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Yglesias

Good News

Well here’s a story that certainly brought a smile to my face:

Yet all three of his choices — Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as the rival turned secretary of state; Gen. James L. Jones, the former NATO commander, as national security adviser, and Robert M. Gates, the current and future defense secretary — were selected in large part because they have embraced a sweeping shift of resources in the national security arena.

The shift, which would come partly out of the military’s huge budget, would create a greatly expanded corps of diplomats and aid workers that, in the vision of the incoming Obama administration, would be engaged in projects around the world aimed at preventing conflicts and rebuilding failed states.

Whether they can make the change — one that Mr. Obama started talking about in the summer of 2007, when his candidacy was a long shot at best — “will be the great foreign policy experiment of the Obama presidency,” one of his senior advisers said recently.

But the adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said the three have all embraced “a rebalancing of America’s national security portfolio” after a huge investment in new combat capabilities during the Bush years.

This is a really good idea! We do spend way too much on the military, and we do severely under-resource other elements of our foreign policy strategy. If Clinton and Gates and Jones are all on board for a big push to turn this around, and that’s why Obama wants them all on his team, then that strikes me as a very good reason.

Yglesias

Holbrooke on Bundy

jacoby01_1_1.jpg

Richard Holbrooke reviews a book on McGeorge Bundy and puts a liberal foot forward:

Bundy never believed in negotiations with the Vietcong or the North Vietnamese. This, coupled with his enduring faith in the value of military force in almost any terrain or circumstance, were his greatest errors. They contributed to a tragic failure. With the nation now about to inaugurate a new president committed to withdraw combat troops from Iraq and succeed in Afghanistan, the lessons of Vietnam are still relevant. McGeorge Bundy’s story, of early brilliance and a late-in-life search for the truth about himself and the war, is an extraordinary cautionary tale for all Americans.

Seems sensible to me.

Yglesias

Demand Is High — Let’s Drop the Price

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There’s a curious tendency for the portion of peoples’ brains that deals with supply, demand, and price issues to stop functioning when the subject turns to parking. Andrew Samwick has a great example:

Second, my otherwise delightfully governed town has this practice of putting bags over the parking meters around the holiday shopping season. I associate it with the downtown merchants, since the meters north of downtown (say, near my office) remain operational. I can’t figure this one out.

  1. If you believe that the meters are there to regulate access to the town’s scarce resource of parking spaces, then you need that regulation even more, not less, during the busy holiday season.

  2. If you believe that the meters are there to raise money for the town, then your best opportunity to get that money is when you know demand will be high, like during the busy holiday season.

Presumably, the reason the town does this is to accommodate a request from the downtown merchants. But why do they perceive this to be in their self-interest? Why does “free (but scarce) parking” attract people to drive to town? Wouldn’t the better marketing approach be “still cheap but available parking,” given that the cost of the parking (about $1 an hour) is still small relative to the cost of whatever the visitors are going to buy?

If it were me, I’d raise the fees during the holiday season (and lower some other local tax). Yet anoSether reason why I will never be town manager.

But the world could really use more town managers like Samwick! Virtually ever town or city in the United States of America could adopt smarter parking pricing policies and suddenly find itself with parking spaces more available, taxes lower, higher retail sales, etc. See also the problems with too cheap parking at Harvard Square.

Yglesias

The Downturn in China

Things are looking down in the far east, just like everywhere else:

China’s growth rate has been forecast to be about 9 percent in 2008, down from 11.9 percent the year before and close to the 8 percent that economists say China must maintain in order to keep the labor market stable.

“China is under growing tension from its large population, limited resources and environment problems, and needs faster reform of its economic growth pattern to achieve sustainable development,” Hu said, according to the People’s Daily newspaper, the official Communist Party newspaper. He did not provide specifics.

This hardly counts as an economic model, but for my part I just don’t see how China could possibly maintain 8 percent growth if we have simultaneous recessions in Japan, the US, and the Eurozone. And all indications are that we’ll have simultaneous recessions in those countries. Keep in mind that six percent growth would be, for a country that’s not China, an impressive figure — especially under bad conditions. But if China is unable “to keep the labor market stable” then I think you have to wonder about what the consequences of that would be for their political stability.

Politics

Former interrogator slams torture: Torture has cost nearly as many lives as 9/11.

In a Washington Post op-ed today, a former Special Operations interrogator who worked in Iraq in 2006 sharply criticizes American torture techniques as ineffective and dangerous. “Torture and abuse cost American lives,” he writes:

I learned in Iraq that the No. 1 reason foreign fighters flocked there to fight were the abuses carried out at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo. Our policy of torture was directly and swiftly recruiting fighters for al-Qaeda in Iraq. … It’s no exaggeration to say that at least half of our losses and casualties in that country have come at the hands of foreigners who joined the fray because of our program of detainee abuse. The number of U.S. soldiers who have died because of our torture policy will never be definitively known, but it is fair to say that it is close to the number of lives lost on Sept. 11, 2001. How anyone can say that torture keeps Americans safe is beyond me — unless you don’t count American soldiers as Americans.

The writer, who used a pseudonym for the article, adds that when he switched his team’s techniques to a rapport-building method, they found enormous success. One detainee told the author, “I thought you would torture me, and when you didn’t, I decided that everything I was told about Americans was wrong. That’s why I decided to cooperate.”

