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Politics

New Budget Estimate Of Public Plan Proves It Lowers Cost And Covers More Americans

A couple of weeks ago, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a preliminary score of the health care legislation under consideration in the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee. The bill was estimated to cost $1 trillion over 10 years, while reducing the number of uninsured by “only” one-third. As many informed bloggers noted at the time, the cost estimate was incomplete because the legislation that the CBO reviewed did not contain language about a public health insurance plan or an employer mandate.

Nevertheless, Republicans seized on the opportunity to engage in merciless political attacks, citing the incomplete CBO score as proof that health care reform is not worth doing:

John McCain: “[The CBO estimate] should be a wake up call for all of us to scrap the current bill and start over in a true bipartisan fashion.”

John Boehner: “[T]he public option would cost over $1 trillion, and would cause 23 million Americans to lose their private health care coverage.

Lindsey Graham: “The CBO estimates were a death blow to a government run health care plan.”

The HELP Committee has since added language for a public plan option to its legislation, as well as an employer mandate provision. The AP reports the new results:

The plan carries a 10-year price tag of slightly over $600 billion, and would lead toward an estimated 97 percent of all Americans having coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office, Sens. Edward M. Kennedy and Chris Dodd said in a letter to other members of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. [...]

The [employer mandate] provision is also estimated to greatly reduce the number of workers whose employers would drop coverage, thus addressing a major concern noted by CBO when it reviewed the earlier proposals.

In other words, the addition of the public plan dramatically reduced the overall cost of the bill and ensured coverage of almost all Americans. So what excuses will McCain, Boehner, Graham, and other Republicans offer now? Their attacks were not only found to be baseless, but their concerns about the costs and coverage have also been addressed.

Update

The incoming president of the American Medical Association, Dr. J. James Rohack, said his organization now supports a public plan, after initially indicating its opposition. The AMA supports an “American model” that includes both “a private system and a public system, working together,” he said.


Update

,Read about the new CBO analysis here. Jonathan Cohn explains why the final cost of the bill will likely be somewhere between $1-1.3 trillion.


Update

Justice

The Supreme Court Term In Review, Part II: Criminal Justice

arrest(The following is the second in a multi-part series on the Supreme Court’s recently-concluded 2008-2009 Term)

This Term featured a handful of contentious criminal cases which showcased both the justices’ unwillingness to recognize the challenges presented by new technologies, and their complete willingness to disregard longstanding precedents.  Moveover, taken together, these cases may foreshadow a sweeping assault on the rights of the accused.

  • Turning Their Backs On The Twenty-First Century

As the Wonk Room recently reported, the Court’s 5-4 decision in District Attorney v. Osborne held that a potentially innocent man has no right to access DNA evidence that could exonerate him of a 1993 rape and kidnapping, even though he offered to pay for DNA testing himself–so it will cost the state literally nothing to let him do so.  According to Chief Justice Roberts’ opinion, the government can’t even be required to take cost-free measures to ensure that innocent people go free.

In Herring v. United States, another 5-to-4 decision, Roberts similarly disregarded the risks presented by poorly-maintained databases tracking arrest warrants and similar information. Since its 1961 decision in Mapp v. Ohio, the Court has understood that the Constitution’s safeguards against illegal searches and seizures mean nothing unless police suffer a consequence for their unlawful actions. Recognizing that virtually no jury would sanction a cop who unconstitutionally uncovers evidence of a crime, the Court endorsed the “exclusionary rule,” which requires illegally obtained evidence to be excluded from criminal trials. Herring, however, creates a new exception to this rule; when a police database falsely indicates that a person is the subject of an arrest warrant, the exclusionary rule does not apply to any evidence gained from an unconstitutional arrest of that person.

As Justice Ginsburg explains in dissent, failure to accurately maintain such databases could lead to countless innocent Americans being falsely arrested or detained. “Police today can access databases that include not only the updated National Crime Information Center (NCIC), but also terrorist watchlists, the Federal Government’s employee eligibility system, and various commercial databases.” In one of the most absurd recent examples of what can happen when those databases are poorly maintained, Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA) was once detained in an airport because his name appeared on an anti-terrorist “no-fly” list.

  • Disregard for Precedent

The Court’s dismissive attitude towards the exclusionary rule is particularly disturbing in light of two decisions overruling precedents governing the rights of the accused. An unusually pro-defendant decision in Arizona v. Gant significantly rolled back a 28 year-old decision which held that police may always search the passenger component of a vehicle when they constitutionally arrest the vehicle’s occupant. And in Montejo v. Louisiana, the Court expressly overruled a 23 year-old precedent holding that police cannot initiate interrogation of a defendant after the defendant requests counsel at arraignment.

