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The Table

Ilan Goldenberg spends some time listening to some folks who have experience dealing with Iranian officials and with difficult negotiations, and it turns out that nobody thinks table-pounding threats to keep military force “on the table” are a useful negotiating tool. Weirdly, it turns out that these experts believe the Iranian government is capable of realizing that the U.S. could, in principle, drop bombs on Iran based on their ability to perceive objective reality. They also claim that leading with idle threats to launch wars makes you look unreasonable, and tends to poison the wells for productive talks.

Strange stuff — sounds like appeasement talk to me.

Economy

McCain On Track To Repeat Bush’s Dismal Record On Job Creation

Paul Krugman’s most recent blog post has a great chart highlighting Bush’s dismal record of job creation, comparing it to job creation during the Clinton administration:

krugman.JPG
This chart alone is striking. Job growth under Bush was abysmal, when compared to the eight previous years of steady increase. Taking Krugman’s chart a step further, David Madland of the Center for American Progress compares Bush’s performance on job creation not just to Clinton, but to the other 41 American presidents who have come before him. Madland concludes that aside from Herbert Hoover — the only American president to ever LOSE jobs during his term in office — Bush has the worst record on job creation in this country.Now going back to Krugman’s, and Dean Baker’s point, we agree that it is absurd to suggest that McCain’s economic plan is more committed to job creation than that of his competitor. If the Washington Post is going to discuss McCain’s “emphasis on job creation,” then it would be disingenuous to leave out the other hallmark of his proposal: a continuation of the Bush tax cuts with particular weight on reducing corporate taxation.

According to a study by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office on policy responses to short-term economic weakness, the focal point of McCain’s plan, a cut in the corporate tax rate, is fundamentally flawed:

The most common form of a general cut in business taxes is a reduction in the corporate tax rate. This approach, however, is not a particularly cost-effective method of stimulating business spending: Increasing the after-tax income of businesses typically does not create an incentive for them to spend more on labor or to produce more, because production depends on the ability to sell output.

So let’s connect the dots. McCain wants to follow Bush’s lead on tax cuts — not only extend them past their 2010 expiration, but deepen them further by cutting the corporate rate from 35 percent down to 25 percent. A cut in the corporate tax rate is not only an inefficient means of creating jobs, but as Krugman and Madland point out, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy have resulted in embarrassingly low levels of job creation.

So unless John McCain is running against Herbert Hoover in the fall, any competitor will find themselves with greater “emphasis on job creation” than the Maverick from Arizona.

Politics

Rush Limbaugh’s cousin appointed to federal bench.

Today, Steven Limbaugh Jr., cousin of right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh, was confirmed to the U.S. District Court for the District of Eastern Missouri. President Bush nominated Steven Limbaugh to the position in December. As ThinkProgress has noted, the Bush administration has close ties to Rush Limbaugh, granting him access to Tony Snow, Condoleezza Rice, Donald Rumsfeld, Karl Rove, and Vice President Cheney. Last fall, Limbaugh was treated to his own private confab with Bush. (HT: Crooks and Liars)

Economy

McCain: Not What Women Want

Our guest blogger is Adam Jentleson, the Communications and Outreach Director for the Hyde Park Project at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

mccain1.JPGMuch has been made about John McCain’s efforts to court women voters. Those efforts are not going so well. As today’s Gallup poll shows, McCain’s support among women is falling fast.

As Disco Stu said, “If these trends continue… Ayyy.” And it’s a safe bet that they will – because the more women learn about McCain’s policy positions, the less they’re going to like him. Consider:

McCain opposes efforts to ensure that women get paid equal wages for equal work. Women make 77 cents for every dollar men earn, adding up to hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions of dollars over the course of a career and retirement. But McCain recently skipped a vote on a critical bill needed to advance women’s right to equal pay because he thought “it would lead to more lawsuits”; he told a 14 year-old girl who asked about it, “I don’t believe that this would do anything to help the rights of women, except maybe help trial lawyers and others in that profession.”

