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Yglesias

There’s a Reason They Call Him the “Supreme” Leader

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Matt Duss makes the excellent point that we could probably do with less close-reading of Iranian political developments:

Yesterday, the New York Times reported that one of former Iranian president — and current presidential candidate — Mohamed Khatami’s most prominent backers, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, switched to support one of Khatami’s rivals, Mehdi Kharroubi. Both candidates are considered reformers, and have been critical of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Today the Washington Post reports that another critic of Ahamedinejad, former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi has also announced his candidacy. But while it’s fair to see all of this as evidence of popular discontent with Ahmadinejad’s poor stewardship of the economy, as always it’s unclear what, if anything, any of this says about Iranian supreme leader Khamenei’s orientation toward rapprochement with the U.S., which is the key consideration.

As Duss says, whatever relevance this may have to purely domestic Iranian issues, Americans need to remember that “Regardless of which leaders and factions are up or down at any given moment, Ayatollah Khamenei is always up.” This was a point beloved of the right-wing back during the Khatami era as it was seen to undermine the case for engagement. But the real case for engagement isn’t based on assessing Iranian personalities, it’s a calculation of strategic interests. And that means engaging with the guy calling the shots—Khamenei. It may be impossible to reach a rapprochement, perhaps he doesn’t want one. But it’s worth trying. And that means trying in good faith, which means trying with the man in charge, not trying to think of clever ways to bypass him.

Politics

Steele Goes From Being ‘Pro-Life His Entire Adult Life’ To Believing Abortion Is An ‘Individual Choice’

steelebus.jpg GQ has a new interview with Michael Steele, in which the embattled RNC chairman says that he is pro-choice:

GQ: Are you saying you think women have the right to choose abortion?

STEELE: Yeah. I mean, again, I think that’s an individual choice. [...]

GQ: Are you saying you don’t want to overturn Roe v. Wade?

STEELE: I think Roe v. Wade—as a legal matter, Roe v. Wade was a wrongly decided matter.

GQ: Okay, but if you overturn Roe v. Wade, how do women have the choice you just said they should have?

STEELE: The states should make that choice. That’s what the choice is. The individual choice rests in the states. Let them decide.

Steele is shifting from what he has said in the past. As recently as November 2008, he supported the GOP platform on a constitutional ban on abortion, although he was “skeptical” of tinkering with the Constitution:

In an editorial board meeting at The Washington Times on Tuesday, Mr. Steele clarified his stance, saying that he thinks Roe should be overturned as a sloppy piece of decision-making, favors state regulation on abortion, and supports the Republican party’s platform that calls for a constitutional ban on abortion. … Mr. Steele added however that he is skeptical of changing the Constitution, fearing that the process will get out of control.

Steele, in fact, presented himself as a strong pro-life candidate when running for the RNC chairmanship. Family Research Council president Tony Perkins said that Steele had “shown a commitment to the values that were once the GOP’s guiding light,” including on abortion. Here’s how Steele pitched himself on his campaign website (cached site here):

No one should ever doubt Michael Steele’s commitment to life. He has been pro-life his entire adult life. In 2006 he was endorsed for US Senate by National Right to Life and Maryland Right to Life. He ran as a staunchly pro-life candidate in a state that rarely elects pro-life candidates.

In its Oct. 25, 2006 endorsement of Steele’s U.S. Senate run, the Washington Times wrote, “Mr. Steele is staunchly pro-life (parting with many Republicans who support abortion in cases of rape and incest) and he is a free trader.”

This announcement will likely add fuel to the fire of his critics, who are already upset that he slighted their real leader.

Update

Today on MSNBC’s Hardball, host Chris Matthews read the abortion segment of the GQ interview and exclaimed, “I have no idea what this man is saying. Is he for human rights or states’ rights? He ought to know the difference. Does a person decide, or does the state legislature, or the state government, or the state court?”

Media

Vive La France

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Henry Farrell has a good post taking on some odd recent punditocratic assertions that the United States is in danger of imminent Frenchification. To take this idea a bit more seriously than it merits, it’s worth observing that if you take ideas about path dependence and institutional structure seriously—and you should!—you’ll see right away that the United States couldn’t possibly become France, whether or not Barack Obama or I or anyone else wants it to.

Nothing can happen in U.S. federal politics that’s the equivalent to the scenario that arises in the Fifth Republic when the President commands a majority in the parliament. Barack Obama’s relationship with the congressional Democrats is just nothing like what Nicholas Sarkozy is, in practice, empowered to do with a parliamentary majority. Similarly, the powers of the national government are completely different in the two countries—the subordinate levels of government in France, for example, have no authority to set tax rates. But the United States has its own currency and its own monetary policy which France doesn’t. There’s no metropolitan area in the United States that plays a role even remotely resembling the centrality of Paris in French life, and given the size of the United States there’s nothing you could possibly do to give any metropolitan area that kind of centrality. For all these reasons, to try to do something like adopt the French approach to education would be completely impossible in the United States. But the French education system is integral to the entire operation of the French political and economic system.

