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Yglesias

Back to work already?

[Alyssa]

I second Isaac’s thanks to Matt, and extend my gratitude to him for taking over basketball coverage for the week. Now I don’t feel guilty about throwing a little baseball into the mix. But before I get all serious, I thought I’d wave goodbye to the hour left in the long weekend and welcome summer in with a few thoughts on summer jams.

Far be it from me to defend Will Smith’s rap career. My own tastes run a little more towards the Dirty South and a little less towards “Welcome to Miami.” But New York’s Vulture blog is running a search for the best new song of the summer, and none of the entrants so far are particularly…summery. Is there actually a better song about June, July and August than “Summertime”?

I’ve racked my brain and my iTunes playlist. And while “Summer of ‘69” and “The Boys of Summer” capture individual summer romances, and the entire early Beach Boys catalog is the best possible homage to surfing and driving, the former are kind of well…angsty, and the latter are more than a little dated. But no matter how passé Will Smith’s shorts and flattop are, I can’t imagine a time when firing up a grill and hanging out in the sunshine wouldn’t be more fun than, say, coming back to work after a holiday weekend.

If you need to procrastinate while you recover on Tuesday morning, throw your favorite summer songs in the comments and I’ll put up a Muxtape of the most-mentioned ones at the end of the week.

Politics

McCain afraid of being seen with Bush tomorrow.

The Wall Street Journal’s Laura Meckler writes that President Bush and John McCain’s joint fund-raiser in Phoenix tomorrow will be the “first time in three months” the two will be seen together. But the McCain campaign is trying its hardest to ensure cameras don’t capture the moment:

bush2.jpgThe pair will be seen together before TV cameras only fleetingly, at the airport as Mr. Bush departs on Air Force One, and there are no plans for either to formally say anything. [...]

A senior adviser to Sen. McCain said the campaign considered the risk of having the candidate appear with the president at all but concluded there was no way to avoid it given that the event was in Sen. McCain’s home state.

A McCain adviser underscored that “the time Sen. McCain spends with the president will be limited.”

Digg It!

Update

Flashback: “Bush And McCain: Photo-Op Friends Forever”

Politics

Veep Denial

[Isaac]

Over at The Plank, my co-blogger Josh Patashnik has an excellent post on how politicians and pundits badly miss the mark when evaluating the importance of the vice presidential selection. Rather than obsessing over the short term political gain–which according to the available evidence may not even exist–candidates selecting running mates should focus on the fact that their choice will be closely identified with their party for decades to come.

In my mind, the most ridiculous aspect of the veepstakes frenzy is the focus on vice presidential “qualities” that will supposedly help the presidential nominee. This can be seen most humorously in John Heilemann’s New York magazine article on the “possibility” of a McCain-Bloomberg ticket. The idea is crazy enough on its own, but this quote in the essay is priceless, and perfectly captures the degree to which the issue is blown completely out of proportion: “The GOP is losing on the economy by 10 to 15 points,” says Doug Schoen, who served as Bloomberg’s pollster in his mayoral runs. “With Mike on the ticket, that gap would quickly, dramatically close.” Instead of disputing this absurd statement, Heilemann even more ridiculously adds that the “McCain–Bloomberg–Arnold Schwarzenegger troika” would put California in play for the GOP!

Anyway, let this stand as a plea for no more Veep talk until at least late July. Okay, fine, how about June 1st?

Politics

Cap-and-trade investors eagerly await Bush’s departure.

The Financial Times notes today that the “departure from office of US President George W. Bush will give a ‘very promising‘ outlook to international talks on global warming and the $64bn market in greenhouse gas emissions,” according Yvo de Boer, the U.N.’s top official on climate change:

“The US is very promising. All three [presidential] candidates are interested in climate change, all three want international engagement, all three favour a cap-and-trade approach [on emissions], which augurs well for the continuation of the carbon market,” said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the parent treaty to the Kyoto protocol, in an interview with the Financial Times.

