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Predicting CW

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A lot of people seem fascinated with things like the political predictions charts on Intrade. I, frankly, would very much like to be fascinated with them. But in reality, they’re deadly boring. Take the betting on the Republican nomination, for example. It’s clearly just a kind of lagging indicator of semi-informed conventional wisdom. The crowd didn’t have a premonition of Mike Huckabee’s rise and — more damningly — the crowd didn’t have the foreknowledge to recognize that Huckabee’s surge was going to lead to a backlash and heightened scrutiny. So he skyrockets up and then down he dips.

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Hillary is currently valued at 66.9 and I’m absolutely certain that if she loses in Iowa (of which there’s certainly more than a 33 percent chance of happening) then she’ll plunge.

Not that any of that is wrong, but it’s not especially interesting. You’d like to see some kind of noteworthy divergence between what the betting markets are saying and what people in DC speculate about around the water cooler. Instead, you get something that seems to be an equal blend of what people say around the water cooler with national polls. In formal terms, I guess the problem is that everyone is working off the same bits of inadequate information so nothing’s really being aggregated. We all know what the latest polls say and that the outcomes in the early states matter more. Put all of us knowing the same thing together and what you get is dull, dull, dull.

Media

New York Times To Hire Bill Kristol As Weekly Columnist

kristol223411.jpgThe Huffington Post reports that neoconservative columnist and Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol will be joining the New York Times as a columnist:

[I]n a move bound to create controversy, the New York Times is set to announce that Bill Kristol will become a weekly columnist in 2008.

Kristol, a prominent neo-conservative who recently departed Time magazine in what was reported as a “mutual” decision, has close ties to the White House and is a well-known proponent of the war in Iraq. Kristol also is a regular contributor to Fox News’ Special Report with Brit Hume.

Kristol’s lies, distortions, and hawkish proposals are notorious. A sampling of the views that New York Times readers may now be reading on a weekly basis:

– Iran halting its nuclear weapons program is “another feather in the cap for Iraq invasion.”

– The U.S. should “put everything” behind Iraq escalation so we can bomb Iran and Syria.

– Markos Moulitsas is the “left-wing blogger who was not respectable three or four years ago.”

– “Sober, serious” people want over 100,000 troops in Iraq when Bush leaves office.

– Let’s “stretch our Army and Marines” for “another year or so” in Iraq.

– A presidential pardon for Scooter Libby would remove the “cloud hanging over his White House and over the war.”

– College men are “very happy” that Plan B will now be sold over-the-counter because they can have “a wild night” and “the burden is off them.”

– On SCHIP veto: “I’m happy that the President’s willing to do something bad for the kids. ”

– Al Gore “got the Nobel Peace Prize for bloviating about global warming.”

No word on whether the Times will follow Newsweek and “balance” Kristol with a progressive columnist.

Politics

Former Guantanamo inmate set free.

Australian David Hicks, “the first person convicted at an American war crimes trial since World War II was freed from prison on Saturday, after completing his U.S. imposed sentence.” Hicks spent five years in detention at Guantanamo Bay, followed by a nine month sentence in prison. “He was told to remain silent about any alleged abuse he suffered while in custody.”

Politics

The Case for Polarization

Everyone’s gotten to the fact that Newsweek‘s Evan Thomas is factually wrong to say that increased partisan polarization turns people off from politics. It’s worth stopping to pause the fact that Thomas had a false, empirically verifiable, CW-reaffirming thesis in his head and a major newsmagazine went ahead and published it without either the author or any of his editors stopping to check the evidence, which would have proven him wrong. Meanwhile, it’s a foregone conclusion that nobody involved in publishing this in Newsweek will suffer any deleterious consequences whatsoever. If you repeat the CW, you prosper, no matter what.

Pushing things further, though, I would make the case that polarization is a good thing. Polarization means you know, as a citizen, how to translate political activity — voting, volunteering, donating — into policy results. If every Democrat is to the left of every Republican on some issue, then if you want to move the status quo to the left you support Democratic candidates but if you want to move it to the right you support Republicans. Under conditions where there’s very little polarization, like the congressional politics of civil rights in the 1950s, you get chaos. Perhaps a certain Democratic incumbent is slightly better on civil rights than his Republican challenger. But the Republican ranking member on some key committee may well be better on civil rights than is the Democratic incumbent. Thus it’s possible that backing the incumbent is good for civil rights unless beating the incumbent would cause the balance of power to shift and bring the Republican ranking member into the majority. What’s a voter to do? Who knows?

Weak parties make the life of a Washington power broker more interesting. Basically, there’s more power brokering to do. There are more horses to trade. There’s more dealing to wheel. Politics becomes a fascinating game of three dimensional chess. Polarization is boring. Two parties lay out there programs, people vote, and depending on the election outcomes and the veto points in the system, legislation results. But polarization is simpler for voters. It connects actions to results. And it brings about higher levels of participation as a result.

