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Yglesias

Debate Wrapup

I’ll admit to not having paid very close attention to this one. I don’t think the mandates argument broke any new ground — Clinton has me convinced that she’s right on the policy, but doesn’t have me convinced that this is significant enough to make up for the other problems with her candidacy. The way Russert handled the Louis Farrakhan issue was, I thought, pretty egregious but about what I expect from him. Clinton’s classless handling of the aftermath was also about what I expect from her at this point. Beyond that, I just don’t know. Through my own eyes, i.e. those of a person who’s watched about a million Democratic primary debates at this point, the whole thing seems tedious. How does it seem to voters in Ohio and Texas who are watching these two go at it for a first or a second time? I don’t know.

I will give props to the moderators for the what can you tell me about Russia’s new leader question. I thought that was a good one. Out of left field questions are fun because the candidates don’t have canned responses, but you need to find one that’s legitimate and substantive and I think that one was. It reminded me, actually, that there are a whole host of things — our relationship with India, for example — I wish I’d seen the candidates debate in more detail during this long process.

Climate Progress

Disputing the ‘consensus’ on global warming

Salon liked my post “How do we really know humans are causing global warming?” but wanted something more in-depth and … serious. The result is “The cold truth about climate change: Deniers say there’s no consensus about global warming. Well, there’s not. There’s well-tested science and real-world observations [that are much more worrisome].”

James Hansen read the first draft and wrote me back, “Very important for the public to understand this — why has nobody articulated this already?” I don’t know the answer. All I can say is that while I was writing the article, the central point dawned on me:

The more I write about global warming, the more I realize I share some things in common with the doubters and deniers who populate the blogosphere and the conservative movement. Like them, I am dubious about the process used by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to write its reports. Like them, I am skeptical of the so-called consensus on climate science as reflected in the IPCC reports. Like them, I disagree with people who say “the science is settled.” But that’s where the agreement ends.

The science isn’t settled — it’s unsettling, and getting more so every year as the scientific community learns more about the catastrophic consequences of uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions.

The big difference I have with the doubters is that they believe the IPCC reports seriously overstate the impact of human emissions on the climate — whereas the actual observed climate data clearly show they dramatically understate the impact.

I point out many instances of this in the article. For instance, “The recent [Arctic] sea-ice retreat is larger than in any of the (19) IPCC [climate] models” — and that was a Norwegian expert in 2005. Since then, the Arctic retreat has stunned scientists by accelerating, losing an area equal to Texas and California just last summer

arctic_melt.gif

The Salon article also discusses why I think “the scientific community, the progressive community, environmentalists and media are making a serious mistake by using the word ‘consensus’ to describe the shared understanding scientists have about the every-worsening impacts that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are having on this planet.” Part of the reason is that “When scientists and others say there is a consensus, many if not most people probably hear ‘consensus of opinion’ ” whereas, as I explain, “science doesn’t work by consensus of opinion. Science is in many respects the exact opposite of decision by consensus.”

Another reason is that the IPCC ‘consensus’ clearly understates what we face from uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions. As the article concludes:

Read more

Politics

Davis: DoD General Counsel ‘Leaned On’ Me To Rush Detainee’s Trial Ahead Of Australian Elections

morrisdavis.gifIn March 2007, Australian native David Hicks, who was a detainee at Guantanamo Bay, became the first person to be sentenced by a military commission convened under the Military Commissions Act of 2006. At the time, critics charged that Hicks’ sudden plea bargain appeared to be the result of a political deal between Vice President Cheney and then-Australian Prime Minister John Howard.

A month before Hicks’ sentence was announced, Cheney visited Howard in Australia, where the Australian PM lobbied for the trial to “be brought on as soon as humanly possible and with no further delay.” At the time, Howard was in a tough re-election fight and Hicks’ fate was an issue in the campaign.

Yesterday, Col. Morris Davis — who was the lead prosecutor in Hicks’ trial — told Australia’s Herald Sun that he was “leaned on” by the Pentagon in a manner that “only made sense in political context“:

On the end of the line was the Pentagon’s general counsel, William “Jim” Haynes. He asked Colonel Davis how soon he could charge Hicks. The Australian had been held in custody without a hearing for five years after being picked up in Afghanistan in late 2001. [...]

The only way Colonel Davis could make sense of what he was hearing from Mr Haynes was in the context of what he was reading about the political environment in Australia. [...]

Colonel Davis says the phone calls he got from Mr Haynes and the timeline in Australia in which a “loyal ally” in Mr Howard was eyeing a difficult election and wanted to get the Hicks matter put to rest, means the nine-month sentence deal that got Hicks home has a “bad odour”..”

Davis, who has previously said that he “felt pressure to pursue high-profile convictions ahead of the 2008 elections, resigned from his position in October 2007 after he was placed under Haynes in the chain of command. Last week, Davis told the Nation that Haynes had insisted to him in 2005 that the Pentagon “can’t have acquittals” at Guantanamo because they’d “been holding these guys for so long” and it would be difficult to “explain letting them get off.”

Haynes announced yesterday that he is resigning in order to return “to private life next month.”

(HT: TPMmuckraker)

Yglesias

401(k)

It’s not the biggest deal in the world, but it was odd of Hillary Clinton to say that you’re automatically enrolled in a 401(k) when you sign on with a 401(k)-providing insurer. This isn’t the case, but it ought to be the case, and making the change has been proposed by many people.

Politics

White House e-mail preservation system ‘primitive.’

Today, House Oversight Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) held a hearing on the White House’s electronic data preservation. In light of the White House’s notorious e-mail destruction, Steven McDevitt, a computer expert who worked in the administration, called its system “primitive,” creating a “high” risk that data would be lost. He noted:

– The White House had no complete inventory of e-mail files.

