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NASA: 2007 Second Warmest Year Ever, with Record Warmth Likely by 2010

According to NASA scientists:

Through the first 11 months, 2007 is the second warmest year in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean has entered the cool phase of its natural El Ni±o — La Ni±a cycle.

barring the unlikely event of a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next 2-3 years.

nasa-2007.jpg

Figure (a) Annual surface temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980 mean, based on surface air measurements at meteorological stations and ship and satellite measurements of sea surface temperature; the 2007 point is the 11-month anomaly. [Green error bar is estimated 2σ uncertainty....]

Even an “unusually cold” December, would only drop 2007 to the third warmest year ever. NASA points out:

The six warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 15 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1988.

Anyone notice a trend? And the most warming is far from the urban heat islands of major cities:

… the greatest warming has been in the Arctic. Polar amplification is an expected characteristic of global warming, as the loss of ice and snow engenders a positive feedback via increased absorption of sunlight. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observations of record low Arctic sea ice cover in September this year.

But couldn’t this all be the sun going through a phase of high solar radiation, a favorite explanation of those who deny that human-generated greenhouse gases are the primary cause of warming? No. As NASA explains:

Read more

Politics

No holiday pardon for Libby.

Today, President Bush pardoned 29 convicts, but not to Scooter Libby, Vice President Cheney’s former top aide who was convicted in the Valerie Plame leak scandal. His pardons went to carjackers, drug dealers, moonshiners, and an official who received kickbacks in defense procurement contracts.

Politics

Rockefeller on tapes hearing: ‘Useful’ but not complete.

After today’s closed-door Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the torture tapes, Chairman John Rockefeller (D-WV) called the 90-minute session with CIA Director Michael Hayden “‘a useful and not yet complete hearing‘ and vowed the committee would get to the bottom of the matter. Among lingering questions: who authorized destruction of the tapes, and why Congress wasn’t told about it.”

Politics

Romney Goes Negativer

Ambinder talks to Mitt Romney who has some tough words for Mike Huckabee beyond the immigration issue:

Given the widespread hostility to Huckabee among conservative elites and institutions, it seems to me that there’s a decent possibility there’s still enough time between now and the Iowa caucuses that they can beat his insurgency back. The fact that Huckabee hasn’t made a real effort to defend his brand of big government conservatism on the merits leaves his very vulnerable to allegations of being a tax hiker, etc.

Politics

Biden: Does preservation order cover Cheney?

Days after the destruction of the CIA interrogation tapes was publicly revealed, White House Counsel Fred Fielding sent out a notice to “all employees” ordering them to preserve documents and evidence on the matter. Today, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) wrote to Fielding asking how far the order reaches:

On December 10, 2007, White House Press Secretary Dana Perino stated that you issued a written directive to White House employees to preserve documents related to the destruction of the CIA interrogation tapes. Ms. Perino did not provide a copy of the directive, however, and she was unable to answer questions as to its breadth and scope.

Please confirm that the directive to preserve documents applied to the Executive Office of the President, including the National Security Council, in addition to immediate White House staff. In light of the Office of the Vice President’s record of fatuous arguments that it is not subject to the authority of the President, please also confirm that the directive included the Office of the Vice President and that the Office of the Vice President intends to comply.

Yglesias

The War’s End?

Nothing is over!!! Nothing!!! You just don’t turn it off! It wasn’t my war! You asked me, I didn’t ask you!

–Rambo: First Blood

The juxtaposition of David Brooks and Peter Beinart both opining that nobody cares about Iraq any more right before a New York Times poll came out revealing that “more people cite the Iraq war as the most important issue facing the country than cite any other matter” sure is odd. Equally odd, in many respects, is the logic Beinart used to reach his conclusion:

Last month, Katharine Q. Seelye of the New York Times live-blogged the Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas. As the discussion bounced from subject to subject, she marked the topic and the time, then gave her thoughts. At 8:34 p.m., it was driver’s licenses; 8:55, Pakistan; 9:57, the Supreme Court. By night’s end she had 17 entries totaling almost 1,500 words. And she hadn’t typed “Iraq” once.

