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Climate Progress

NSIDC: Arctic melt passes the point of no return, “We hate to say we told you so, but we did”

ice-free.jpg

The UK’s Independent reports on a study to be presented Tuesday to the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco by top cryosphere scientists:

Scientists have found the first unequivocal evidence that the Arctic region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world at least a decade before it was predicted to happen.

Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is accumulating heat in the ocean. The phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15 years and the findings will further raise concerns that the Arctic has already passed the climatic tipping-point towards ice-free summers, beyond which it may not recover.

The study is from scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), who have been regularly reporting on the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic ice over the past several years (see NSIDC stunner: Arctic ice at “Likely Record-Low Volume”). It bears repeating that “The recent [Arctic] sea-ice retreat is larger than in any of the (19) IPCC [climate] models” — and that was a Norwegian expert in 2005. The retreat has accelerated in the past three years.

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Climate Progress

World’s first mass-market plug-in hybrid is from … China, for $22,000?

BYD F3DM plug-in electric car photo

The AP reports today from Shanghai:

BYD presented the vehicle, known as the F3DM, in a ceremony in the southern city of Shenzhen…. The vehicle can run up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) on its electric engine, and when it runs low on power shifts to a back up gasoline engine. Its battery can fully charge in nine hours from a regular electrical outlet, or much faster at BYD’s own charging stations, the company said in a statement.

The car will sell for 149,800 yuan ($22,000), about the same as many Chinese-made mid-sized cars, it said.

One can certainly be skeptical about such an announcement from a company that “didn’t even make cars a few years ago,” as Treehugger notes. “Until recently, it was only a battery maker (the biggest in China).” One might also be skeptical about plug-ins from a company whose name stands for Build Your Dreams and which touts its all-electric F3e vehicle as “Inheriting the design concepts of being Faddy, Faithworthy and Futuramic.”

Then again, one should be skeptical about the overdesigned Chevy Volt from a company that has a long history of overpromising and under-delivering innovation, a company that has mismanaged itself to the brink of bankruptcy. And “MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a unit of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., invested in a 9.9 percent stake” in BYD, something GM can only dream about.

Green Car Congress has more of the specs:

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Yglesias

Just The Facts on Drugs

Mark Kleiman offers a list of things the president-elect needs to know about drugs and drug policy. These aren’t recommendations, they’re just facts in a world where policies are often driven by hysteria or sentimentality rather than any serious effort to understand what’s happening.

Politics

George Will: Bush to defend Miers and other ‘insufficiently appreciated’ decisions in his memoirs.

Last week, in an interview with the National Review, President Bush defended his failed nomination of Harriet Miers, saying she “absolutely” would have made an “excellent” Supreme Court justice. On Laura Ingraham’s radio show today, conservative pundit George Will — who called the Miers pick worse than the administration’s response to Katrina — said he had spoken to a historian who has consulted Bush on his memoirs and learned Bush will continue to defend such “insufficiently appreciated” decisions:

WILL: He’s planning — I know that he’s talked to a historian with whom I’ve talked. He’s planning to write his memoirs based around certain decisions, the genius of which was insufficiently appreciated by the American public –

INGRAHAM: Oh god.

WILL: –near the top of which was the nomination of Harriet Miers. … That occurred just about the time of Katrina and in my judgment was worse than the Administration’s response to Katrina.

Listen here:

Publishers have indicated they’re not very interested in Bush’s memoirs, recommending that he “take [his] time” before starting to write.

Politics

Rove-protege Tim Griffin considering running for Arkansas Senate seat in 2010.

griffin.jpgIn a message on his Twitter account today, former Arkansas U.S. attorney and Karl Rove-protege Tim Griffin hinted that he is considering a “senate run” in 2010 against Sen. Blanche Lincoln. In an interview with the AP, Griffin confirmed that he was indeed mulling a run, saying that he was “certainly thinking about it“:

“I am certainly thinking about it,” Griffin said. “I’m going to spend some time going around the state and talking to folks and getting an idea of the interest level. … I’m going to try and hit all 75 counties as soon as possible and I know that’s a tall order trying to hit all of those in the next few months.

Griffin is controversial beyond his involvement in the U.S. attorney scandal. As RNC research director in 2004, Griffin reportedly led a “caging” scheme to suppress the votes of likely Democratic voters, including African-American service members in Florida.

Yglesias

The Trouble With Genocide Prevention

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There’s nothing wrong with preventing genocide, of course. But the public conversation on preventing genocide in the United States has, over the years, come to be dominated by a kind of myopic focus on the idea of using unilateral American military force to stop genocides. The basic way the conversation goes is basically that whenever humanitarian emergencies break out, we do nothing to stop them. And sometimes we invade Iraq. But then whenever anyone suggests that the U.S. commit itself to following international law and not using non-defensive military force absent a UN Security Council authorization, people show up insisting that we need to maintain the right to unilateral non-defensive war in order to stop genocide. Then whenever humanitarian emergencies break out, we do nothing to stop them. But the larger cause of unilateral militarism lives to fight another day. Or something.

