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Second warmest August on record and warmest June-July-August for the oceans — despite deepest solar minimum in nearly a century

NOAA reported the blockbuster news today:

The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August (Northern Hemisphere summer/Southern Hemisphere winter) season according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The preliminary analysis is based on records dating back to 1880.

NCDC scientists also reported that the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for August was second warmest on record, behind 1998.

This is almost certainly the new El Ni±o on top of the long-term warming trend (see NOAA says “El Ni±o arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10″³ “” and that means record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record).

Pretty impressive given that we’re at “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century,” according to NASA.  Go figure (see “Another long-debunked denier talking point is debunked again: Changes in the Sun are not causing global warming“).

As the AP noted about the July, which also had record ocean temps:

Breaking heat records in water is more ominous as a sign of global warming than breaking temperature marks on land, because water takes longer to heat up and does not cool off as easily as land.

“This warm water we’re seeing doesn’t just disappear next year; it’ll be around for a long time,” said climate scientist Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria in British Columbia. It takes five times more energy to warm water than land.

The warmer water “affects weather on the land,” Prof. Weaver said. “This is another yet really important indicator of the change that’s occurring.”

As revealed by the NOAA video above (via Andy Revkin),  it is getting hot pretty much everywhere, except of course over the continental United States, a small fraction of the world’s overall landmass inhabited by a large fraction of the world’s deniers, delayers, and disinformers who continue to trumpet the supposedly “cool” weather of the United States as part of their overall planetary cooling nonsense.  And that’s too bad because we need all the unmuffled warnings we can get given that humans are not like slowly boiling frogs, we are like slowly boiling brainless frogs.

Once again, the geographical distribution of the warming continues to be bad news for those worried about the permafrost permamelt, since temps even in the summer ran upwards of 3°C (5.4°F) warmer than the 1961-1990 norm over much of Siberia, as National Climatic Data Center’s figure shows:

Read more

Politics

Conrad Praises Baucus Bill Which Contains Co-Ops He Proposed After Meeting With UnitedHealth Group

conradian2

After months of legislative deliberation aimed at forging a bipartisan health care bill that began by ejecting single-payer advocates from his hearing room, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) unveiled his committee’s health care bill today with zero Republican support. Baucus’s bill — which former Cigna executive Wendell Potter has referred to as “an absolute gift” to the health insurance industry — includes no public option, an individual insurance mandate, and the creation of health care co-ops.

While a number of Democrats immediately rose in opposition to Baucus’s bill — Congressional Progressive Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) said it has “no legitimacy,” outspoken single-payer advocate Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) declared it “dead on arrival,” and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) flatly refused to support it — one Democrat, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), praised the bill today:

It’s a good product,” Conrad said on CNBC. “It is an attempt by the chairman to lay out what he thinks reflects best the discussions over this extended period of time. And I think the chairman has done a good job of capturing where the talks are at this point.” [...]

“Many of the concerns that our Republican colleagues raised have been included in the chairman’s proposal,” he said, citing provisions in the bill on abortion funding, coverage for illegal immigrants, and taxes on high-value insurance plans.

Conrad’s support for Baucus’s health care bill is unsurprising, given the fact that it includes his co-op proposal that he introduced shortly after a meeting with the nation’s largest insurer and health reform opponent UnitedHealth Group. BusinessWeek reported on the meeting last month:

UnitedHealth is generally well received in legislative circles in Washington. In late May its in-house point man on reform, Simon Stevens, hand-delivered a report to key senators detailing ways to save an estimated $540 billion in federal spending over 10 years. A week later, on June 4, Stevens accompanied UnitedHealth’s chief executive, Stephen J. Hemsley, to a meeting with Senator Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), an influential moderate member of the Senate Finance Committee. Conrad has since led an effort to create nonprofit medical cooperatives that would operate much like utility co-ops as a substitute for a federally run plan. With less heft than a proposed national plan, the state medical cooperatives would pose a far weaker competitive threat to private insurers.

Conrad’s links to the health care industry don’t stop there. For the 2010 election cycle, the health care industry has donated over half a million dollars to the senator, and his former chief of staff Robert Van Heuvelen is now a lobbyist for the American Health Care Association.

As the Huffington Post’s Roy Sekoff told Ed Schultz last night, if the Baucus bill is anything, it is health insurers getting “what they paid for with the three million dollars they’ve donated to Baucus since 2003.”

