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Newsweek Writer’s Story Claiming That Torture Might Work Contradicts His 2006 Article Saying That It Doesn’t

evanthomas.jpgIn Newsweek’s cover story this week, Evan Thomas and Stuart Taylor, Jr., argue that President-elect Barack Obama should embrace Vice President Dick Cheney’s movement for the expansion of executive power. They conclude that Cheney’s work, especially with respect to torture, may be a necessary evil:

The issue of torture is more complicated than it seems. America brought untold shame on itself with the abuses at Abu Ghraib. It’s likely that the take-the-gloves-off attitude of Cheney and his allies filtered down through the ranks, until untrained prison guards with sadistic tendencies were making sport with electric shock. But no direct link has been reported. [...] It is a liberal shibboleth that torture doesn’t work—that suspects will say anything, including lies, to stop the pain. But the reality is perhaps less clear.

But, as Big Tent Democrat points out at Talk Left, Thomas came to a much different conclusion in 2006, reporting in Newsweek that “most intelligence experts” say torture is ineffective:

In recent interviews with NEWSWEEK reporters, U.S. intelligence officers say they have little—if any—evidence that useful intelligence has been obtained using techniques generally understood to be torture.

Experts widely believe that torture fails to provide reliable intelligence. In an article for Vanity Fair last month, the counterterrorism officials with whom David Rose spoke were “unanimous” in their belief that torture does not work:

Their conclusion is unanimous: not only have coercive methods failed to generate significant and actionable intelligence, they have also caused the squandering of resources on a massive scale through false leads, chimerical plots, and unnecessary safety alerts

Newsweek’s recent claim that torture is effective fails to consider the consequences of its usage. Not only has torture caused the United States to lose standing in the world, but the perception that the U.S. tortures “directly and swiftly” helps terrorists recruit.

Michael Wilson

Security

Re-Arming Iraq

Our guest blogger is Peter Juul, a Research Associate at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

f16.jpgIn 2008, the Iraqi government went on a military spending spree, signaling its intent to buy large quantities of advanced weapons from the United States — including F-16 fighters and M1 tanks. In 2009, it’s preparing to go further, with Defense News reporting the potential purchase and refurbishment in the United States of 2,000 T-72 tanks. These potential arms deals are worth over $16.6 billion, and if fully realized will mark the re-emergence of Iraq as a major regional military power. While debates over the nature and pace of U.S. withdrawal from Iraq (as mandated by last years Status of Forces Agreement) have taken up the space allocated to Iraq in our national political discourse, relatively little attention has been paid to the plans for the rearmament of Iraq’s conventional military.

Assuming all the pending arms deals go through, by 2011 Iraq will be stronger in conventional military terms than at any point since before the First Gulf War in 1991. Its land forces will have much improved armor capability, though this capability is offset by a lack of artillery. Iraq’s air force will possess a similar number of modern combat aircraft as it did in 1991, but will have no second- and third-line combat aircraft beyond light attack aircraft. Its naval situation will remain relatively unchanged. In sum, by 2011, Iraq will have regained its place as a major conventional military power thanks to U.S. arms sales and military assistance.

These sales (and associated training by U.S. military personnel) will substantially alter the security architecture of the Middle East. Iraq’s neighbors, which have grown accustomed to a weak Iraq over the past two decades, may (depending on internal Iraqi politics) have to deal with an increasingly assertive and confident Iraq in regional politics. While it’s unlikely Iraq will engage in any overseas adventures in the future, it is likely that Iraq will no longer allow itself to be ignored or pushed around by other regional powers. If Iraq manages to achieve a modicum of internal political stability in the near future – democractically or not – it will have the military muscle to back up claims to a greater role in the region.

