ThinkProgress Logo

Climate Progress

An open letter to James Hansen on the real truth about stabilizing at 350 ppm

To James Hansen (and his fellow 350 ppm-ers):

You make a compelling case we must ultimately return atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to 350 parts per million to avoid catastrophic climate impacts (see “Stabilize at 350 ppm or risk ice-free planet, warn NASA, Yale, Sheffield, Versailles, Boston et al“).

But you have made an uncompelling case about how President-elect Obama should go about achieving 350 ppm in your new draft essay Tell Barack Obama the Truth — The Whole Truth and in previous essays (see here). You are, for instance, overly dismissive of cap-and-trade and overly enamored of a carbon tax, when, in fact, neither holds any prospect whatsoever of achieving your goal. Your discussion of as-yet non-commercial 4th generation nuclear technologies is equally off the point, as we’ll see.

If the truth is that we must have a target of 350 ppm, then you must be equally truthful in insisting on national and international policies that could achieve that goal. So far, you haven’t. Nobody has.

I have yet to seen anybody lay out just what is required to achieve 350 ppm from an energy technology and policy perspective, so let me do so here using the incredibly demanding carbon targets from your paper:

hansen350-emissions.jpg

[Note: Sadly the ship has sailed on your blue line. We hit global carbon emissions from fossil fuels of 8.5 billion metric tons (GtC) in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project (see here).]

Absent such specificity, everything else is pure handwaving. The simplest tool for explaining the scale of the solution is the much misunderstood “stabilization wedges” approach of Princecton’s Socolow and Pacala (technical paper here, less technical one here, my discussion of its analytical problems here). Used properly, it is almost as good as an expensive economic and energy model (see “IEA report, Part 2: Climate Progress has the 450-ppm solution about right“).

Wedges are strategies that reduce emissions steadily until they achieve a 1 GtC/year saving — in 50 years in Princeton’s original framework, but for those in a hurry like all of us now are, it must be less.

The bad news about 350 ppm is that you need some 18 standard (50-year) wedges from 2010 to 2060, if I’m reading your paper right — plus a whole lot more after that — just to be on a path to get back to 350 ppm in 2150. The really bad news is that, to achieve your frontloaded reductions from shutting down all traditional coal plants in the next two decades, you need eight of those wedges by 2030.

Why is this bad news? Three reason:

  1. An individual wedge is a staggering amount of carbon-free energy
  2. There isn’t political support to do even a single 20-year wedge today.
  3. Doing eight such accelerated wedges simultaneously is far beyond the capability of the market on its own no matter how high a carbon tax you impose.

Here is one possible list of all the (20-year) wedges the world must achieve simultaneously starting almost immediately:

Read more

Politics

Chambliss’s Profligate Spending On Golf Outings With Lobbyists

nantucket_fundraiser_golf_n.jpg Since 2005, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who is currently locked in a tough run-off election battle against Democrat Jim Martin, has been in charge of the Republican Majority Fund. The PAC, established in the 1970s, was set up to help fund GOP candidates. However, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports today, Chambliss has instead used it as a personal fund to ingratiate himself to lobbyists, reward his political contributors, and fund his golfing habit:

Under Chambliss, however, 68 percent of the Majority Fund’s spending – about $1 million – has gone for travel, golf events, meals and administrative costs, reports to the Federal Election Commission show. Political contributions comprised just 32 percent of the committee’s spending, or $472,500.

In 2007 and 2008, the Majority Fund’s political donations accounted for 26 percent of its spending, the second-lowest among the 25 largest leadership groups. [...]

[O]f the top 10 recipients of the Majority Fund’s money since 2007, only one was a political organization.

Five were golf resorts.

Chambliss is an avid golfer. Despite having a “bum knee” that kept him out of military service in Vietnam, Chambliss ranked as the #2 golfer in the Senate and the 33rd best golfer in Washington, DC, according to a 2005 feature by Golf Digest. That same year, while his colleagues were in a closed-door session discussing pre-Iraq war intelligence, Chambliss took the day off to golf with Tiger Woods.

Therefore, it’s perhaps not surprising that two months after taking over the Republican Majority Fund, “Chambliss put on a golf outing at the Ritz-Carlton in Naples, Fla. — the first of 20 at top courses and resorts: Pebble Beach in California; The Breakers in Palm Beach, Fla.; The Greenbrier in West Virginia, among others. Chambliss’ companions on these trips were, with few exceptions, registered lobbyists and their clients.” In the past two years, Chambliss has also used these official funds to golf with lobbyists for defense contractors, AIG, and Fannie Mae.

In 2007, Chambliss even spent more than $7,000 of the Republican Majority Fund’s money on “golf supplies.” He must feel right at home with his colleagues in Congress and the Bush administration.