McCain supports a Constitutional Amendment banning abortion. On “Meet the Press” in 2000, McCain repeatedly told host Tim Russert that he supported a Constitutional ban on all abortions. Russert pressed:

MR. RUSSERT: But, Senator, women across the country would say, “Senator McCain, prior to Roe vs. Wade, hundreds of thousands of women a year went to the back alleys to have abortions.”

SEN. McCAIN: I understand that.

MR. RUSSERT: Many died.

SEN. McCAIN: I understand that. [NBC, Meet the Press, 1/30/00]

McCain thinks Roe v. Wade should be overturned. Sen. McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign website states that he “believes Roe v. Wade is a flawed decision that must be overturned.”

McCain supported limits on access to contraceptives. McCain supported limits on access to contraceptives. In 2003, McCain opposed legislation to expand access to emergency contraceptives. And in 1994, he voted for an amendment put forward by former Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC) to prohibit distribution of condoms, contraceptives, or drugs financed by federal aid without parental consent. In 2003, McCain opposed legislation to expand access to emergency contraceptives. And in 1994, he voted for an amendment put forward by former Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC) to prohibit distribution of condoms, contraceptives, or drugs financed by federal aid without parental consent.

McCain said he will appoint “clones of Alito and Roberts.” The effect of a conservative judiciary would not just be limited to choice and privacy. Over the past two decades, there have been a large number of 5-to-4 decisions limiting the reach of civil rights statutes. We’d feel the effects of having Alito/Roberts clones on the Supreme Court, as well as on lower courts, for generations to come.

As our new report outlines, these are just some of the extreme positions McCain has taken. He has also opposed health care for poor children, voted against the minimum wage seven times (most minimum wage workers are women), and has proposed no solutions for bringing America’s family and medical leave policies into the 21st Century to help working women balance the demands of work and family.

Of course, these issues don’t just impact women – but if McCain is looking to get them on his side, he’s got a tough sell ahead of him.

Politics

McCain in ’05: I’m ‘totally in agreement’ with Bush on ‘the most important issues of the day.’

bushmccain.jpgSen. John McCain (R-AZ) is working hard to dispel the notion that his presidency would effectively constitute a third Bush term, saying recently that he has “disagreed strongly with the Bush administration” on Iraq. But McCain took a very different stance in June 2005 when he told Tim Russert that he has “been totally in agreement and support of President Bush” on “the transcendent issues“:

RUSSERT: The fact is you are different than George Bush.

SEN. McCAIN: No. No. I–the fact is that I’m different but the fact is that I have agreed with President Bush far more than I have disagreed. And on the transcendent issues, the most important issues of our day, I’ve been totally in agreement and support of President Bush.

McCain went on to list the issues where he had been “in agreement” with Bush: “the war on terror, the war in Iraq, national security, national defense, support of men and women in the military, fiscal discipline, a number of other issues.”

Update

Huffington Post has the video here.

Politics

GOP Doom Watch

Michael Gerson:

The style and approach of general election campaigns are often conditioned by the method of victory in the primaries. The Obama team ends the season like a battle-worn Army division — organized, relentless and skilled at fundraising, registering voters and getting them to the polls. Members of the McCain team feel more like survivors of a near-death experience — convinced that the virtues of their candidate and the blessings of the political gods matter more than the money, phone banks and door-knocking of traditional politics.

This worries some Republican strategists. One recently described the McCain campaign to me as the political equivalent of a Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland movie: Every morning a few guys get together and say, “Let’s put on a show!” McCain’s state campaign organizations, coalition outreach and get-out-the-vote efforts are weak or nonexistent. But McCain campaign officials are convinced that they will win — if they win — in a different manner than the methodical Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004. McCain will either catch fire, or he won’t — and traditional efforts to boost turnout, in this view, are not likely to make the difference. Given its history, the McCain campaign is understandably proud of its stripped down, seat-of-the-pants, insurgent campaign style. But it may eventually be useful to have a serious campaign organization in, say, Colorado.