Viewed in light of the Court’s apparent willingness to abandon precedent, the new limitation on the exclusionary rule in Herring may portend significant future incursions on that rule. During Justice Samuel Alito’s first term on the Supreme Court, he cast the key fifth vote in favor of an opinion which ominously claimed that the exclusionary rule “has always been our last resort, not our first impulse.”  Herring is now the second case in four years to place substantial new limits on the exclusionary rule. Although it remains to be seen whether this pattern is merely a coincidence, these two cases could be the beginning of a much larger assault on the exclusionary rule. If they are, the most potent means of ensuring that police comply with the Constitution could cease to exist.

Economy

Is Treasury Favoring Banks By Undervaluing TARP Warrants?

ap090520012627Earlier this month, the Treasury Department allowed ten of the nation’s largest banks to repay their TARP funds, bringing up the question of what to do with the warrants that the government received in exchange for TARP money. According to an analysis by University of Louisiana professor Linus Wilson, the plan that Treasury announced last Friday to sell those ten banks their warrants — which are options to buy stock sometime in the future — will shortchange taxpayers by a cool half billion:

The anticipated value of warrants for 10 of the largest banks that repaid their Troubled Asset Relief Plan funds is $3.3 billion using the Treasury’s valuation process, compared with $3.82 billion with a more conventional method, Linus Wilson, a finance professor in Lafayette, Louisiana, said in an interview. Investors are debating whether taxpayers will be fairly compensated for the risk they took by providing rescue funds for the banking industry.

Treasury’s approach to offloading the warrants is to have each individual bank suggest a price for its warrants. Treasury can accept the bank’s offer, or reject it and propose its own price. If the bank then rejects Treasury’s proposal, three arbitrators decide the final price “based on an average of the appraisers.”

But since Treasury is using a lowball determination of the warrants’ value, and the banks “have a solid incentive to bid extremely low,” it’s almost certain that the average will favor the banks, at taxpayer expense. At DealBook, Steve Davidoff made some suggestions for how Treasury can fix this:

First, make the banks’ initial repurchase offer public. They should be subject to public inspection — and shaming — if they try and take advantage of the government. Second, the government should toll the strict time limitations on the proceedings to allow time for it to respond adequately. Finally, to avoid this issue altogether the government should sell as many of the warrants it can now on the open market, before a repurchase request is submitted.

Davidoff’s first point about transparency is important. This is a transaction with taxpayers that we are talking about here, not a private business deal. The more we know about how the banks are conducting themselves in this regard, the better. Hopefully, transparent offers will also keep Treasury honest, as the public will know if Treasury accepts too low a price.

In the end, I think Simon Johnson is correct in that “the only sensible way to dispose of these options is for Treasury to set a floor price, and then hold an auction that permits anyone to buy any part – e.g., people could submit sealed bids and the highest price wins.” (Felix Salmon suggested then giving the banks “the right to match the winning price, if they’re so inclined.”) This approach would both produce a fairer result and ensure that the banks don’t get one final shot in at taxpayers as they wriggle free from TARP.

Yglesias

Endgame

Congressional recess = boring week for bloggers:

— Kate Klonick advances the story of conservative infighting over Sarah Palin.

— Why does Infinite Jest feature all this incorrect French?

— Fairfax County considers becoming a city.

— CakeLove should stop being stupid.

— The economic history of the world in one chart.

Song of the day—I’m not a big hip-hop guy normally, but I’m totally digging Major Lazer. Here’s “Hold the Line”.

Security

NumbersUSA Ties ‘Quality Of Life’ Population Maps To Immigration

mapThe notoriously anti-immigrant group, NumbersUSA, has released a series of “quality of life” maps today that supposedly document the country’s “population explosion,” which they predictably claim is “fueled by immigration.” The maps consist of multi-colored illustrations of the nation’s population growth, income levels, and fertility rates broken down by state, county, and metro area.

Aside from failing to reference their data source, NumbersUSA’s claim that their map somehow reflects the negative“effects” of U.S. immigration policy is based entirely on inference. The map itself doesn’t convey anything about immigration levels to support NumberUSA’s vague assumption that areas with high population growth have also experienced high levels of immigration, or that any of those factors have had a direct impact on the “quality of life” of certain regions. Another map, which is meant to illustrate the percentage of “foreign-born,” contains only a few splashes of color, the majority green (less than 2%).

