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Climate Progress

US Geological Survey stunner: Sea-level rise in 2100 will likely “substantially exceed” IPCC projections, SW faces “permanent drying” by 2050

A major new report warns that on our current emissions path, we face the severe risk of abrupt climate change impacts. The basic conclusions themselves are nothing new — see “Startling new sea level rise research: “Most likely” 0.8 to 2.0 meters by 2100” and “Australia faces the “permanent dry” — as do we.

But what is stunning is that these warnings come from the United States Geological Survey — the Bush Administration (!). This new science-based report, Abrupt Climate Change, is thus a sobering book-end to the fantasy-based talking points released by the Administration today on how the President has “Taken Constructive Steps To Confront Climate Change.”

This is a first-rate report from the USGS’s Climate Change Science Program. I highly recommend reading, Chapter 2, “Rapid Changes in Glaciers and Ice Sheets and their Impacts on Sea Level,” and Chapter 3, “Hydrological Variability and Change.” The chapters are much more readable than the IPCC reports, and the two together will make anyone an expert on what are perhaps the two most dangerous climate impacts that threaten this country.

The sea level rise conclusion, “based on an assessment of the published scientific literature” is:
Read more

Politics

Palin Defends Church’s Promotion Of Group That Aims For Gays To ‘Overcome’ ‘Unwanted Same-Sex Attractions’

In September, an insert in the bulletin of the Wasilla Bible Church — where Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has worshipped for about six years — promoted an upcoming Love Won Out conference that sought to “convert gays into heterosexuals through the power of prayer.” In an interview with Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren last night about suspected arson at the church, Palin defended the promotion of the event, claiming that “people looked at that and wanted to spin that into something that it was not“:

VAN SUSTEREN: Do you know about that at all, what that controversy was?

PALIN: Yes, I think there was an insert in the church’s bulletin one Sunday that had advertised a seminar that was being (INAUDIBLE) at another church in Anchorage, and it had to do with those who wanted some assistance or some kind of counseling in dealing with any struggles that they would have regarding homosexuality.

Asked if gay men and women were “welcome” at her church, Palin responded by using nearly the same language she used to describe Love Won Out’s efforts to “help” gay people. The church is “quite open in terms of welcoming people into the church and assisting anyone who desires assistance or counseling or help,” said Palin. Watch it:

Love Won Out denies that it aims to “cure” homosexuality, despite the fact that it claims “same-sex attractions can be overcome.” Additionally, the group’s website approvingly cites a paper on “Ex-Gays” that seeks to demonstrate “that it is possible for homosexuals to change their physical attractions.” The website also refers readers to a number of “ex-gay” organizations and websites.

As the New York Times notes, “most mainstream mental health professionals dismiss attempts to eradicate homosexual desires or to change someone’s sexual orientation as quackery that is potentially harmful.” Mental health experts say that the damage sexual reorientation therapy can “inflict on self-esteem, triggering depression and even suicide, is well documented.”

Palin has previously said that she believes homosexuality is a “choice.” But in reality, all major mainstream medical and mental health professional organizations have concluded otherwise.

Politics

George W. Bush’s Nightmare Before Christmas.

Noting that President George Bush is “doing a last minute end-run, jamming as many rules through the executive branch as he can during his waning days in power,” Brave New Films has released “George W. Bush’s Nightmare Before Christmas.” A “satirical spin on the famous poem, ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas,” the film highlights Bush’s last-minute regulatory push:

While children are dreaming of toys, dolls and ponies,
I’m out here scheming how to help out my cronies.
Yes to all my pals in the big corporations.
Here’s my gift to you: some new regulations.

Watch it:

For more on Bush’s array of 11th hour regulatory changes, see ThinkProgress’ report: Bush’s Backward Sprint To The Finish.

Politics

Rice: No ‘American Money’ In Iraq Was Lost To Corruption

ric234.jpgIn an AP interview yesterday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke highly of U.S. reconstruction efforts in Iraq, stating, “We’ve done a lot of work to get these [reconstruction] structures right, and I think they finally are” — a day after a scathing government report detailed massive waste and poor planning in U.S. reconstruction efforts. When asked about the abuse, Rice claimed that U.S. dollars have emerged unscathed:

Q: But the cost in terms of lives and in terms of the money and the abuse of money – (inaudible) was money wasted, there was money that was siphoned off, corruption and that kind of thing, you’re —

RICE: Not of American money. Not American money. I don’t think that you will find that anybody is arguing that there was corruption in the American programs.

