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Yglesias

Sons of Iraq Unraveling?

Back during the high tide of the “is the surge working?” debate, I was among those who kept worrying that the policy of funding Sunni “Sons of Iraq” militias who hadn’t by any means reconciled themselves (or vice-versa) to the idea of a Shiite-led Iraqi state seemed like something likely to blow up at the end of the day. Then it kept not happening, and attention sort of shifted to other grounds. But now as DDay observes, we’re seeing some blowups as Sunnis are not getting paid money they were promised, the government arrested a Sons of Iraq leader, and now some SOI folks have staged an armed uprising.

Perhaps this will boil over, more likely some way will be found to put a lid on things. But either way, fundamental questions about the nature of the Iraqi state continue to be unresolved. Part of the issue over “residual forces” is whether or not we think it’s smart to have the US military perpetually playing referee in these kind of disputes. Doing so will give us continued “influence” in the country and the region, but the costs will be high and the concrete benefits to American citizens are hard to see.

Media

Bill O’Reilly Scheduled To Appear On The View And Letterman This Week

We have good opportunities to keep the heat on Bill O’Reilly this coming week. On Monday, he is scheduled to appear on ABC’s The View:

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We can’t imagine that O’Reilly’s insensitive comments about the rape and murder of 18-year old Jennifer Moore — and his subsequent stalking of Amanda Terkel — would go over well with The View’s audience. (You can email The View here.)

Then on Tuesday, O’Reilly is scheduled to appear as a guest on David Letterman’s show. (You can contact Letterman’s show by emailing cbsmailbag@aol.com):

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O’Reilly has never explained his comments about the rape and murder of Moore, nor has he explained why he thinks it was appropriate to stalk Amanda for two hours while she was on vacation.

O’Reilly needs to be held accountable for his “ambush journalism,” which is an effort to target, harasses, and intimidate his opponents. O’Reilly’s producers have also accosted approximately 40 other victims. Last week, O’Reilly said on his show that Amanda was “certainly a villain” and referred to all of us at ThinkProgress as “insects.”

Our campaign is asking O’Reilly’s corporate sponsors to issue clear statements against O’Reilly’s mafia-style harassment operation. Over 20,000 of you have joined our campaign. Thank you for all that you’ve done and will continue to do.

Update

For those of you trying to get up to speed on the details of the O’Reilly campaign, please read this.


Update

,The far right is now defending the harassment tactics of Bill O’Reilly.

Politics

Chrysler responds to our campaign: ‘We currently do not have the O’Reilly Factor in our media rotation.’ (Updated)

chrysler.jpgChrysler LLC spokeswoman Carrie McElwee has responded to our Stop Supporting The O’Reilly Harassment Machine campaign with this statement:

We appreciate the diverse audience that television programming allows us to reach.

Chrysler buys network cable as a package but we currently do not have the O’Reilly Factor in our media rotation at this time.

Please join our campaign.

Update

Chrysler’s statement is surprising news. On Friday’s episode (3/27/09) of The O’Reilly Factor, the show announced, “This program is brought to you by Chrysler, Jeep, and Dodge.” Watch it:

Yglesias

Spanish Court Weighing Indictments of Bush-era War Criminals

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For a long stretch of the late Bush years I wondered if Spanish Judge Baltasar Garzón, famous for his prosecution of Pinochet and other efforts to assert universal jurisdiction over international human rights law, would put the Bush administration in his sights. And now it seems he has: “The officials include former attorney general Alberto Gonzales, former undersecretary of defense for policy Douglas Feith, former Cheney chief of staff David Addington, Justice Department officials John Yoo and Jay S. Bybee, and Pentagon lawyer William Haynes.”

The New York Times reports that “Spain can claim jurisdiction in the case because five citizens or residents of Spain who were prisoners at Guantánamo Bay have said they were tortured there.” They also observe that “some American experts said that even if warrants were issued their significance could be more symbolic than practical, and that it was a near certainty that the warrants would not lead to arrests if the officials did not leave the United States.”

I do think that symbolism is important in situations like these, so I wouldn’t dismiss the importance of symbolism. And while fear of traveling abroad isn’t the gravest punishment in the world, it’s not nothing. One also has to consider the element of time here. John Yoo will probably still be with us in thirty years, at which point the circumstances may have changed. And I think it’s important not to normalize these kind of crimes as the precise time and place of their commission fades into the background. Legal rulings help with that, even if they don’t lead to trials in the short-term.

