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Four Lessons That Should Stop Vulnerable Democrats From Cowering Away From Immigration Reform

youre_not_tryingThe Hill reports that vulnerable House and Senate Democrats want to focus more on the economy and “skip the party’s controversial legislative agenda.” Rather than safeguarding their reelection bids, these Democrats are more likely shooting themselves in the foot by deliberately sidestepping issues like immigration reform and climate change which helped Obama win the White House and put many of them in office.

In a Huffington Post column posted today, political strategist Robert Creamer offered Democrats four pieces of invaluable advice in preparation for next year’s midterm elections. Yellow-bellied Democrats should apply some of Creamer’s “lessons learned” to the immigration debate before passing up a golden opportunity to craft and pass progressive immigration reform in a Democratic-controlled Congress:

1. “First and foremost, the results show that it is critical that the Democratic message be framed in populist terms.”

Creamer explains that yesterday’s election results represent a referendum on incumbents — or candidates from the incumbent party — who failed to present themselves as populist “agents of change who will return economic power to average Americans.”

Backing away from the immigration issue isn’t going to do anything but reinforce the status quo. Democrats can and should talk about immigration reform in economic terms. For example, they could mention that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006 would have generated $66 billion in new revenue during 2007-2016 if right-wingers hadn’t blocked it. Legalizing undocumented immigrants wouldn’t just generate more tax revenue, it would also level the playing field for all workers and improve wages and working conditions in industries that currently exploit immigrant labor. Meanwhile, shutting the door on high-skilled immigrants could drive the world’s best and brightest away from contributing to and growing the US economy.

2. “Independent voters will demand that Democrats deliver on our promise of change.”

Creamer points out that independents are impatient and need to see “some serious evidence” of change. He specifically lists immigration reform as one of the battles Democrats are going to have to win in addition to passing legislation that stimulates the economy. The nation’s immigration system has been broken for a long time and Democrats could win a lot of points for being the Party that finally fixes it.

3). “Democrats must inspire the base.”

Latino and immigrant voters make up a growing and powerful voting bloc that in 2008 came out in droves to support Obama and helped flip red states blue. Latinos overwhelmingly favored Democrats in hopes of seeing major improvements in their communities. Much of the political success of the current Congress and administration hinges on its ability to deliver comprehensive immigration reform and in turn make life-long Democrats out of Latino and immigrant voters.

4. “Our not-so-secret weapon in 2010 is the Republican circular firing squad.”

The right-wing’s self-destructive tendency is especially evident in the immigration debate. Right-wing anti-immigrant demagoguery tarnished the Republican brand during the 2007 immigration debate. The GOP is now viewed amongst Latino and immigrant voters as having created a climate of undeterred public immigrant-bashing that brought nativism into the mainstream. Some Republicans are trying to clean up the Party’s image, but one doesn’t have to look very far to realize that it’s probably going to be a while before the GOP is able to purge itself of its nativist fringe. Old habits die hard, and right-wing anti-immigrant rhetoric will probably lose hardline Republicans some votes without any Democratic interference.

But Creamer warns that Democrats can’t count on it. Actions speak louder than words and despite the fact that it’s progressives who created the “deep well of desire for real change in America,” their majority is by no means guaranteed if they don’t have the guts to go after it.

Climate Progress

Breaking: Graham, Kerry, and Lieberman “will be working closely with the White House” to develop separate tripartisan climate bill to get 60 votes — with Reid’s and Boxer’s consent; Graham rebukes fellow Republicans saying, “The green economy is coming!”

In a mid-day press conference with Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) that followed a meeting with Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) said:

We think we have a good team here to help create a dual track which we want to emphasize is done with the full consent and support of Sen. Boxer and of other senators involved in this process including the Majority Leader, Harry Reid.  We will be working very, very closely with the administration and fully respectful of all of the efforts made by each individual committee with jurisdiction in this area. and there are six of them. I happen to be chair of one. But there are five others. And they’re all equally important in their contributions to this.

Our effort is to try to reach out to broaden the base of support beyond the six committees of jurisdiction. And we’re going to do that working very closely with the chairs of those committees as well as with members across the Senate. The key here is to really negotiate once in a sense, not negotiate with ourselves and not negotiate just in the Senate and then not have the White House also at the table.

