest rates, I wish interest rates were zero.”

Yglesias

“The Most Productive in the World”

John McCain’s talking about how American workers are the “most productive in the world.” It’s true that American workers produce the most, but that’s because we work longer hours. By contrast, “measured as value added per hour worked, American workers dropped behind those in Norway where workers produced $37.99 per hour, compared to $35.63 in the United States and $35.08 in France.”

Yglesias

They All End in “Illion”

Dean Baker notes Fred Thompson misestimating by about $62 trillion . Naturally, the Wall Street Journal reporter who had the quote doesn’t notice the error. Felix Salmon wonders “Why is it that Saturday Night Live applies more critical judgment to Fred Thompson’s statements than the Wall Street Journal does?”

I’ve come, eventually, after many conversations, to believe the daily newspaper political reporters who swear to me that they’re doing the best they can. But if that’s right, the whole enterprise clearly needs to be radically rethought. Most people probably don’t know how much the infinite horizon cost projection for Medicare Part D is, and they probably know they don’t know it. But if they read this in the newspaper, they come to have beliefs on the subject:

“I know this probably isn’t a real popular thing to say, but we couldn’t afford this prescription-drug bill,” Mr. Thompson said last week on a swing through Iowa, home of Republican Sen. Charles Grassley, who helped push the program through Congress. “We basically put a $72 trillion commitment on top of an already-broken entitlement system. Not a responsible thing to do.”

Now you’re walking around thinking a $72 trillion commitment was made. You read it in the newspaper, after all. Except it’s wrong! But you shouldn’t be un-learning things when you read the paper.

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