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Yglesias

A Pakistan Plan

Barack Obama has what seems like a pretty good idea for Pakistan, basically “continue funding for Pakistan in the Foreign Operations bill in the areas of counter-terrorism funding, public education, health, micro-enterprise development, humanitarian assistance, and democracy and rule of law programs” but suspend the large general support grants to the Pakistani military until such time as the conditions are set for free and fair elections and the Pakistani government comes up with a credible al-Qaeda plan.

Ilan Goldenberg likes this approach as well. Basically, you’d be pressure the Pakistani military to pressure Musharraf to get back on a path to civilian rule. As I say, seems like a decent idea for the short-term.

Politics

$40,000:

Amount former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales will receive to speak at the University of Florida later this month. It will be Gonzales’s first speaking appearance since his departure from the Bush administration.

Politics

Bush’s 2000 recount lawyer set to blast Bush in speech.

Barry Richard, the lawyer who “achieved fame for his successful representation of George Bush in the Bush v. Gore recount suits, is set to give a speech blasting the Bush administration Saturday night” at the National Association of Former U.S. Attorneys’ (NAFUSA) annual conference. There will also be a panel discussion featuring two of the ousted U.S. attorneys. The National Law Journal reports:

“I’m sure people will see my name on the program and expect I will be defending the administration,” said Richard, a Tallahassee, Fla., lawyer.

“But I’m a constitutional lawyer. I am concerned with the Bush administration’s assault on American liberties … how the administration deals with habeas corpus and the administration’s posture on electronic surveillance. This administration has gone farther than any other.

Politics

Iraq Deja Vu: Cheney Pressuring Intel Analysts, Stifling Dissent, Manipulating Intelligence

cheneyGareth Porter of Inter Press Service reports that Vice President Cheney has been thwarting the release of a long-overdue National Intelligence Estimate on Iran because it doesn’t deliver the casus belli for war:

A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has been held up for more than a year in an effort to force the intelligence community to remove dissenting judgments on the Iranian nuclear program, and thus make the document more supportive of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s militarily aggressive policy toward Iran, according to accounts of the process provided by participants to two former Central Intelligence Agency officers.

The current dispute over the Iran NIE bears striking resemblance to the controversies that played out over pre-war Iraq intelligence in at least two important ways:

1) Administration Stifling Dissent

NOW: According to IPS, the draft Iran NIE was reportedly completed a year ago, but the White House rejected it because it contained dissenting views. A former intelligence officer said, “They refused to come out with a version that had dissenting views in it.”

THEN: Prior to the Iraq war, the Air Force, Energy Department, and State Department all issued dissenting views on the state of Iraq’s progress towards a nuclear program. Those dissenting views later turned out to be correct, and in the process, greatly undermined the administration’s credibility. The lesson learned by the White House apparently is that this time they need to demolish dissent.

2) Administration Pressuring Analysts

NOW: Former CIA officer Philip Giraldi told IPS that “intelligence analysts have had to review and rewrite their findings three times, because of pressure from the White House.” The draft Iran NIE, for example, did not conclude that there was confirming evidence that Iran was arming the Shiite insurgents in Iraq, according to Giraldi.

THEN: Prior to the Iraq war, Cheney and his chief of staff Scooter Libby visited the CIA headquarters approximately a dozen times to engage the CIA analysts directly on the issue of Iraq’s nuclear development, “creating an environment in which some analysts felt they were being pressured to make their assessments fit with the Bush administration’s policy objectives.”

The New Yorker’s Seymour Hersh has reported that, despite there being very little evidence that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, the White House is “stovepiping” intelligence and hiding information from the CIA that makes a case for war.

In February, the intelligence community released a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq that reported Iran was not “a major driver of violence” inside Iraq, disputing administration claims to the contrary. Former CIA officer Giraldi says the the White House is looking for “a document that it can use as evidence for its Iran policy.” Fortunately, not all analysts are willing to “fix the facts around the policy.”

Politics

White House Plays Counterproductive Double-Game In Dealings With Musharraf

bushOn November 3, 2007, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule in Pakistan, citing a need to curb terrorism and restrict activist judges. His decision came a few days before Pakistan’s Supreme Court was set to rule on a series of cases that would have challenged his legitimacy to hold the post of president and chief of military simultaneously.