Here are some of the deals signaled or cut by the Iraqi government over the past year:

Air forces:
- 36 F-16C Fighting Falcons – ~$3.6 billion
- 24 Armed Bell 407 helicopters (with associated equipment and armament) – $366 million
- 20 T-6 Texan trainers (with associated equipment) – $210 million
- 36 AT-6B Texan light attack aircraft (with associated equipment) – $520 million
- 6 King Air 350 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft – $10.5 million
- 24 EC 635 light helicopters – unknown cost

Land forces:
- 2,000 Upgraded T-72 tanks – $6 billion
- 140 M1A1M Abrams tanks – $1.4 billion
- 156 Humvee variants – part of $2.16 billion package including M1 tanks
36 M113 armored personnel carrier variants – part of $2.16 billion including M1s
- 400 Strykers – part of $1.11 billion light armored vehicle deal
- 400 M1117 Armored Security Vehicles – part of $1.11 billion light armored vehicle deal
105,000 M16A4 and M4 rifles – $148 million
- 2,550 M203 grenade launchers – part of $148 million M16/M4 rifle package

Naval forces:
- 20 – part of $1.01 billion ship deal
- 3 Offshore Support Vessels – part of $1.01 billion ship deal

Total estimated cost: $16.634 billion (~$10.5 billion in direct military purchases from U.S. manufacturers, with $6 billion in refurbishment contracts.) Read more

Politics

Olmert stands by his story on Rice’s Gaza vote.

The Bush administration has been on a full-court press to push back on Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s widely-circulated statements that he got the U.S. to abstain from voting on the U.N.’s Gaza ceasefire resolution. But Olmert aides say today that he “stands by his claim” and that he “told the story as it happened.” U.N. Dispatch notes these comments from U.N. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad:

He said that Rice spent an “unprecedented” three days working on the resolution, and that the United States drafted a big portion of the resolution, which he described as “very reasonable.”

Mark Leon Goldberg asks, “What’s curious to me, at least, is why the United States would not vote in favor of a resolution that its ambassador considered ‘very reasonable’ and its Secretary of State worked so hard on drafting?”

Economy

Republican Study Committee Proposes Ineffective Tax Cuts, Destructive Spending Reduction For Stimulus

rsc1.jpgSetting foot on the trail blazed by the Chamber of Commerce, the Heritage Foundation and the Club for Growth, the Republican Study Committee (RSC) released its economic stimulus plan today. Dubbed The Economic Recovery and Middle-Class Tax Relief Act of 2009, the plan includes:

- Making the 15 percent capital gains tax rate permanent.

- Cutting the top corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent.

- A 5 percent across the board income tax cut for individuals.

- Indexing the capital gains tax for inflation.

The RSC also proposes “a 1 percent reduction in discretionary spending in the fiscal 2009 budget,” proudly touting the fact that “this legislation does not contain one penny of new spending, and rejects the idea that massive new government spending will lead to an economic recovery.”

As stimulus outlines go, this is spectacularly bad. It couples the ineffective tax cuts of previous proposals with a completely destructive spending reduction that would only exacerbate the economic crisis.

As Paul Krugman noted, “with both consumer spending and business investment plunging, a huge gap is opening up between what the U.S. economy can produce and what it’s able to sell.” The whole point of a stimulus package is to fill this gap by boosting demand and consumer spending, which will get dollars to flow through the economy again. This is accomplished through targeted tax cuts to low- and middle-income families, infrastructure investment, and by providing aid to state governments.

As Matthew Yglesias wrote, “Not only is this barrel full of tax cuts proposed by the [RSC] pretty bad stimulus, but to even call a package of permanent tax cuts an ‘alternative stimulus’ is a serious abuse of the term”:

The idea of a stimulus measure is that you increase the budget deficit over the short-term to try to get the economy back to something like a full employment of available resources. But a permanent increase in the deficit extends, by definition, into non-recessionary periods in which such deficits operate as a drag on growth.

Indeed, permanently cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporations — who are less apt to immediately spend any tax break they receive — while forcing the federal government, in Neo-Hoover fashion, to cut its budget is a counterintuitive response that is not really a stimulus at all. What the economy needs is a boost, not a permanent break for businesses and the rich.

Yglesias

Teaching Reading Right

bushreadingthepetgoat_1.jpg

John McWhorter makes a somewhat overblown but essentially correct point about the screwed-up way we teach reading in this country. Basically, there are two main ways of doing this. One, “direct instruction,” involves an emphasis on phonics and teaching kids to sound words out. The other way emphasized teaching kids to recognize whole words. Research indicates that direct instruction is more effective, especially for poor children who often grow up in relatively language-poor environments, but the other method is more popular. It’s both strange and unfortunate that the education system is so unresponsive to this research and also strange and unfortunate that “education reform” efforts have so much focus on administrative structure of school systems and so little on these kinds of curriculum issues.