“The market in carbon was worth $64bn (40bn, £32bn) last year and is forecast to be worth $3,000bn by 2020 if the US joins it,” the Times adds. The fact that the three candidates are “willing to negotiate a new [climate change] treaty and support the setting up of an emissions market in the US –- a policy vehemently opposed by Mr Bush -– has come as a relief to carbon market investors.”

Climate Progress

Would Boxer’s bill cut CO2 emissions by 2020?

The short, snarky answer is “no — Boxer-Lieberman-Warner is never going to become law.” The longer, analytical answer, which is the primary subject of this post, is “probably not, thanks to the bill’s many cost containment measures, but it would take us off the business-as-usual emissions path.”

Before explaining why, let me make clear that the vote on B-L-W is a purely symbolic one since it as DOA as a bill can be (see here). Most of the media, most of the public, and most of the world are unlikely to get much detail on bill. They will just see whether a greenhouse gas cap & trade bill can get a majority, if not 60 votes, in the U.S. Senate. So, I would recommend any Senator vote for it — after giving a floor statement explaining that it was in fact too weak. I can’t see casting a protest vote against a symbolic bill while asserting it is too weak. The protest would get lost in the noise. Finally, it would be the height of hypocrisy for a conservative senator to cite progressive critiques of the bill, including mine, as a reasons to vote against it. Anyone who votes against this bill should at least have the guts to say whether they themselves think the bill is too weak or too strong.

WHY THE BOXER BILL WOULDN’T CUT U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS BY 2020
This story begins late Friday night, when Deep ‘emissions cut’ Throat sends me the World Resources Institute’s 14-page summary of the Boxer substitute to the Lieberman-Warner bill (here), with a note, “Does this mean no emission reductions until 2028? See bottom of page 6.” Intrigued, I turned to the bottom of page 6 and read this bullet:

  • If all cost containment mechanisms in the substitute are applied, the result could be almost no change in U.S. as compared to business as usual.

Uh-oh. When the solid analysts at WRI issue a warning, you can take it to the permit bank. I remember Deep ec Throat’s advice to me many years ago, “Follow the cost-containment money.” That’s what led to my post on McCain’s climate plan, “McCain speech, Part 2: Relying on offsets = Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.”

Now WRI cryptically says, “WRI intends to explore these issues further in forthcoming analyses.” But why wait for WRI’s solid detailed analysis, when I have Boxer’s full text here and my own dependable abacus? I’ll post this as a draft analysis and if any of you out there can find holes in it, let me know.

My rough calculations say that if every cost containment measure were fully used, then U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 could be about the same as if there were no bill. Needless to say, that’s not a good thing.

Needful to say, however, some of the cost containment measures are not super-cheap (although they are probably all much cheaper than the current cost of European Union’s emissions allowances) — and a lot of auction money is used to promote energy efficiency and low carbon technologies. So if this bill were to become law — which, of course, it won’t because last week it was moved from the “morgue to anatomy class” — then I very much doubt emissions would actually follow business as usual (BAU) trends.

I do believe, though, that emissions in 2020 would probably not be much different than they are today, which is still not a good thing.

So what could happen and what would happen? And should a Senator who is concerned about human-caused global warming vote for or against the bill on this basis?

Read more

Politics

Echoes of 2000

[Isaac]

First off, thanks to Matt for his hospitality. I’ll try and blog a bit about the exciting NBA playoffs, which seem to have started months ago and show no signs of ending (or, for that matter, fatigue). But Hendrik Hertzberg’s Comment in this week’s New Yorker is a good place to start, because it makes the connection between Hillary Clinton’s popular vote strategy, and the HBO movie ‘Recount,’ which premiered last night and was both diverting and unexceptional.

The problem with the Clinton strategy–and I don’t mean in political terms–is not that it shows her willingness to change positions in the name of political expediency. Rather, it’s that if the popular vote had been the metric all along, Obama would have used a different strategy that did not rely so heavily on caucus states and their (generally) small populations.

The strange thing about 2000 was that it was Bush who pursued a strategy that should have netted him a popular vote win; he spent many of the campaign’s last 72 hours in states like California and New Jersey, where he ended up getting destroyed. Meanwhile, Gore was working hard to win Florida and thus an electoral vote majority, but still managed to beat out Bush by half-a-million votes.