So we just completed a meeting with Secretary Chu, talking about his department’s parameters that might and might not be acceptable with respect to this legislation. We’re meeting this afternoon, the three of us, with Secretary Salazar and with Carol Browner who, as we all know, is the point person for the White House on this topic. We will be working closely with the White House over the course of the next weeks with a few to trying to pull together what ultimately could be presented to Sen. Reid and the leadership as a piece of legislation that we hope could get the 60 votes necessary to pass or more, and we would hope it would be more.

Brad Johnson at Wonk Room has Graham’s remarkable remarks and this video:

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Politics

Michael Steele Takes On Palin, Limbaugh: ‘Your Opinion Really Doesn’t Matter Much’

RNC Chairman Michael Steele endorsed moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R-NY) in the NY-23 special election before national conservative leaders — like Dick Armey, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Sarah Palin — forced Scozzafava out in favor of right-wing candidate Doug Hoffman. Following Hoffman’s defeat, Steele struck back at firebrands within his party, telling reporters earlier today that the opinion of conservative outsiders “really doesn’t matter much”:

STEELE: If you don’t live in the district, don’t vote there, your opinion really doesn’t matter much.

Later this afternoon, CNN host Wolf Blitzer asked Steele specifically about outsiders like Palin and Limbaugh, who loudly pushed the nominated Republican Scozzafava out of the race. Steele affirmed that he “hopes” those right-wing voices do not continue to meddle in Republican primaries:

BLITZER: Are you worried Mr. Chairman that Sarah Palin for example, or Rush Limbaugh or others in the conservative movement are going to go into some of these contests and go after the more moderate Republicans who might actually have a better chance at winning in the general election.

STEELE: Well, I hope not. [...] So I’m hoping not, and that’s not in their nature.

Watch it:

Of course, right-wing leaders are actually emboldened by their successful purging of Scozzafava, even despite the results of the election yesterday. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is actively backing Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, a friend of the anti-Obama tea party movement, against more moderate Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race. DeMint explained that DeVore will “stand against his own party leaders” and that conservatives need to continue to “shake up the Republican Party.”

Yglesias

Endgame

I want to twist the knife a bit deeper:

— German deer still stuck in the Cold War.

— Sasha Vujacic dodges the tough questions about dating Maria Sharapova.

— Will Sarah Palin help Mark Kirk prove to Illinois tea partiers that he’s one of them?

— All about “Af-Pak hands”.

— Fed planning to keep expansionary monetary policy in place. Good.

— Sending civilians into a war zone is very expensive.

I heard Cold Cave’s “Love Comes Closer” on WOXY earlier today and it strongly reminded me of some other song, but I can’t quite put my finger on it. Good song.

Health

Association Health Plans Have History Of Insolvency And Fraud — So Why Are Republicans Expanding Them?

Republicans have embraced health association plans as a way to help self-employed people and small businesses maximize affordability of coverage by using their leverage as a large group to negotiate lower premiums.

The Republicans’ alternative health care plan amends the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 — the federal legislation that governs employer-sponsored self-insured health policies — to allow the federal government to certify and regulate the solvency and adequacy of association plans. Under their legislation, small businesses can come together, by industry or trade, and form health plan through which they can purchase coverage for their employees.

But while the plans goals are laudable, in reality, associations could avoid covering sicker businesses by excluding certain key conditions from coverage and designing policies that only attract healthier applicants. According to the Republican bill, the association would not be required to offer a minimum benefits package and could set “contribution rates based on claims experience of the plan,” crowding employers whose employees actually use their insurance, out of coverage.

The “whole bill is set up to build fly-by-night associations. I run it for a couple of years, I shut it down,” Georgetown professor Karen Pollitz explained in a conversation with the Wonk Room. “I cover these 100 people this year. Next year, I have a different 100 members.” Indeed, between 2001 and 2003, four long-standing self-insured association health care plans became insolvent, “leaving $48 million in medical claims unpaid and 66,000 people and small businesses without insurance.” Health experts argue that association health care plans are governed by “licensing requirements that are often less stringent than those imposed on traditional insurers” and are “at far greater risk of becoming insolvent when claims suddenly or unexpectedly exceed their ability to pay them.”

The Republican legislation establishes new solvency and reserve requirements but it outsources any enforcement of self-insured or national association plans to the federal Department of Labor, “which lacks the tools, resources, and culture to protect businesses against fraud.” One report concluded that the “history of scams involving associations demonstrates that when the federal government has had sole oversight authority, fraud flourished with unscrupulous individuals leaving businesses and their workers without health coverage and with millions of dollars in unpaid medical bills.”

