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Yglesias

Climate Change and Animal Disease

cloverma-1

More cheery news on the climate change front:

Climate change is widening viral disease among farm animals, expanding the spread of some microbes that are also a known risk to humans, the world’s top agency for animal health said on Monday.

The World Animal Health Organization—known as OIE, an acronym of its name in French—said a survey of 126 of its member-states found 71 percent were “extremely concerned” about the expected impact of climate change on animal disease.

Meanwhile, the idea of getting sixty votes in the United States Senate for something as ambitious as the Waxman-Markey bill—to say nothing of something that would be fully equal to the scale of the challenge—continues to seem fairly implausible. Vacation is fun, but reality is depressing.

Yglesias

The Foreclosure-Unemployment Feedback Loop

The foreclosure crisis started with loans to people who didn’t make enough money to pay them back; loans that were issued on the premise that if the owner ever got into trouble he could always sell the house. That started unraveling when the housing bubble started unraveling. But now that unemployment is rising more and more “prime” loans are going bust:

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The issue here is that even the best credit rating in the world is little protection against the fact that if you’re laid off during a recession your income may drop a huge amount. Foreclosures, in turn, help make the economic situation worse and drive up the unemployment rate.

Yglesias

From Campaign Staff to Candidacy

A Washington Post article on former campaign staffers deciding to run for office mentions some folks I know:

But there’s also Mike Signer, 36, who was an adviser to former senator John Edwards and then Obama during the campaign and is aiming to become Virginia’s next lieutenant governor. [...]

Legum founded the ThinkProgress blog at the Center for American Progress before joining Clinton’s campaign. After Clinton lost the nomination, he said, he took a break from the hyperactive pace of Washington politics. But the wonk in him quickly took over, and he immersed himself in local issues. He started a Maryland politics blog, Legum’s New Line, and announced his candidacy more than a year out.

The long hours and intense pressure of campaigning nationally “made me want to at least try another kind of politics,” Legum said. “There is something valuable about being in the political process at this level. It’s not sexy, but it’s important. That’s part of what persuaded me to get involved.”

Both good guys, though of course there’ll be no electioneering or endorsements on this blog. I will, however, endorse the point Legum is making. The American political system assigns an enormous amount of power to state and local political officeholders. But politics at the state and local level doesn’t get much attention. Even pretty politically active people commonly can’t name their state senator or say anything about him or her.

Politics

Liz Cheney considering run for public office?

The Washington Monthly’s Steve Benen has been keeping a close watch on Liz Cheney, noting that the ubiquitous daughter of the former vice president “practically lives on cable news” these days. “She also lies routinely, accuses the president of helping terrorists, and is so mindless in her attacks on the nation’s elected leadership, she’s something of a national embarrassment,” Benen writes. And according to close friends of hers, she may be the next Cheney to run for office:

“She’s awesome. Everyone wants her to run,” said a close friend. [...]

“She’s a chip off the block!” said a longtime friend. [...]

“It’s a two-fer. She comes off a bit better than he does sometimes,” a conservative consultant said.

Asked about the possibility that Liz Cheney might make a run for office, Republican operative Karl Rove responded, “She might!” Watch it:

Yglesias

Unconventional Wisdom on Iran

Fareed Zakaria points out that much of what “everyone knows” about Iran may be wrong:

Everything you know about Iran is wrong, or at least more complicated than you think. Take the bomb. The regime wants to be a nuclear power but could well be happy with a peaceful civilian program (which could make the challenge it poses more complex). What’s the evidence? Well, over the last five years, senior Iranian officials at every level have repeatedly asserted that they do not intend to build nuclear weapons. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has quoted the regime’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who asserted that such weapons were “un-Islamic.” The country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a fatwa in 2004 describing the use of nuclear weapons as immoral. In a subsequent sermon, he declared that “developing, producing or stockpiling nuclear weapons is forbidden under Islam.” Last year Khamenei reiterated all these points after meeting with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei. Now, of course, they could all be lying. But it seems odd for a regime that derives its legitimacy from its fidelity to Islam to declare constantly that these weapons are un-Islamic if it intends to develop them. It would be far shrewder to stop reminding people of Khomeini’s statements and stop issuing new fatwas against nukes.

Following a civilian nuclear strategy has big benefits. The country would remain within international law, simply asserting its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a position that has much support across the world. That would make comprehensive sanctions against Iran impossible. And if Tehran’s aim is to expand its regional influence, it doesn’t need a bomb to do so. Simply having a clear “breakout” capacity—the ability to weaponize within a few months—would allow it to operate with much greater latitude and impunity in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Of course it would be silly to be naive and just base our policy on the assumption that the Iranians are telling the truth about all this. But by the same token, we should recognize that they might be telling the truth. Or, perhaps most realistically of all, that “they” may disagree about this.

Climate Progress

Why global warming means killer storms worse than Katrina and Gustav, Part 1

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 — though global warming will ultimately move that date up just as it is moving up the spring snowmelt.  Indeed, some evidence suggests the hurricane season has been getting longer for decades (see here and below).