Update

Last night former governor and health care advocate Howard Dean blasted the Baucus bill while speaking at a health care town hall. He told the audience, “The Baucus bill is the worst piece of healthcare legislation I’ve seen in 30 years. In fact, it’s a $60 billion giveaway to the health insurance industry every year. It was written by healthcare lobbyists, so that’s not a surprise. It’s an outrage.”

Yglesias

Endgame

Stress surrounds in the muddy peaceful center of this town:

— I’m going to Denmark soon, going to try to avoid fathering any children.

— Chris Bowers regres his support for the 2005 effort to maintain the filibuster; I’m wrong about tons of stuff, but I definitely got this one right.

— Wages are not sticky if you work for the Miami Heat.

— I’m surprisingly influential.

— Excellent explanation of the affordability provisions in the Baucus bill.

With talk of a Pavement reunion louder than ever today, your song of the day is “Shady Lane”.

Security

Steve King: Obama ‘Threw the First Punch’ Against Joe Wilson

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) announced last night that President Obama “threw the first punch” at the “honorable” Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) who had no choice but to fight back by calling the president a liar. King’s comments were made at a reception featuring Lou Dobbs and hosted by the nativist hate group, Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), as part of their “Hold Their Feet To The Fire” annual anti-immigration lobbying campaign:

A lot of us said this health care bill is going to fund illegals. And the President said “prominent politicians are lying to you”…Well, it turns out that the Senate is going to fix the language in the health care bill to require proof of citizenship.

And a real good sign is, Luis Gutierrez — the number-one amnesty leader in the United States Congress is really ticked off at his friend and neighbor President Obama because his hope for amnesty in the health care bill is going down because of who? Joe Wilson. God bless Joe. He said what we were thinking and I don’t think there’s ever been a President who comes to the House of Representatives as a guest of the members of the House and made a declaration like he did. I mean, the President threw the first punch…Joe’s a man of honor. He’s an officer and a gentleman and he’s a patriot. And he loves and respects the Constitution and this country.

Watch it:

The President actually said:

Some of people’s concerns have grown out of bogus claims spread by those whose only agenda is to kill reform at any cost…There are also those who claim that our reform efforts would insure illegal immigrants. This, too, is false. The reforms — the reforms I’m proposing would not apply to those who are here illegally.”

Undocumented immigrants were and still are excluded from both the House and Senate health care bills. Obama didn’t name names, but Wilson, King, and other Joe-Wilson-apologists have made it abundantly clear what side of the aisle the bogus claims are coming from. In a press call today, Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) indicated that he “accept[ed] legislation that prohibited access to taxpayer-subsidized health insurance for undocumented immigrants” weeks before Obama’s speech. However, he is upset with the president not because he blocked amnesty, but rather, because the White House has proposed denying undocumented immigrants “non-government access to health care that they can use their own dollars to purchase.”

The Smithsonian Institution later acknowledged that it “made in error” in letting a hate group rent its facilities at the National Postal Museum to host the event that King spoke at.

Politics

Beck: Calling out racism is like using children as suicide bombers.

Yesterday, President Jimmy Carter caused controversy when he suggested that Rep. Joe Wilson’s (R-SC) recent outburst during President Obama’s health care address and other attacks against Obama may be motivated by racism. Today, Glenn Beck suggested on his Fox News show that Carter’s claims are equivalent to the terrorist tactic of strapping bombs to children and portrayed Carter as an ideological ally of Osama bin Laden:

BECK: Nobody is saying we’re blowing children up or anything like the Taliban. But this is the same kind of tactic being used now in America. You can’t get your agenda, so you unleash the hounds and point the fingers, and everybody is a racist.

Watch it:

Yglesias

John Kerry is Making Sense

200px-John_F._Kerry

Spencer Ackerman reports from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee:

Kerry sets out a few principles for such refinement. “First it will be the Afghans that will ultimately win or lose the struggle against the Taliban.” The United States is in a “race against time” in a region “suspicious of foreign troops.” Recognize “the decentralized nature” of Afghan politics and society. Be flexible. “What works in Mazar-e-Sharif … is very different from what works in Kandahar.” Be “humble about our ability to bring large-scale change.” Put Afghanistan in a regional context. “Permeable borders are straddled by clans, ethnic groups and militants and what happens in one country can have profound implications for what happens in others.”