– There was no automatic system to ensure that e-mails were archived and preserved.

– Until mid-2005 the e-mail system had serious security flaws, in which “everyone” on the White House computer network had access to e-mail. McDevitt wrote that the “potential impact” of the security flaw was that there was no way to verify that retained data had not been modified.

In a report presented at the hearing, Waxman’s staff “said difficulties arose in recovering e-mails for Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald in the CIA leak probe,” the AP writes.

Politics

Inside/Outside

Christopher Maag does an interesting piece for Time magazine on the contrast between the Clinton campaign organization in Ohio — dominated by the patronage networks of state and local officials — and the Obama organization, which is an impressive quasi-spontaneous grassroots phenomenon carefully cultivated by the Obama campaign. The basic frame of the piece is that Obama’s approach is better, but since the voting’s not done yet, Maag’s careful to include a hedge:

“I only started calling my people last week,” said State Senator Dale Miller, a Democratic stalwart on Cleveland’s west side. “In retrospect, if I had started a week or two earlier, we would be better off now.”

Miller’s organization remains formidable, however. He spent the last few months calling hundreds of supporters, asking them to volunteer for Clinton and tracking those who seemed responsive. He visited every neighborhood Democratic club in his district at least once, filling his clipboard with new volunteers. “The people I know may not be huge in number, but they are the people who are the most active in their neighborhoods,” says Miller.

Clearly, I think, either approach could work. But what I think is interesting is the different implications for governing. If a President Clinton wants to pressure some Ohio members of congress into casting a tough vote they don’t really want to cast, she has a lot of tools at her disposal for bringing them to heel. One thing she can’t do, however, is generate pressure based on her local political organization in Ohio. After all, it’s not her organization, it belongs to the state and local elected officials and she just borrows it from them. Obama, by contrast, may have that option. And what’s more, it’s a technique that can work “behind enemies lines” as it were, against Republican members of congress whose districts don’t include any entrenched incumbent Democrats with their own organizations.

Will Obama in fact find a way to extend his campaign tools to the art of governing and political pressure? There’s no way to tell. But he might. And much like his approach to campaign, it’d be a huge game-changer. On some level, after all, it’s sort of irrelevant whether or not Obama’s outsider organizing methods are actually superior. He didn’t have the option of being the establishment candidate. What we know is that his organizing methods were effective enough and, at the end of the day, much more effective than the organizing methods of any previous presidential candidate.

Politics

McCain: ‘It Doesn’t Matter’ If Indicted Congressman Renzi Is Still Part Of My Campaign

Last Friday, Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ), who is a member of Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) National Leadership Team and a co-chair of his Arizona Leadership Team, was indicted for extortion, wire fraud, money laundering and other crimes. Asked that day about Renzi’s indictment, McCain said he didn’t “know enough of the details to make a judgment.”

Later, on a conference call with conservative bloggers, McCain said Renzi “would probably step down as co-chair of his Arizona campaign.” Asked in Ohio today, however, McCain said “it doesn’t matter” if Renzi stays on his campaign or not. Watch it:

McCain has been staunchly loyal to his fellow Arizonian. After the FBI investigation into Renzi was first reported in October 2006, McCain vouched for Renzi’s “integrity” in a robo-call to Arizona voters:

This is Senator John McCain. I’m calling to urge you to support my friend, Representative Rick Renzi for Congress. Rick has represented the first district of Arizona with tenacity, honesty and integrity beyond reproach.

But despite his claim that “it doesn’t matter” if the indicted Renzi remains a part of his campaign, McCain hasn’t hesitated to call for scandal plagued public officials to resign. Just last year, McCain said that both Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) and former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales should step down.

Politics

Ricks: Iraq’s ‘best case scenario’ is basically a ‘quagmire.’

Asked by a soldier in Baghdad today if there is “an end in sight” in Iraq, Washington Post military reporter Thomas Ricks replied that he thinks “we are stuck in Iraq for years to come” and that “the best case scenario isn’t that different from what some would call a quagmire.” Later in the online chat, Ricks expressed his cynicism about getting out of Iraq, saying, “I think we will be there for a looooooooooong time.”

Politics

‘Bush Rangers’ rallying behind McCain.

Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) fundraising apparatus “is increasingly beginning to resemble that of George W. Bush.” The Huffington Post reports:

Through the end of January, McCain had received roughly $200,000 in personal contributions from 2004 Bush Rangers, those major contributors who each helped the president raise more than $200,000 in his reelection bid. About a fifth of that total has come in the last month alone, an analysis of campaign finance reports shows.

In addition, more than 30 of McCain’s “bundlers” — those donors who, as identified by the non-profit group Public Citizen, have pooled money for the senator — also served as Bush Rangers.

“McCain recently announced that Mercer Reynolds, the national finance chairman for Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign, was going to help him raise cash.”

Politics

Graham: ‘Political Reconciliation In Iraq Going Better Than It Is Here At Home’

Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) returned this week from a trip to Iraq and was “brimming with optimism.” This morning on Fox News, Graham said he wishes Washington would be more like Baghdad:

The truth is that political reconciliation in Iraq is going better there than it is here at home because of better security.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/02/grahamrecon.320.240.flv]

Graham’s foresight on Iraq has been repeatedly off-base. For example, in August, he said the U.S. was “kicking ass” and foresaw “breakthrough” political reconciliation “within weeks, not months.” In reality, little has been accomplished since then.

So, does Graham really want Washington to function more like Baghdad? Does he want to see one political faction assassinating the other’s officials? Politically-linked murders of judicial investigators, doctors, and politicians? Sectarian bombings of civilians trying to freely practice their religion?

(HT: Alex Koppelman)

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