The legislation requires association health care plans to contribute to an ‘Association Health Plan Fund’ that would pay out outstanding claims in cases of insolvency, but leaves the federal government on the hook if the money in the fund runs out. “[I]f the Secretary determines that there is a reasonable expectation that” claims would “would not be satisfied by reason of termination of such coverage. The Secretary shall, to the extent provided in advance in appropriation Acts, pay such amounts so determined to the insurer designated by the Secretary,” the bill states on page 73.

Yglesias

Bloomberg’s Robostrategy

180px-TOPIO_2.0

Common sense is that while money matters in politics, it’s hard to just bury a viable candidate under a pile of cash because of diminishing returns. But Mark Schmitt brings us this interesting tale of Michael Bloomberg’s unsuccessful efforts to find a way around this problem:

As for diminishing returns, it’s easy to see why more money doesn’t matter — there’s only so much you can do. Once people have seen your TV ads or heard your radio ads a dozen times, another two dozen are only going to annoy them. Bloomberg seems to have engaged in a very creative experiment to see whether he could defeat the law of diminishing returns — rather than mere robo-calls, his campaign came up with a scheme of precisely targeted calls, so that you might get a recorded call from your own building manager, or a call precisely keyed to language — older immigrant voters might get a call in their language, younger voters in English with an accent!

It’s brilliant, and expensive, but robo-calls don’t work (another fact proven by Don Green!) and so it should come as no surprise that micro-targetted robo-calls don’t work either. The only thing Bloomberg’s $85 million campaign did was keep a lot of campaign consultants off the streets.

Back in the summer of 2001, I was interning for Bradley Tusk (at the time Chuck Schumer’s communications director) who managed Bloomberg’s campaign and he’s definitely a clever guy*. But the fact that robo-calls don’t work seems like something that professional political operatives are in denial about.

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Politics

Conservatives Mock 72-Hour Window That They Requested To Review Health Care Reform Legislation

In September, Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) organized a discharge petition in order to force a vote on a resolution that would “require that legislation and conference reports be available on the Internet for 72-hours before consideration by the House.” “It’s just common sense: Americans should be allowed to read the text of major bills before Congress votes on them,” said House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH).

The House Democratic leadership eventually agreed to post health care legislation online for 72-hours before bringing it up for a vote. But once they got what they wanted, conservatives started to complain that 72-hours wasn’t enough. “They are only giving you 72-hours to read it,” said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) on Glenn Beck’s radio show today. “So they obviously are embarrassed of their own bill.”

On WorldNetDaily’s radio show today, Rep. John Linder (R-GA) claimed that Democrats were only including the 72-hour waiting period because they needed more time to twist arms for votes:

LINDER: I would not be surprised if they sent us home Friday and bring us back a week or so later to see if they can get the votes because I do not believe they have the votes now.

HOST: What makes you think that?

LINDER: If they had the votes, they’d have voted on it already. They would not have worried about the 72-hours. That 72-hours is for them to beat up their own members, not for the public to read the bill. If they had those votes, they’d cram it down now and they clearly do not.

Listen here:

Despite their current complaints about the 72-hour time period, both Bachmann and Linder signed the discharge petition seeking the 72-hours.

Climate Progress

Solar power when the sun goes down — with help from United Technologies

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/images/parabolic_troughs.jpg

Concentrated solar thermal with storage (aka solar baseload) remains “The technology that will save humanity.”  And we are seeing more and more plants in various phases of construction (see “World’s largest solar plant with thermal storage to be built in Arizona “” total of 8500 MW of this core climate solution planned for 2014 in U.S. alone“).

The easiest way to deal with the intermittency of the sun is cheap storage “” and thermal storage is much cheaper and has a much higher round-trip efficiency than electric storage.  The ability to provide power reliably throughout the day and evening in key locations around the world (including China and India) is why CSP delivers 3 of the 12 – 14 wedges needed for “the full global warming solution.”

Now “A Santa Monica, Calif., company called SolarReserve has taken a step toward making that a reality, filing an application with California regulators to build a 150-megawatt solar farm that will store seven hours’ worth of the sun’s energy in the form of molten salt,” as the NYT‘s Green Inc. reports today.  “Heat from the salt can be released when it’s cloudy or at night to create steam that drives an electricity-generating turbine.”  And SolarReserve has a big-time Fortune 50 clean energy partner:

United Technologies has licensed the technology to SolarReserve and will guarantee its performance “” a crucial advantage for the startup when it seeks financing from skittish bankers to build the Rice solar farm.