Meanwhile, the general habit of looking at departures from the status quo in the United States and immediately comparing them to France is incredibly lazy and inappropriate. Total taxation (including state and local government) in the United States amounts to 28.3 percent of GDP. In France, it’s 43.6 percent of GDP. We’d have to go past such more-generous-than-the-US Anglophone welfare states as Australia, Ireland, Canada, and New Zealand before arriving at the legendary statist nightmare of Germany at 36.2 percent and then plow through the U.K., Spain, the Netherlands, and even such Nordic all-stars as Iceland, Finland, and Norway before you got a French level of taxation. Under the circumstances, it would make a lot more sense to ask if Barack Obama is trying to turn the United States into Ireland—universal health care, slightly higher taxes, somewhat more unions, different St Patrick’s Day celebration—than France. France is just a weird bugaboo for Americans, but it’s just about the least-enlightening comparison you could ask for.

Media

‘Fair And Balanced’ Fox News Wages Assault On Unions, Distorts Facts Of Employee Free Choice Act

Yesterday, the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) — a bill that makes it easier for workers to form unions and prevent employer harassment and intimidation — was introduced in both the House and Senate. The bill allows workers to unionize if a majority agrees, rather than forcing them to go through the months-long and often fruitless process of negotiating with powerful employers for the right to organize.

With a multi-million dollar campaign to defeat the bill under way, Fox News has enthusiastically taken up the anti-union, Big Business talking points. Even putting aside the network’s frequent right-wing guests, Fox News hosts describe EFCA using anti-union rhetoric while constantly distorting the truth about the legislation:

– BILL HEMMER: “Soon Americans who want to say no to unions might not be able to vote in private.

– BILL O’REILLY: “Union officials have an open invitation to appear here on The Factor. They won’t, because their arguments for socialism won’t stand up.

– MARTHA MACCULLUM: “This is going to make it very tough for small businesses to function. … They might have to lay people off!

Watch some of the worst examples from the last 72 hours:

No matter how many times it’s been debunked, the Fox hosts keep repeating the falsehood that workers will no longer have access to a secret ballot under EFCA. The legislation does not eliminate the secret ballot. The bill would simply allow workers to choose whether to have a majority sign-up or a normal election process. And as American Rights At Work points out, a secret ballot is no guarantee to a fair election. Under current rules, union organizers do not have equal access to voters, the right to free speech, funding and resources equal to employers, or the ability to bring about elections in a timely manner.

More than concern for the secret ballot, the Fox hosts make it clear they are simply against unions. When they insist that union bosses — not employers — are intimidating workers, or when they declare that unions that drive up wages and benefits are harmful for Big Business, it’s clear whose side they’re on — and it’s not the American worker’s.

Economy

Sen. Hatch: Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes Is A ‘Stupid, Dumb-Ass’ Idea

America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) — the insurance industry’s lobbying arm — is hosting a health care policy forum in Washington D.C. This is the third of a series of posts from inside the conference.

At the AHIP conference today, ThinkProgress asked Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) about some issues other than health care, and Hatch wound up expressing his distaste for the Obama administration’s tax policy. In particular, Hatch railed against Obama’s tentative proposal to no longer allow U.S.-based companies to defer paying taxes on profits made overseas:

The Obama approach is to tax the profits of domestic corporations overseas. I can’t tell you — companies are going to leave. I had one of the leading pharmaceutical company’s leaders tell me, he said, if that goes through we’re moving to Switzerland, we’re moving the whole company. We’ve lost a lot of our Fortune 500 companies because of these stupid, dumb-ass tax laws. And they are really stupid.

Watch it:

Actually, by only taxing these profits when they are repatriated to the U.S. — but leaving them untaxed overseas — the government is encouraging overseas investment and the exporting of jobs. As James Kvaal explained:

The United States does not tax foreign profits unless they are returned to the United States. Alongside low tax rates in some foreign countries, the result is a strong incentive to invest overseas. As many as 3 million American jobs have been moved offshore, and the U.S. Treasury loses tens of billions of dollars a year in offshore tax evasion.

The Joint Committee on Taxation has found that the failure to tax foreign income of U.S. controlled corporations will cost the government $56.4 billion in lost tax revenues between 2008 and 2012.