Beyond the maddening nature of this cycle, meanwhile, it’s extremely hard to imagine situations in which unilateral American military force would really improve a humanitarian crisis. The Ambassador at Large has some worthwhile thoughts on this:

Rather than focusing on “sending in the troops” to stop the bad guys from doing bad things, we can grasp thoroughly the ethnonationalistic motivations of all actors in a conflict, and work towards implementing diplomatic solutions that head off the worst impulses of these actors. That’s what worked — temporarily, at least — to defuse the crisis in Kenya before it spiraled out of hand. That, my friends, is Responsibility To Protect in action, and not a shot was fired from the international community. Sending NATO or the UN to a futile mission of pacifying Darfur, or sending Western troops to distribute aid at gunpoint in Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis (let’s remember, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was a strong advocate of this hair-brained scheme) will cause more problems than it solves.

By contrast, we could have taken action in Rwanda. A UN peacekeeping force, with robust mandate, was already there, and the signs of chaos were everywhere well in advance. Proper preventive action could have stopped the bloodletting, which killed 800,000 before spilling into Congo and bringing about the deaths of at least 5 million more in the subsequent 14 years.

Conflict resolution, conflict prevention, and peace enforcement when/if an agreement is in place is where the action is at. Trying to contain the damage around the edges of a conflict doesn’t really solve anything, and trying to directly insert foreign military forces into ongoing wars is unlikely to genuinely resolve anything. See also John Norris and John Prendergast on the situation in Sudan:

Certainly, protecting civilians is an important goal that will require significant energy and resources for the foreseeable future. But it is not sufficient. Protection efforts must be buttressed by a broader approach to end Sudan’s multiple conflicts. Pursuing the goal of civilian protection during the conflict should not obscure or divert energy from the larger and ultimate objective: bringing peace to Sudan by securing a credible deal for Darfur and implementing the terms of the CPA. As the two most influential countries with Sudan and two countries with the most to lose if the CPA collapses, the United States and China have compelling reasons to work jointly for lasting peace.

The flipside of these considerations is that when skeptics of far-flung war-fighting hear that someone or other wants to do more to prevent mass killings of civilians abroad, they shouldn’t just assume that what the person has in mind is starting a lot of new wars. That is what Robert Kagan and Max Boot have in mind. And it’s what some Democrats have in mind, too. But other people — usually the people with a real interest in humanitarian issues and the crisis-afflicted regions, rather then generic Very Serious People — are talking about actually finding ways to prevent people from being killed, not finding new pretexts for killing people.

Security

The UN In Congo: Peacekeepers or Bystanders?

Our guest blogger is Maggie Fick, Special Assistant on the policy team at the ENOUGH Project.

un-peacekeepers.jpgLast week, the New York Times, Human Rights Watch, and the Enough Project provided detailed accounts of the summary executions of an estimated 150 civilians by rebel leader Laurent Nkunda’s CNDP militia in the key town of Kiwanja in eastern Congo. While the rebels terrorized the population of Kiwanja in what HRW called “one of the worst killing sprees” in North Kivu province in the past two years, a contingent of over 100 U.N. peacekeepers was stationed less than a mile away. The New York Times called the Kiwanja massacre a “textbook example” of the continuing failure of MONUC (Mission of the United Nations Organization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo), the world’s largest international peacekeeping force, to protect Congolese people.

Some have already characterized MONUC’s tragic failure in Kiwanja as a “lack of capacity” problem among UN peacekeeping missions. I agree with UN Dispatch blogger Mark Leon Goldberg, who argues that Kiwanja should not be used as a chance to rant against UN peacekeeping. However, an Enough Project report released yesterday makes the important argument that MONUC’s consistent failure to protect civilians and deter ongoing violence is due “less to inadequate force levels and more to a glaring lack of political will” in the international community.

When the Security Council renews MONUC’s mandate (pdf) this month, it must work with troop-contributing countries to make explicit that peacekeepers can and should use deadly force to defend civilians against armed groups (including the predatory Congolese army). Furthermore, the Security Council should make clear that failure to execute this mandate will not be tolerated.

On the subject of political will, it should be noted that MONUC will yet again be left out to dry unless the international community throws its full weight behind sustained diplomatic efforts to deal with the root causes of the chronic crisis in Congo: the FDLR, the illicit trade in minerals, longstanding land and citizenship issues, and the war economy that has allowed warring parties — including regional governments — to reap profits from the warfare in Congo for over a decade.

Culture

When the CW Is Right

I did a post for the Internet Food Association revealing several facts about reindeer including the fact that (a) reindeer is a real animal, (b) reindeer is delicious, and (c) reindeer is called “Caribou” in North America. Obviously, this called for a post title that made reference to “Caribou” by the Pixies. That, in turn, led me to actually fire up some Pixies and give a listen to a band whose greatness is so obvious that I often forget to listen to their songs frequently enough. But do you know which band is really good? The Pixies!

Also I miss “120 Minutes.”

Climate Progress

The five reasons for an energy-efficient stimulus

[Our guest blogger is Bob Massie, a former Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor of Massachusetts, who chaired an Energy Empowerment Rally in Boston last month. First posted in WonkRoom.]

efficient-home1.jpgAs President-elect Barack Obama prepares to tackle the vast problems ahead for America, he has consistently made two bold proposals.

First, he intends to make an immense investment in infrastructure — roads, bridges, railways — to jump-start jobs. Second, he plans to boost clean green technologies to make up for the squandered opportunities of the Lost Decade.

These are both powerful, worthy ideas. But they would be far more powerful if they were directly connected. The incoming administration has a historic opportunity to accomplish five major goals at once through a massive investment in stopping the waste of energy and dollars pouring out of American homes.

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