Photo of the North Pole by Flickr user ianz used under a Creative Commons license

Yglesias

Helicopters

It seems that UN missions around the world are being hobbled by a shortage of helicopters. This really seems like something that should be a solvable problem and yet no member states seem willing to let the UN use any. This is classic penny wise, pound foolish behavior. Some UN helicopters to do peacekeeping and peace enforcement missions successfully will prevent situations from spiraling out of control and then requiring much more costly interventions.

Culture

Mapping Slavery

Via Edge of the West this map showing the distribution of slaves in the antebellum United States is pretty neat as are the other maps on that page from the University of Chicago. While you’re at Edge of the West, check out their historically informed take on Bruce Bartlett’s odd thesis that a full and frank airing of the Democratic Party’s history on race would reflect poorly on contemporary liberalism.

Yglesias

Worst of the Worst

A remarkable quantity of dumb stuff has been said since Benazir Bhutto’s death. I think, though, that K-Lo’s post on how this shows we should ban abortion may be the worst in terms of its substantive logic. David Ignatius, on the other, seems determined to humiliate every one of us out there who’s been known to chafe at the “name-dropping Harvard asshole” stereotype as he seeks to substitute “we worked on the Crimson together!” for actual foreign policy analysis. Best part, “She believed in democracy, freedom and openness — not as slogans but as a way of life. She wasn’t perfect; the corruption charges that enveloped her second term as prime minister were all too real. But she remained the most potent Pakistani voice for liberalism, tolerance and change.”

You might think that someone committed to liberalism, tolerance, and change would try to avoid undermining all of that with staggering levels of corruption. But nobody’s perfect!

Politics

Bush to veto defense authorization bill.

The White House announced today that President Bush intends to veto a major defense authorization bill, “citing concerns over language that it claims could endanger Iraqi assets held in U.S. banks“:

The President intends to veto H.R. 1585, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (“NDAA”). One provision in the bill – section 1083 – would significantly amend current law (the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act) in ways that would imperil Iraqi assets held in the United States, including reconstruction and central bank funds. If enacted, Section 1083 would permit plaintiffs’ lawyers immediately to freeze Iraqi funds and would expose Iraq to massive liability in lawsuits concerning the misdeeds of the Saddam Hussein regime.

The new democratic government of Iraq, during this crucial period of reconstruction, cannot afford to have its funds entangled in such lawsuits in the United States. Once in place, the restrictions on Iraq’s funds that could result from the bill could take months to lift, and thus Section 1083 cannot become law even for a short period of time.

The bill also contains a 3.5 percent military pay raise. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) have condemned Bush’s threat, saying Bush “should have raised its objections earlier” and is “bowing to the demands of the Iraqi government.” More on the legislation HERE.

Culture

Thank God for the State

I was vaguely contemplating the idea of making a playlist of songs I have that mention specific roads in them. Then I thought “Matt, you should really use Google before you do that” so I did. And what did I discover but an official Federal Highway Administration list of songs that mention specific roads. Take that, libertarians! These are the government services I need.

Yglesias

Good News / Bad News

Thank God. A new Kenneth Pollack article! About Iraq! In The New Republic! Yes! It seems that the surge is working. Or, more precisely:

The bottom line in Iraq remains complicated. We should be heartened by recent progress, but we should not assume we have won yet, either: Failure is still at least as likely as success. But all is far from lost in Iraq, and the outlines of a successful strategy are finally appearing. Nevertheless, if the Bush administration is going to engineer lasting achievements from the accomplishments of the surge so far, it still has a lot to do and little margin for error.

There are a few flies in the ointment. For example: “the country’s central government remains a highly counter-productive force.” That’s no problem, though. Rather than deal with the central government being a highly counter-productive force rather than a useful partner by leaving Iraq, we could just order up a new government: “by substituting one coalition for another within the current Council of Representatives (COR), but by advancing the date for elections (from late 2009 to late 2008 or early 2009) to get an entirely new COR.” We can also help out by speeding the dismembering of the Iraqi state: “it may be necessary for Iraq to move to something closer to a cantonal system along Swiss lines.”

At any rate, it’s important to keep the stakes in mind:

As both of these examples illustrate, such campaigns require lots of time. In Iraq, several important factors, including the fortuitous and well-exploited “Anbar awakening,” in which large numbers of Sunni tribes turned on their former allies in Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and other Salafi extremist groups, has speeded progress. But there are three hurdles the United States must clear if it is to convert initial success into victory and leave Iraq as the next Northern Ireland, instead of the next Vietnam. This will still require considerable skill–and not a little luck.

To be honest, all you ought to need to say to make the case for withdrawal is “according to the proponents of staying, Northern Ireland is the best case scenario.” I mean, that’s crazy.

But to note a couple of analogistic points, they speak English in Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland is tiny, and the idea of just importing the Swiss political system to a foreign country with totally different traditions (and geography!) is silly.

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