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Ken Caldeira Contradicts SuperFreaks: ‘Carbon Dioxide Is The Right Villain’

Superfreakonomics authors Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner have lashed out at physical scientists who have criticized misrepresentations of climate science in the “global cooling” chapter of their book. They disparage the Union of Concerned Scientists, whose staff includes Nobel Peace Prize-winning climate scientist Melanie Fitzpatrick, as an “environmental-advocacy group” that “pressured NPR into reading a statement critical of the book.” Dubner wrote to J. Bradford DeLong, an economist and blogger, claiming that physicist Joseph Romm’s “attack is full of deception and outright lies,” especially in its depiction of climate scientist Ken Caldeira:

His attack is full of deception and outright lies. He makes it sound as if we somehow twisted and abused Caldeira’s research; nothing could be further from the truth.

Funny, because Caldeira himself disagrees with the portrayal of his research in SuperFreakonomics.

The “SuperFreaks” claimed that Ken Caldeira’s “research tells him that carbon dioxide is not the right villain in this fight”:

SuperFreaks: "Carbon dioxide is not the real villain"

Caldeira has responded on his professional website: “Carbon dioxide is the right villain, insofar as inanimate objects can be villains”:

Caldeira: "Carbon dioxide is the right villain"

Update

Union of Concerned Scientists spokesman Aaron Huertas tells the Wonk Room:

Melanie Fitzpatrick, one of the climate scientists on the Union of Concerned Scientists’ staff, produced a rebuttal of the SuperFreakonomics chapter which points out the many ways it misrepresents climate science. Our communications team simply passed this critique on to media outlets that were planning on covering the book, including NPR. Our organization believes it is incredibly important for scientists to accurately communicate climate science to the media and the public. UCS’s criticisms are valid and NPR rightfully recognized the value of informing their listeners that the book misrepresents climate science.


Update

,Joe Romm, Scott LeMieux, Paul Krugman, Brian Dupuis, and David Roberts have more, little of which looks good for the SuperFreak Steves.


Update

,In 2007, Caldeira said “we should avoid geoengineering if possible“:

I don’t see a whole lot of political momentum toward seriously addressing the problem, just a lot of superficial things that will be ineffective. That’s because politicians have a lot to gain from appearing to address it, but little to gain from actually solving what is a multi-decade problem.

One scenario is that we won’t really do anything until a catastrophe happens, and then people will demand that we do both [transition away from fossil fuels and conduct geoengineering]. When the s– really hits the fan–when huge droughts in the Midwestern breadbasket are collapsing our agriculture system, ice sheets are melting, sea levels are rising, and we’re getting hit by Katrina-scale hurricanes–geoengineering might be an emergency backup system we could deploy.

We should avoid geoengineering if possible, but we need it in our toolbox in case of catastrophe.

Politics

Sen. Kerry: It would ‘irresponsible’ for Obama to commit more troops to Afghanistan right now.

During an interview with CNN’s John King, Sen. John Kerry argued that it would “irresponsible” to commit more troops to Afghanistan at a time when the legitimacy of the Afghanistan government is in doubt. Kerry’s comments came in the context of arguing that Obama shouldn’t be “cornered” into making a hasty decision:

It would be entirely irresponsible for the president of the United States to commit more troops to this country, when we don’t even have an election finished and know who the president is and what kind of government we’re working in with.

When our own commanding general tells us that a critical component of achieving our mission here is, in fact, good governance, and we’re living with a government that we know has to change and provide it, how could the president responsibly say, “Oh, they asked for more, sure — here they are”?

Watch it:

In an interview with CBS, Kerry similarly said that the decision on sending more forces cannot be made until the disputed election is settled. Kerry’s comments follows concerns by Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), who argued that troop increases “wouldn’t be well received” in Congress, and Rep. David Obey (D-WI), who argued that a counterinsurgency operation in Afghanistan would be “futile.”