Census Bureau figures which were also released today show the fastest-growing U.S. city to be New Orleans — which, according to NumbersUSA data, has a foreign-born population of only 2-5%. Most people are attributing changes in population trends as evidenced by the Census Bureau’s findings to the U.S. real estate crash and the global economic recession which is driving people out of the suburbs and into the nation’s historical population centers. According to William Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer, “The housing bubble caused a migration bubble and it has burst.” In fact, the international economic slowdown has decreased migration levels worldwide, meaning that fewer immigrants are coming to the U.S. in the first place.

Frank Sharry, Executive Director of the immigrant advocacy organization, America’s Voice, described NumbersUSA leader Roy Beck as someone who:

“…takes people who are upset about illegal immigration for different reasons, including hostility to Latino immigrants, and disciplines them so their message is based on policy rather than race-based arguments or xenophobia.”

NumbersUSA has blamed immigrants for everything from urban sprawl to air pollution and traffic jams. Dr. Walter Ewing of the Immigration Policy Center (IPC) describes NumberUSA’s newest project as “a map telling white people where to go to avoid dark people.”

Politics

Rove twitters: Obama officials are ‘ingrates.’

Earlier today, former Bush White House adviser Karl Rove expressed his irrational irritation with the Obama White House on his Twitter page, writing the “Ingrates speak,” before linking to a post by Commentary Magazine’s Jennifer Rubin:

rovetwitter

The post Rove linked to asks whether White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs gives “credit to President Bush for the foresight and determination to see the surge through and deliver the results we saw this week.” The answer was “no.” Rubin then went on to lament the White House’s inability to “celebrate America’s accomplishments.”

Yglesias

Committee Reform

1928_grant_wood_american_gothic-wr400-1

Ezra Klein says we should get rid of the Agriculture Commitees in the House and Senate. Which we probably should. But it really is worth emphasizing that the committee structure as a whole leaves a lot to be desired. The standing committees work well enough for the basic oversight functions, but as a way of getting legislation written it’s mostly a means of introducing additional veto points and giving special interests disproportionate influence over the process. The case for the committees is that having a group of members who specialize in a given issue could produce better legislation. The fact of the matter, however, is that while congress acting as a check on the executive is important in our system, it’s generally not all that desirable for congress to be actively shaping the details of public policy. The Obama administration has sound tactical reasons for leaving the details of energy and health policy up to congress, but you don’t actually get superior policy this way—among other things, congressional staff don’t have the same level of technical expertise available to the administration.

Traditionally, progressives have understood themselves to have an interest in strengthening the hand of the congressional leadership relative to senior committee members. I think my practical suggestion would be that for major legislative priorities it would make sense to have the leadership appoint special ad hoc select committees, rather than having multiple drafts of a bill circulate (as we’re seeing in the Senate with health care) or have a given bill go through multiple committees (as we’re seeing in the House with climate change). The model would look a bit like the “tri-Committee” process the House is using for health care, but you’d try to keep the membership roster down to a normal size. The idea would be that if you were going to propose a major overhaul of, say, agriculture policy you wouldn’t just leave the henhouse in the hands of the foxes. Instead you’d appoint a special “let’s overhaul agriculture policy” committee with a view to selecting a membership likely to write a bill that’s both good and likely to pass. That would mean some representation for farm interests, of course, but also representation of other kinds of interests.

Climate Progress

Honey, I shrunk the GOP, Part 1: Conservatives vow to purge all members who support clean energy or science-based policy

Honey, I shrunk the GOP

Mary Bono Mack Should Be Burned in Effigy and Voted Out of Office

That’s the screaming headline at screaming right-wing blog Red State.  The article asserts, “she should now be targeted”:

… we beat her and her husband at the polls.

Yes, you heard me. We can get at Mary Bono Mack in two ways “” her district and that of her husband. He should feel the heat just as much as her.

“Feel the heat” for voting to support efforts to stop global warming — yes, irony can be so ironic. Greenwire via the NYT explains the source of the latest ideological purity test of the ever shrinking GOP, “Conservative Ire Rains on 8 Republicans Who Voted for House Climate Bill.”  For CP readers, these folks are heroes:

The eight Republicans are Mark Kirk of Illinois; Mike Castle of Delaware; Mary Bono Mack of California; Dave Reichert of Washington; John McHugh of New York; and Frank LoBiondo, Leonard Lance and Chris Smith of New Jersey.

But not to the defacto leader of the GOP, Rush Limbaugh:

“This is an outrage. This is something that everybody who voted for this thing needs to be sent packing….”

I always thought “small is beautiful,” was a motto of the environmental movement but apparently it’s the new motto of the Republican Party, along with Gingrich’s “I am not a citizen of the world!” and, of course, “Drill baby, drill.”

