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What Is The U.S. Role In Iraqi Arab-Kurd Peacemaking?

When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, it uncorked an unpredictable bottle of internal disputes and conflicts. But one of the easiest conflicts to predict was the long-running conflict between Iraq’s Arabs and Kurds for control of disputed territories in northern Iraq. This conflict was largely stabilized between the First Gulf War in 1991 and the invasion, when U.S. warplanes patrolled a no-fly zone to prevent Saddam Hussein from sending his army against the Kurds again.

With the removal of Saddam, the Kurds were eager to expand their control over territories from which they had been expelled in the course of the previous regime’s “Arabization” program. The status of these territories was addressed in the Iraqi constitution, whose Article 140 called for a referendum on the status of Kirkuk and other territories by the end of 2007. Thanks to a combination of Arab opposition and Iraqi government incapacity, this referendum did not occur. Despite the formation of a committee to create a power sharing formula for Tamim Province (where Kirkuk is located), little progress has been made on the issue.

Now, Kurdish leaders are reporting that relations with the central government in Baghdad have reached a nadir. Massoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have not spoken to each other directly for an entire year. This lack of communication is compounded by a series stand-offs between Kurdish forces and the Iraqi army, going back to the August 2008 confrontation in the Diyala province town of Khanaqin. Most recently, Kurdish and central government forces stood off on June 28 in the town of Makhmur, between the contested cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. In addition to territorial disputes, the KRG and the central government remain in conflict over hydrocarbons legislation and a new KRG constitution. Despite the hard work of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), the KRG and the Maliki government appear headed for conflict.

What this amounts to, as Brian Katulis, Marc Lynch, and I argued in our September 2008 report Iraq’s Political Transition After the Surge (pdf), is that the surge of U.S. forces that helped reduce violence did not fundamentally deliver on its central objective of political consolidation. Indeed, by strengthening the Iraqi government, it has probably exacerbated the Arab-Kurd dispute.

Tom Friedman yesterday advocated a sort of special envoy for Iraq a la Richard Holbrooke’s work in Bosnia. He’s six years too late –- and so is the United States. With Iraqi demands for sovereignty only growing, it will be difficult to get the Iraqi government to sign on to yet more U.S. intervention in its internal disputes. Indeed, Maliki told Vice President Joe Biden during his July 4 visit to Baghdad that “the reconciliation issue is a purely Iraqi issue and any non-Iraqi involvement might have a negative effect.”

The United States had ample time to resolve the Arab-Kurd dispute non-violently when it had far more power and leverage over Iraqi actors over the past six years. It squandered the opportunities it had, and is now faced with the potential of renewed conflict as it exits Iraq. Appointing an unwelcome special envoy to work in an undetermined relationship with the new U.S. ambassador is probably not the best way to use the influence we have left to help resolve Iraqi conflicts.

Yglesias

Student-Faculty Ratio

It seems that student-to-faculty ratios among undergraduate programs vary drastically from discipline to discipline. Political science and economics, in particular, are oversubscribed. Definitely one of the things I liked about being a philosophy major in college was that it was a relatively small department with a low student-faculty ratio. That preserved a nice island of intimacy around my coursework even amidst a fairly large and impersonal overall university.

Part of what you see with these ratios, I guess, is that colleges are relatively unresponsive to demand-side factors among students.

Yglesias

Health Reform in Massachusetts Gets More Fierce

sealclr

Massachusetts passed a major health care reform bill back when Mitt Romney was governor, that effectively created a universal health care system which was paired with some fairly hand-wavy promises of cost controls. The expanded coverage has worked great, but the cost controls haven’t. That said, with the state now explicitly on the hook for coverage, they’re not just responding to cost increases by letting things slowly unravel. Instead, an ambitious recommendation has been made to move away from fee-for-service medicine, which would be a truly revolutionary change if it happens.

Check out analysis from Alex MacGuiness and Ezra Klein. This could be the future.

Politics

DeMint’s discourse: Government is fascist, says he will ‘break’ Obama and cause the Senate ‘pain.’

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is ratcheting up his anti-Obama rhetoric. On a call with right-wing activists yesterday afternoon, he proudly proclaimed that he aims to “break” the President by defeating health reform. He also said recently that he prefers to cause “pain” to his fellow legislators rather than working on reform. And while promoting his new book on the G. Gordon Liddy show yesterday, DeMint agreed with Gordon — who ironically has a history of expressing sympathetic views to Nazis — that Obama has created a government like that under Hitler:

LIDDY: But there’s something else that I remember because I’m a lot older than you are and it’s called national socialism and that’s where the government allows private people to continue to own industrial capacity and what have you but tells them what they may — must do with it. You know, you will make Messerschmidts, etc. That was national socialism. That seems to me the way we’re going.

