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Yglesias

Concern Over Robot Threat Hits NYT

Readers keep sending me the link to this New York Times article about researchers’ growing concerns about artificial intelligence. For example:

“My sense was that sooner or later we would have to make some sort of statement or assessment, given the rising voice of the technorati and people very concerned about the rise of intelligent machines,” Dr. Horvitz said.

The A.A.A.I. report will try to assess the possibility of “the loss of human control of computer-based intelligences.” It will also grapple, Dr. Horvitz said, with socioeconomic, legal and ethical issues, as well as probable changes in human-computer relationships. How would it be, for example, to relate to a machine that is as intelligent as your spouse?

Interestingly, however, the specific risk that robots will rebel and enslave us doesn’t seem to be under consideration. On a loosely related sci-fi note, Roland Emmerich directing a Foundation movie doesn’t seem like an even remotely good idea.

Media

Barack Obama is Not Personally Responsible for Broad, Structural Shifts in Congressional Polarization

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Adam Nagourney frets that Barack Obama isn’t well-loved enough by congressional Republicans:

Even if he goes the bipartisan route and succeeds, the end result could be comparatively modest: Perhaps fewer than 10 Senate Republicans, and perhaps not even that many in the House, party officials said. Social Security, by contrast, passed in 1935 with the support of 16 of the 25 Republican senators and 81 of the 102 Republican representatives. [...] No less important, a partisan vote could also undercut the political legitimacy of the effort itself. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid were all passed with significant support from both parties, which is one of the reasons those programs have become such an accepted part of the country’s political landscape.

Taking the second issue first, no matter how many times pundits make this assertion about stability there’s still no evidence for it. That’s something folks should consider wrestling with. Second, Social Security is “such an accepted part of the country’s political landscape” that the President of the United States proposed dismantling it in 2005. So I dunno about this.

On the first, the issue is that we’ve seen a massive structural shift in the interplay of partisanship, ideology, and congressional polarization. Bipartisan coalitions, both for and against legislation, used to happen regularly because partisanship wasn’t well-aligned with ideology. Most Democrats were to the left of most Republicans, but many Democrats were to the right of many Republicans. American politics doesn’t work that way anymore and it’s mostly a good thing. But it doesn’t make sense to hold presidents from the Polarized Era to standards set decades ago.

Climate Progress

Turns out humans are not like slowly boiling frogs … we are like slowly boiling brainless frogs

http://www.pinnacleoptima.com/blog/image.axd?picture=2009%2F5%2FBlog%25202%2520Boiling_Frog%5B1%5D.jpgI learned something new or, rather, old from reading Fallows’ blog.  The famous metaphor* — “the fatally slow human response to climate change makes us like a slowly boiling frog” — is not quite right.  As Wikipedia puts it, German physiologist Friedrich Goltz “demonstrated that frogs will indeed remain in slowly heated water, but only if their brain is removed.”

James Fallows, who may hold the world record for boiling frog posts, has one from Michael Jones who cites “Sensation in the Spinal Cord” from Nature, Dec. 4, 1873:

“Goltz observed that a frog, when placed in water the temperature of which is slowly raised towards boiling, manifests uneasiness as soon as the temperature reaches 25° C., and becomes more and more agitated as the heat increases, vainly struggling to get out, and finally at 42° C., dies in a state of rigid tetanus. The evidence of feeling being thus manifested when the frog has its brain, what is the case with a brainless frog? It is absolutely the reverse. Quietly the animal sits through all successions of temperature, never once manifesting uneasiness or pain, never once attempting to escape the impending death.”

Even so, I am inclined to agree with Jones that this should not be fatal to the metaphor.  It just needs to be tweaked.

Read more

Yglesias

The Health Care Reform the People Don’t Want

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David Leonhardt has another in a growing series of great David Leonhardt pieces on the nutty and dysfunctional nature of “fee-for-service” medicine in which doctors are paid for doing stuff rather than for treating illness. The problem, however, is that to totally change how medical professionals get paid would be a big disruptive change, and I see no sign that the public really wants such a change. As Leonhardt says:

More than three in four Americans are “very satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their own care, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. But a substantial majority also say that the health care system needs fundamental change and that rising costs are a serious threat to the economy — a view that economists strongly share.