A word of caution I would offer is that the rhetoric in the column seems, in my view, to oversell this fix. I think it’s important not to set people up to believe that some proposed change is a silver bullet when that just sets the stage for a potential future backlash. Based on what we know, it would be much better in general—and especially for poor kids—to do more direct instruction. But there’s no need for subheads proclaiming “A solution for the reading gap between black and white children was discovered four decades ago.” Even the most egalitarian countries have statistically meaningful achievement gaps, and the United States is far from being the most egalitarian country. There’s no “solution” to the general existence of achievement gaps. There are, rather, policies that can be effective in narrowing them and this is one.

Politics

Cheney On Whether Iraq War Was Worth The 4,500 Americans Killed: ‘I Think So’

cheneys.jpg In an interview airing tonight on PBS’s Newshour, host Jim Lehrer asks Vice President Cheney about the U.S. soldiers who have lost their lives in the war in Iraq. Cheney shows little remorse:

Q: But Mr. Vice President, getting from there to here, 4,500 Americans have died, at least 100,000 Iraqis have died. Has it been worth that?

CHENEY: I think so.

Q: Why?

CHENEY: Because I believed at the time what Saddam Hussein represented was, especially in the aftermath of 9/11, was a terror-sponsoring state so designated by the State Department. … He had produced and used weapons of mass destruction, chemical and biological agents. He’d had a nuclear program in the past. … And he did have a relationship with al Qaeda. [...]

And so I think given the track record of Saddam Hussein, I think we did exactly the right thing. I think the country is better off for it today.

Cheney’s comments mirror those of other conservatives, such as House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), who said that the lives lost in Iraq have been a “small price” to pay, and right-wing commentator Frank Gaffney, who declared that all these troops “did have to die” in Iraq.

The United States did not invade in Iraq because Saddam “had a nuclear program in the past,” nor did he have a relationship with al Qaeda. We went to war because Bush administration officials made everyone believes that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction at that time and an active relationship with al Qaeda. The Iraq war has decimated the readiness of the U.S. military, radicalized insurgents in the Middle East, and strengthened many of America’s enemies. As David Sanger of the New York Times notes, the war also “occupied so much of the attention and the resources of the top levels of the U.S. government that we ignored much bigger threats, short-term and long-term.” Matt Yglesias has also written:

The harsh reality is that this was not a noble undertaking done for good reasons. It was a criminal enterprise launched by madmen cheered on by a chorus of fools and cowards. And it’s seen as such by virtually everyone all around the world — including but by no means limited to the Arab world.

Evidently, all this was worth losing more than 4,500 Americans and more than 100,000 Iraqis.

Transcript: Read more

Culture

Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.

ultimatenickfury.jpg

If I may take the time to agree with my friend Spencer Ackerman, it’s absolutely imperative that Samuel L. Jackson be paid whatever it takes to persuade him to appear as Nick Fury in upcoming Avengers / Iron Man / Captain America films. Marvel literally drew the character to look like Jackson when they launched their Ultimate Marvel series. They put jokes about Jackson playing Fury into one of the Ultimates stories. And then as an easter egg at the end of Iron Man they cast Jackson as Fury. They’ve come too far to back down now.

Climate Progress

American Meteorological Society gives James Hansen its top honor

[I'd be happy to forward to Hansen any comments people have on his quarter-century-long effort to inform the public and policymakers of the grave dangers we face on our current greenhouse gas emissions path -- in the face of withering attacks by the right-wing deniers and the attempted muzzling by the Bush administration.]

hansenpic.jpg

The American Meteorological Society awarded the country’s top climate scientist its highest honor, the 2009 Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal:

For outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena.

