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Global Boiling: Australia’s Black Saturday Of Extreme Fire

Our guest blogger is Erica Newman, research associate at the College of Natural Resources and Center for Fire Research and Outreach at the University of California, Berkeley.

Firetruck fleeing the bushfire.Even in Australia, where people have learned to live with large wildfires, February’s “Black Saturday” fires in Victoria blew away all expectations. Of the hundreds that died, those who stayed had no time to prepare, and many who fled were overtaken by the fast-spreading flames and died in their cars. Multiple days of above 100-degree Fahrenheit temperatures, extremely low relative humidity and 100 mile per hour winds resulted in an unstoppable spread of the flames, 100-200 foot flame lengths, and fire intensity unlike anything ever before recorded anywhere on the planet.

Wildfire expert Max Moritz, a professor at the College of Natural Resources and Center for Fire Research and Outreach at the University of California, Berkeley, explains these extreme conditions raise new questions:

Although we won’t know many of the details until an assessment of the recent Australian fires is completed, the weather conditions and rates of fire spread we’re hearing about are extreme. It highlights a special case for both agencies and homeowners, and we have a lot to learn from each other about what does and does not work under weather conditions that are this bad.

So what caused this colossal inferno? In pointing to arson as the cause of these fires, we miss the overall significance of the fire dynamics that gave rise to this event. While arson is a lamentable and criminal source of ignition, with relative humidity and fuel moisture at below four percent, a lit cigarette or a spark thrown off by a moving vehicle could have caused similar wildland fires. Where there are people, there are always sources of ignition — what fire scientists call the “human-ignition component.” The larger issue at stake here is what gave rise to such extreme fire weather.

Australian fire scientists say that this area of Victoria has experienced between five and 30 years of drought (depending on if you are counting by successive years or overall water balances), the worst in perhaps 1000 years. Some, perhaps rightly, blame global climate change for what is known as the “Big Dry.” Diminishing rainfall, increased temperatures, and increased atmospheric instability all lead to higher fire danger.

An open question for scientists is whether or not with global climate change, we are experiencing “novel ecosystems” with entirely new combinations of environmental conditions. Is Australia really experiencing a “drought,” which is less-than-normal rainfall, or is there a new normal? Should Australia listen to its firefighters and be preparing for a permanently drier future with much more intense fire dynamics?

Australia has a history of successful fire management. Because of the inevitability of fire in Australia’s fire-evolved ecosystems, people have learned to expect and prepare for fires in a highly efficient, centralized manner. The “Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early” policies have long protected the lives of both citizens and firefighters, and reduced damage to homes and other buildings.

In a paper out this week in Environmental Research Letters, four Australian scientists and three scientists from California including Moritz, examine the policies and recommendations that both countries have in place for dealing with wildland fire on the urban interface.

In the “prepare, stay and defend” approach, property-owners are educated in fire suppression, such as putting out spot-fires, having buckets of water on hand, filling house gutters with water, creating a “defensible space,” and so on. People who chose to stay with their homes are also encouraged to keep protective Nomex clothing and firefighting implements on hand. Those who follow the “leave early” strategy do so when fire is reported for their area to give the wildfire a wide berth.

The unusual combination of extreme fire weather and the sudden onset of fire created conditions in which neither strategy worked. Leaving early works only if there is time to send out a warning. Those who would “prepare, stay, and defend” would have been reducing fuel loads in their yards well before this event, but it is unclear whether landscape-scale fuel treatments or even lowering fuel loads in the immediate vicinity of structures lowers fire hazard in wind-driven events, such as this one.

It will be up to Australian fire scientists and policy analysts to decide if their fire strategies need review. It the face of so primal a force as fire and on this scale, fighting the fires themselves is impossible, but perhaps one solution–fighting global climate change–is not.

Update

The state of Victoria has “declared a total ban on open fires tomorrow as high temperatures and strong winds are forecast to return this week.”

Yglesias

Meet The New Boss

The Obama administration seems just as determined as the Bush administration was to making sure that nobody has any legal recourse if they’ve been subject to illegal surveillance. The process is getting pretty Kafkaesque here; the basic shape of things is that you can’t sue the government over secret illegal surveillance because since the surveillance happened in secret, you can’t prove it happened. And you can’t get the documents that might prove it happened, because that would compromise the secrecy.

Personally, I don’t see any way that could wind up leading to abuses.

Yglesias

Netanyahu Refuses to Accept Palestine’s Right to Exist

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In Haaretz, Aluf Benn takes a look at Bejamin Netanyahu’s opposition to the creation of an independent State of Palestine:

There are obvious political reasons for Netanyahu’s refusal to demonstrate a more moderate stance: It would cost him his potential coalition with the right-wing National Union and Habayit Hayehudi, and force him into a rotation arrangement with Livni. But his opposition to a Palestinian state is also a matter of principle, one he has held for many years.

