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Yglesias

Going Too Big With the Afghan Army

I think the question of whether or not to send more U.S. forces to Afghanistan has perhaps gotten more attention than it deserves relative to other questions in play regarding our conduct in that region. One such question is what appears to be a trend toward more and more airstrikes in Pakistan, even as everyone acknowledges that this is not a sustainable solution. Another is this business about trying to give Afghanistan a 400,000-strong army.

Andrew Exum notes that “a massive security apparatus of 400,000 men might be more than the Afghan economy can sustain over the long term.” And indeed it might. Our Army has about 540,000 active duty soldiers for a much richer country with many more people and worldwide ambitions. Admittedly, we also have reservists and an Air Force and Marines and Navy and other branches. But still, a 400,000-strong army would be enormous army for a country like Afghanistan and the budget being proposed to train and equip it is larger than the entire budget budget of the Afghan government.

It’s hard to know how this ends. You demobilize and they become warlord bands? You keep them in place, by far the most powerful institution in Afghanistan and dependent on the U.S. taxpayer for their budget, thus securing us a little colony in the central Asian mountains?

Media

Fox News’s Brit Hume Warns That Because Of Blogs, Future News Will Be ‘More Partisan’

humeweb.jpgLast night, the conservative Media Research Center, which houses the ever on point NewsBusters blog, hosted its annual “DisHonors” media awards gala in Washington, D.C. Aside from the cornier “Media Messiah” and “Obamagasm” media honors the group bestowed to alleged “liberal” members of the press, MRC presented Fox News’s Brit Hume with its “William F. Buckley Jr. Award for Media Excellence.” In his acceptance speech, Hume warned of the dangers of the rise of blogs and news being “presented from one political viewpoint”:

HUME: What are we getting?…We’re getting bloggers and websites and all sorts of individual entrepreneurs, and we have a vaster menu of choices today than we’ve ever had. But I think that we also have the danger that everything will be presented from one political viewpoint or the other, and that the media that confront us are going to be more partisan than ever — which means that the Media Research Center will have a mission for many years to come, and a good thing that is.

Hume’s warning is rather odd because in the very same speech, he thanked the MRC — an unabashedly conservative outfit — for feeding him information for his reports as anchor of Fox News’s Special Report:

HUME: I want to say a word, however, of thanks, to [MRC president] Brent [Bozell] and to the team at the Media Research Center and all the contributors who make that work there possible. [...] also for the tremendous amount of material that the Media Research Center provided me for so many years when I was anchoring Special Report. I don’t know what we would have done without them. It was a daily, sort of a buffet of material to work from, and we — we — we certainly made tremendous use of it.

But if anyone would know anything about reporting from a certain political point of view, it is Brit Hume. During this past presidential campaign, Hume (perhaps unknowingly) took part in the right wing campaign to paint Barack Obama as a Muslim — first suggesting that Obama had previously practiced Islam and later falsely claiming that Obama’s brother “is not sure sure” Barack is Christian.

Moreoever, Hume has claimed that al-Qaeda in Iraq “was there before we got there,” that “the problem” with the Walter Reed affair was that it looked bad for former President Bush, and that Democrats “are kind of embarrassed by patriotism.” He recently said Bush put America on an “amazing” foreign policy path. And over the years, Hume’s reports have routinely contained conservative misinformation, especially on global warming and the Valerie Plame CIA leak scandal.

But even though Hume stepped down as anchor of Special Report, he still gets paid to offer his dangerous commentary for the Fox News Channel.

Update

U.S. News reports that Hume “got outshone by another conservative darling — Joe the Plumber” at the MRC’s gala.

Health

The Deficit Reduction Health Care Reform Act Of 2009

When MSNBC broke the news that the CBO is projecting a $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009, the very first question daytime anchor Tamron Hall asked Washington Post columnist Steven Pearlstein was: will Obama have to scale back his plans to reform the health care system?

HALL: They were talking about what hard decisions the President will have to make in his first term, if he’s obviously not elected to a second one. He wants to tackle health care, he was at that town hall, talking about his bold agenda. Will he have to soon start to perhaps give Americans the tough love that maybe it won’t all be done now?

Watch it:

Pearlstein pushed back the conventional wisdom and pointed out that the best way to get deficits under control is to slow down “the key driver of those long-term deficits,” skyrocketing health care costs.

In fact, according to the CBO report, the president’s $634 billion health care fund is entirely revenue neutral:

Therefore, the President’s budget—and CBO in its analysis of the budget—shows no net effect on either revenues or outlays from this set of proposals (that is, revenue reductions related to health care reform are assumed to offset the revenue gains from changing the rate applied to itemized deductions, and outlays for health care reform are assumed to equal the outlay savings from the proposed policy changes).

So to make sure everyone is on the same page we should just call the health care bill what it actually is: a deficit reduction act.