Hansen is the longtime director of the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS). NASA also announced:

In a separate announcement on Dec. 30, Hansen was also named by EarthSky Communications and a panel of 600 scientist-advisors as the Scientist Communicator of the Year. Peers cited Hansen as an “outspoken authority on climate change” who had “best communicated with the public about vital science issues or concepts during 2008.”

Kudos to Hansen for these well-deserved awards. I, for one, wouldn’t have started this blog if it weren’t for him. Below is a Hansen primary, for those who want an introduction to the work of this seminal figure in American science:

Read more

Health

Republicans Stall SCHIP Renewal

Today, as the House debated legislation expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) to cover 11 million children, House Republicans warned that an expansion would “fund benefits for illegal immigrants,” not “cover poor children” and “push children with private insurance into state insurance.” Watch it:

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and his Republican colleagues argued that since the original 1997 bill targeted children with incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), any extension of the program should honor the original threshold and “cover poor children first.”

But as a new report by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute concludes, since 1996, “health insurance costs have risen so much that [even] for families at 300 percent of the FPL, ESI [Employer Sponsored Insurance] premiums for family coverage now make up 19 percent of income on average for a family of four“:

Put differently, ESI coverage is less affordable for families at 300 percent of the FPL today than it was for families at 200 percent of the FPL when SCHIP was passed.

Indeed, health insurance premiums have grown faster than paychecks, placing health insurance out of reach for many working class families. As an article in today’s LA Times points out, “at least 44 states are facing budget shortfalls over the next two years” and many “have been scrambling for months to cut aid to schools, universities and, increasingly, residents who rely on the state for medical care.”

But as a growing number of families are losing their public or private health insurance coverage, conservatives seem more concerned about Americans being forced-into public insurance plans and the nearly non-existent threat of illegal immigrant infiltration.

Undocumented immigrants or immigrants in the US on a temporary basis have always been ineligible for SCHIP and there is no evidence that undocumented immigrants are currently enrolled in the program. In fact, in a recent survey, “six states spent $16.6 million in state and federal taxpayer money to administer the Medicaid citdoc requirement, and identified only 8 undocumented immigrants, who likely would have been identified anyway through existing immigration documentation requirements.”

Update

The House passed SCHIP expansion by a vote of 289 to 139.

Security

Perino: Bush Isn’t Working Too Hard For Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Before He Leaves Office

Today during the White House press briefing, a reporter asked press secretary Dana Perino if President Bush is “okay with” the conflict between Hamas and Israel continuing as he leaves office and if “there any kind of sense within the White House that he’d like to wrap things up or at least achieve a resolution” before next Tuesday.

Perino said that when it comes to protecting and caring for Palestinian civilians, “there is no time limit on that.” But a second reporter noted that Bush had previously said he would “sprint to the finish” and wondered if he was “working the phones” to get a deal done. Perino brushed off any notion of Bush working on the issue, claiming that its more “appropriate” for Rice to be doing the talking:

Q: But when is the last time he had direct conversations with people brokering the Egyptian-French cease-fire –

PERINO: The President isn’t doing that; he has a Secretary of State who he has working on that and that’s who should be — that’s absolutely appropriate, is to have his Secretary of State working on that.

Watch it:

But Bush himself has previously worked the phones with international leaders and heads of state to help alleviate conflicts and crises. In fact, there are photographs of him doing it — in one he is talking with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown about the global financial crisis and in another, he’s on the phone with the Senegalese president discussing the situation in Darfur. In a July 2006, press conference, Bush described his personal touch in getting involved with North Korea:

BUSH: And so I was on the phone this morning with Hu Jintao and President Putin, and last night I talked to Prime Minister Koizumi and President Roh. And my message was that we want to solve this problem diplomatically, and the best way to solve the problem diplomatically is for all of us to be working in concert, and to send one message, and that is — to Kim Jong-il — that we expect you to adhere to international norms and we expect you to keep your word.

Moreover, Perino is wrong. Last January, Bush did set a time limit on the Israel-Palestine situation, saying “there will be a signed peace treaty by the time I leave office,” adding, “I am on a timetable — got 12 months.” So perhaps Bush has just checked out and is no longer interested in Middle East peace. After all, last week, he said he is “eager for a more carefree life in Dallas.”

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