Netanyahu says he doesn’t want to rule over the Palestinians, and has no interest in Nablus, Tul Karm or Jenin; they should govern their own lives, as long as they don’t threaten Israeli security, he says. Netanyahu seeks to deny the Palestinians four rights of any sovereign state: control of its airspace; control of its electromagnetic spectrum; the right to maintain an army and to sign military alliances; and, most importantly, control of the border crossings where arms and terrorists could pass. Netanyahu believes Israel must retain all of these. [...]

Netanyahu believes Israel must insist on retaining 50 percent of the West Bank – the open areas in the Jordan Valley and the Judean Desert that are vital as a security zone. In light of statements the outgoing government has made to the Palestinians, Netanyahu’s position is a joke meant to kill the negotiations before they even begin.

In an interview with Lally Weymouth in yesterday’s Washington Post, Netanyahu elegantly avoided the question about two states. Instead of merely saying “No,” he presented a vague formulation: “The Palestinians should have the ability to govern their lives but not to threaten ours.” Such a statement doesn’t explicitly discount the creation of an independent Palestinian state, nor does it address the fine points of control and sovereignty.

Needless to say, an Arab who refused to concede Israel’s “right to exist” would be considered persona non grata in the United States. And I don’t think a Palestinian leader who said he wasn’t opposed to the existence of Israel, he just wanted to disband the IDF, establish Palestinian control over Israeli airspace and EM spectrum, and give Palestine control over all of Israel’s borders would be taken very seriously. As it seems a democratic process has put Netanyahu in office as Prime Minister, he needs to be dealt with. But his current policy should be seen as what it is; an effort to avoid the creation of a sovereign Palestine under any circumstances. Netanyahu seems to be a realist about both his own political interests and his perceptions of Israeli national interest, but that means American policy needs to be aimed, in part, at changing how the calculus of interests looks to him.

Politics

O’Reilly to speak at fundraising event for rape victims.

News Hounds points out that on March 19, Fox News host Bill O’Reilly is slated to speak at a fundraiser for the Alexa Foundation, a group committed to supporting rape survivors:

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In the past, however, O’Reilly has made controversial comments about an 18-year-old woman, Jennifer Moore, who was raped and murdered, implying that it was partially her fault. O’Reilly called her “moronic,” adding:

Now Moore, Jennifer Moore, 18, on her way to college. She was 5-foot-2, 105 pounds, wearing a miniskirt and a halter top with a bare midriff. Now, again, there you go. So every predator in the world is gonna pick that up at two in the morning. She’s walking by herself on the West Side Highway, and she gets picked up by a thug. All right. Now she’s out of her mind, drunk.

Yglesias

Obama’s Opportunity

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For another take on the whole “socialist” thing, it’s useful to look at Rick Hertzberg’s take on Friday’s Krauthammer column:

If Barack Obama succeeds, his joint address to Congress will be seen as historic—indeed as the foundational document of Obamaism. As it stands, it constitutes the boldest social democratic manifesto ever issued by a U.S. president.

Obama sees the current economic crisis as an opportunity. He has said so openly. And now we know what opportunity he wants to seize. Just as the Depression created the political and psychological conditions for Franklin Roosevelt’s transformation of America from laissez-faireism to the beginnings of the welfare state, the current crisis gives Obama the political space to move the still (relatively) modest American welfare state toward European-style social democracy.

Hertzberg remarks: “From your keyboard to God’s ear”

For a more fleshed-out positive take on this, read my former boss Bob Kuttner’s book Obama’s Challenge: America’s Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency. I’m actually not so certain that this “crisis = opportunity” perspective is correct. The opportunity rests in the election results. And the election results are clearly related, in part, to the collapse of the economy. But the opportunity would actually be much greater if the economic problems were much less severe than they actually are. The ideal scenario would have been a panic lasting a few months that turned out to have relatively little real bite. Otherwise, bad times both open the conceptual window and narrow the fiscal window with it being hard to say which will win out in the end.

I would also say that, contra Krauthammer, Obama has been pretty clear about his overall vision since at least the winter of 2007-2008. New investments in education and infrastructure, health care that’s affordable for all, and a move to a more sustainable carbon emissions regime have always been the agenda of all the major Democratic presidential contenders and so the odds of someone winning on platform like that have looked quite good for a long time now, back before most people believed there was any kind of crisis.

Yglesias

Gates: Obama Makes Sure He Hears From Everybody in the Room

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was clearly reluctant to answer David Gregory’s question about the contrasting leadership styles between President Bush and President Obama. But when pressed he explained that Obama is “more analytical” and goes further out of his way to hear from diverse viewpoints:

GATES: I think that probably President Obama is somewhat more analytical, and he makes sure he hears from everybody in the room on an issue. And if they don’t speak up, he calls on them.

Q: A marked difference from his predecessor?

GATES: President Bush was interested in hearing different points of view but didn’t go out of his way to make sure everybody spoke if they hadn’t spoken up before.