Finally: “Set realistic goals. The purpose of the mission is what the president said it was” — a struggle against al-Qaeda. Kerry, who has said the United States is involved in a “global counterinsurgency,” references the commando strike earlier this week against a Somali militant with ties to al-Qaeda. The success, he said, should cause policymakers to ask “how much counterinsurgency and nation-building is required to meet a sufficient set of goals?”

I think it’s crucial that talk of it being Afghans who matter most be not just lip service in this mission. I’m enough of a not-realist that insofar as there are meaningful Afghan allies on the ground who have an achievable vision for bringing better governance to their country and protecting people from Taliban rule, I’d be inclined to help them out completely irrespective of the counterterrorism merits of providing such assistance. But there’s a world of difference between helping out an ally who’s got good ideas and just needs some help (money, airstrikes, manpower, expert advice) to execute them, and trying to conjure such an ally up out of thin air. In other words, if Hamid Karzai had a great new counterinsurgency strategy that he wanted American money and troops to assist with that would be one thing. For Stanley McChrystal to have the strategy and want to use American money and troops to try to twist Karzai into seeing things his way is another matter.

This is important because I think definitive pronouncements about a “war of necessity” that must be “won” imply a kind of unlimited and unconditional commitment to Afghanistan that winds up creating bad incentives. We have real, but limited, interests in Afghanistan and we should be trying to make sure that key Afghan actors understand that.

Economy

Sen. Isakson: The Government Should Help Rich Homeowners Buy New Houses

The Georgia Association of Realtors cheers on Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

The Georgia Association of Realtors cheers on Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

An $8,000 home-buyer’s tax credit that was included in the economic stimulus package is set to expire on November 30, but there’s a growing push in the Senate to reauthorize the credit through 2010.

When it was first being debated, we here at The Wonk Room pointed out that the credit is poorly targeted and doesn’t do much to incentivize home purchasing that wouldn’t have happened anyway. But instead of acknowledging these problems, Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) wants to not only reauthorize the credit, but double it, remove the income cap, and make buyers who already own a home eligible for it:

“I’m working the floor now to make everyone aware that the $8,000 credit sunsets on Nov. 30,” Isakson, a Georgia Republican, said in an interview today. The former real estate executive, says he is “talking to everybody and anybody”…Isakson’s legislation would extend the program through the end of 2010, almost double the credit to $15,000 and remove restrictions that prohibit individuals who already own homes or earn $75,000 — $150,000 for couples — from getting the tax break.

Isakson, who professes great concerns about the deficit the rest of the time, is advocating a needlessly expensive gift to the real estate industry, dressed up as an economic recovery aid. This credit has already cost $15 billion, which is more than twice its original estimates. Calculated Risk found that this broke down to $43,000 per additional buyer, which would increase to $30 billion, or approximately $60,000 per additional buyer, if the credit were expanded and extended.

The reason that the credit costs so much per additional house sold is because most people claiming it would have bought their house anyway. By the National Association of Realtors’ own admission, 1.8 to 2 million credits will result in only 350,000 additional sales that would not have taken place without the credit. And by removing the income cap, that incentive is reduced even further, as its unlikely that the money would push the super-rich into purchasing houses that they otherwise wouldn’t have, but they can claim the credit anyway.

Also, since Isakson’s plan opens the credit up to people who already own homes, many of the credits will be dispersed without resulting in the net purchase of a home, as people will be simply leaving one home for another. Finally, it will likely lead to unnecessarily propped up home prices, as people spend more on homes than they otherwise would have — and we all saw the effect that artificially inflated home prices can have on the economy.

In the end, extending the credit would amount to nothing more than a boon for the real estate industry, at the federal government’s expense. And with that in mind, it should come as no surprise that the real estate industry is far and away Isakson’s largest donor.

Politics

DC Madam Customer David Vitter Is Outraged By The ACORN Prostitution Scandal

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) is the self-proclaimed “most outspoken critic of ACORN.” Following the release of incriminating videos showing ACORN workers giving advice to undercover conservative activists inquiring about how to start a brothel and not get caught, Vitter and other Republicans called for investigations and audits of the organization. On Monday, he put out a press release bragging about all his anti-ACORN work over the years and commending the administration for condemning the group:

After months of beating the drum and continued news reports of criminal investigations, the president and his administration are finally starting to distance themselves from ACORN. The Census dropping ACORN as a partner is a good, common sense move. Now we must go one step further and support my simple and direct amendment, which declares that no federal funds should go ACORN.