The Provisional Constitutional Order that followed the emergency declaration put Pakistan’s 1973 constitution into abeyance and suspended all fundamental rights, including: Article 9 (security of person), 10 (safeguard as to arrest and detention), 15 (freedom of movement, etc.), 16 (freedom of assembly), 17 (freedom of association), 19 (freedom of speech, etc.) and 25 (equality of citizens) shall remain suspended.

The suspension of fundamental rights is already producing convictions, as four men accused of treason have been jailed for making anti-government speeches. Pakistan’s private TV stations were all blacked-out and sale of satellite dishes was halted. Hundreds of lawyers and activists around the country were detained or put under house arrest, and the most recent estimate is that around 2,500 people are in jail.

The White House has been playing a quiet double game in its dealings with Musharraf — publicly appearing critical of him while privately lending him support.

On Wednesday, President Bush announced that he finally made a telephone call to Musharraf, reportedly urging him to “return Pakistan to civilian rule“:

President Bush telephoned General Musharraf for the first time since the crisis began and bluntly told him that he had to return Pakistan to civilian rule, hold elections and step down as chief of the military, as he had promised. Mr. Bush called him from the Oval Office at 11:30 a.m. Washington time, and spoke for about 20 minutes, according to the White House.

But reputable Pakistani journalist, Hamid Mir reported on Geo TV — Pakistan’s largest private cable news station — that the U.S. gave the green-light for Musharraf to go ahead and call the emergency. According to Mir, the U.S. supported Musharraf because it regarded the ousted “Chief Justice as a nuisance and ‘a Taliban sympathizer.’” That may explain why President Bush’s demands are so light:

Bush administration officials are unanimous in saying that American financial support for Pakistan will continue regardless of whether General Musharraf reverses course.

Moreover, military expert Aysha Siddiqa reports that American diplomats in Pakistan have information suggesting the upcoming elections may be rigged.

The Bush administration has to take a more direct line with Musharraf, ensure honesty and fairness in the elections for all parties, and not merely engage in window dressing.

– Ali Eteraz is editor of Pakistanpolitics.net and he blogs at Eteraz.

This post was submitted through our Blog Fellows program. Make your own contribution — and get paid for it — by clicking here.

Climate Progress

URGENT: Stop the Deniers!

Kevin Grandia at Desmogblog writes me urgently:

Right wing bloggers (the organized bunch that they are) have been pushing the votes for this year’s Weblog Awards and if nothing changes by midnight tonight, a climate denial site called Climate Audit will win for the “Best science blog” site.

Not good – please email everyone you know and ask them to vote for the second running site “Bad Astronomy” right away — we only need about 500 votes and if each of us sends it to 10 people, we’re well on our way.

Here’s the voting link.

For more info, read Kevin’s post: The “Vast Right Wing Conspiracy” beating “Vast Left Wing” Voting for Best Science Weblog.

Climate Progress

IEA: “The Next 10 Years are Critical”

Looks like Gore and Hansen and Climate Progress were right, all along. We must reverse our energy path in the next decade or suffer the consequences, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency. Indeed, the headline comes from their dire press release.

The New York Times reports the story this way:

China’s and India’s surging fuel consumption poses a growing challenge to the world’s energy systems and, unless curbed, will strain global oil trade, push up prices and lead to substantially higher carbon dioxide emissions in coming decades, according to a report by an influential energy organization scheduled for release today.

In unusually urgent tones, the International Energy Agency, which provides policy advice to industrial nations, urged advanced economies to work with China and India to cut overall growth in energy consumption.”

[Note to IEA and world: Duh!]

There is a need for an electroshock,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s chief economist and the lead author of its flagship publication, The World Energy Outlook [WEO]. “We have to act immediately and boldly.”

Birol told the Financial Times: “We want more action, instead of more targets and more meetings and more talks.”

Finally, someone talking sense! Back to the New York Times:

“This is a very worrying message,” Mr. Birol said. “China and India are transforming our energy markets. We have a window of opportunity of 5 to 10 years before it becomes unsustainable and irreversible.”