Politics

Kristol on whether he owes the American public an apology for hyping Iraq WMD claims: ‘No.’

On Friday, the Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol appeared on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal. A caller criticized his publication for hyping President Bush’s pre-invasion lies about WMD in Iraq, and asked him to apologize to the American public. Kristol refused, saying that the war has been a smashing success:

CALLER: All of y’all hyped that to a degree that was just unimaginable. Even President Bush admitted there were no weapons of mass destruction there. In lieu of that fact — being the fact that there are 4,500 American lives lost there — will you personally apologize to those folks right now? Simple yes or no. Thank you.

KRISTOL: No. I think the war was right, and I think we’ve succeeded in the war. And I think those lives — we should honor those soldiers who gave their lives and who fought so hard, and also were wounded for what they did.

Kristol then tried to switch the topic, saying, “And also in Afghanistan, incidentally, it’s President Obama who’s announcing the increase in troops today. It’s not something he was forced into by the Weekly Standard or anyone else.” (As ThinkProgress noted this morning, Obama’s strategy for Afghanistan-Pakistan is not the same as Bush’s surge in Iraq.) Watch it:

Yglesias

A Full Plate is No Excuse for Discrimination

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Robert Gates’ statement that we shouldn’t expect the Obama administration to fulfill its pledge to end Don’t Ask Don’t Tell anytime soon is highly disappointing:

Defense Secretary Robert Gates says both he and President Barack Obama have “a lot on our plates right now.” As Gates puts it, “let’s push that one down the road a little bit.”

It’s simply the nature of the military that this “a lot on our plates right now” excuse will almost always be available. In retrospect, the 1990s were a period of relative peace and quiet for the military, but at the time it was seen as a stressful period of multiple deployments (to Haiti, Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia) around the world mixed with efforts at containment in the Gulf and the Korean peninsula. The Joint Chiefs are never going to say “eh . . . we don’t really have much going on these days.”

Meanwhile, racial desegregation of the military actually required a large number of active steps and was successfully carried out near the peak of Cold War tensions. The biggest step toward ending discrimination against gays and lesbians in the military would be the passive step of just not discriminating against them. Gay and lesbian soldiers are already serving. Gates could just decide that with as much on his plate as he has at the moment, he’ll make sure we stop persecuting them.

Climate Progress

NYT’s Matt Wald blows the “Alternative and Renewable Energy” story, quotes only industry sources, ignores efficiency and huge cost of inaction

[If readers have other good sources and citations for electricity costs, please put them in the comments.]

I have known the New York Times energy reporter, Matt Wald, for 15 years, and generally think he is pretty good. But he has published perhaps the most flawed, inaccurate, and indefensible article in his career.

Wald’s piece could also be a poster child for award-winning journalist Eric Pooley’s searing critique of the media’s coverage of climate economics (see How the press bungles its coverage of climate economics — “The media’s decision to play the stenographer role helped opponents of climate action stifle progress”).

And, amazingly, as we will see, a report by one of Wald’s two industry sources completely disagrees with the report by the other industry group Wald cites! In fact, new Concentrated solar thermal power Solar Baseload is already competitive with new gas-fired generation and likely to have better economics in 2015.

The first flaw is that Wald completely ignores the lowest cost electricity strategy — energy efficiency — even though the article’s headline is “Cost Works Against Alternative and Renewable Energy Sources in Time of Recession,” and a major point of the piece is that “Curbing carbon dioxide emissions — a central part of tackling climate change — will almost certainly raise electricity prices, experts say.”

Wald never tells the reader that until the economic collapse, traditional sources of power have been rising much faster in cost than alternatives (see “Power plants costs double since 2000 — Efficiency anyone?“). He also never mentions that efficiency, which costs two cents to four cents a kilowatt hour (not counting ancillary benefits, including no need for new transmission), is the only new source of power that is both pollution free and far cheaper than current electricity rates (see “Efficiency, Part 3: The only cheap power left“).

The media simply needs to start talking more about electricity bills, which encompassses, efficient use of energy, than electricity rates.

Second, just as Pooley specifically warns against, Wald only cites industry sources for cost — and, surprise, surprise, they have absurd and indefensible numbers. Indeed, the clearest evidence article of bias is the utterly insupportable cost estimate for nuclear power Wald cites from a Black & Veatch study, “a new nuclear reactor, 10.8 cents.

Matt, say it ain’t so. Let’s be clear here. That number is beyond unsupportable. There is not a utility or nuclear power plant provider in the country who would guarantee 10.8 cents/kwh in a Public Utility Commission (PUC) hearing. You would have trouble finding one that would guarantee twice that rate in year one of operation.