Closing these offshore loopholes can’t be done on a unilateral basis, however. The U.S. needs to work with its allies abroad to confront tax havens and prevent harmful tax competition, as “we all have an interest in protecting our economy, collecting the taxes that are owed, and maintaining the progressive nature of our tax codes.” In any case, the status quo, which costs the U.S. tax revenue and jobs, is unacceptable.

Politics

Congress’s approval rating jumps from 19 to 39 percent since January.

A new Gallup poll out today found that 39 percent of Americans approve of the job that Congress is doing, up from 19 percent in January and 14 percent last year. The rating marks “the most positive assessment of Congress since February 2005.” Gallup notes that the increase suggests the reason for the improved ratings “include an assessment of the work Congress has been doing with the new president on the economy and other issues.” Indeed, since January, Congress passed an economic recovery bill, legislation making it easier for women to sue for pay discrimination and a bill expanding health care coverage for children with overall health care reform on the agenda.

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Yglesias

On the Bus With Chas Freeman

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Conor Clarke ran into Chas Freeman on the 42 bus this morning:

I introduced myself and told him I was sorry that he resigned. He recoiled only slightly when I mentioned I worked for the Atlantic, then smiled broadly. “Shit happens.” He added a little wistfully: “I wasn’t so eager to go back to the government, anyway.”

I asked him what he thought of his critics. “I don’t pay much attention to the blogosphere. But I did read Jim Fallows. Fallows actually seemed to have read what I said.”

The woman next to me suddenly pieced it together. “Now I know who you are!” She hesitated for a second. “I still disagree with you.” Others on the bus started to look confused, even a little worried.

Freeman smiled again, and laughed. “I guess now I’m a notorious personality.” He went back to reading his novel. A few stops later, he got off the bus.

And, indeed, shit does happen.

Yglesias

Department of WTF

One of the best ideas to come out of the New Deal was the FDIC. You guarantee that the government will ensure that bank depositors get their money back even if a bank fails. Consequently, there are no “runs” on banks. Consequently, banks rarely fail. But still they sometimes fail, and to be credible the FDIC needs to have some money it can give to depositors. Since the deposit insurance is good for the banks, you do this by levying insurance premiums on banks. Works great. One of the least controversial government programs there is. And yet:

The federal agency that insures bank deposits, which is asking for emergency powers to borrow up to $500 billion to take over failed banks, is facing a potential major shortfall in part because it collected no insurance premiums from most banks from 1996 to 2006. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which insures deposits up to $250,000, tried for years to get congressional authority to collect the premiums in case of a looming crisis. But Congress believed that the fund was so well-capitalized – and that bank failures were so infrequent – that there was no need to collect the premiums for a decade, according to banking officials and analysts.

I don’t think we should beat around the bush here. “Congress” didn’t “believe” anything—Congress believed that they could legislate a giveaway to the banks and nobody would notice or care.

Robert Shiller makes the case in Animal Spirits that this kind of thing, the revelation of corruption and untrustworthiness in key institutions, does a lot to depress our spirits.

Media

Poll: Number Of Americans Who Think Global Warming Is ‘Exaggerated’ Is Increasing

In a Q&A at the Wonk Room today, Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD) was asked why “the media still giving space” to global warming deniers. “I’m hopeful that while the old talking heads are still singing the ‘anti-science’ tune, most of America doesn’t really believe it,” replied Edwards.

Unfortunately, a new Gallup poll shows that while a majority of Americans still believe global warming is happening, a record number now say that it is “exaggerated” by the news media:

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Considering the manner in which the media covers global warming, it’s not surprising that the public is confused. For instance, when conservative columnist George Will published demonstrably false claims about climate change in the Washington Post, the Post refused to run a correction. Editorial page editor, Fred Hiatt, defended Will, claiming that he was simply “drawing inferences from data that most scientists reject” and that his critics were “irresponsible.”

In 2007, former Vice President Al Gore pointed out that studies have found that “essentially zero percent of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles disagreed that global warming exists,” but that “53 percent of mainstream newspaper articles disagreed [with] the global warming premise.” Gore says that this is “balance as bias.”

Climate Progress

Must-have PPT: The “global-change-type drought” and the future of extreme weather

This must-have slide (click to enlarge) comes from a 2005 study, “Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.” I first saw it in a powerful 2005 presentation by climatologist Jonathan Overpeck, “Warm climate abrupt change–paleo-perspectives,” that concluded “climate change seldom occurs gradually.”

Overpeck noted that the 2005 study, together with the recent evidence that temperature [in red] and annual precipitation [in blue] are headed in opposite directions in the U.S. Southwest, raises the question of whether we are at the “dawn of the super-interglacial drought.”

Before explaining why I like this slide and how it shows the future of extreme weather, I need to review the conclusion of the study, which was led by the University of Arizona, with Los Alamos National Laboratory and the U.S. Geological Survey:

Read more

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