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Conservatives too busy for hearing on Iraq war’s cost.

White House staffers aren’t the only ones “not worried” about the ultimate cost of the Iraq war. The Republicans in Congress seem equally apathetic. The House Budget Committee held a hearing today to receive testimony regarding the CBO’s estimate that the Iraq and Afghanistan wars may total $2.4 trillion. Only one Republican member of the committee attended. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) noted their absence:

Doggett: “I assume, by Mr. [Paul] Ryan (R-WI) being here, that every member of this panel, including every Republican member on that side of the aisle where all the seats are vacant, received notice about this hearing about the cost of war in Iraq?”

Spratt: “I’m sure they did.”

Doggett: “And when was this notice of the hearing sent out?”

Spratt: “Seven days ago, as required by the rules.”

The Gavel has video highlights from the hearing.

Politics

White House On $2 Trillion Iraq War: ‘Not Worried About the Number’

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported today that “total spending for U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other activities related to the war on terrorism would amount to between $1.2 trillion and $1.7 trillion for fiscal years 2001 through 2017.” With $705 billion in interest, the cost of the wars could amount to $2.4 trillion — with $1.9 trillion in Iraq.

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino attacked the report as “a ton of speculation” and downplayed it as a creation “based on questions that Democrats in Congress that don’t want us to be in the war asked.” Perino added that the White House is not concerned about the exact cost of the war:

[I]t’s just a ton of speculation. It’s a hypothetical … What I can tell you is I’m not worried about the number. What I’m worried about is making sure that the president gets what he needs in order to provide the safety and security for the country.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/10/perinonumbers111.320.240.flv]

The CBO’s projection is not “pure speculation.” In fact, the report considers a range of predictions about the U.S. military presence in Iraq, consistent with the administration’s desire for Korea-like, “enduring” occupation of Iraq. For example, in one scenario, the CBO predicts 30,000 troops deployed for the “war on terrorism” until FY2017. In another, they predict a more “gradual” decline to 75,000 by the start of fiscal year 2013 until 2017.

While the White House may not be “worried about the number,” the cost is certain to be harmful to the economy. “[I]t’s clear under analysis that the nation is on an unstable fiscal path,” CBO Director Peter Orszag told Congress today. The “higher debt and interest costs, is going to cause severe economic dislocation, which are exacerbated by war costs.”

USA Today notes, “In the months before the March 2003 Iraq invasion, the Bush administration estimated the Iraq war would cost no more than $50 billion.”

UPDATE: Tim Grieve adds: “CBO officials were asked this afternoon whether the $2.4 trillion figure represents their ‘worst-case’ scenario. No, they said: It represents only the worst of two different scenarios the CBO priced out. The real costs could actually be higher.

Transcript: Read more

Politics

Three Way

Stephen Colbert draws 13 percent in hypothetical three-way matchup with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Somewhat surprisingly, this doesn’t just come from reducing Clinton’s vote share. Instead, in the three-way matchup she secures a commanding 45-35 win over Rudy. This is all mostly meaningless, but I think it’s evidence that an anti-Giuliani spoiler candidate (Tancredo? Paul? Buchanan?) could find an audience . . . there’s an evident disaffection with the Republican options.

Politics

House to reintroduce SCHIP bill ‘as early as this week.’

House Democrats will bring the widely-supported SCHIP bill “back to the floor as early as this week,” with relatively few changes from the version that President Bush vetoed. Campaign for America’s Future has a new video featuring children with a message for President Bush and conservatives opposing an SCHIP expansion: “No health care for us, no photo ops for you.” Watch it:

The White House indicated today that it is willing to “shift” and allow “states to cover children up to 300% of the federal poverty level. … The administration previously opposed legislation permitting states to cover children above the 200% level.”

UPDATE: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) today announced that SCHIP legislation will be introduced tomorrow. Details on the new bill HERE.

Yglesias

Tradeoffs

Apparently The New Yorker now runs web-only articles (who knew?) and one of them is this great James Surowiecki piece about the Laffer acolytes of the world. Since I’ve sort of blogged this general subject to death already, though, it’s worth echoing a point that Hacker and Pierson make in Off Center, namely that this bogus idea about tax cuts and revenue is just one of several arrows in a quiver that’s designed to obscure the existence of real tradeoffs when the subject of tax policy gets debated.

At the end of the day, it’s just very hard to get people agitated about even the most regressive tax cut imaginable simply because the number of people motivated by pure resentment against the hyper-rich turns out to be pretty small. On top of that, these cuts are usually structured so as to at least throw a bone to the common man. I get $50 while some much richer person gets $50,000 and though I might wish I’d gotten more, at least I’m walking away with $50. But if the proposal on the table were structured explicitly as a choice between that and a different plan wherein the $50,050 goes to guarantee health insurance and a day care subsidy for me and for the rich guy, then suddenly the programs look like a much better deal.