Let’s remember that “Turkey’s only bidder for first nuclear plant offers a price of 21 cents per kilowatt-hour.” Moody’s — a far less biased source than Wald cites — puts new nuclear at over 15 c/kwh (see here). Earlier this year, Time wrote “new nuclear energy is on track to cost 15¢ to 20¢ per kilowatt-hour,” and I published a detailed cost study this year that put it at 25 to 30 c/kwh (see “Exclusive analysis, Part 1: The staggering cost of new nuclear power“).

Read more

Security

Obama On Afghanistan: I Will Not ‘Simply Assume That More Troops Always Result In An Improved Situation’

Since President Obama announced his new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan last week, he and his administration have been careful to distinguish it from President Bush’s surge in Iraq. Today on Fox News Sunday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates stressed that the focus of the mission in Afghanistan has been “narrowed”: “I think what we need to focus on…is making headway and reversing the Taliban’s momentum and strengthening the Afghan army and police, and really going after Al Qaeda.”

Today in an interview with CBS’s Bob Schieffer, Obama underscored this point. He pointed out that the reason he has increased troops in Afghanistan is because levels there are “greatly underresourced.” However, he is not going to “simply assume that more troops always result in an improved situation”:

OBAMA: What I will not do is to simply assume that more troops always result in an improved situation. [...]

But just because we needed to ramp up from the greatly underresourced levels that we had doesn’t automatically mean that, if this strategy doesn’t work, that what’s needed is even more troops.

There may be a point of diminishing returns in terms of troop levels. We’ve got to also make sure that our civilian efforts, our diplomatic efforts and our development efforts are just as robustly encouraged.

Obama added that it this strategy doesn’t work, the answer won’t necessarily be more troops. “It’s not going to be an open-ended commitment of infinite resources,” he said. Watch it:

The 17,000 additional U.S. troops will be focused on fighting the Taliban in the south and east, allowing the U.S. to “partner with Afghan security forces and to go after insurgents along the border.” Later this spring, Obama will also be sending another 4,000 U.S. troops to help train Afghan security forces.

While the increase in U.S. forces has received the majority of media attention, Obama’s Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy is actually a “comprehensive civil-political effort to improve basic services, accountability, and overall governance in order to defeat the hard-core Taliban and al Qaeda fighters at the heart of the insurgency,” as CAP’s Peter Juul has written. The President has also ordered an increase in humanitarian aid and civilian support, recognizing that the effort there cannot be won solely by military means.

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

The New Af-Pak and War Powers

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Probably the singular strategic step of the Obama administration’s Afghanistan war policy review has been a redefinition of the war away from a “war in Afghanistan” to a war in a place known as “Af-Pak.” And as Noah Schachtman observes here and here part of what that’s meant is an expansion of the target set inside Pakistan away from a narrow focus on al-Qaeda to a broader focus on insurgents aiming at toppling the Pakistani government:

Obama also made it clear that the military won’t just go after the militants sowing mayhem in Afghanistan, but the ones undermining Pakistan’s government, too. Specifically, Obama all-but-called-out Pakistani militant leader Baitullah Mehsud, the leading suspect in the assassination of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the September 2007 bombings in Rawalpindi, which killed 25. In recent weeks, American drones have hit his network, over and over again.

This leads Judah Grunsetin to wonder who authorized this? He observes that the Afghanistan AUMF is broadly worded to target al-Qaeda wherever they may be, but this seems to be a larger shift in targets:

Question: Is anyone going to call President Barack Obama on this?

Given the broad expansion of presidential war powers over the decades, I think we can safely say that the answer is “no.” After all, Obama’s strategy seems to be broadly supported by congress. If there were large levels of congressional opposition to his approach you might see efforts to limit the scope of his authority, but there is no such opposition at the moment so he’ll be able to do as he sees fit.

Yglesias

Our Enemy, Argentina?

New Republic editor-in-chief Martin Peretz gives his views on Afghanistan:

But our allies have not much cottoned to the Afghan conflict. This poses a problem for the president. If he cannot influence our most trustworthy allies like Germany in this matter (or on economic stimulus in the “other” matter), he will be left not re-engaging our friends but pleading with our antagonists: Iran, Syria, Argentina, etc.

Argentina? Is this related to the idea that “Latin society” suffers from “congenital corruption” and “near-tropical work habits?”

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