DEMINT: You’re right we’ve got national socialism, national paternalism and our form of socialism seems more benign than the classical form that we noted in Europe.

Listen here:

This isn’t the first time DeMint has used this incorrect analogy. As Matt Yglesias previously wrote, “Look, comparing your domestic political rivals to Nazis is a time-honored tradition. But confusing the Nazis and Germany’s Social Democrats is a scandal. The Social Democrats were the main source of opposition to Hitler at a time when the Communists were bizarrely maintaining that there was no difference between the two and the mainstream parties of the center-right decided that it made sense to form a tactical alliance with Hitler. Social Democrats stand for a generous welfare state and active labor market policies. Nazis try to conquer the world and send people to the gas chamber.”

Yglesias

The Logic of DeLong Care

My brief post from Thursday trying to explicate some of Brad DeLong’s synthesis of the best ideas in health care economics detached from political reality prompted some interesting discussion in comments. And I thought I might elaborate on the idea, because some people’s objections seemed to be grounded in misunderstanding.

For one thing, it’s crucial to recognize the role that the clinics are playing in this system. There’s considerable evidence that there’s a lot of waste in our health care system, and there’s also considerable evidence that making people bear the cost of care utilization directly is, in fact, effective at reducing that waste. But one obvious problem with that is that there’s also a lot of kinds of care on which we don’t want people to economize, especially when you consider that taxpayers generally are going to wind up picking up the tab for health problems that are catastrophic or that manifest themselves in old age. Hence the idea for a UK-style, taxpayer funded system of government-salaried medical professionals doing routine preventive care.

To figure out exactly what this would look like you would need, of course, to consult with doctors and public health experts. But the general idea is that you’d have a menu of services that we really think people ought to get, and those services would not only be made available for free, people would to some extent be nagged to get them. That’s your vaccinations, your demographically appropriate cancer screenings, your doctorly advice about healthy behavior, your basic dental hygiene, your regular checkups, etc. The idea is that for people who aren’t sick, this public health system dedicated to doing its best to ensure that you don’t become sick would be your main source of medical care.

Then note that the 15 percent health withholding is not a 15 percent tax. Most people will spend less than 15 percent of their income on health care in most years. If so, your money will be returned to you. Because there’s reason to believe that Americans save too little for retirement and also reason to believe that default rules matter a lot, the default rule would be for the money to be returned to your and placed in a retirement account. But if you need or want the money, you’d fill out form 1346-FGH or whatever and get the cash.

In addition, note that people’s cash income would be a lot higher in a universe without health insurance plans and Medicare taxes. That’s a hefty chunk of your compensation.

Last, this plan is a lot more progressive in its distributive implications than the flat tax rates involved imply. Consider two guys who both contract the same illness. It winds up requiring $20,000 in treatment. A person who only earns $30,000 a year is going to find himself paying $4,500 out of pocket whereas someone who makes $100,000 will pay $15,000 out of pocket. The taxpayers will cover his last $5,000 in expenses, but he’ll also be paying $5,000 in taxes. Conversely, the $30,000/year guy is getting $15,500 in government benefits and paying only $1,500 in taxes. In other words, the tax structure is pretty flat but the benefit structure is highly progressive so the net impact is very progressive.

There’d be nothing wrong with implementing a more progressive tax structure, but in practice progressive universal benefit systems (Social Security in the US, health care and pensions in Europe) are usually funded through flat (or, like FICA, even regressive) tax structures.

Climate Progress

The clean energy revolution will not be televised, Part 2: Kathleen Hall Jamieson lambastes MSM for under-reporting climate bill

http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/original/Michael_jackson_bad_cd_cover_1987_cdda.jpgThe death of Walter Cronkite has inspired me to do a follow-up to “The clean energy revolution will not be televised as big media beat it and even Farrah’s death gets bigger play.

I wonder how Cronkite would have covered the death of Michael Jackson.  Somehow I suspect he wouldn’t have waited until the end of the CBS Evening News to say, as Katie Couric did:

Michael Jackson’s sudden death and the mystery surrounding it captivated the world, or much of it, eclipsing other news. Jeff Glor now tells us some of the stories that happened in the last two weeks that are definitely worth noting.