Update

The author, who is writing a book on his experiences as an interrogator, notes that the Pentagon tried to redact non-classified information and block parts of his book. “Apparently, some members of the military command are not only unconvinced by the arguments against torture; they don’t even want the public to hear them,” he writes.

Culture

Stadium Deals

Here’s a little local news while I’m still in NYC from the always-appalling universe of stadium dealmaking:

The Bloomberg administration was so intent on obtaining a free luxury suite for its own use at the new Yankee Stadium, newly released e-mail messages show, that the mayor’s aides pushed for a larger suite and free food, and eventually gave the Yankees 250 additional parking spaces in exchange.

The parking spaces were given to the team for the private use of Yankees officials, players and others; the spaces were originally planned for public parking. The city also turned over the rights to three new billboards along the Major Deegan Expressway, and whatever revenue they generate, as part of the deal.

Bad stadium policy meets bad parking policy and a good time is had by all.

Media

Will: Economic Crisis May Only Be ‘A Financial Problem,’ ‘Rest Of Economy Is Doing Rather Well’

Today on ABC’s This Week roundtable, conservative columnist George Will claimed it is possible that the economy may only be suffering from a “financial problem” while the rest of the economy is performing “rather well”:

WILL: All will be forgiven if things turn out well. And it’s just possible, Donna, that the economy is not going down the drain. 94, 95 percent of all mortgages in this country are being paid off on time. Ninety-four percent of those who want to work are working. This may be much more of a financial problem, that is, one sector, while the rest of the economy is doing rather well.

Watch it:

Will’s rosy assessment of the economy is deeply misguided. It’s clear that the financial industry is not the only sector of the economy in crisis mode. Some examples:

Construction Industry: The construction sector is “beset by one of the biggest drops in employment in the current economic downturn” and had an unemployment rate of 10.8 percent in October.

Labor Market
: The economy lost nearly 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of 2008, including 240,000 jobs in October. Unemployment is now at roughly 6.5 percent.

Housing Industry
: New home sales in September 2008 were 33.1. percent lower than the same time last year. “The median price for existing homes fell by 9.0% and prices for new homes by 9.1% during the same period.” One in 11 mortgages is delinquent or in foreclosure.

Auto Industry
: The auto industry just experienced another month of “record low sales.” Recently, Detroit automakers plead with Congress for a financial rescue package in order to avoid bankruptcy.

Will’s portrayals of the state of the economy have been abysmal. In June, he claimed that average Americans “are better off today than they were in 2000-2001.” In July, Will stuck up for former McCain adviser Phil Gramm’s “nation of whiners” comment, stating that Americans “are the crybabies of the western world. In fact, we have an extraordinarily low pain threshold.”

Media

Kristol’s Next War

In addition to being a booster of the two actual wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Bill Kristol and/or his publication has, at one time or another, also called for the United States to go to war with North Korea, Syria, Iran, and Sudan. And now he’s got another war he’s like to start:

And while [Bush is] at it, perhaps he could tell various admirals to stop moaning about how difficult it would be to deal with the pirates off the coast of Somalia (isn’t keeping the shipping lanes open a core mission of the Navy?) and order the Navy to clobber them. If need be, the Marines would no doubt be glad to recapitulate their origins and join in by going ashore in Africa to destroy the pirates’ safe havens.

I’m not one to say that we should blindly defer to the preferences of the military brass, but surely they’re due some deference. Is the Navy really “moaning” about how difficult it would be to stop the pirates, or are they perhaps accurately describing difficulties? Where does Kristol get off adopting a condescending tone on this subject? The Marines “would no doubt be glad” to spearhead an amphibious assault on land-based Somali targets? Has he asked anyone about that? I think a lot of Marines feel that the Corps has a lot on its plate in Iraq and Afghanistan. And certainly I’ve never heard someone with legitimate knowledge of the regional situation indicate that a simple “destroy the pirates’ safe havens” operation would work. You’d need to address the fact that the whole country is in a persistent state of anarchy.

One might further note that the whole situation is a big unintended consequence of the Christmas 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. Something that was done with full US support and loudly cheered by The Weekly Standard. But thought he consequence was unintended, it was widely predicted by people who knew what they were talking about. I harp on this because it’s a subject I was prescient on, but I wasn’t prescient due to any incredible leaps of genius — I just listened to the International Crisis Group rather than, you know, The Weekly Standard. But now Kristol wants to go off on yet another half-baked invasion scheme. Or, rather, he wants to posture as favoring such. Because the best wars to monger for are the ones that don’t actually happen.

Politics

Bush’s last-minute rule gutting worker protections may violate his own guidelines.

The Labor Department is attempting to complete a rule which “would add a step to the lengthy process of developing standards to protect workers’ health” and would thus make it more difficult to regulate toxic substances and chemicals that affect workers on the job. The New York Times notes that this proposal may violate the White House’s own memorandum:

The timing of the proposal appears to violate a memorandum issued in early May by Joshua B. Bolten, the White House chief of staff. “Except in extraordinary circumstances,” Mr. Bolten wrote, “regulations to be finalized in this administration should be proposed no later than June 1, 2008, and final regulations should be issued no later than Nov. 1, 2008.”

The proposal is “one of about 20 highly contentious rules the Bush administration is planning to issue in its final weeks,” the Times notes. For more on Bush’s last-minute regulations and proposals, read ThinkProgress’s report, “Bush’s Backward Sprint To The Finish.”

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