This is a reminder of a point that I think’s been difficult to fully articulate in the Chas Freeman debate. I think there’s truth to the criticisms of Freeman’s hard-bitten strain of realpolitik. But no administration is monolithic, and given the disastrous consequences of our 2002-2006 flirtation with total irrealism I don’t think it’s a bad idea at all to have some Freeman-style ballast on the ship. If Obama seemed to be assembling an entire administration that was unconcerned with human rights abroad, that would be another thing, but that’s not what’s happening here.

Politics

Vanden Huevel rips Rove: ‘It’s laughable for you to talk about fiscal responsibility.’

Today on ABC’s This Week, Karl Rove slammed the cost of President Obama’s new budget. The Nation’s Katrina Vanden Heuvel quickly fired back at Rove’s newly-discovered sense of fiscal responsibility, observing that Rove and President Bush “helped plunge this nation into trillion dollars of debt”:

VANDEN HEUEVEL: But, Mr. Rove –

ROVE: Call me Karl.

VANDEN HEUVEL: It’s laughable for you to talk about fiscal responsibility from someone who helped plunge this nation into trillion dollars of debt, through tax cuts for the very rich and a war we never should have fought. And also starving the beast. Starving government has been a Republican role in terms of government. And, therefore, when George asks why government hasn’t functioned, people have not seen the role of government improving the conditions of their lives for decades.

Watch it:

Pollster Stan Greenberg also chided Rove. “It’s a remarkable lecture considering the performance,” he said.

Climate Progress

House abandons rip-offset purchase. Now can it abandon them in a climate bill?

While I am not one to say “I told you so” [cough, cough], what else is the proper response to today’s Washington Post story by David Fahrenthold: House Is Abandoning Carbon Neutral Plan: Move Highlights Congress’s Green Struggle“:

The U.S. House of Representatives has abandoned a plan to make its offices “carbon neutral,” a sign that Congress is wrestling with a pledge to become more green even as it crafts sweeping legislation on climate change.

The promise that the House would effectively reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to zero was a centerpiece of the Green the Capitol program in which the new Democratic leadership sought to use Capitol Hill as a kind of a national demonstration project.

But last week, a spokesman for the House’s chief administrative officer said the chamber’s leadership had dropped an essential part of the plan, the purchase of “carbon offsets” to cancel out emissions from its buildings.

I had been quoted criticizing the rip-offset purchase, especially from the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), in a Fahrenthold piece from a year ago (see House carbon offsets “a waste of taxpayer money”).

So I applaud the House decision, as I told Fahrenthold in an interview he didn’t use [Note to self: Get over it!]. I wouldn’t, however, frame it the way he did in the piece.

Read more

Yglesias

Tax Policy With Media Celebrities

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Barack Obama has proposed a budget that, among other things, would reduce taxes on over 90 percent of the population and increase taxes on around 2 percent of the population. Flipping through the Sunday talk shows, it’s striking to see how uniformly wealthy media celebrities think it makes sense to characterize this is a “tax increase” or “raising taxes” and to leap immediately to a discussion of what the impact of these “higher taxes” will be. I think that the majority of people whose taxes are set to go down might be more interested in learning about the impact of lower taxes.

But I suppose this is how the world really looks from David Gregory’s chair. A rich person is somewhat like Jeffrey Immelt who earns tens of millions of dollars in salary and bonuses during good years, and in bad years he waives some of what he’s owed, accepting mere millions in new salary, and gets hailed for his generosity. One assumes that with this multi-million dollar annual salary, he also has investment income. The lower classes in this universe are like Chris Matthews and David Shuster and need to host cable shows. And a David Gregory or a Brian Williams—hosting a network television show, to be sure, but not owning the network—becomes a typical middle-class American.

Politics

Eric Cantor Tries To Distance Himself From Rush: ‘I Don’t Think Anyone Wants Anything To Fail’

This morning on ABC’s This Week, host George Stephanopoulos asked House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) whether he subscribes to Rush Limbaugh’s hope that President Obama fails:

STEPHANOPOULOS: So the Rush Limbaugh approach of hoping the President fails is not the Eric Cantor/House Republican approach?

CANTOR: George, absolutely not. I don’t think anyone wants anything to fail right now. We have such challenges. What we need to do is put forth solutions to the problems that real families are facing today.

Watch it:

Limbaugh reiterated his hope that Obama fails last night. But Limbaugh is not alone. In fact, as ThinkProgress has documented, the list of right-wing conservatives who hope Obama fails is growing. Just this week, the following conservatives joined Limbaugh:

Rick Santorum: “Absolutely we hope his policies fail.”

Tom DeLay: Asked whether he wants Obama to fail, DeLay responded, “Well, exactly right. I don’t want this for our nation.”

Michelle Malkin: “Yes, I hope that fails.”

On Friday, Limbaugh conceded, “The dirty little secret…is that every Republican in this country wants Obama to fail, but none of them have the guts to say so; I am willing to say it.” According to Limbaugh, Eric Cantor must be one of those Republicans without the guts to say what he really feels.

Update

Chief of staff Rahm Emanuel said on CBS this morning that Limbaugh is the leader and “intellectual force” of the GOP.

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