That clip was actually used as an opening segment for an examination of the media’s coverage of Jackson’s death by PBS’s Newshour (video and transcript here).  This PBS story is noteworthy because of the remarks by Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg Public Policy Center.

Jamieson launched into an extended critique of the media’s non-coverage of the climate bill, which is all the more remarkable because it reveals that, unlike the overwhelming majority of media pundits, she follows the issue closely — no doubt because she recognizes its seminal importance to the American public:

Read more

Politics

Joe Scarborough Calls For Dismissal Of New Young Republican Chairman Audra Shay

audrashay_01Earlier this week, 38-year old Tennessee resident Audra Shay won an election to take over the Young Republicans National Federation. Shay’s candidacy had been supported by Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA).

Shay won the post despite the fact that she had come under heavy criticism for approving of a racist comment made by a friend on Facebook. When her friend Eric commented, “obama bin lauden is the new terrorist….muslim is on there side …..need to take this country back from all these mad coons…….and illegals,” Shay responded: “You tell em Eric! lol [laughing out loud].”

When asked about the controversy by Bill Maher last night on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said Shay needs to be “immediately” dismissed:

SCARBOROUGH: Yeah, LOL. I hope LOL stands for something other than what I’ve been taught that LOL stands for. I mean, that’s obviously something that the National Republican Party should step in on immediately and relieve her of her responsibilities. That’s inexcusable. [crowd applause] And that’s the sort of thing, if somebody writes it, she needs to be relieved at once.

The flap over the racist comments seemed to help Shay get elected. The Indianapolis Star reported that many young Republicans flocked to Shay’s side to defend her against what they viewed as “just political mudslinging.”

Shay offered this reasoning in her defense: “An individual posted two comments on my Facebook wall, the first comment arguing against big government, and the second filled with racially charged comments. … I responded supporting the individual’s first post. … I was not aware of the racial comments until sometime later, when a third individual brought it to my attention.”

Politics

TP’s Igor Volsky Debates Medicaid Opponent On MSNBC

This morning on MSNBC, Igor Volsky, the Wonk Room’s health care blogger and co-author of Howard Dean’s Prescription for Real Health Care Reform, defended President Obama’s health care proposal. When host Chris Jansing argued that the Congressional Budget Office is predicting that health care reform would “increase long-term costs facing the government,” Igor noted that the CBO released a statement last night stating that the House bill would be deficit-neutral.

Igor debated Robert Goldberg, the president of the industry-funded Center for Medicine in the Public Interest. Towards the end of the segment, Goldberg attacked Igor, saying, “I can’t believe I’m hearing a liberal think tank support systematically restricting minorities from access to quality care.” Igor noted that “no one is restricting minorities, Robert — what are you talking about?” Goldberg revealed that his real problem is that he hates Medicaid:

GOLDBERG: If you’re a Medicaid recipient, you are not allowed to take a voucher and go to a plan that you think is good for you. You are forced to stay into Medicaid. Do you think that’s right or wrong? Yes or no?

IGOR: I think Medicaid provides essential services for many Americans that the private market simply can’t provide, which is why we’re expanding Medicaid. … It’s not putting people into Medicaid against their will.

Igor also noted that the motive behind including a public health insurance option for all Americans is to ensure everyone is given access to a solid benefits plan regardless of their income or class. Watch it:

Yglesias

Iceland Takes New Steps Toward EU Membership

iceland_eu1-1

James Joyner writes about Iceland’s continued march to EU membership. This is brought about in part because the financial meltdown has made EU membership look better on the merits, in part because the financial meltdown has brought left-wing parties to power, and in part because the financial meltdown has just changed public opinion. Still, mass opinion is rarely all that Europhilic and there remains some chance that the public will reject accession in a referendum. EU leaders, meanwhile, seem to be welcoming the idea of expansion to a tiny rich country after so many contentious fights about the accession of medium-sized medium-income Eastern European countries.

The EU has a ton of problems, running the gamut from a nutty decision-making structure to the fact that voters seem to hate it. But when you step back and think about it, it’s really an enormous human achievement relative to where things were 60 or 70 years ago or to what anyone would have thought possible back then. And for all its problems, the EU keeps moving by fits and starts to become both broader and deeper and I see no real reason to think either trend will actually reverse. Most likely, some of the problems will get resolved and that, combined with generational turnover, will build a more EU-friendly public in the future.

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