Yglesias

The IndyMac Example: Nationalization Works

indymac.jpg

Branches of the bank formerly known as IndyMac, the largest bank nationalized by the FDIC during the current crisis, reopened today under new management and new ownership. As Pat Garofalo observes, “Even though it cost more than originally estimated, the successful nationalization and re-privatization of IndyMac — the fourth largest bank ever seized by federal regulators — shows that taking over troubled financial institutions, clearing them of their troubled assets, and selling them back to the private sector can be done.”

Nobody should kid themselves about the costs involved. Nationalizing larger institutions wouldn’t be an alternative to the federal government spending a ton of money. But at the same time, avoiding nationalization while keeping zombie institutions afloat isn’t a low-cost alternative to nationalization. And as we’re seeing with the furor over the AIG bonuses, keeping public officials at arm’s length from managing an institution that depends on government support to stay in business hardly succeeds in keeping the institution out of political controversy. All it does is muddy the lines of authority and responsibility, making it difficult to maintain consistent and politically sustainable policies.

Working with very large institutions would not be the same as working with IndyMac. In all likelihood looking at new legislation is a good idea as some kind of new process would need to be set up. Still, this solution remains the best approach. If the administration’s in need of political cover, they can bring nationalization support Doug Holtz-Eakin on board.

Climate Progress

Inside The Beltway, Political ‘Reality’ Trumps Actual Reality

After it was reported that House Democrats do not intend to include President Obama’s carbon cap legislation in a non-filibusterable budget reconciliation bill, ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos called health care “the survivor“:

Cap and trade will not get the same budget protection, and there are nowhere near 60 votes for it. Keeping it out of the reconciliation process recognizes reality: Congress can’t pass it in the middle of a recession.

Delaying climate legislation doesn’t “recognize reality” — it ignores it. As top climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf explained at the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress last week, the observed reality is worse than climate models have been predicting. Even limiting global warming to two degrees Centigrade above historical levels — 1.3 degrees (2.3 F) above current temperatures — isn’t as safe as Russian roulette:

I personally as a climate scientist, I could not honestly go and tell the public that two degrees warming is safe. We’re already seeing a lot of impacts of the 0.7 degrees warming that we’ve had so far. So I consider two degrees not safe. And John Schellnhuber this morning asked about the question “Is Russian roulette dangerous?” and in Russian roulette you have a one in six chance of something terrible happening, I think that when we go to two degrees we probably have more than a one in six chance of really bad impacts occurring.

Watch it:

Update

Stephanopoulos responds via Twitter (punctuation added):

Fair point. I should have emphasized “political” reality.


Update

,At 538.com, Nate Silver writes:

The risk in putting off cap-and-trade, of course, is that “later” may turn out to mean “never” — and “never” is not an acceptable alternative when we are near so many environmental tipping points. It’s easy enough to imagine a scenario in which the economic recovery is slow in coming, the Dems become skittish about advancing cap-and-trade in an election year (2010), they nevertheless lose a bunch of seats during the midterms, and then Sarah Palin gets elected in 2012 and we’re all burning moose dung and invading Alberta a few years later.

Yglesias

Ben Bernanke Calls for Compensation Reform

bernanke.jpg

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke says something’s amiss with Wall Street’s pay structure:

Poorly designed compensation policies can create perverse incentives that can ultimately jeopardize the health of the banking organization,” Mr. Bernanke said during a speech in Phoenix to the Independent Community Bankers of America. “Management compensation policies should be aligned with the long-term prudential interests of the institution.”

There are two kinds of issues here. One is what should the government do (or have done) with “normal” financial institutions. In this case, I don’t think it would be appropriate for government to step in and try to tell firms how to pay their traders. But Ben Bernanke and other regulators, charged as they are with prudential oversight of the financial system, could certainly make known to the public their view that certain firms have a compensation structure that does not seem consistent with the long-term prudential interests of the institution.

At the moment, however, there’s the more direct issue of what to do with government-controlled or government-dependent enterprises. Here the case for forthright action is pretty clear. It’s our money, so we should insist that it be given to managers who are compensated in a way that’s aligned with long-term prudential interests. That would mean relatively low salaries and long-term equity in the firm so that you can strike it rich if and only if your work actually pays off well over time.

It’s important to think about this somewhat systematically. Right now there’s populist outrage about bonuses, but we don’t want to just shift to a system of low bonuses and giant fixed salaries. We need comprehensive reform, a la Brad DeLong’s suggestion.

Politics

Report: MSNBC ‘in discussions’ with Ed Schultz for ‘full-time’ job.

edschultz.jpgThe New York Observer reports that “MSNBC president Phil Griffin is in discussions with syndicated talk radio host Ed Schultz about possibly joining the network on a full-time basis.” The Observer says it is “unclear what exactly the job would entail” if they reach an agreement, but notes that it has been speculated that Schultz is being considered as a possible host of his own show:

When reached by phone on Friday morning, Mr. Schultz also denied that Mr. Griffin had made him an offer. He said that he had received some kind words from MSNBC management on the heels of his guest-hosting gigs. But, according to Mr. Schultz, MSNBC brass has given him no definite word yet about his future—if he has one—at the cable news network.