Yglesias

Tough Choices

A little slice of the developing Citigroup rescue:

Regulators were debating various terms of the arrangement on Sunday, including whether the government would receive preferred stock or warrants, which are instruments that give holders the right to buy stock. Preferred stock would be more beneficial to taxpayers because Citigroup would pay dividends on those shares; warrants would be more attractive to Citigroup’s existing shareholders, since they would not immediately dilute the value of their investments as much as preferred stock.

What, exactly, is the nature of the debate?:

Regulator 1: Preferred stock would be beneficial for taxpayers, whose interests we represent.
Regulator 2: But warrants would be more favorable for existing shareholders, whose interests we don’t represent.
Regulator 3: This sure is a tough decision!

I’m confused.

UPDATE: Knowledgeable correspondents say the NYT‘s summary of these issues is wrong. Warrants could be more favorable to taxpayers under certain scenarios. In particular, if coming to Citibank’s aid results in Citibank shares being much higher five years from now than they are today, then warrants would be better for taxpayers. Basically, under a warrants scenario if the rescue works really well then the taxpayer makes a lot of money.

Yglesias

Mission Accomplished

I haven’t really had the chance I would like to focus on the NBA so far this season, and the deplorable state of the Wizards hasn’t given me a ton of incentive to change that. But lo and behold Donnie Walsh has actually succeeded in making the deals necessary to ensure that the Knicks will have the cap space necessary to make a max offer to LeBron James (or Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire) in 2012.

Politics

Boehner Dismisses Employee Intimidation, Claims Unionization Elections Already Are ‘Almost…Automatic’

Today on Fox News Sunday, host Chris Wallace echoed right-wing talking points to ask Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) loaded question about the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA): “Why is a secret ballot okay and desirable for Congress, “but you want to take it away for workers?” Wallace was referring to Democratic caucus’s vote on Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), and was lifted almost exactly from conservatives like Ed Morrissey, the Club for Growth, the Free Republic, and the Corner.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) dismissed Hoyer’s explanation that EFCA is needed to help workers who face employer intimidation form unions, claiming that “there’s almost an automatic election” if enough employees support unionization:

BOEHNER: If you get more than half of your employees to sign a card, there’s almost an automatic election.

WALLACE: It does sometimes get delayed though, sir.

BOEHNER: It may get delayed but it’s pretty hard to stop an election.

Boehner called the EFCA “an affront to the American people” and pledged to do “everything we can” to block the bill. Watch it:

Despite conservative fearmongering, the EFCA preserves the secret ballot election process, while also giving workers the option to unionize if a majority signs a petition to do so. Boehner is simply wrong when he says elections are automatic: Employers routinely set up hurdles to delay or prevent elections. “One out of four employers actually fire workers for trying to form a union,” the California Labor Federation explains. “Many employers hire expensive lawyers and anti-union consultants to delay any union election, sometimes for years.” Boehner is apparently blind to employers’ obstructionist tactics to prevent unionization:

– 92% of employers whose workers try to organize force workers to attend anti-union meetings and workers are disciplined or fired for leaving.
– 78% of employers force employees to meet with their supervisor to be interrogated about whether they want a union and asked to reveal which co-workers are union supporters.
– 75% of employers hire union-busting consultants to advise them on how to run an effective anti-union campaign.
– 51% of employers threaten to close the plant if workers vote for the union.
– 25% of employers actually FIRE at least one worker for supporting the union, even though it is against the law.

Such widespread anti-union intimidation efforts “takes the ‘secret’ out of the ‘secret ballot’ — the most common conservative mischaracterization of current union organizing rules,” writes the Center for American Progress Action Fund’s David Madland.

Media

Sources of Media Bias

Tyler Cowen observes:

I might add that Washington Post restaurant reviews are far too positive. If WP readers were simply told “There are hardly any good restaurants in your crummy little city,” this wouldn’t do much for WP circulation or advertising revenue.

This sort of thing — the need to keep running a business — is the real source of media bias in all domains. Note that it also wouldn’t work to say “there are a bunch of good restaurants in your city, but nothing much has changed in the past 18 months.” Note similarly that things like People‘s “50 sexiest people” list have implausible levels of turnover. Sometimes this sort of thing can have really pernicious effects, like US News‘s college rankings which aren’t taken seriously by anyone who understands the issues but seem to have a large distorting effect on the policies of many American colleges and universities.

