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Report: Obama prepared to talk to Hamas.

Barack Obama is reportedly planning to ditch President Bush’s strategy of isolating Hamas, and will instead move to open contacts with the group. “The Guardian has spoken to three people with knowledge of the discussions in the Obama camp. There is no talk of Obama approving direct diplomatic negotiations with Hamas early on, but he is being urged by advisers to initiate low-level or clandestine approaches, and there is growing recognition in Washington that the policy of ostracising Hamas is counter-productive.”

Update

Brian Katulis previously wrote that “pragmatically dealing with Hamas is necessary for getting to some de-escalation of the current violence.”

Yglesias

Compromise

Fascinating development as the United States Senate reaches a compromise with the second house of the legislature known as Citigroup:

Democratic lawmakers have reached a deal with Citigroup Inc. on a plan to let bankruptcy judges alter home loans in an effort to prevent foreclosures and urged other lenders to follow suit.

The lawmakers aim to attach the plan to President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus legislation, and said Thursday the change in bankruptcy law could ease the foreclosure crisis that has dragged the economy into the worst recession in decades.

The compromise between Citigroup and Sens. Richard Durbin of Illinois, Charles Schumer and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, would be limited to loans made before the bill is signed. Obama has said he backs the concept.

In a related news, they’re doing a recall on civics textbooks that have led generations of schoolchildren to believe that congress just gets to decide what the laws are without “negotiating” with major corporations. And, yes, the congress did give billions of taxpayer dollars to Citigroup just a few weeks ago.

Yglesias

The Costs of Inaction

The United States had a decent bite at the apple of health care reform about fifteen years ago when Bill Clinton was president and Democrats controlled the House of Representatives and the Senate. Initially, the need for some kind of major reform was widely accepted. But naturally there were disagreements about exactly what to do. And there were also powerful interests opposed to reform. And there were political opportunists determined to simply deny the administration any kind of victory. Naturally, they started denying the problems were real, etc., etc.

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The costs of inaction over the past fifteen years have been high. Ben Furnas has made charts and graphs that should finally make it clear that the status quo is unacceptable. Over on the left you can see the trajectory of per person health care costs. Back in 1994, we were already spending over twice as much per person as the OECD average. There are a lot of ins and outs to that, obviously, but it’s telling that the gap between the United States and the next biggest spender — Norway — was pretty enormous.

Over time since then, costs have gone up across the board. The gaps have only gotten larger. Ben cites a McKinsey study that “found that the United States spent $650 billion more on health care than peer OECD countries even after adjusting for wealth.” That’s about $2,000 per person in excess spending. This produces a problem for public finances, for firms that provide their employees with health insurance, and for individuals paying for health care.

Oftentimes, you’ll see one or another of these problems looked at—you’ll see an “entitlement crisis” or you’ll see car companies with crazy labor costs or you’ll see individuals with stagnating wages—but that encourages people to think of solutions that really just involve pushing the problem around. You can shift costs off the government and on to individuals and businesses. Or off businesses and on to individuals and the government. But actually tackling the problem requires a comprehensive approach.

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Nor do we appear to be getting anything of value in exchange for our extra money:

It would be one thing if America’s massive health care expenditures since 1994 were yielding first-rate results in health outcomes and the quality of care. Unfortunately, this isn’t the case. In practically every international comparative measure of health quality, the United States lags behind other developed nations who spend just a fraction of what America does on health care.

A recent Commonwealth Fund study found that across 37 indicators covering quality, access, efficiency, and equity, the United States achieves “an overall score of 65 out of a possible 100 when comparing national averages with benchmarks of best performance achieved internationally and within the United States.” In other words, the United States as a whole is performing well below the standards of health, efficiency, and care that are realistic and have been achieved in the most successful U.S. states and other developed nations. And the trends are pointing in the wrong direction: “On those indicators for which trend data exist, performance compared with benchmarks more often worsened than improved… between the 2006 and 2008 Scorecards.”

Obviously, these kind of facts don’t determine what the right course forward should be. But the evidence is pretty overwhelming that what we’re doing isn’t working and it’s working less and less as time goes on. Read here for much more.

Politics

Bush: I liberated America’s school children.

President Bush is fond of saying that he “liberated 50 million people” by taking military action in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the populations of those two foreign countries aren’t the only people that Bush claims to have liberated. In his last policy speech as President, Bush said today that No Child Left Behind has led to the “liberation” of America’s school children:

By the way, school choice was only open to rich people up until No Child Left Behind. It’s hard for a lot of parents to be able to afford to go to any other kind of school but their neighborhood school. Now, under this system, if your public school is failing, you’ll have the option of transferring to another public school or charter school. And it’s — I view that as liberation. I view that as empowerment.

During his speech today, Bush also finally fixed one of his most notorious Bushisms — “Rarely is the question asked, is our children learning?” — stating, “Rarely was the question asked: Can you read? Or can you write? Or can you add and can you subtract?” Watch it:

Politics

U.S. Air Force releases flow chart of ‘counter-blog’ reponse plan.

