Physics World asked me to write for a special issue on Energy, Sustainability and Climate Change.  The article, “Publicize or perish,” is online and reposted below with links.

The fate of the next 50 generations may well be determined in the next few months and years. Will the US Congress agree to a shrinking cap on greenhouse-gas emissions and legislation to achieve the transformation to clean energy? If not, you can forget about a global climate deal. But even if the bill passes and a global deal is achieved, both will need to be continuously strengthened in coming years, as the increasingly worrisome science continues to inform the policy, just as in the case of the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances.

The International Scientific Congress on climate change held in Copenhagen in March, which was attended by 2000 scientists, concluded that “Recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realized.” That would mean that by 2100 there would be atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide of more than 1000 ppm, total planetary warming of 5 °C and sea-level rises probably on the high end of recent projections of 1-2 m followed by a rise of as much as 2 cm per year or more for centuries. We would also see one-third of inhabited land reaching dust bowl levels of aridity, half or more of all species becoming extinct, and the oceans increasingly becoming hot, acidic, dead zones. And if we do not change course quickly, the latest science predicts that these impacts may be irreversible for 1000 years.  [See "Intro to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water.]

In short, the fate of perhaps the next 100 billion people to walk the Earth rests with scientists (and those who understand the science) trying to communicate the dire nature of the climate problem (and the myriad solutions available now) as well as the ability of the media, the public, opinion-makers and political leaders to understand and deal with that science.

Disinformation and scientific illiteracy

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Deutsche Bank’s important new report, The Peak Oil Market: Price dynamics at the end of the oil age begins with a quote that is one of my pet peeves:

“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.”  Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister, 1962-1986.

Great quote in a peak oil report except for one tiny point — we still use a lot of stones.  In fact, given that we have 6.7 billion people on the planet, I’m quite certain that we use a lot more stones than we did in the Stone Age.  I’m almost as certain that, as the DB report says, we will be using a lot less total oil in a few decades.  So the quote doesn’t work, and the report, while dead on in many parts, is still a tad off.

SUPPLY:  We expect increasingly chronic under-investment in new oil supply capacity. We believe that concentration of remaining oil reserves into OPEC government hands will lead to under-investment in new supply and higher volatility in regulatory and fiscal regimes, and more volatile pricing. Consumer governments are adding to uncertainty with total lack of clarity on environmental legislation/regulation outcomes. That deep uncertainty in supply and demand will likely disincentivise private sector oil supply investment, exacerbating overall oil under-investment, and leading to peak oil supply within the next six years. We see market maximum capacity at 90mb/d in 2016 – just 5% above 2009….

After a final price peak implied at $175/bbl in 2016….

Hmm.  The price spike sounds right.  But I don’t think the ultimate reason will be inherently chronic underinvestment — there’s simply too much money to be made at projected oil prices for producers.  And I don’t think the reason will be uncertainty surrounding regulation — again, there’s simply too much money to be made of projected oil prices and, over at least the next decade, climate regulations will focus more on coal than oil.

The reason for the price jump is that we’re running out of the easy supply.  That’s certainly the view of all the peakers I know.  And it’s the view of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and its chief economist, Dr. Fatih Birol (see World’s top energy economist warns peak oil threatens recovery, urges immediate action: “We have to leave oil before oil leaves us”):

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