Yet despite all his anti-ACORN activism, Vitter missed the vote that cut off federal funding for the group. A spokesman said that there was “a scheduling error” that caused the senator to miss his flight back to Washington in time for the roll call, but he still “called colleagues and urged them to support the amendment.”

Vitter’s outrage over the latest ACORN scandal seems extraordinarily hypocritical, in light of what he went through in 2007:

A woman accused of running a Washington prostitution ring placed five phone calls to David Vitter while he was a House member, including two while roll call votes were under way, according to telephone and congressional records.

Vitter, a Louisiana Republican now in the Senate, acknowledged Monday that his number was on the woman’s call list and apologized for a “very serious sin.”

Vitter, of course, kept his federal funding, and remains in the Senate.

Media

Times Change

(Wikimedia)

(Wikimedia)

To some extent there’s just a divergence in values underlying the kind of people who think political pundits should write fussy columns fretting about the age at which people get married and the kind of people who think that’s bizarre. But one thing that I find really striking about conservative interest in the increasing age of marriage is their total lack of interest in actually exploring this subject beyond a token factoid:

This is the period of life in which society’s most important social commitments take shape — commitments that produce stability, happiness and children. But the facts of life for 20-somethings are challenging. Puberty — mainly because of improved health — comes steadily sooner. Sexual activity kicks off earlier. But the average age at which people marry has grown later; it is now about 26 for women, 28 for men.

One thing I’ve noted about this before is that age at first marriage is something that varies quite a bit historically and socially. I haven’t researched this hyper-rigorously, but thanks to some quick Googling I see that in European Sexualities: 1400-1800, Katherine Crawford reports “In Florence, average age at first marriage was over 30 for men and below 18 for women. Figures for Spanish communities are similar.”

I also found this chart in a Census Bureau PowerPoint presentation that seems relevant:

marriage-1

It looks, in other words, like the big shift came not in the dread sixties or in recent times. Instead, there was a large structural shift in the mid-70s and 80s. What does that prove? I don’t know. But that’s the same period during which a lot of elements of our society and economy shifted.

In her essay “Teenage Pregnancy in England: A Historical Perspective” Hera Cook writes that starting in the 16th century in northwestern Europe “the image of women marrying in their teens with a high premium placed on virginity applied only to the aristocracy . . . [t]he average age of marriage was high by world standards, 24 years for women and 26 years for men, and 10-20% of the population did not marry.” She cites the need to save up money in order to start a new household before marrying as the cause of delayed marriage. Non-married couples were very eager not to get pregnant and lacked reliable means of contraception so “in their teens and early twenties, many men and women engaged in erotic play or petting, including kissing, embracing and hand/genital contact.” Then “age at marriage fell and birth rates rose in the decades around 1800, largely as a result of the introduction of wage labor.”

Long story short, this stuff changes all the time. And it usually changes for real reasons. Given flat wages and a rising skill premium—and declining wages for men—delayed marriage seems inevitable. Would it be better for people to live their lives in a way that completely ignores economic reality? Does Gerson want to try to re-order the economy in order to better fit his ideal of when people should get married? There’s probably a column topic in here somewhere.

Update

Chart now has its labels back. Don’t understand why that didn’t copy correctly the first time.

Health

Health Insurance Stocks Rally With Release Of Baucus Health Bill

Earlier this morning Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus (D-MT) unveiled his committee’s health care bill, which has no public option and mandates that everyone buy insurance. While Baucus has failed to garner support from any congressional Republicans and has outraged progressives, there has been one very positive response to his proposal.

Following Baucus’ announcement, HealthNet shares increased by 3%, United Health Group Inc shares rose by 2.7%, Humana Inc. grew by 2.6%, Wellpoint stock gained 1.7% and Aetna Inc rose 1.6%:

InsurerProfits

Earlier this week, ThinkProgress interviewed Wendell Potter — a former health insurance executive — who pointed out that “every time there is an article in a big newspaper questioning the success of progressives in getting a good bill passed, the stock will go up.” “The analysts/investors don’t think any good reform is going to happen, or anything that would happen that would adversely affect the insurance companies,” he said. Watch it:

In fact, since the President signaled that he is backing away from the public option, health insurance stocks have been on the rise. “Health-care investors are starting to breathe a sigh of relief as they feel the worst case could be averted,” John Sullivan, director of research at Leerink Swann, told the Wall Street Journal in August. “Health-care stocks have risen 22% since late February, when President Barack Obama began his push for an overhaul; the overall market is up 38%” between late February and August.

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