Speculation about Mr. Schultz’s future role at MSNBC has focused on two time slots: the 6 p.m. hour (currently anchored by David Shuster) and the 10 p.m. hour (which currently features a repeat of Countdown with Keith Olbermann).

Schultz recently guest-hosted Shuster’s show, which set off chatter that MSNBC was potentially “grooming” him for a hosting gig.

Yglesias

Israeli Soldiers Describe Atrocities in Gaza

Via Jonathan Zasloff, some accusations of serious war crimes from within IDF ranks:

20gaza_600_1.JPG

When asked why that elderly woman was killed, a squad commander was quoted as saying: “What’s great about Gaza — you see a person on a path, he doesn’t have to be armed, you can simply shoot him. In our case it was an old woman on whom I did not see any weapon when I looked. The order was to take down the person, this woman, the minute you see her. There are always warnings, there is always the saying, ‘Maybe he’s a terrorist.’ What I felt was, there was a lot of thirst for blood.” [...]

Amir Marmor, a 33-year-old history graduate student in Jerusalem and a military reservist, said in an interview with The New York Times that he was stunned to discover the way civilian casualties were discussed in training discussions before his tank unit entered Gaza in January. “Shoot and don’t worry about the consequences,” was the message from the top commanders, he said. Speaking of a lieutenant colonel who briefed the troops, Mr. Marmor said, “His whole demeanor was extremely gung ho. This is very, very different from my usual experience. I have been doing reserve duty for 12 years, and it was always an issue how to avoid causing civilian injuries. He said in this operation we are not taking any chances. Morality aside, we have to do our job. We will cry about it later.”

One doesn’t know the extent of these things, but both of the people speaking here are describing orders that were given to groups of people, not just individual instances of bad conduct. Needless to say, there are atrocities and war crimes associated with every war, so there’s no indication that this was any worse than any other military’s conduct. But by the same token, there are atrocities and war crimes associated with every war. A lot of the stateside supporters of this Israeli action seemed completely blind to that reality, as they imagined the IDF somehow stepping pristinely through the most densely populated place on earth and perfectly plucking out Hamas villains rather than, say, gunning down old ladies. That, however, is not the way of the world. And the result is a military operation that’s responsible for orders of magnitude more civilians deaths than were the rocket attacks it was supposedly going to put a stop to.

Next up, we’ll see if the new Netanyahu/Lieberman era of Israeli politics leads to any serious inquiries into these allegations with accountability for the culpable. I wouldn’t say I’m optimistic about that, but it could happen.

Economy

CNBC’s Haines Does It Again: ‘Do You Have Any Idea What Wall St. Would Look Like’ With $100,000 Salaries?

CNBC’s Mark Haines — who yesterday made waves by suggesting that Wall Street companies can’t “be run well” by those making under $250,000 and compared Wall Street executives to Nazis and Baathists while defending their bonuses — was at it again today.

While debating Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), Haines said those who think bailed-out executives shouldn’t receive bonuses are engaged in “witch-huntery.” He also expressed dismay at the thought of Wall Streeters working for a $100,000 salary:

This is witch-huntery. I’ll be perfectly honest with you. You and people who share your opinion seem to feel that, you know, let’s hold salaries on Wall Street to $100,000. Do you have any idea what Wall Street would look like if you did that?

Watch it:

As Sherman pointed out, it’s not the idea of bonuses and the salaries that’s the problem — it’s that the people receiving the bonuses and salaries are working for federally bailed-out enterprises. These are exceptional circumstances that call for a change in Wall Street’s standard operating procedure.

But this is not a zero-sum game. Here’s an suggestion from Brad DeLong on how to handle compensation for traders and executives, if they stick around and actually nurse the financial system back to health:

Traders and financial executives who are willing to work very hard for what are now government-owned enterprises should be offered the carrot of long-term restricted equity stakes: that if they do their jobs well and if the government makes a healthy return because of their skill, forethought, and diligence, they should make healthy returns as well.

Sounds reasonable.

Politics

Inhofe: The ‘Middle Eastern mentality’ is ‘worse’ than Nazism.

inhofe21.jpgSince President Obama took office, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) has emerged as one of the leading congressional voices opposing the closure of Guantanamo Bay. Yesterday, Inhofe discussed the issue on the G. Gordon Liddy Show, saying the U.S. needs to “keep the Gitmo open.” Inhofe said the “Middle Eastern mentality” of the detainees is more dangerous than that of Nazis:

LIDDY: Well, you know, that’s as if we had a hundred or fifty hardcore Nazi rotten…SS prisoners and instead of, you know, sending them back to Germany at the end of the war, we just turned them loose in the American communities. I mean, it doesn’t make any sense.

INHOFE: Well, this is a little worse than that, I think, because you’re dealing with the Middle Eastern mentality. And terrorists, you know, they don’t care about dying.

Listen here:

There are still innocent people there [Guantanamo],” former Colin Powell chief of staff Lawrence Wilkerson said yesterday. “Some have been there six or seven years.”

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