Update

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is currently refusing to accept a power-sharing deal with the runner-up Abdullah Abdullah that would resolve the election dispute. “Under the plan, Karzai would accept the fact that when fraudulent votes are thrown out, he failed to win more than half the vote in the Aug. 20 election. In return, Abdullah, the second-place finisher, would forgo a runoff by withdrawing and endorsing a Karzai-led unity government that included some of his allies, the officials said. Karzai also would have to pursue key political reforms to root out official corruption and improve public services.”


Update

,An aide to Karzai suggested the Afghan President may resist a run-off election.

Yglesias

Government-Financed Gambling

Good piece by Graham Bowley in The New York Times:

It may come as a surprise that one of the most powerful forces driving the resurgence on Wall Street is not the banks but Washington. Many of the steps that policy makers took last year to stabilize the financial system — reducing interest rates to near zero, bolstering big banks with taxpayer money, guaranteeing billions of dollars of financial institutions’ debts — helped set the stage for this new era of Wall Street wealth.

Titans like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are making fortunes in hot areas like trading stocks and bonds, rather than in the ho-hum business of lending people money. They also are profiting by taking risks that weaker rivals are unable or unwilling to shoulder — a benefit of less competition after the failure of some investment firms last year.

The Obama administration felt that nationalizing and recapitalizing banks directly would require congress to appropriate far more money than was possible. After all, if you think “bailouts” are unpopular now, just ask what it would look like if Obama wanted hundreds of billions more. Instead, they’ve used regulatory forebearance and other techniques to put banks in a position to recapitalize themselves through trading profits. And that’s what we’re seeing here. It’s an ugly, ugly business. They’re basically gambling on the taxpayers’ dime and operating with an implicit taxpayer guarantee to cover their losses if they blow up.

Yglesias

The Power of Thinking Small

225px-olympia_snowe_official_photo_2-1

Ezra Klein asks Olympia Snowe if there are health care ideas that she likes, but that she doesn’t think are politically feasible. Something like how many people would prefer a single-payer system or the Wyden-Bennett approach but recognize that the votes in congress just aren’t there. She says:

I don’t know that I have anything in that category. I believe we should build upon the current system. We don’t want to disrupt that. I’m traditional in my approach towards reforming health care. Given the size and the amount of money we spend on it, I think it would be far too disruptive to upend the system. I think it’s preferable to build on what has worked well in our system and change the egregious practices in the insurance industry. I think the skepticism of that industry has been understandable and I share it, that’s why we really need to look at all facets to ensure they live up to certain standards and perform. But if they don’t, I think a trigger could be a powerful lever in that regard without having the government involved at the outset.

It’s probably helpful in some ways as a practical politician to let the contours of your ambition be totally circumscribed by practicality. But also a bit sad. A relatively small number of somewhat right-of-center senators have an enormous amount of practical power at this point in time. If more of them had more in the way of vision and ambition, they might really be able to get great things done. But the tendency is for them to be much more split-the-difference compromisers than big thinking radical centrists.

Yglesias

Steven Dubner Digs the Hole Deeper

As misleading as the Superfreakonomics chapter on climate change seemed to me yesterday, the email that Steven Dubner sent to Brad DeLong really compounds the sin. Dubner whines that Joe Romm “makes it sound as if we somehow twisted and abused Caldeira’s research; nothing could be further from the truth.”

Go here and read for yourself pages 184, 185, and the beginning of page 186 of Suprefreakonomics. The point, quite clearly, is to lead you to believe that “hard-charging environment activist and all-around peacenik” Ken Caldeira share the Levitt/Dubner view that (a) environmentalists are overstating the extent of the climate change problem, (b) curbing carbon dioxide emissions should not be our main tool in combatting climate change, and (c) that it’s useful to disparagingly analogize advocates of CO2 emissions curbs to those driven by religious faith rather than scientific expertise. Caldeira is called onto the floor to speak as a voice of sober-minded science against the misguided CO2-limiters.

And here’s what Caldeira himself thinks about that:

[Caldeira] has responded to many email queries of mine over the weekend so I could characterize his views accurately. He simply doesn’t believe what the Superfreaks make it seem like he believes. He writes me:

If you talk all day, and somebody picks a half dozen quotes without providing context because they want to make a provocative and controversial chapter, there is not much you can do.