And then we have top conservative blogger Michele Maglalang aka Michele Malkin, once called by a newspaper “an Asian Ann Coulter,” to which she responded “I’m not Asian, I’m American, for goodness’ sake. I would take the comparison to Ann Coulter as somewhat of a compliment.”  She put this poster on her website:

Read more

Climate Progress

Swimming Upstream Against Public Opinion, NRCC Running Anti-Clean Energy Ads Laced With Misinformation

The NRCC, the Republican Party campaign committee tasked with electing more House Republicans, announced today that it will be running television and radio ads against Democratic members of Congress who voted for the Waxman-Markey clean energy economy legislation passed last week. The ads erroneously state that the bill will “destroy jobs” and “cost middle-class families $1,800 a year.”

Media Matters Action has noted that both of these claims are patently false. According to a study by the Center for American Progress, clean energy economy legislation will create 1.7 million American jobs while simultaneously addressing climate change by capping carbon dioxide emissions. The $1,800 figure used by NRCC is also made of whole cloth. The Congressional Budget Office has scored the bill and found that by 2020, the annual cost would be about $175 per household — about a postage stamp a day.

Not only does the NRCC stand in defiance of reality, it is going against the tide of public opinion. A new Pew poll found that a super majority of 78% of Americans want the U.S. to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide that cause global warming and 72% of Americans support the core principles underlying clean energy legislation. The same poll found that even 66% of Republicans want the U.S. to curb carbon emissions.

One of the targets of the NRCC ad campaign is freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). Perriello’s district already contains at least ten businesses in either the clean energy or energy efficiency industry. Not only would clean energy economy legislation realign market incentives to help these businesses expand, it will new spur investments and bring more jobs to the area. Virginia is projected to gain at least 45,000 jobs and a net increase of $3.9 billion in clean energy investments.

While NRCC strategists assume they can dupe Perriello’s constituents with fear mongering ads laced with lies, the right-wing base is harnessing the same NRCC misinformation to demonize Republicans who also voted for the bill. A recent post on the popular right-wing blog Red State calls upon readers to burn Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-CA), one of the 8 House Republicans to support clean energy legislation, in effigy. Organizers of the anti-Obama tea party protests are also coordinating a harassment strategy — in similar fashion to their treatment of Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) — against the 8 House Republicans.

As the NRCC suppresses the truth in a vain attempt to elect more Republicans, they could be fueling more defections from the party.

Politics

Gingrich On Private Health Insurance Companies: ‘They Have It Done Well’

newt-gingrich-webNewt Gingrich, one of the de facto leaders of the Republican Party, gave an interview to ABC Medical editor Dr. Timothy Johnson last week to discuss health care reform. Gingrich predictably went into scare-mongering mode, making arguments against measures that aren’t even part of the debate. He said the U.S. should not adopt a “single national health system” such as in Canada or the UK. “If I have to choose between my doctor and a government bureaucrat, I have zero doubt which one I want,” he said. Of course, no such choice is being offered.

But Gingrich also touted the success of private health insurers. When Johnson noted that it is insurance companies that are coming between patients and needed care, Gingrich claimed, “If you don’t like your current insurance company, you can change insurance companies.” He later argued that private insurers have done “well”:

GINGRICH: They have it done well. And the fact is, overall, 71 percent of Americans are relatively satisfied with the health insurance.

JOHNSON: But we have 46 million uninsured.

GINGRICH: Right. And we have — you know, that means you also have 260 million insured.

Perhaps Gingrich hasn’t been paying attention to how private insurance companies have been doing it. They continually deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions and drop coverage for many who have insurance (and have paid monthly premiums) when they become ill. In fact, just this month, the CEOs of the nation’s top three health insurers told a House committee that they would continue the practice of canceling medical coverage for sick policy holders, a controversial measure called “rescission.”

Moreover, many of those who have health insurance really aren’t “insured” from the financial burdens of rising health care costs. A national study released this year found that while medical debt contributed to 62 percent of the bankruptcies in 2007, 78 percent of those bankruptcy filers had health insurance but “still were overwhelmed by their medical debt.”

Perhaps because he hasn’t had to shop around for health insurance for quite a while, Gingrich doesn’t know that it’s not that easy to just “change insurance companies” if you’re unhappy with your current provider. Aside from the fact that insurer consolidation has resulted in limited choice and higher profits for insurers, those seeking insurance on the individual market face higher costs, as the Commonwealth Fund has noted:

Insurance in the individual market is often impossible to obtain or unaffordable. Nearly nine of 10 people who explored obtaining coverage through the individual market never bought a plan, citing difficulties finding affordable coverage or being turned down.

If private insurance companies have “done well” and a public plan is no option, how does Gingrich plan to reform health care?

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