As part of its halting efforts to reach out to bloggers in constructive ways, the U.S. Air Force has assembled a “counter-blog” action plan aimed at responding to bloggers who have “negative opinions about the U.S. government and the Air Force.” The plan includes a detailed flow-chart that, as Danger Room explains, “lays out a range of possible responses to a blog post“:

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Danger Room notes that the Air Force is trying to catch up with the rest of the Defense Department in terms of blogger relations. Despite blocking a significant number of blogs on its networks, the Air Force now has a Twitter feed and a blog of its own, thanks to a new public affairs “social media guru.”

Update

Matt Yglesias writes, “Of course what this doesn’t do is allay one’s doubts that a branch of the military whose institutional identity and mission were a pure creation of the Cold War era may not be well-suited to the present-day geopolitical context.”

Economy

Democratic Senators Skeptical Of Obama’s Stimulus Tax Cuts

taxcut1.jpgThe Wonk Room has been following the developing saga regarding tax cuts that President-elect Barack Obama is looking to include in an economic recovery plan. Today, the Senate Finance committee held a closed door meeting to discuss the plan, and some Democratic Senators emerged skeptical of the cuts, saying they “wouldn’t do much to stimulate the economy or create jobs.”

Lawmakers were reportedly “especially critical of a proposed $3,000 tax credit for companies that hire or retrain workers”:

- Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND): If I’m a business person, it’s unlikely if you give me a several-thousand-dollar credit that I’m going to hire people if I can’t sell the products they’re producing…That to me is just misdirected.

- Sen. John Kerry (D-MA): I’m not that excited about it…The creation of a tax credit for hiring isn’t going to make up for the lack of goods being sold.

Also criticized was a plan to distribute tax cuts incrementally through workers’ paychecks:

- Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR): In tough times, people don’t respond that well to marginal changes, such as a small amount of money added per paycheck.

Kerry said he’d “rather spend the money on the infrastructure, on direct investment, on energy conversion, on other kinds of things that much more directly, much more rapidly and much more certainly create a real job.”

Indeed, significantly more stimulus “bang for the buck” comes from direct investment in infrastructure than from any type of tax cut. One dollar invested in infrastructure has a return of $1.59 in GDP growth; the most effective tax cut, a payroll tax holiday, only returns $1.29, while most tax cuts don’t even return 50 cents.

However, in order for the stimulus to be large enough to make a difference, it is going to have to include some tax cuts, as there is only so much infrastructure spending that can be implemented quickly. But as Matthew Yglesias wrote, to be an effective stimulus the cuts need to “put money in the hands of individuals with a high propensity to spend.” This means lower- and middle-income families, not corporations or millionaires. To his credit, Obama has proposed some cuts of this kind.

The tax rebate passed last year by Congress was ineffective because it was poorly targeted. Economists have calculated that taxpayers spent just 12 percent of the rebate and put the rest of it into savings accounts or toward old debts. The current economic crisis is too dire for another misfired effort.

Update

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA):

There’s only one thing we’ve got to do in this stimulus, and that’s create jobs. I’m a little concerned by the way Mr. Summers and others are going on this … it still looks a little more to me like trickle-down.

Politics

Former FEMA chief Michael Brown forced to evacuate from Colorado wildfires.

In recent days, vicious wildfires have forced thousands of Boulder, Colorado area residents to evacuate. One of those residents: disgraced former FEMA chief Michael “Heckuva Job” Brown. This morning in an interview with a Colorado radio station, Brownie remarked, “Here I am on the other side of the fence now.” He added that “was strange being told to evacuate, because, you know, I firmly believe in evacuations. When they told me that, you know, I just loaded the dogs up, grabbed my briefcase and headed down the mountain.” Michael Roberts of Denver Westword writes, “Don’t gloat about that, Katrina survivors. Well, maybe a little gloating is okay.”

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Yglesias

The Chemistry Experiment

a_iverson_1.jpg

J.A. Adande says it’s hard for Allen Iverson to find great chemistry:

The Detroit Pistons became the NBA’s greatest chemistry experiment when they traded Chauncey Billups to Denver for Allen Iverson in November. General manager Joe Dumars wanted to get with the trend of clearing salary cap space for the free-agent bonanza of 2010, only he couldn’t sell a Knicks-like stripping of the roster to a fan base that has seen the Pistons reach the Eastern Conference finals for six consecutive years. It’s not too often you can dump salary and get an eight-time All-Star and former MVP in return. Of course, there isn’t a single player as difficult to incorporate into a new system as Iverson.

His most successful season in Philadelphia came after the Sixers got rid of Jerry Stackhouse, Derrick Coleman, Larry Hughes and Jim Jackson. They let Iverson have the offensive stage to himself, while everyone else played defense and grabbed rebounds. The experiment with Carmelo Anthony in Denver didn’t work out. He dominated the ball too much, played at a speed no one else could keep up with, and didn’t do enough to get everyone else involved.

An alternative explanation to these chemistry-based accounts would note that Iverson simply isn’t that effective as a basketball player. Given his small size, it requires extraordinarily unusual skills for Iverson to be as effective as he is, but the fact remains that “effective as he is” just isn’t as effective as his superstar status would warrant. The successful 2001 Philadelphia 76ers team that went to the NBA finals was, at 56-26, a pretty weak Finals contender. What’s more, the Iverson-led offense wasn’t very good—13th most efficient out of 29 teams in the league. Their strength was defense, where they ranked as fifth-best, and I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone argue that Iverson (as opposed to, say, Dikembe Mutombo) was the lynchpin of that defense.

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