One sentence about Caldeira in particular is the exact opposite of what he believes (page 184):

Yet his research tells him that carbon dioxide is not the right villain in this fight.

Levitt and Dubner didn’t run this quote by Caldeira, and when he saw a version from Myrhvold, he objected to it. But Levitt and Dubner apparently wanted to keep it very badly—it even makes their Table of Contents in the Chapter Five summary “Is carbon dioxide the wrong villain?” It fits their contrarian sensibility, but it makes no actual sense.

Caldeira aside, it would be one thing if Levitt and Dubner wanted to make the argument that they have reason to believe that most scientists are mistaken about the climate change situation. But instead they make the claim that most environmentalists are mistaken about the climate change situation and that it’s Levitt & Dubner who are channeling the views of the scientific community. But according to the Union of Concerned Scientists “the fifth chapter of the book, ‘Global Cooling,’ repeats a large number of easily discredited arguments regarding climate science, energy production, and geoengineering.”

Of course it’s possible that the UCS is mistaken about some matters. And it’s possible that Ken Caldeira is mistaken about some things. But it’s not possible that Levitt and Dubner are correctly representing the views of Caldeira or climate scientists in general. Nor is it possible that Levitt and Dubner are correct when they assert that photovoltaic cells are black (they’re usually blue) nor is it correct to say that black PV cells lead to net increases in global temperature. These mistakes. A mixture of bad science and bad reportage on a crucial public policy issue, done by a writing duo who became famous for clever statistical analysis of trivial matters.

Climate Progress

Error-riddled Superfreakonomics, Part 4: They get the economics dead wrong, too, and their response to critics is full of misrepresentations, just like their book

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_NWqd1Vf5Ixk/Sn4RCBivHjI/AAAAAAAAAj4/FPYu5cqWYFk/s320/superfreakonomics.jpgThis post looks at Nobelist Krugman’s first take-down of the single most stunning economic error in SuperFreakonomics.  I’ll also take on the authors disingenuous response to the critics (including me), “The Rumors of Our Global-Warming Denial Are Greatly Exaggerated.”

No, I don’t know any critics who called them global warming “deniers” — I don’t use the word in my critiques.  The authors are disingenuously trying to take the high ground by misrepresenting their opponents and creating strawmen, which is their modus operandi in the book.  The primary climatologist the book relies on, Ken Caldeira, said in an extended email interview with me “it is an inaccurate portrayal of me” and “misleading” in “many” places. Levitt and Dubner use the far-far-out James Lovelock as the primary scientific foil in their discussion in order to make their nonsensical views seem plausible (see “Lovelock still makes me look like Paula Abdul, warns climate war could kill nearly all of us, leaving survivors in the Stone Age“).

Still, it’s worth remembering, the book contains these two inane sentences (among many, many others as I’ve shown in Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3):

  1. “Any religion, meanwhile, has its heretics, and global warming is no exception.”
  2. “In other words:  it’s illogical to believe in a carbon-induced warming apocalypse and believe that such an apocalypse can be averted simply by curtailing new carbon emissions.”

The authors aren’t deniers per se, but the book is staggeringly anti-scientific and illogical.

And the economics, what little of it there is in the chapter, is utterly wrong.  Krugman just savaged them this morning on their biggest howler.  The Superfreaks write:

Read more

Yglesias

The Grand Inquisitor

200px-The_Brothers_Karamazov

Avi Zenilman notes that both Laura Bush and Hillary Clinton cite The Brothers Karamazov as a favorite work of literature, and both specifically cite the “Grand Inquisitor” parable. Here’s Bush:

In the dialogue with the Inquisitor, Jesus remains silent, and the chapter has two endings, the first tragic, the second a victory for Christianity.

For Mrs. Bush, there was no ambiguity. ”It’s about life, and it’s about death, and it’s about Christ,” she has said. ”I find it really reassuring.”