Yglesias

Risk and Reward

robertrubin2_narrowweb__300x4320_1.jpg

A whole lot to chew on in today’s New York Times piece on Citigroup, but this graf is of particular interest to me:

“Chuck Prince going down to the corporate investment bank in late 2002 was the start of that process,” a former Citigroup executive said of the bank’s big C.D.O. push. “Chuck was totally new to the job. He didn’t know a C.D.O. from a grocery list, so he looked for someone for advice and support. That person was Rubin. And Rubin had always been an advocate of being more aggressive in the capital markets arena. He would say, ‘You have to take more risk if you want to earn more.’”

Obviously not what you want on your epitaph as the company goes under. But at the same time, it’s perfectly true. The more risk you take on, the more potential for profit. And this is what’s so disturbing about what’s going on in terms of financial institution bailouts. I’m happy to believe the folks who say these kind of interventions are necessary. But if they’re going to be done, there’s both the practical question of how to regulate so as to avoid moral hazard, and also a huge question of social justice. If people can get very rich taking on risks that are partially offloaded onto the public at large, we have a problem. Or, more specifically, we need to tax those people and use the revenues to better-assist ordinary people in dealing with risks.

Consider the contrasting fates of a financial sector CEO who earned tons of money and through mismanagement caused his firm to go bankrupt and that of someone who operates the cash register at Circuit City and through no fault of her own wound up laid off. Both are looking at unemployment; perhaps even a prolonged spell of unemployment. But the CEO was living very high on the hog throughout the fat years, the woman at the cash register not so much. And the CEO, even with a large swathe of his fortune wiped out by the crash, will still be left with savings and assets that dwarf those of the average American. And why? Skill-biased technological change? Was the woman running the cash register really not competent enough to run Citigroup into the ground? Anyone can make money while the market goes up and lose it when the market goes down.

Yglesias

Congressional Dormitory

capitol_building_address_1.jpg

It’s quite true that members of congress who aren’t independently wealthy are placed under some real financial strain by the modern-day need to maintain two residences. My understanding is that it used to be the case that most members would simply move to DC. Congress works in DC, and people normally live in the metro area where their job is located. But moving oneself and one’s family to the dread Beltway has become a political liability, so people don’t do it. Thus, Atrios’s plan for “the construction of some sort of Congressional dormitory type thing” has some real merit to it. At the same time, it sounds hilarious — I’m imagining fun pranks and keggers.

The larger issue here, however, is that members of congress and high-level executive branch officials need to be paid more. These people make decent salaries — they’re not poor. But at the same time, folks like a backbench member of the House of Representatives or the Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America are supposed to be important actors in American society. It’s not a good idea for them to be making orders of magnitude less money than important people in the private sector. Somewhat less, sure. But over time the relative salary of a cabinet secretary versus a corporate executive has eroded enormously for no good reason — it’s not as if the budget savings involved are large enough to make an appreciable difference.

Meanwhile, this becomes a problem when you get deeper down into the regulatory agencies. If the EPA is supposed to be able to assess the level of pollution somewhere and take a bad actor to court if he violates the law, then the EPA needs to have good scientists and good lawyers working for it. That means those people need to be paid salaries that are competitive with what people in those fields can make in the private sector. If you don’t do that, then you either get people who are incompetent or, worse, the “revolving door” phenomenon in which the real value of government work is to cash in later by defecting to the private sector in a way that corrupts the regulatory process.

Politics

George Will: ‘The First New Deal Didn’t Work’

Economists on both the left and right broadly agree that the need for stimulative government spending is necessary to prevent a further collapse of the global economic system — just as the New Deal and the deficit spending of World War II restored the health of the global economy in the last century.

This morning on ABC’s This Week, conservative columnist George Will echoed the false right-wing meme that FDR’s New Deal policies made the Depression worse:

Before we go into a new New Deal, can we just acknowledge that the first New Deal didn’t work?

Watch it:

As Nobel-laureate Paul Krugman wrote recently in the New York Times, “There’s a whole intellectual industry, mainly operating out of right-wing think tanks, devoted to propagating the idea that F.D.R. actually made the Depression worse. So it’s important to know that most of what you hear along those lines is based on deliberate misrepresentation of the facts. The New Deal brought real relief to most Americans.”

Krugman observed that the true short-comings of the New Deal policies resulted from the fact that they were not bold enough over the short-term:

[T]he truth is that the New Deal wasn’t as successful in the short run as it was in the long run. And the reason for F.D.R.’s limited short-run success, which almost undid his whole program, was the fact that his economic policies were too cautious. [...]

In short, Mr. Obama’s chances of leading a new New Deal depend largely on whether his short-run economic plans are sufficiently bold. Progressives can only hope that he has the necessary audacity.

Brad DeLong offers this chart to emphasize the value of the New Deal:

20081117_ef7d74m2gnw9citedndea81xqh_1.jpg

Update

Paul Rosenberg has more.

Older

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up