As Jeff Master, our favorite meteorologist and hurricane blogger, noted in November, “This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months” (see “A new record for the hurricane season of 2008“).  Saturday, Masters explained that had “the large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida” this week “spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm” — that is, it would have been “the season’s first named storm.”  So I won’t wait until June 1 to revise and update some posts from last year on why global warming will lead to much worse killer storms.

Relative sizes of Typhoon Tip and Tropical Cyclone Tracy

Hurricanes can get much, much bigger and stronger than we have so far seen in the Atlantic. The most intense Pacific storm on record was Super Typhoon Tip in 1979, which reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph near the center. On its wide rim, gale-force winds (39 mph) extended over a diameter of an astonishing 1350 miles. It would have covered nearly half the continental United States.

“More than half the total hurricane damage in the U.S. (normalized for inflation and populations trends) was caused by just five events,” explained MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel in an email. Storms that are Category 4 and 5 at landfall (or just before) are what destroy major cities like New Orleans and Galveston with devastating winds, rains, and storm surges.

In Part 2, we’ll look a little more in detail at Katrina and Gustav, and why they weren’t as strong and hence as devastating at landfall as they could have been.  But let’s first ask — How did Katrina turn into a powerful Category 5 hurricane?

Read more

Yglesias

North Korean Nuclear Test

Everyone seems to agree that a North Korean nuclear test is a bad thing, but I’m a bit at a loss for smart things to say about it. Joe Cirincione says “North Korean nuclear test shows the failure of both US and China’s strategy to roll back the program.”

I guess it strikes me that the DPRK’s nose for grabbing attention seems a bit off if they’re deciding to do this over what’s a holiday weekend in the United States.

Security

Obama: ‘We Have Failed’ To Give Vets The ‘Support They Need Or Pay Them The Respect They Deserve’

obamaOn this Memorial Day, the nation celebrates the sacrifice of veterans who gave their lives in service to our country. A “by-the-numbers” analysis by the Center for American Progress notes that veterans “are still in need of services to improve their quality of life—before, during, and after deployments. This year, the need is even more urgent than ever as the economic crisis hits many veterans and their families hard and these Americans struggle to find jobs, pay their mortgages, and get back on their feet.” Some key stats:

– 338,000 or almost one in five Iraq and Afghanistan veterans are experiencing symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, or PTSD, or major depression as of January 2009.

– Yet only 53 percent suffering from PTSD or major depression have seen a physician or mental health provider.

154,000 veterans were homeless on any given night in 2007, and 300,000 were homeless at some point during that year.

One-third of homeless Americans are veterans, even though only one-tenth of all adults are veterans.

– Foreclosure rates in military towns were increasing at four times the national average in last year.

In his weekly address, President Obama said, “Our fighting men and women – and the military families who love them – embody what is best in America. And we have a responsibility to serve all of them as well as they serve all of us. And yet, all too often in recent years and decades, we, as a nation, have failed to live up to that responsibility. We have failed to give them the support they need or pay them the respect they deserve.”

“That is a betrayal of the sacred trust that America has with all who wear – and all who have worn – the proud uniform of our country,” Obama added. “And that is a sacred trust I am committed to keeping as President of the United States.” Watch it:

Politics

Ex-Taliban official describes torture at Bagram: ‘They were beating me…until I was unconscious.’

In an interview with CNN, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef — a close ally of Taliban leader Mullah Omar and Afghanistan’s former ambassador to Pakistan — described his detention experiences at Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base and at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Zaeef has since been freed and claims he is no longer a member of the Taliban. “He says he is still bitter about his time there. Closing Guantanamo Bay, he told CNN, is only part of the justice those detained there deserve”:

“It was a bad stain on American history,” he said. “If they are closing Guantanamo for justice, they have to bring the people who are torturing people, who abuse people, to justice.” [...]

“I didn’t see a worse situation in my life than Bagram,” recalled Zaeef. “They were beating me, they put me in the snow, in the cold, until I was unconscious.”

Watch it:

Politics

Washington Post profiles TP founder Judd Legum’s campaign for Maryland state legislature.

An article in today’s Washington Post highlights former presidential campaign staffers who are now launching their own bids for public office, including ThinkProgress founder Judd Legum:

juddJudd Legum, 30, a blogger-turned-opposition-researcher, has announced that he will run for the House of Delegates representing his native Annapolis area. [...]

Legum founded the ThinkProgress blog at the Center for American Progress before joining Clinton’s campaign. After Clinton lost the nomination, he said, he took a break from the hyperactive pace of Washington politics. But the wonk in him quickly took over, and he immersed himself in local issues. He started a Maryland politics blog, Legum’s New Line, and announced his candidacy more than a year out.

The long hours and intense pressure of campaigning nationally “made me want to at least try another kind of politics,” Legum said. “There is something valuable about being in the political process at this level. It’s not sexy, but it’s important. That’s part of what persuaded me to get involved.”

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