And here’s Clinton:

Asked to name the book that had made the biggest impact on her, she singled out “The Brothers Karamazov.” The parable of the Grand Inquisitor in Dostoyevsky’s novel, she said, speaks to the dangers of certitude.

“For a lot of reasons, that was an important part of my thinking,” Mrs. Clinton said. “One of the greatest threats we face is from people who believe they are absolutely, certainly right about everything.”

The passage in question is deliberately ambiguous. That said, I think bother former first ladies are wrong. Clinton just seems confused. There’s a lot of stuff about doubt and certainty in Karamazov but not really in this part. Bush’s point of view I don’t really understand. From a literary perspective, the whole reason the parable is famous is because the Inquisitor’s argument is, as written, pretty persuasive. And yet it’s also repugnant! At the end, Christ’s faith is unshaken, but the Inquisitor is also unmoved. It’s the reverse of reassuring; it’s a deliberate provocation meant to shake us out of our complacency. If it was reassuring, it would be boring.

Politics

Obama rips health insurance lobby as ‘deceptive,’ ‘dishonest,’ ‘bogus.’

Earlier this week, the health insurance lobby AHIP (America’s Health Insurance Plans) issued a false and dishonest report claiming that the Baucus health care bill would increase health care costs. Even the firm hired to do the analysis — PriceWaterhouseCoopers — backpedaled from the report’s conclusions. The insurance lobby’s strategy backfired as it appeared to alienate Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who voted with the Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee. But Republicans dutifully peddled the study to try to sink health reform. In his weekly address, President Obama struck back at the insurance lobby, calling them out for their deception and deceit:

This is the unsustainable path we’re on, and it’s the path the insurers want to keep us on. In fact, the insurance industry is rolling out the big guns and breaking open their massive war chest – to marshal their forces for one last fight to save the status quo. They’re filling the airwaves with deceptive and dishonest ads. They’re flooding Capitol Hill with lobbyists and campaign contributions.  And they’re funding studies designed to mislead the American people. [...]

It’s smoke and mirrors. It’s bogus. And it’s all too familiar. Every time we get close to passing reform, the insurance companies produce these phony studies as a prescription and say, “Take one of these, and call us in a decade.” Well, not this time. The fact is, the insurance industry is making this last-ditch effort to stop reform even as costs continue to rise and our health care dollars continue to be poured into their profits, bonuses, and administrative costs that do nothing to make us healthy – that often actually go toward figuring out how to avoid covering people. And they’re earning these profits and bonuses while enjoying a privileged exception from our anti-trust laws, a matter that Congress is rightfully reviewing.

Watch it:

Of course, the best way to keep insurance companies honest would be to pass a robust public health insurance plan — a provision that Obama did not talk about in his weekly address.

Yglesias

Very High Speed Rail

Japan has awesome trains and they’re could get a lot awesomer:

Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Tokai) has announced that the proposed Chuo Shinkansen maglev train line will connect Tokyo and Osaka in as little as 67 minutes.

Ah, to dream. That’s 511 kilometers.

Politics

Maddow and Olbermann respond to George H.W. Bush’s attack on them as ‘sick puppies.’

In an interview with CBS News radio yesterday, former President George H.W. Bush called assailed the tone of our national discourse. “I don’t like it. The cables (TV) have a lot to do with it,” he said, adding that MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann were partly responsible:

The Republican elder statesman said, “It’s not just the right.” He complained, “there are plenty of people on the left.”

While he said he does not believe in personal name-calling, he singled out MSNBC personalities Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow calling them “sick puppies.”

“The way they treat my son and anyone who’s opposed to their point of view is just horrible,” Mr. Bush said.

Last night, Maddow invited Olbermann, who was out sick, to call in and discuss Bush’s statements on her show. “I think that I can speak on your behalf here and say that we’re very grateful for the former president’s concern about our health,” Olbermann joked. He then noted the irony behind Bush’s attack. “I mean he’s the father of the process that took us to the place we are now. He is the man who employed Roger Ailes. He and Roger Ailes are the men who ran the Willie Horton ad against Mike Dukakis.” Watch it:

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