Throughout the U.S. occupation of Iraq, billions in tax dollars have been lost due to corruption and incompetence. Some of the most egregious losses have been via “American programs”:

– The Coalition Provisional Authority delivered 363 tons of cash on an airplane, totaling $12 billion, to Iraq “without assurance the monies were properly used or accounted for.”

– The State Dept spent $36.4 million dollars on weapons and equipment that could not be accounted for because “invoices were vague and there was no backup documentation“.

– Top contractor KBR came under fire last year from government investigators for overpricing its contract by $2 billion, which, for example, included overstating labor costs by 51 percent.

– State Dept. employees testified in May 2008 that the U.S. “allowed corruption to fester at the highest levels of the Iraqi government,” resulting in the loss of billions in U.S. tax dollars.

The use of private contractors, a major source of the corruption, has skyrocketed under Bush. The government has spent $85 billion on contracts in Iraq and other countries in the first four years of the war. “Taxpayers have been bled dry with massive misuse of public dollars,” observed Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND), who has spearheaded investigations into waste, fraud, and abuse in Iraq.

Thus far, some $50 billion in taxpayer dollars have been spent on the reconstruction of Iraq, which anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International listed as the third-most corrupt nation in the world.

Yglesias

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About VMT Trends

Robert Puentes and Adie Tomer have a report out from Brookings that’s just chock full of data about “vehicle-miles traveled” trends in the United States with basically no policy prescriptions. Here’s one chart:

vmtpcchart.png

I think this shows that the short-term response of driving behavior to gas price increases is very small, because things are just located where they are. But the long term impact of sustained increases looks quite a bit greater, because over time businesses and individuals have the ability to change things up based on new expectations about fuel prices. It’s worth noting that this decline has taken place even in the absence of policies like congestion pricing, carbon pricing, and pay-as-you-drive car insurance all of which would create incentives for people to think harder about their VMTs. Even more remarkably, we haven’t seen much in terms of serious efforts to either legalize denser construction or to build serious new transit networks — the kind of things that would open up meaningful alternative ways of getting around.

Media

Silly Benen

Steven Benen asks: “If six media figures joining Democratic campaigns is proof that reporters are liberal, are seven loyal Bushies joining news outlets proof that major media outlets are conservative?”

Of course not! The loyal Bushies joining major media outlets is proof that the media is liberal — so liberal, in fact, that even the hard-core liberals who control the media feel so guilty about it that they need to hire hack propagandists from the Bush administration to try to counteract their own liberal liberalishness. Similarly, CNN hiring Steve Hayes also proves that the media is liberal.

Security

Gaffney: 4,000 Americans Had To Die In Iraq

In a new interview with ABC News, Vice President Cheney claimed that the the case for war had nothing to do with whether Saddam Hussein had WMD; America would have invaded anyway. Today on MSNBC’s Hardball, right-wing commentator Frank Gaffney defended Cheney’s remarks, saying that the “real reason” the Bush administration wanted to invade Iraq was because Saddam was a “mortal threat” to the United States.

Host Chris Matthews was appalled that Gaffney seemed to feel no guilt or remorse than 4,000 Americans died because of the right wing’s mistakes. Gaffney replied that while it was “regrettable” anyone had to die, they “did have to die”:

MATTHEWS: You guys sold the war as a nuclear threat to the United States. A nuclear weapon was going to be delivered by a nuclear delivery device. It was going to take the weapon and drop it here. You sold every trick you could to get us into this war. Now you’re back pedaling. And I do find it astounding. The Vice President of the United States is —

GAFFNEY: How do you feel, Chris?

MATTHEWS: This is how I feel. Four thousand people are dead because of how you feel. And Frank, you’re wrong about this because you don’t even seem to care your facts were wrong.

GAFFNEY: Chris, there were —

MATTHEWS: You admit your facts were wrong and it doesn’t bother you.