As Noam Scheiber says, it’s hard to see any comparison in the merits of these approaches. If Gerson’s take on the McCain campaign is accurate, then McCain is just doomed — you can’t run a nationwide, one-on-one, months-long campaign in the kind of seat-of-your-pants way that worked for McCain in the primaries.

This sounds like hubris born of a staff and a candidate that are unwilling to admit how much factors outside their control (namely, the Rudy collapse and the Huckaboom) played in delivering them a win in the primary.

Security

In Debate Over Permanent Bases In Iraq, U.S. Seeks Authorization For War In Iran

maliki.gifThe ongoing negotiations between Iraqi leaders and the Bush administration over the future role of the military occupation “have turned into an increasingly acrimonious public debate.”

The Bush administration’s demand for 58 permanent bases in Iraq — a near doubling of the current 30 bases — are causing Iraqis to warn that the status of forces agreement would be “more abominable than the occupation.” The administration is reportedly holding hostage “some $50bn of Iraq’s money in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to pressure the Iraqi government into signing an agreement.”

The reason the White House is so hell-bent on signing a long-term agreement may have less to do with Iraq and more to do with Iran. According to press reports of the ongoing negotiations, the Bush administration is seeking the “power to determine if a hostile act from another country is aggression against Iraq.” Ali al Adeeb, a leading member of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa party, confirmed:

The Americans insist so far that is they who define what is an aggression on Iraq and what is democracy inside Iraq…if we come under aggression we should define it and ask for help.

The administration’s request would seemingly allow the U.S. to brand Iran as an enemy of Iraq and attack Iran in the name of defending Iraq pursuant to a legal obligation under the status of forces agreement.

Other details from press accounts confirm that the Bush administration has one eye on Iran in the course of its negotiations with Iraqis. The Washington Post explains that the administration is seeking “the prerogative for U.S. forces to conduct operations without approval from the Iraqi government.” Moreover, the U.S. wants control over Iraq’s airpsace:

The American negotiators also called for continued control over Iraqi airspace and the right to refuel planes in the air, according to [Sami al-Askari, a leading Shiite politician], positions he said added to concerns that the United States was preparing to use Iraq as a base to attack Iran.

Since the administration is unlikely to get an Iran war authorized through Congress, it’s instead trying to sneak it through the Iraqi parliament.

Digg It!

Economy

Did Senator McCain Change His Mind On Taxes Again?

Our guest bloggers are Center for American Progress Action Fund fellows Robert Gordon and James Kvaal.

The highly respected Tax Policy Center (TPC) has posted a new side-by-side analysis comparing the McCain and Obama tax agendas. If accurate, this post indicates that the McCain team has described to TPC policies that differ dramatically from policies that remain on McCain’s website and, in one instance, were reiterated by McCain just yesterday.

Alternative Minimum Tax. Yesterday, McCain said he supports “a phase-out of the Alternative Minimum Tax.” His website still says he will “permanently repeal the AMT.” TPC says, however, that McCain wants to “[e]xtend and index 2007 AMT patch, further increase exemption by 5 percent in excess of inflation after 2013 (temporarily).” That’s relief from the AMT, but well short of “permanent repeal” or “phase out.”

Corporate Expensing. McCain’s website still features his proposal “to permit corporations to immediately deduct the cost of equipment investment, providing a valuable pro-growth investment incentive.” That is enormously costly. In a fact sheet also still available on the website, the McCain campaign compares this proposal to a “modest” partial expensing measure scored by the Treasury Department as costing $1.2 trillion over 10 years. But TPC says that McCain is now proposing only to “allow first-year deduction of 3 and 5-year equipment,” and that McCain also wants a complementary repeal of the interest tax deduction. The TPC also says that McCain’s proposal “expires.” With these modifications, the proposal’s cost will be less than 2% of the proposal that McCain once deemed “modest.”

Substantively, these changes are mostly (modest) moves in the right direction — although they also show McCain manipulating phase-ins and phase-outs just as President Bush has done for the last eight years. But our first question is: What is the McCain policy–what’s on their website, or what they seem to have told TPC?

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