Basically, the evidence for Beinart’s side is that media elites who control the debate questioning process don’t want to talk about the war. Conversely, the public does seem to think the war is very important. This is particularly interesting since historically elites care a lot more about foreign policy questions than does the public at large, which tends to be more focused on so-called “bread and butter” issues.

This seems akin to what I wrote about over the summer in the LA Times when we had a spurt of calls for a lowering of the partisan temperature over the Iraq issue. And, of course, we saw something similar about a year ago when all the little people were supposed to hush up and let the Iraq Study Group sort things out for us.

There is, in essence, a powerful desire to avoid an “accountability moment” in which the people who played a role in bamboozling a large swathe of the public into backing the war are called onto the carpet. There’s a desire to believe that there’s only one strategy the United States could possibly be pursuing in the world and that, therefore, the only debates to be had are boring tactical ones that couldn’t possibly engage the public mind. Invading Iraq was, perhaps, an error — but an unavoidable one, something that just happened. Then mistakes were made in the implementation, but now better implementation is at hand, so the debate is over. After all, if Bush has now largely adopted the tactics the liberal hawks once criticized him for not adopting, what could there possibly be to argue about? And so how could the public possibly care? After all, there aren’t any questions about it in Kit Seelye’s notebook?

Obviously, though, this is a big deal. To observe that monthly casualty rates for American soldiers are now lower than they once were (2007 is still the deadliest year) s neither here nor there — one big, obvious virtue of the “let’s leave” alternative is that it gets our troops’ fatalities down to nothing. Meanwhile, the small mercy of this war has always been that fatalities among our soldiers have been pretty low by historical standards. But despite that there’s the small issue of whether or not we should really be proceeding on this course. Of course it’s a big deal!

Yglesias

Jim Glassman, America’s New Salesman

One point people have tried to make over the past few years is that the Bush administration needs to stop thinking of public diplomacy as simply a need to put a better sales pitch on the same American policies. Our pitch is actually fine and people understand what we’re saying — they just don’t like it.

Relatedly, someone told me earlier today that Jim “Dow 36,000″ Glassman was replacing Karen Hughes. I laughed at this pretty funny out-of-left-field joke. Obviously, the same George W. Bush who thinks public diplomacy is just about salesmanship wouldn’t give the job to one of the least credible salespeople on the planet. Funny stuff. And imaginative! But no, this is really happening.

Politics

Huckabee And Thompson: Global Warming Is ‘Overblown’

thompson4.jpg Tonight on CBS Evening News, each of the 10 leading presidential candidates will be asked, “Do you think the risks of climate change are at all overblown?” According to an advance transcript, every single candidate acknowledges the threat — except Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson.

Huckabee responds that “scientifically,” he doesn’t know whether global warming is “overblown.” Thompson goes a step further, claiming that the “state of entitlements” and “extremists” who “want to do drastic things to our economy” are the real problems:

THOMPSON: There are a lot of unanswered questions. We don’t know to the extent this is a cyclical thing. This may or may not effect very much. The extremists are the ones who want to do drastic things to our economy before we have more answers as to how much good we can do and whether people in the other parts of the world are going to contribute. It’s the fact that our entitlements are bankrupting the next generation. We’re spending the money of those yet to be born and we can’t continue that way.

Thompson and Huckabee are wrong. The debate is over about whether manmade global warming is a threat. Even members of the Bush White House have admitted so.

It’s unclear how committed to fighting global warming the other Republican candidates are as well. Al Gore and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) recently announced that they were convening a bipartisan New Hampshire presidential forum on climate and energy. Yet of the Republicans, only Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) agreed to participate.

Giuliani never even returned calls to the forum organizers. While he admits to CBS that there “is global warming,” his solution is to rely more heavily on U.S. coal reserves. Giuliani has received more than $400,000 from employees of companies in the oil, gas, and energy industries. His law firm, Bracewell and Giuliani, also recently led the lobbying campaign on behalf of the utilities companies against the Senate energy bill.

The Sierra Club has more on the presidential candidates’ commitments to a clean energy future.

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