The IEA does acknowledge the benefits of China’s and India’s growth:

Read more

Politics

Breaking: Bernie Kerik indicted.

ABC News is reporting that a “federal grand jury has voted to indict ex-N.Y. city police commissioner Bernard Kerik on charges stemming from tax evasion and corruption allegations.” Mic Check Radio has a rundown of Kerik’s history:

— Allegedly traded $165,000 worth of renovations on his house from a contractor who wanted a license from the city.

– Quit his post training a new Iraqi police force in 2003 after just four months on the job, telling reporters “he needed a vacation.” [Washington Post]

– Used the apartment donated for weary Ground Zero rescue workers into his own personal love nest to use with his mistress. [NY Times]

– Was named in a civil suit in 1999 as “the architect of a system to force prison guards to work for Republicans in their off-hours.” [Newsweek]

– Had mob ties that include the best man in his wedding, Lawrence Ray, who was indicted in 2000 along with other organized crime figures in a scheme to manipulate the stock market. [Washington Post]

– Is now being sued for stiffing the law firm that kept him out of jail for more than $200,000. [NY Daily News]

Digg It!

Yglesias

It’s The Strategy

shadows%201.jpg

Kevin Drum remarks on the public’s growing indifference to the question of how things are going in Iraq. Polls show an uptick in the number of people who think the war is going well, but CNN’s polling indicates that more people than ever — 68 percent — say they oppose the war in Iraq.

I think this makes a lot of sense. It all comes down to what you think of the overall strategy. If you think, as I do, that the war is serving no strategic purpose except, perhaps, to present a continuing risk of a flare-up with Iran while antagonizing Arab public opinion then the war “going well” is, just like the war “going poorly,” just another reason to leave. On the other hand, if you think that the war serves the vital strategic importance of projecting American power into the region and keeping other antagonists like Syria and Iran at bay, then the war going poorly would be a reason to redouble our efforts, but the war going well would also be a reason to redouble our efforts.

Reality on the ground does matter at some level, of course, but in a fundamental sense the question is still about strategy not about the exact state of play in such-and-such neighborhood in Baghdad. The original strategic purpose of the war was to eliminate an advanced nuclear weapons program that didn’t exist. Today, the purpose is … what? Mainly, it seems, to allow people who staked their reputations to this venture to avoid admitting that they made a horrible mistake.

Security

Lieberman: ‘Paranoid, Hyper-Partisan’ ‘Left-Wing Blogs’ Wrote ‘Conspiracy Theories’ On Iran

liebermanspeech.jpgSpeaking today at the Johns Hopkins Center for Politics and Foreign Relations, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) accused “left-wing blogs” of making up “conspiracy theories” about the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, which passed the Senate last month. It designated part of the Iranian army a terrorist organization. Lieberman called opponents of the amendment “politically paranoid” and “hyper-partisan.”

He also claimed that the “amendment contained nothing” that could be seen “as a green light” for war:

These were absurd arguments. The text of our amendment contained nothing–nothing–that could be construed as a green light for an attack on Iran. To claim that it did was an act of delusion or deception.

On the contrary, by calling for tougher sanctions on Iran, the intention of our amendment was to offer an alternative to war.

Lieberman’s argument is the only “deception” going on. It didn’t take “conspiracy theories” to realize that the amendment would move America closer to war with Iran. In the original version of the bill, which was only changed after pressure from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), language was included that explicitly endorsed the use of “military instruments” against Iran:

(4) to support the prudent and calibrated use of all instruments of United States national power in Iraq, including diplomatic, economic, intelligence, and military instruments, in support of the policy described in paragraph (3) with respect to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies.

Even after the “military instruments” language was removed from the amendment, the final bill still shifted America into a more war-prone posture. As Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) noted at the time, just labeling Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp as “a foreign terrorist organization” could “mandate” the military option against Iran:

It could be read as tantamount to a declaration of war. What do we do with terrorist organizations? If they are involved against us, we attack them.

Given the language of the bill and Lieberman’s previous calls for “aggressive military action” against Iran, progressive blogs were hardly “delusional” in warning against the dangers of the amendment. But Lieberman would rather lash out at straw men caricatures of “left-wing blogs” and “hyper-partisans” than deal with legitimate criticism.

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