Thus the political challenge facing any effort at an overhaul: Americans say they want change, but they also want to preserve their own status quo.

I just don’t really know what one is supposed to do in the face of public opinion data like that. Opting for the Barack Obama approach where you focus on reassuring people that the status quo won’t change too much seems like a smart play, even though the case for changing things a great deal is very strong.

Yglesias

IMAC and the CBO

I think there’s no denying that the Obama administration is in some ways disappointed with what the CBO had to say yesterday about their proposal to create a beefed-up MedPAC called IMAC. As Peter Orszag explained at the end of his blog post on it, they wound up taking on a speculative long-term issue and attaching a very precise cost estimate to it without any clear reasoning:

A final note is worth underscoring. As a former CBO director, I can attest that CBO is sometimes accused of a bias toward exaggerating costs and underestimating savings. Unfortunately, parts of today’s analysis from CBO could feed that perception. For example, and without specifying precisely how the various modifications would work, CBO somehow concluded that the council could “eventually achieve annual savings equal to several percent of Medicare spending…[which] would amount to tens of billions of dollars per year after 2019.” Such savings are welcome (and rare!), but it is also the case that (for good reason) CBO has restricted itself to qualitative, not quantitative, analyses of long-term effects from legislative proposals. In providing a quantitative estimate of long-term effects without any analytical basis for doing so, CBO seems to have overstepped.

That said, it’s worth being clear that we’re dealing with two separate issues here. Barack Obama has laid out two different cost constraints on health care reform. One is that reform must be CBO-certified as deficit neutral within the 10-year scoring window. That means what however much new coverage costs will be balanced out, within the 10-year window, by either offsetting spending reductions or else new revenue. The other is that the bill must “bend the cost curve” over the long run, meaning it must slow the rate of growth in long-run health care expenditures.

These are totally different things. And the point of IMAC is to meet the second goal, not the first. And the CBO score speaks to the first goal, not the second. Both goals are important, but to learn that a particular proposal aimed at issue two doesn’t solve issue one doesn’t actually tell us much of anything.

Justice

The Biggest Supreme Court Case You’ve Never Heard Of

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The judiciary has long been the go-to branch for corporations who don’t think they should have to follow the same laws as everyone else.  How else could health insurers achieve near total immunity from the law?  How else could employers strip women of their abilty to fight back against pay discrimination, and how else could the corporate sector create a biased system of corporate-owned courts that are virtually guarenteed to rule against consumers and employees?  No lawmaker could expect to remain in office if they endorsed such policies, but the Supreme Court, apparently, is shameless.

One big reason that the Court can give corporations such massive giveaways is because their work is buried in complex doctrines and legalese.  Voters would rebel against a bill which gave medical device makers total immunity from the law when their defective products kill someone, but when Justice Scalia writes that “the pre-emption clause enacted in the Medical Device Amendments of 1976, bars common-law claims challenging the safety and effectiveness of a medical device given premarket approval by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA),” most Americans don’t realize that he’s given the medical device immunity exactly the same immunity.

The mother of all the Supreme Court’s corporate-immunity-through-obfuscation cases may be this year’s decision in Ashcroft v. Iqbal.  Traditionally, the justices were very reluctant to kick people out of Court before they have the opportunity to at least gather evidence. Thanks to Iqbal, however, plaintiffs now must jump through a new, potentially insurmountable hoop before they can even seek evidence from their opponent.  As the New York Times explains:

For more than half a century, it has been clear that all a plaintiff had to do to start a lawsuit was to file what the rules call “a short and plain statement of the claim” in a document called a complaint. Having filed such a bare-bones complaint, plaintiffs were entitled to force defendants to open their files and submit to questioning under oath. . . .