Below is an artist’s rendering of such a plant that focuses thousands of mirrors on millions of gallons of liquefied salt:

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Security

Arguments That Don’t Get Better With Time

Defending recent suggestions that National Iranian American Council director Trita Parsi is an instrument of Iran, Reihan Salaam doubles down on one of the hoariest of hoary old conservative foreign policy arguments:

[W]hile Parsi is undoubtedly a believer in democratic liberalism who wants to see Iran radically reform its institutions, he objectively serves Iranian interests insofar as he discourages Western efforts to exert pressure on the regime. This doesn’t make Parsi a bad person. Plenty of Iranian dissidents believe that a democratic Iran should have a nuclear deterrent. Plenty want a denuclearized Iran, yet believe that Western pressure amounts to a kind of imperialism that should be actively resisted. This isn’t that complicated.

Iran doesn’t have an actual AIPAC. Instead, there is a loose network of policy scholars, activists, think tanks, civil servants, etc., who strongly oppose a forward-leaning U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf for a wide, sometimes overlapping variety of reasons. Some of these people have a real financial interest in a better relationship between Washington and Qom [sic], but most don’t. On some issues, members of this loose network get important things right. A lot of realists have raised important questions about the efficacy of sanctions, and they are right to do so. But it’s also true that these voices help today’s Iran. The Iranians among them have added credibility.

Remember when people who opposed the Iraq war — that is, the people who turned out to be right — were accused of being “objectively pro-Saddam“? They didn’t want the U.S. to invade Iraq, and neither did Saddam!

By this reasoning, those in favor of the Iraq war — that is, those who supported what I guess Reihan defines as “a forward-leaning U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf” — “objectively served Iran’s interests” insofar as the war removed Iran’s most hated foe and produced an Iraqi government dominated by Iran’s Shia Islamist clients. This isn’t that complicated. But it is very, very silly.

What is complicated, however, is answering the question of whose interests in Iran, exactly, would be served by further sanctions, or undermined by continued engagement. Reihan writes about “Iran” as if it were one group of people with one set of interests, but of course this is not the case, especially post-June 12.

For example, it’s pretty clear that the gasoline sanctions bill currently wending its way through Congress would hurt the Iranian people while benefiting the Revolutionary Guardsmen who control large portions of the Iranian black market. Does this make all of those who voted for and support the bill objectively pro-IRGC? I doubt anyone would say so. “Objectively pro-Evildoer X” arguments tend to apply only to those who don’t believe that “a forward-leaning U.S. policy” has to necessarily entail unilateral escalation and confrontation.

Yglesias

Voters Reject Anti-Government TABOR Proposals in Maine and Washington

An excellent point from Kristina Wilfore who observes that if you want a decent test of the “tea party” movement you could do worse than to look at TABOR proposals that would put arbitrary caps on state government spending and force meaningful reductions in the size of government. Two such proposals were on the ballot last night in Washington and Maine and they lost:

A central tenant of the right-wing agenda has been rejected with the defeat of TABOR (known deceptively as the “taxpayer bill of rights”) in these two states – states that are diverse from each other in almost all respects. Maine’s measure went down with a resounding defeat, 60% to 40%, while Washington’s campaign came from behind with a 55% to 45% rebuff.

A few weeks ago, conservative columnist and tea party champion John Fund wrote in the WSJ that: “If voters in Maine or Washington state pass a taxpayer bill of rights, it will be a clear sign that even in blue states the public is coming to believe that government spending is out of control and that elected officials can no longer be trusted to rein it in. That’s a message that will likely reverberate in Congress regardless of who wins in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races.”

Iris Lav from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities notes that “by rejecting TABOR, officially Question 4 in Maine and I-1033 in Washington, voters have helped these states preserve needed public services and improve the business climate.”

It’s also worth emphasizing that the reason radical budget-cutters have started turning to TABOR ballot initiatives to get their way is that even politicians who like to talk about cutting government in the abstract don’t actually want to take responsibility for specific cuts. That’s why Bob McDonnell made sure to stay nice and vague about what he’ll actually do once he takes over in Virginia.

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