Thus even when spending cuts are put on the table legislatively, it’s always done as a separate piece of legislation from the tax cuts. Meanwhile moderate (i.e., vulnerable) Republicans who wouldn’t necessarily embrace Lafferite dogma explicitly have a tendency to vote for tax cuts but then against the spending restraint measures required by the logic of tax cutting. Obviously, trying to avoid explicit discussion of tradeoffs is a trick of the trade beloved by politicians of all stripes all around the world, but the Laffer concept is an uncommonly effective tactic since the US press adamantly refuses to treat it as a “gaffe” when a Republican politician goes and puts patently untrue claims at the center of his economic policy.

Politics

Durbin slams Tancredo’s ‘bigotry and hatred.’

During debate of the DREAM Act today, lead sponsor Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-IL) railed against Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO), accusing him of “bigotry and hatred” after the anti-immigration lawmaker called for the arrest yesterday of three college-aged immigration activists who vocally supported the bill. “America is a better nation than what we hear from the likes of that congressman,” said Durbin. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/10/DurbinDream.320.240.flv]

In a 52-44 vote today, the Senate failed to invoke cloture on the DREAM Act, effectively killing the bill.

UPDATE: Though he sponsored the DREAM Act in 2005, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) skipped out on the vote this afternoon.

Politics

House hits 1,000 vote mark.

Today, the House held a record 1,000th vote of the year, “extending the previous record of 942 votes in a year set in 1978.” Last year, GOP-led 109th Congress held just 543 votes.

Politics

Politics Forever

Eric Martin wonders why if I acknowledge that the greater boldness of the Obama and Edwards campaigns in challenging the conservative meta-narrative about terrorism is driven in part by political considerations that I still consider it an important development.

The biggest reason is that it’s wrong to think that politics is something that happens on the campaign trail and then in office the politicians follow their “real” beliefs. If John Edwards campaigns and wins on a strategy of bold economic populism, it’s likely he’ll govern as someone who believes that bold economic populism is a solid route to a successful presidency. If Barack Obama campaigns as someone who takes on the hawkish Beltway CW on foreign policy, then it’s likely he’ll govern as someone who believes he has nothing to fear from the Washington Post editorial page. Of course these kind of things can change as somebody governs.

Similarly, even thought I think it was the Clinton campaign’s first instinct to offer a timid health care proposal, it was also the Clinton campaign’s first instinct to try to neutralize all the key Democratic interest groups, and so a combination of SEIU and Edwards essentially forced Clinton to offer a bold proposal. But now that that proposal is on the table, it doesn’t go off the table whether or not it’s “real.” The proposal will be debated, and if Clinton wins it’ll have scored a win. Meanwhile, the people inside Clinton’s camp who were advocates of bolder thinking on health care are empowered by the production of a plan and the need to have an argument about it.

At the end of the day, it’s not about finding the candidate who “really” has the best views. Instead, insofar as the issues matter to you (and, obviously, there are considerations beyond “the issues” in play) it’s about finding the candidate who has the best platform. We can’t peer into their souls and we don’t really need to.

Yglesias

I Have No Recollection

The Maher Arar case takes a turn for the preposterous as Condoleeza Rice “admitted on Wednesday the United States had mishandled” his case but “stopped short of an apology.” So, what, it was mishandled but she’s not sorry it was mishandled? Why not? Meanwhile, if she’s suffering from Alzheimer’s maybe she ought to resign:

Rice did not apologize in the hearing and avoided directly answering a question from Massachusetts Democrat Rep. William Delahunt who asked if she knew Arar was tortured in Syria.

“You are aware of the fact that he was tortured?” Delahunt asked.

“I am aware of claims that were made,” she responded.

But when asked if the United States had received any diplomatic assurances from Syria that Arar would not be tortured, Rice said her memory of the events had faded and she would have to respond later to the question.

Uh huh. It’s kind of shocking how this administration ricocheted so quickly between outsourcing torture to Syria to refusing to have any diplomatic relations with Syria. There’s a happy middle ground where you show a willingness to conduct diplomacy with “bad guy” regimes but don’t actually engage in the practices that make them bad guys.

Climate Progress

White House climate censorship continues

The shameless attempt to deny the American public the truth about climate impacts continue. As the AP reports:

Testimony that the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention planned to give yesterday to a Senate committee about the impact of climate change on health was significantly edited by the White House, according to two sources familiar with the documents.

Specific scientific references to potential health risks were removed after Julie L. Gerberding submitted a draft of her prepared remarks to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review.

Instead, Gerberding’s prepared testimony before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee included few details on what effects climate change could have on the spread of disease….

A CDC official familiar with both versions said Gerberding’s draft “was eviscerated.”

Wouldn’t want the public knowing the health impacts of its do-nothing climate policy.

If you’d like to see the original testimony, here it is, courtesy of Climate Science Watch. Compare that to the eviscerated version here. Stunning and petty at the same time.

Must our long national climate nightmare continue for another 15 months?

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