The Iqbal decision now requires plaintiffs to come forward with concrete facts at the outset, and it instructs lower court judges to dismiss lawsuits that strike them as implausible.

“Determining whether a complaint states a plausible claim for relief,” Justice Anthony M. Kennedy wrote for the five-justice majority, “requires the reviewing court to draw on its judicial experience and common sense.”

Note those words: Plausible. Common sense.

Our readers who spent the Sotomayor hearings listening to progressives and conservatives alike claim that a judge’s duty is simply to follow the law will immediately see the problem with Kennedy’s standard; what on earth is “the law” when judges are told simply to obey their “common sense?”

The practical impact of Iqbal is that judges now have sweeping discretion to get rid of lawsuits simply because they don’t like them.  Moreover, because the federal bench dominated by conservatives–including George W. Bush’s judges, “the most conservative on record“–the rule in Iqbal grants conservatives even more authority than they already possess to substitute their personnal views for the merits of a plaintiff’s case.

To his credit, Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) has introduced a bill which would overturn Iqbal and restore the old rule.  Until such a bill passes, however, powerful interest groups won’t have to argue the law to keep plaintiffs out of court; they’ll simply need to appeal to our right-wing judiciary’s sense of “common sense.”

Media

CNN’s Howard Kurtz Criticizes CNN’s Lou Dobbs For Giving Airtime To ‘Birther’ Conspiracies

Last week, ThinkProgress noted that CNN’s Lou Dobbs is one of the most high-profile “birthers” in America, continuing to demand that Obama present a “long form” birth certificate to prove his citizenship. Dobbs’ focus on the story has been so bad that CNN President Jon Klein eventually sent an e-mail to staffers of “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” declaring that the “birther” story is “dead,” though he later backed down a bit. Dobbs has responded to his critics by calling them “limp-minded, lily-livered lefties” who don’t like that he had “the temerity to inquire as to where the birth certificate was.”

On his Reliable Sources show today, CNN’s Howard Kurtz criticized Dobbs and others in the media who have given airtime to the “fringe of the fringe” that is the “birther” crowd. “These are ludicrous claims, there is no factual basis for them,” said Kurtz. “Why give the birthers any airtime?” He then specifically criticized Dobbs for not acting “responsible”:

KURTZ: Callie Crossley, Lou Dobbs on his radio show said, “I believe the president is a citizen of the United States.” But he keeps raising these questions, complaining about criticism from “limp-minded, lily-livered lefties.” Is it responsible for Dobbs and others to go on the air, talk about these claims, demand proof, when we have seen a copy of the birth certificate? When Hawaii officials say that Barack Obama was born there in 1961?

CROSSLEY: It absolutely is not responsible.

Watch it:

As one of the top media critics in the country, Kurtz has been criticized for not commenting on Dobbs’ birther obsession in his Washington Post column. As has been noted by many, the birther claims that President Obama wasn’t born in America are groundless.

Yglesias

Socialism, Capitalism, and the Banality of Health Care

Friday after work I was biking home when I unexpectedly hit what I guess was a pothole and wound up flipping over the handlebars of my bike. The bars hit my chest on the way over, meaning that when I wound up on the ground the wind was totally knocked out of me giving the appearance that I might have had a serious concussion or something even though in fact I didn’t hit my head at all. At any rate, two nice women saw the thing go down and, concerned, called and got a paramedic sent to the scene. There really wasn’t much of anything to be done, but he nicely verified that my left hand wasn’t broken, helped wrap my wrists, may or may not have saved the fingernail on my left middle finger, etc. Not bad for socialized medicine.

At any rate, fortunately I don’t think I need any further medical treatment because it’s the weekend and the US private sector in its infinite glory has degreed that basically no doctors work weekends. There is one urgent care clinic in DC that maintains limited weekend hours, but—of course—my insurance plan doesn’t cover it.