GAFFNEY: May I state my position rather than you stating it? May I do that? My position is that it’s regrettable that any Americans died. It is regrettable that they had to die, but I believe they did have to die.

Watch it:

Four thousand Americans didn’t die in Iraq because they had to. They died because of the Bush administration’s hubris. Matt Yglesias explains:

The harsh reality is that this was not a noble undertaking done for good reasons. It was a criminal enterprise launched by madmen cheered on by a chorus of fools and cowards. And it’s seen as such by virtually everyone all around the world — including but by no means limited to the Arab world.

But it’s impolitic to point this out in the United States, and it’s clear that even a president-elect who had the wisdom not to be suckered in by the War Fever of 2002 has no intention of really acting to marginalize the bad actors. Which, I think, makes sense for his political objectives. But if Americans want to play a constructive role in world affairs, it’s vitally important for us to get in touch with the reality of what the past eight years of US foreign policy have been and how they’re seen and understood by people who aren’t stirred by the shibboleths of American patriotism.

Media

Headline of the Day

Jason Linkins nails the press’ inane metacommentary on Blagojevic: “Reporters: Our Obsessive Blago Coverage A Problem For Obama.”

I would only note that “coverage” is a generous description of what cable news is doing with this story. In principle, exposing public corruption is the sort of thing news organizations exist to do. But CNN, Fox, and MSNBC aren’t doing any reporting on this story — they’re just engaged in idle speculation and chit-chat about how their speculation is going to be damaging to Obama.

Economy

The Fed’s Final Throw Of The Dice

Our guest bloggers are Will Straw, Associate Director for Economic Growth, and Heather Boushey, senior economist, at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

fed.JPGWith the announcement today that the overnight federal funds rate will be cut close to zero, the Federal Reserve has effectively joined the Looney Tunes chorus: “That’s all folks.” There is now no effective room to maneuver through monetary policy — short of printing money.

The Fed’s release states that, “Since the Committee’s last meeting [on October 29], labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined.” Job losses are accelerating, which will only make the consumption picture worse in the months to come.

Employment has fallen for 10 months in a row and we’ve lost 1.3 million jobs in the past three months alone. The most recent GDP figures show that consumer spending dropped by an annualized rate of 3.1 percent — the largest decrease since the second quarter of 1980. And we’ve known about the atrocious business investment figures since the release of second quarter data in September.

Policy makers have two sets of tools to stimulate the economy: monetary and fiscal policy. Although the markets responded positively, today’s news is proof once again that the Bush administration has put all its eggs in one basket. The need for an economic recovery package aimed at creating jobs has been evident for months, but both President Bush and Senate Republicans have repeatedly blocked attempts to pass a package.

While the House passed a $60 billion package in September, Bush threatened a veto and the Senate never voted on the issue. Now, $60 billion seems paltry compared to the problems at hand, and economists are suggesting something closer to $600 billion will be necessary to get the economy back on track. Read more

Climate Progress

Chrysler to electrify entire product line!

CNNMoney has the surprising story of “Chrysler’s plan to beat the Chevy Volt“:

Chrysler is pinning a huge part of its future on a plan to produce a full line of electric vehicles, at a reasonable cost to both the carmaker and the consumer….

Chrysler’s strategy hinges on keeping it cheap. The carmaker will dispense with flashy designs in exchange for low cost and flexibility. And it plans to pile on more electric-powered models quickly once the program launches in 2010.

“We aren’t a one-electric-vehicle company,” Lou Rhodes, Chrysler’s vice president for advanced vehicle engineering, told CNNMoney in an exclusive interview. Rhodes is also president of Chrysler’s ENVI, a separate business division tasked with bringing new electric vehicles to market.

Instead of making one, or just a few, electric-only models, Chrysler will sell the same models in both gasoline-powered and electric-powered versions. This low-cost, high-variety electric-vehicle strategy will play a big part in any comeback plan Chrysler may present in hopes of getting government rescue funding.

Wow. If this is really true, if Chrysler will spell this out in the spring for the government as part of a full bailout plan, then the company certainly should be given a chance to put this strategy into place.

Unless this downturn turns into a global recession, gasoline prices should be returning to record levels by the end of 2010 — and breaking records a few years after that.

Here are more details of Chrysler’s electrifying strategy:

Read more

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