Incidentally, is there any doubt that if the Florida recount had gone the other way, Karl Rove would have been branded as a dope for allowing his candidate to spend time outside of Florida and Pennsylvania in that last week before the polls opened?

Yglesias

Vacation

[Matt]

Greetings. I left DC Saturday morning with a bunch of friends for a beach house in North Carolina, and I’ll be here on the Outer Banks all week on vacation. That doesn’t mean I won’t blog at all — I like blogging, and don’t think I’ve skipped a day since some time back in 2003 — but I don’t intend to keep up the full-service posting volume you normally see here on a business day. Consequently, I’m enlisting the assistance of some guest-bloggers. Specifically, we’ll have Kay Steiger, associate editor at Campus Progress (sort of like the Komsomol for the new liberal revival in America); Alyssa Rosenberg, staff correspondent at Government Executive (like Forbes or Business Week for the public sector is how they describe it); Kathy G. whose self-titled blog has been taking the intertubes by storm and describes her as “a shrill feminist, bleeding heart liberal, hardcore policy wonk, political junkie, ardent cinephile, and lover of 19th century novels”; Ta-Nehisi Coates author of a self-titled blog, this great article, The Beautiful Struggle, etc.; and last, out of white male solidarity, I’ve recruited Isaac Chotiner whose work you can often see at TNR or in yesterday’s Week in Review and who’s promised to say something about the NBA.

And, as I say, I’ll almost certainly keep chiming in. So enjoy! And be nice!

Politics

What’s $15 Billion Between Friends

Via Brad Delong, Stan Collender thinks the Bush administration embezzled $15 billion and nobody in the press seems to have noticed or really cared. Commenting on this report of money that can’t be properly accounted for in Iraq spending, he says “it appears as if virtually every procedure and law designed to prevent just this type of malfeasance was circumvented.”

Media

Liberal Guilt

Ron Rosenbaum sings the praises of so-called “liberal guilt.” I largely agree. He says, though, that “What I don’t understand is why there doesn’t seem to be any conservative guilt over racism.” I don’t actually find this puzzling at all: There’s little conservative guilt over racism because political exploitation of racial animosity has been an integral element of the conservative movement’s political strategy ever since the day when the conservative movement stopped issuing straightforward defenses of white supremacy.

Under the circumstances, anyone who feels too upset about racism can’t make it far in the conservative movement. You don’t need to be a racist, as such, but in your public work you need to express much much much more concern about the alleged evils of “political correctness” or some such than you do about actual racism.

Politics

Conservatives Spend Memorial Day Weekend Explaining Their Opposition To GI Bill

bush.jpgIn an editorial this morning, the New York Times chides President Bush for his resistance to the GI Bill, which he has pledged to veto:

Having saddled the military with a botched, unwinnable war, having squandered soldiers’ lives and failed them in so many ways, the commander in chief now resists giving the troops a chance at better futures out of uniform. [...]

So lavish with other people’s sacrifices, so reckless in pouring the national treasure into the sandy pit of Iraq, Mr. Bush remains as cheap as ever when it comes to helping people at home.

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino quickly unleashed an attack on the editorial, claiming the editorial board “doesn’t let the facts get in the way of expressing its vitriolic opinions — no matter how misleading they may be.” Yet, Perino offered no facts of her own to substantiate her anger.

Two of the White House’s key Senate allies — Ted Stevens and John McCain — have been disingenuously spewing misinformation about the GI Bill this weekend. Stevens warned of a “mass exodus” from the military if the 21st Century GI Bill goes into law. Similarly, McCain said today that the Webb GI Bill “would hurt the military and our country very badly.”

As ThinkProgress has previously noted, these fear-mongering claims about the GI Bill have little basis in reality. A recent CBO report showed that any loss in reenlistment rates is entirely made up for by increased military recruits.

The NYT editorial correctly notes, “[A]s a long-term investment in human capital, in education and job training, there is no good argument against an expanded, generous G.I. Bill.” But that won’t stop far-right conservatives from offering bad excuses, even on Memorial Day.

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