The larger issue here is that while some medicine is very high-tech and cutting edge and so forth actually most medical problems in people’s lives are extremely banal. Little kids get sick all the time and their parents are worried. People fall and break bones or sprain joints and at a minimum need to be checked for concussions. People need strep throat tests and depending on how the test checks out, they may need antibiotics. And it seems to me that with this kind of thing—your banal basic health care for people with minor everyday problems—there’s an extremely strong case for UK-style direct public provision .

Update

For the record I was, as always, wearing a helmet. But I didn’t actually hit my head at all. Also — it’s hard to type with injured hands!

Politics

Kristol on Obama: ‘He is an arrogant man.’

On Fox News Sunday, the pundit roundtable continued to harp on President Obama’s initial reaction — and subsequent clarifications — to the arrest of Harvard African-American studies professor Henry Louis Gates. On Friday, Obama conceded he could have “calibrated [his] words differently” after originally stating the Cambridge police acted “stupidly.” “Everybody needs to climb down, as the president said in his briefing room comments,” NPR’s Mara Liasson said. But right-wing pundit Bill Kristol refused to let the controversy die, complaining that Obama’s apology was the sign of an “arrogant” man:

The President could have said, you know that was a stupid thing for me to say. But he didn’t say that for some reason. You know, that would be too self-deprecating. And I think he is an arrogant man. And he feels entitled to pass judgment on Cambridge cops or on pediatricians…

Watch it:

Putting aside that Kristol has made a career of sitting in judgment of others, the Cambridge cops have said they are “profoundly grateful that the president took time out of his busy schedule to attempt to resolve this situation.” In a statement, Cambridge police officers said, “It is clear to us from this conversation that the president respects police officers and the often difficult and dangerous situations we face on a daily basis.” As former McCain campaign adviser Steve Schmidt said of Kristol, “He’s in the business of ad hominem insults and criticism.” Schmidt observed, “That’s a reflection of [Kristol’s] values. He’s the Washington, D.C., talking head and glitterati.”

Climate Progress

James Fallows, Physics for Future Presidents, Al Gore, blogging journalists, and what will become of hockey sticks on an ice-free planet?

no-hockey.jpgA number of people asked me to reply to a blog post by Atlantic monthly columnist James Fallows in which he opines on a variety of climate-related subjects from Al Gore to the “Hockey Stick” graph.

Since I have known Fallows for a long time — we share mutual interests in rhetoric and the late Colonel John Boyd — I decided to zip him an e-mail, which he promptly turned into his first (of several) self-debunkings, “Climate pushback #1.”  Let me expand on a few of those dashed off points:

1)  Physics for Future Presidents. Fallows endorsed Richard Muller’s book.  Earl Killian long ago doubly debunked that book here (see “Confusing Future Presidents, Part 1” and “Part 2“).  ‘Nuff said.

2)  The Hockey Stick.  I wrote Fallows:

“The ‘hockey stick,’ was essentially vindicated by the National Academy of Sciences, and it is almost certainly correct.”  Cite here.

Few things excite the deniers more than the Hockey Stick graph because it allows them to wade deep into the analytical woods and entirely miss the forest [or is that "entirely miss the deforestation"].  I was trying to answer two separate questions quickly.  First, was the original analysis defensibly correct?  Yes (see NAS Report and RealClimate.org).  Second, were the conclusions correct [which could be true even if the analysis had flaws in it] — is the planet now as hot (or hotter) than it has been in a millenium?  Try two millennia (see “Sorry deniers, hockey stick gets longer, stronger: Earth hotter now than in past 2,000 years“).  See also J. Bradford DeLong commenting on Fallows here.

Perhaps more to the point, the Hockey Stick analysis is just the tiniest piece of our overall understanding of climate science, which is getting increasingly dire by the day.  In a few decades, not only will no one remember the Hockey-Stick controversy, many people won’t even be using hockey sticks anymore outdoors- it will just be too darn hot (see “Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year “” and that isn’t the worst case, it’s business as usual!“).

3)  Al Gore. OK, one guy does excite the deniers more than the Hockey Stick.  I wrote Fallows:

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